Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has been experiencing fluctuations, with recent increases in wholesale prices, indicating a potential market adjustment and the company's intervention to stabilize prices [1][5][10]. Price Trends - As of June 28, 2025, the wholesale price for 25-year Feitian Moutai (53 degrees/500ml) is reported at 1920 RMB per bottle, an increase of 50 RMB from the previous day [1][2]. - The prices for various Moutai products have shown a general upward trend, with 24-year Feitian Moutai (original box) at 1920 RMB, and 23-year Feitian Moutai (original box) at 2010 RMB, both reflecting slight increases [1][2]. - However, some products, such as Xunfeng Feitian, have seen price declines, indicating a mixed market response [3]. Market Dynamics - The price adjustments are attributed to a combination of factors, including pressure on consumption, high inventory levels among distributors, and a shift in consumer preferences towards healthier options [8][10]. - The company has been proactive in managing supply, aiming for a 9% growth target while addressing market imbalances caused by seasonal demand fluctuations [10][11]. Company Strategy - Moutai has engaged in discussions with major e-commerce platforms like JD and Alibaba to enhance brand presence and manage pricing strategies effectively [6][10]. - The company is focusing on maintaining market order by limiting supply to certain channels and increasing market surveillance to prevent price violations [5][10]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current price adjustments may reshape the liquor consumption landscape, influenced by broader economic and demographic trends [8][10]. - Moutai's strategic measures, including inventory management and targeted marketing, are expected to support its market position and potentially lead to further share expansion [11].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai, once considered a "hard currency," has seen a significant decline, with retail prices dropping to as low as 1,840 yuan per bottle, causing distress among resellers who had stockpiled the product [1][3][32] Group 1: Price Decline - Moutai's wholesale price has fallen from 2,500 yuan per bottle at the beginning of the year to 2,050 yuan by mid-June, with retail prices dropping below 2,000 yuan [3][10] - The current market is characterized by rapid price fluctuations, with prices changing multiple times a day, creating a sense of urgency among distributors to clear their inventory [10][19] - The decline in prices is attributed to a staggering inventory of approximately 700 million bottles, leading to a loss of scarcity and subsequent price drops [15][21] Group 2: Changing Consumer Behavior - The traditional consumer base for Moutai, primarily business professionals over 40, is being replaced by younger generations who prefer lower-alcohol beverages and have different consumption habits [17][21] - A recent regulation prohibiting alcohol consumption at official events has severely impacted Moutai's sales, particularly in the business gifting sector [19][21] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing a shift from individual resellers to professional teams with substantial resources and logistics capabilities, indicating a transformation in the resale landscape [23][29] - Despite the turmoil in the resale market, the production in Moutai's hometown, Renhuai, remains stable, with local businesses continuing to thrive [25][27] Group 4: Future Outlook - The current price drop raises questions about whether this is a temporary setback or a long-term trend, particularly affecting resellers who are facing significant financial losses [32][33]

Group 1 - The price of Moutai has significantly dropped, with the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai falling to 2050 yuan per box and individual bottles dropping below 2000 yuan, leading to substantial losses for speculators [3][4] - Many speculators are facing severe financial distress, with some losing luxury cars or entire apartments due to the plummeting prices, indicating a shift from profit-making to significant losses in the Moutai trading market [3][4] - The market sentiment among dealers has turned pessimistic, with prices fluctuating throughout the day, causing them to be cautious about stockpiling inventory [4][6] Group 2 - In Moutai Town, the production of liquor continues unaffected by the market turmoil, with local distilleries maintaining a steady operation and focusing on quality, suggesting a long-term perspective on the industry [6][8] - The local economy remains robust, with many workers in the liquor industry earning competitive salaries, indicating a strong foundation for the Moutai industry despite external market pressures [8][10] - The shift in market dynamics has led to the emergence of professional teams with substantial capital and logistics capabilities, replacing individual speculators, which reflects a more organized approach to navigating the market [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The wholesale prices of Moutai have significantly decreased, with key products breaking the psychological price barrier of 2000 yuan per bottle, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics and consumer behavior [1][2][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of June 15, the wholesale price of 25-year Moutai is 1960 yuan per bottle, remaining stable, while the original box price is 1990 yuan, down by 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. - The 24-year Moutai has seen a drop in price, with the wholesale price for the original box at 2075 yuan, unchanged, and the scattered bottle price at 1990 yuan, down by 20 yuan [1]. - The price of the "Snake Moutai" has dropped to 2300 yuan per bottle, marking a decline of over 39% from its peak price of 3800 yuan [1]. - The recently launched Shengle Moutai is priced at 2350 yuan per bottle, down 100 yuan, reflecting a 30% decrease from its high of 3400 yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The retail prices of Moutai are also declining, with some online platforms offering prices as low as 1840 yuan per bottle, indicating a significant drop in consumer demand during the off-peak season [2]. - The upcoming "6·18" sales event is expected to further pressure Moutai prices, with reports of promotional offers significantly undercutting traditional pricing [2]. - The increase in non-standard product offerings and continuous market supply are internal factors contributing to the decline in Moutai's wholesale prices [3]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Analysts suggest that the changing age demographics of consumers are influencing Moutai's pricing, as younger consumers exhibit lower demand for high-end liquor, prompting a price adjustment to align with market realities [4]. - The overall market position of Moutai remains strong, but the price adjustments reflect a necessary response to evolving consumer preferences and behaviors [4].

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is facing challenges due to conflicts between traditional offline distribution models and e-commerce sales, particularly highlighted during the "618" promotional event, where low-price promotions have re-emerged, raising concerns about the impact on pricing structures and market dynamics [1][2][6]. Group 1: E-commerce Impact - E-commerce platforms have initiated low-price promotions for premium liquor, with prices for 53-degree Feitian Moutai dropping below 2000 yuan per bottle, which is lower than the market average [1]. - The intensity of this year's "618" promotions is less than in previous years, with fewer participants and less aggressive discounting, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [2][6]. - The control over pricing by liquor companies has weakened as e-commerce platforms have started to establish their own trading companies, complicating the ability of liquor companies to manage pricing effectively [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The overall performance of major liquor companies is expected to decline starting from the second half of 2024 into the first quarter of 2025, influenced by a sluggish consumption market and proactive measures taken by companies to manage inventory [6]. - Some second and third-tier liquor companies are struggling, with reports of significant price reductions online compared to offline sales, indicating a potential oversupply or desperate measures to stimulate sales [6][7]. - The current market environment is characterized by intense competition and slow sales, leading to innovative but concerning practices such as selling opened or discounted products to stimulate consumption [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts express concerns about the long-term market outlook, suggesting that the current challenges may persist for several years, with a potential market recovery taking 3 to 5 years [7][8]. - Discussions among liquor companies at recent earnings meetings have shifted focus towards consumer behavior changes, internationalization, and channel reforms, with little emphasis on addressing e-commerce challenges [8].