主要观点 若中长期通胀预期明显上行，今年确实难降息，极端情况甚至需加息。许多联 储研究均表明，通胀预期脱锚不是与就业下行对等的风险，而是系统性、持久 且代价更高的威胁。虽然双重使命权衡非常复杂，但保持通胀预期锚定是首要 目标，在脱锚风险上升时，政策或需保持鹰派立场，即便存在短期就业的代价。 若在高油价冲击之下，中长期通胀预期保持基本平稳，今年美联储可能仍需要 降息；油价越高、持续时间越长，需要的降息幅度可能越大。高油价持续越久， 对美国居民的生活成本和消费冲击可能越大。两个直观的定量参考视角： 证 券 研 究 报 告 其一，油价上涨对消费的负面影响。微观层面，据美国汽车协会调查，汽油零 售价突破 4 美金/加仑（对应布油价约 110 美金/桶以上）后，64%的受访者会 减少开车（首要选择）、合并繁琐出行、减少购物/餐饮等。宏观层面，汽油零 售价上涨 10%，拖累汽油消费量下降约 2-3%，进而拖累消费约 0.06 个百分 点，若考虑汽油名义支出上升对其他消费的挤出效应，拖累或更大。相比 2 月 底，3 月 16 日当周，汽油零售价已上涨约 43%（冲突持续，仍可能继续上涨）。 第二，油价大涨，市场波动率攀升、 ...

Group 1 - Nomura Securities indicates that the US dollar may face significant downward pressure by 2026 due to factors such as portfolio adjustments, rising foreign exchange hedging risks, and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] - UBS economists note that discussions regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate hikes have shifted from "if" to "when," with expectations moving forward significantly due to rising labor costs and domestic demand [2] - Barclays strategists highlight that the current market for US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) does not adequately price in positive inflation risk premiums, suggesting a long position in 10-year breakeven inflation rates as a reasonable medium to long-term strategy [1] Group 2 - Fitch Ratings states that despite rising debt from infrastructure investments, a neutral macro environment, a robust housing market, and a strong labor market will support the stability of Australia's local government finances [3] - Mizuho Securities warns that rising interest rates could significantly increase the debt servicing costs for the UK and Japan, as both countries adjust their debt structures to rely more on short-term borrowing [2] - Nomura analysts suggest that the Bank of Korea may have ended its rate-cutting cycle, with GDP growth expected to reach 2.3% in 2026, driven by improved economic prospects and rising inflation [2]