Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper rebounded slightly, with a decrease in open interest, spot premium, and a weakening basis. The cost - support logic for copper prices due to tight copper ore supply remains. The supply of refined copper in China may slow down, and the demand for copper may show a trend of weakening external demand, short - term weak domestic demand, and long - term improvement. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 78,580 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 9,731 dollars/ton, up 44 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was 20 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 159,866 lots, down 3,692 lots. The top 20 long positions in Shanghai copper futures were 3,657 lots, down 4,571 lots. The LME copper inventory was 139,575 tons, down 2,175 tons; the SHFE inventory of cathode copper was 72,543 tons, down 880 tons; the SHFE warrant of cathode copper was 18,767 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 78,615 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 78,650 yuan/ton, up 285 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 62 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 50.5 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 35 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) was - 52.73 dollars/ton, down 3.48 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 42.09 dollars/kiloton, up 0.54 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 69,000 yuan/metal ton, up 280 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 69,700 yuan/metal ton, up 280 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the South was 900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in the North, it was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 1.302 billion tons, up 480,000 tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of scrap copper (1 bright copper wire) in Shanghai was 54,840 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of scrap copper (2 copper, 94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of sulfuric acid (98%) of Jiangxi Copper was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 2.2145 billion tons, up 1.185 billion tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment was 291.1 billion yuan, up 87.114 billion yuan. The cumulative real estate development investment was 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 10.56%, down 0.07%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.16%, up 0.04%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 10.51%, down 0.006%; the put - call ratio of at - the - money options was 1.17, down 0.026 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points three times in a row starting in September, and may cut rates by 50 basis points if the unemployment rate rises further. San Francisco Fed President Daly said that the time for interest rate cuts is approaching. The negative impact of the US tariff policy is emerging, and the US economy shows multiple weak signals. Experts and institutions expect the new social financing in July to increase year - on - year. The central bank may cut interest rates and reserve requirements around the end of the third quarter. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to issue a work plan for stabilizing growth in industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment. The penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market in the first half of the year reached 44.3%. It is expected that the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in July will be 1.18 million, with a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. In August, the supply of new houses decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated with increased trading volume, a premium on the spot market, and a strengthening basis. Fundamentally, the processing fee for copper concentrates remained low, with a tight supply of international concentrates. In China, the port inventory of copper concentrates decreased, and smelters' demand for concentrates increased. Regarding supply, although the domestic port inventory decreased, it remained at a sufficient level. With the easing of relations with the US, scrap copper imports were expected to supplement, and smelters' raw materials were temporarily sufficient, with their production willingness improving. In terms of imports and exports, the domestic import window opened, and with the increase in the shipment volume of copper ores and copper from Chile to China, the overall domestic supply was expected to show a slight increase after arrival. On the demand side, affected by the off - season of consumption, the overall downstream production declined to varying degrees. The relatively high domestic copper price might dampen downstream purchasing sentiment, weakening the trading sentiment in the spot market and slightly increasing domestic inventory. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper might be in a situation of sufficient supply and slightly subdued demand. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 0.93, a decrease of 0.0053 from the previous period, and the implied volatility slightly increased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, both lines were above the 0 - axis, the DIF crossed below the DEA, and the green bars expanded. The operation suggestion was to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract was 78,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 9,750 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 43 US dollars. The inter - month spread of the main contract was 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The position volume of the Shanghai copper main contract was 208,685 lots, an increase of 6,379 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was 451 lots, an increase of 3,857 lots. The LME copper inventory was 122,400 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons. The SHFE inventory of cathode copper was 107,404 tons, an increase of 1,613 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants were 71,725 tons, an increase of 3,925 tons. The SHFE warehouse receipts of cathode copper were 33,746 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons. [2] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 79,275 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market 1 copper spot price was 79,295 yuan/ton, an increase of 420 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price was 67 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium was 44 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was 395 yuan/ton, an increase of 430 yuan. The LME copper cash - 3 spread was 95.78 US dollars/ton, an increase of 25.94 US dollars. [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates was 292.44 million tons, an increase of 53.13 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 43.29 US dollars/thousand tons, an increase of 0.27 US dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 69,150 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 69,850 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the South was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the North, it was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 4. