Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.40% on February 2, resulting in a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan for the day [3][4]. - The interbank market remains stable, with the weighted average rate of DR001 rising over 3 basis points to approximately 1.36% [5][6]. - The latest one-year interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) traded around 1.60%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [7][8]. Bond Market - The yield on major interbank bonds showed mixed movements, with the 30-year contract rising by 0.18%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts fell by 0.03% and 0.02%, respectively [12]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 300 billion yuan in 28-day discount treasury bonds on February 3 [17]. - Agricultural Development Bank will issue up to 100 billion yuan in financial bonds on February 3 [17]. Regulatory Updates - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced new tax deduction measures for long-term assets, effective from January 1, 2026 [13]. - The central government approved a spatial coordination plan for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban system, aiming to enhance the capital's influence and optimize urban structure [13]. Risk Monitoring - Recent non-standard asset risks in urban investment include several defaults and risk alerts related to various investment plans and trust products [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a shift in the interbank major bond yields from an increase to a decrease on January 30 [1] Group 2 - The yield of the 10-year government bond (250016) decreased by 0.3 basis points, now at 1.812% [1] - The yield of the 10-year policy bank bond (250215) decreased by 0.15 basis points, now at 1.956% [1] - The yield of the 30-year government bond (2500006) decreased by 0.2 basis points, now at 2.252% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The interbank major bond yields have mostly weakened, with specific increases noted in various government bonds [1] Group 1: Bond Yield Changes - The 10-year "25附息国债22" yield increased by 0.15 basis points to 1.817% [1] - The same maturity "25国开15" yield rose by 0.1 basis points to 1.946% [1] - The 30-year "25超长特别国债06" yield went up by 0.2 basis points to 2.244% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The liquidity of funds during the tax period fluctuated moderately, and the yields of interest - rate bonds continued to decline. The yields of most maturities of treasury bonds and CDB bonds decreased this week, with the 1 - year treasury bond yield being an exception, which increased by 4bp [1][2] - The domestic bond market showed a good performance after getting rid of the weak start of the year, but the further downward space of yields was limited due to stock market disturbances. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds remained stable at around 1.8%, and it was expected that it would be difficult to decline further before the Spring Festival. The stock market presented a differentiated pattern [7] - Overseas bond markets were mainly affected by the intensified geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. Although the probability of a war against Iran was low, the risk of miscalculation among parties still existed. The Fed's interest - rate decision in the next week was relatively certain, and the market generally expected no interest - rate cut [7] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Fund Liquidity - This week, DR007 ranged from 1.48% to 1.51%, and DR001 ranged from 1.32% to 1.42%. The central value changed little compared with the previous week, and the fluctuation of DR007 decreased [1] 3.2 Yield Changes of Interest - rate Bonds - Treasury bonds: The 1 - year yield increased by 4bp, the 3 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year yields decreased by 1bp each, and the 7 - year yield decreased by 3bp [2][3] - CDB bonds: The 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year yields decreased by 1bp, 1bp, 3bp, 3bp, and 5bp respectively [2][3] 3.3 Term Spread Changes - On January 23, the 10 - 1Y term spread of treasury bonds was 54.79bp, and that of CDB bonds was 39.76bp, narrowing by 5.21bp and 2.34bp respectively compared with January 16 [5] 3.4 Market Conditions at Home and Abroad - Domestic: The bond market performed well, but the stock market affected the downward space of bond yields. The stock market was differentiated, with large and medium - cap stocks weakening and small - cap stocks rising [7] - Overseas: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East affected overseas bond markets. The Fed's interest - rate decision was relatively certain, with no expected interest - rate cut [7]

Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 210.2 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on January 22, with a net injection of 30.9 billion yuan after accounting for 179.3 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing on the same day [1]. Funding Conditions - The interbank market saw a slight tightening in funding as the D R001 weighted average interest rate rose over 9 basis points to around 1.41%. Overnight rates in the anonymous click (X-repo) system also increased to 1.52%, with limited supply [3]. - Non-bank institutions borrowing against pledged credit bonds saw overnight rates around 1.60%, higher than the previous day. January is a significant tax payment month, leading to reduced liquidity supply, although overall funding sentiment remains stable [3]. Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks was at 1.61%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [7]. Government Bonds and Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed declines: the 30-year main contract fell by 0.07%, the 10-year by 0.05%, the 5-year by 0.04%, and the 2-year by 0.02% [12]. Key News - The National Development and Reform Commission announced the allocation of 93.6 billion yuan in special long-term government bonds to support approximately 4,500 projects across various sectors, driving total investment over 460 billion yuan [13]. - The implementation period for personal consumption loan interest subsidies has been extended to December 31, 2026, with significant adjustments in support scope and limits, potentially lowering effective interest rates to around 2% for consumers [13]. - The second-hand housing market in major cities has shown signs of recovery, with a decrease in listing volumes in Shanghai for nine consecutive months, indicating a more balanced supply-demand relationship [13]. Global Macro - Japan's government maintained a cautiously optimistic economic outlook while warning of risks from U.S. trade policies. The report noted a fifth consecutive month of recovery in private consumption, which constitutes over half of the economy [15]. - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its policy rate at 0.75% during its upcoming meeting, although analysts caution that a hawkish stance may be adopted due to a weak yen and persistent domestic inflation [15]. - South Korea's GDP growth for Q4 2025 was reported at 1.5% year-on-year, below the expected 1.9%, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.3% [15].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The capital market is stable, and the yields of interest - rate bonds continue to rise. The A - share market is expected to maintain a strong performance this week, while the bond market may show a weak and volatile pattern. The investment value of 10 - year treasury bonds at the 1.9% level is gradually emerging [6]. - Upcoming economic data is expected to remain at a low level without significant surprises, providing some support for the bond market. Overseas geopolitical events may also impact the capital market [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Capital Market Conditions - This week, DR007 ranged from 1.43% to 1.47%, and DR001 ranged from 1.26% to 1.27%, with little change compared to the previous week [1]. - The yields of interest - rate bonds continued to rise overall. For treasury bonds, the 1 - year yield decreased by 4bp, while the 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year yields increased by 8bp, 4bp, 3bp, and 4bp respectively. For CDB bonds, the 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year yields increased by 3bp, 4bp, 4bp, 3bp, and 4bp respectively [1]. Market Performance Comparison - As of January 9, 2026, the 10 - 1Y term spread of treasury bonds was 58.95bp, and that of CDB bonds was 45.08bp, widening by 7.90bp and 1.71bp respectively compared to January 4 [4]. Other Market Conditions - The stock market has shown strong performance recently, achieving five consecutive positive days at the beginning of the year. The bond market has shown some independence, with the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds soaring first and then seeing bargain - hunting on Thursday and Friday [6]. - CPI was slightly higher than expected, mainly due to the rebound of fresh vegetable prices in food prices, while non - food prices, especially rent, declined significantly, indicating a weak inflation trend. PPI was basically in line with expectations [6]. - US non - farm payroll data shows a tight labor supply, with the probability of interest rate cuts remaining low. However, Powell's criminal case has led to market expectations of increased interest rate cuts, resulting in high risk sentiment in overseas markets [6].

Core Viewpoint - The interbank major interest rate bond yields have mostly increased slightly, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards interest rates [1] Group 1: Bond Yield Movements - The yield on the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开15" increased by 0.4 basis points to 1.9680% [1] - The yield on the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" decreased by 0.2 basis points to 1.8690% [1] - The yield on the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债06" increased by 0.55 basis points to 2.2975% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The interbank major bond yields have mostly decreased, indicating a potential shift in the interest rate environment [1] Group 1: Bond Yield Changes - As of 16:30, the yield on the 10-year government bond (active bond 250016) decreased by 0.3 basis points to 1.826% [1] - The yield on the 10-year policy bank bond (active bond 250215) fell by 0.15 basis points to 1.8975% [1] - Conversely, the yield on the 30-year government bond (active bond 2500006) increased by 0.58 basis points to 2.1888% [1]

Market Overview - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 195.5 billion yuan for 7 days at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 130 billion yuan after accounting for 65.5 billion yuan maturing that day [3][4]. Funding Conditions - The interbank market saw a balanced improvement in funding conditions, with overnight repurchase rates dropping by 9 basis points to around 1.41%. The overnight quotes on the anonymous X-repo system also fell to 1.43% [5][6]. Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks remained stable at approximately 1.63% [7]. Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed slight increases: 30-year contracts rose by 0.09%, 10-year by 0.02%, 5-year by 0.03%, and 2-year by 0.01% [11]. Government Procurement - The Ministry of Finance announced that the national government procurement scale for 2024 is projected to be 3,375.043 billion yuan, with goods, engineering, and services accounting for 23.54%, 41.01%, and 35.45% respectively [12]. Global Macro Developments - Japan's Prime Minister is set to propose a significant economic stimulus plan, indicating potential substantial spending to support the economy [14]. - South Korea's M2 money supply reached 4,430.5 trillion won (approximately 3.02 trillion USD) in September, marking a 0.7% month-on-month increase and an 8.5% year-on-year surge [14]. Bond Issuance Events - The China Development Bank plans to issue up to 19 billion yuan in three phases of fixed-rate bonds on November 13 [16]. - The Japanese Ministry of Finance will auction 800 billion yen of 20-year government bonds on November 19 [16]. Negative Events in Bond Market - Several companies, including Aerospace Hongtu and Zhejiang Yitian, have seen downgrades in their credit ratings or outlooks, indicating potential risks in the bond market [17]. Non-Standard Asset Risks - Various non-standard assets have been flagged for risk, including trust plans and private equity funds, highlighting ongoing concerns in the investment landscape [18].

Core Viewpoint - The interbank major interest rate bond yields have mostly turned upward in the afternoon of September 19, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards higher yields [1] Group 1: Yield Changes - The yield of the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开15" increased by 0.7 basis points to 1.93% [1] - The yield of the 10-year government bond "25附息国债11" rose by 0.75 basis points to 1.79% [1] - The yield of the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债02" went up by 0.8 basis points to 2.0780% [1]