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 125.40 million tons, an increase of 0.60 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 427,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 55,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 570 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,150 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 5. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 208.10 million tons, a decrease of 4.42 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 140.816 billion yuan, an increase of 45.195 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 2,772.957 billion yuan, an increase of 782.54 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,167 million pieces, a decrease of 30,199.90 pieces. [2] 6. Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 9.40%, a decrease of 0.64 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.54%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month was 12.86%, an increase of 0.0028 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 0.93, a decrease of 0.0053. [2] 7. Industry News - New York Fed survey data showed that in May, US consumers' future inflation expectations declined across the board for the first time since 2024, with the one - year inflation expectation dropping from 3.6% in April to 3.2%. The three - year and five - year inflation expectations also decreased. National Bureau of Statistics data showed that in May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.6% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. The PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, the same as the previous month, and 3.3% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. Customs data showed that in the first five months of this year, China's exports of equipment manufacturing products reached 6.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 58.3% of the total export value. The growth rates of sub - sectors such as electric vehicles and industrial robots were significant, at 19% and 55.4% respectively. The contribution rate of the equipment manufacturing industry to the overall export growth was 73%, reaching 76.9% in May. Passenger Car Association data showed that in May, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.96 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% and a month - on - month increase of 10%. From January to May, the cumulative retail sales were 8.934 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. In May, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger car market were 1.021 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 28.2% and a month - on - month increase of 12.1%. From January to May, the cumulative retail sales were 4.351 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 34.1%. The China Index Academy stated that currently, land - acquiring enterprises were still mainly state - owned enterprises, continuing the trend since 2022. From the sales side, real - estate enterprises' sales were still in a downward trend, and the pressure on the sales side might continue to be transmitted to the investment side. Therefore, the substantial improvement of private real - estate enterprises' confidence required the recovery of sales. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may present a situation of sufficient supply and slightly subdued demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,910 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,719 dollars/ton, up 26 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 120 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 202,306 lots, down 1,812 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures traders in Shanghai copper is - 3,406 lots, down 6,378 lots. The LME copper inventory is 132,400 tons, down 5,600 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 107,404 tons, up 1,613 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 67,800 tons, down 10,000 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 34,242 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 copper and Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper is 78,875 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 70 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 40.5 dollars/ton, up 3.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 35 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 69.84 dollars/ton, down 23.31 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 292.44 million tons, up 53.13 million tons. The copper smelter's TC is - 43.29 dollars/kiloton, up 0.27 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 69,170 yuan/metal ton, up 510 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 69,870 yuan/metal ton, up 510 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north, it is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 125.4 million tons, up 0.6 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 427,000 tons, down 13,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,540 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,150 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 570 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 208.1 million tons, down 4.42 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 140.816 billion yuan, up 45.195 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 2772.957 billion yuan, up 782.54 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,167 million pieces, down 30,199.9 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.04%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.3%, down 0.06%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money options is 12.58%, up 0.0117%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 0.94, up 0.1413 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Fed officials have different views on interest rates and bank regulations. The negotiation on the price commitment of the China - EU electric vehicle case is in the final stage. US employment growth slowed in May, and Trump pressured the Fed to cut interest rates. US imports decreased in April. The global manufacturing PMI in May was 49.2%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, still in the contraction range [2]. 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - Shanghai copper's main contract fluctuated strongly, with reduced open interest, spot discount, and strengthening basis. In the US, employment growth slowed, which may give the Fed room to postpone interest rate cuts. In China, infrastructure investment has been improving, but the momentum for expanding effective investment needs to be fully released. The processing fee of copper concentrates remains low, and the international supply of concentrates is tight. Although the domestic port inventory has decreased, it is still sufficient, and the import of scrap copper is expected to increase. The domestic import window has opened, and the supply is expected to increase slightly. Due to the off - season of consumption, the downstream operating rate has declined, and the spot market trading sentiment has weakened, with a slight increase in domestic inventory. The option market sentiment is gradually balanced, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are converging [2].