美国抵押贷款利率在上周降至自2024年9月以来的最低水平，为近年来在高利率与高通胀重压之下持续低迷的美国 住房市场于2026年新年伊始带来一复苏丝希望。 根据美国抵押贷款银行家协会(MBA)周三发布的统计数据，在截至1月2日(包含元旦假期)的一周内，美国30年期抵 押贷款的合同利率下降7个基点至6.25%。用于购买更昂贵住房的30年期大额(jumbo)类型房屋抵押贷款利率降至 6.32%，创下2023年4月以来最低点位。 这些数据对近年来一直受可负担性约束所掣肘的美国住房市场而言无疑令人鼓舞。根据全美房地产经纪人协会 (NAR)的数据，合同签约量已连续四个月回升，表明楼市购置者们刚刚进入新年之际，美国房地产销售动能正在持 续增强。 如上图所示，美国抵押贷款利率降至一年多来最低，借贷成本的显著下降有望为美国住房市场带来一丝增长希望信 号。 尽管借贷成本下降，但是MBA的购房指数在上周经季节性调整后仍然下降6.2%。不过，年末假期前后买家兴趣减 少，叠加市场波动性加大是常见现象。与此同时，再融资指标经调整后意外上升7.4%。 MBA的调查自1990年以来每周开展，使用来自抵押贷款机构、大型商业银行与储蓄机构的详细 ...

格隆汇1月7日｜上周美国抵押贷款利率降至2024年9月以来的最低水平，这为新一年开局低迷的住房市 场带来了希望。根据抵押贷款银行家协会周三公布的数据，在截至1月2日的一周内，30年期抵押贷款的 合约利率下降了7个基点，至6.25%。用于购买高价住宅的30年期大额抵押贷款利率降至6.32%，为2023 年April以来最低点。对于近年来受困于购房负担能力的住房市场来说，这些数字令人鼓舞。根据全美 房地产经纪人协会的数据，签约量已连续四个月回升，预示着进入新的一年后销售势头正不断增强。尽 管借贷成本有所下降，但MBA的购房指数上周经季节性调整后下降了6.2%。不过，在年底假期前后出 现购房者兴趣减弱和波动加剧是正常现象。与此同时，再融资衡量指标经调整后上涨了7.4%。 ...

根据抵押贷款银行家协会（MBA）周三发布的数据，截至11月28日当周（包含感恩节假期），30年期 抵押贷款合同利率下降8个基点，至6.32%。锁定前5年利率的可调利率抵押贷款的利率降至5.4%，为 2023年5月以来的最低水平。 该协会衡量购房申请的指标攀升2.5%，达到2023年初以来的最高水平。尽管每周数据在假期附近往往 会有波动，但购房活动的持续回升将表明，在负担能力面临挑战的住房市场中潜在需求依然稳定。 与此同时，MBA衡量再融资活动的指标连续第五周下跌，创下一年来最长连跌。 自1990年以来每周开展的该协会调查，汇集了抵押贷款银行家、商业银行和储贷机构的反馈。相关数据 覆盖了美国零售住宅抵押贷款申请总量的75%以上。 该协会衡量购房申请的指标攀升2.5%，达到2023年初以来的最高水平。尽管每周数据在假期附近往往 会有波动，但购房活动的持续回升将表明，在负担能力面临挑战的住房市场中潜在需求依然稳定。 与此同时，MBA衡量再融资活动的指标连续第五周下跌，创下一年来最长连跌。 自1990年以来每周开展的该协会调查，汇集了抵押贷款银行家、商业银行和储贷机构的反馈。相关数据 覆盖了美国零售住宅抵押贷款申请总 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential impact of recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve on the US housing market, highlighting that while mortgage rates have decreased, significant changes in borrowing costs may not be forthcoming [4][8][9] Mortgage Rates and Housing Market - The average rate on a 30-year mortgage fell to 6.35%, marking the largest weekly decline in a year and the lowest in 11 months [4] - Despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, mortgage rates may not decrease significantly further as banks had already adjusted rates in anticipation of this cut [5][8] - Approximately 80% of mortgage borrowers have locked in rates below the current average, which contributes to a reluctance among homeowners to sell and thus limits housing supply [13][12] Buyer Sentiment and Market Activity - Some prospective buyers, like Aileen Barrameda, are motivated to enter the market despite high mortgage rates, anticipating future price increases [3][11] - Real estate agents report increased activity, with some buyers encouraged by recent declines in mortgage rates, although the overall market remains unaffordable for many [10][11] - Cautious optimism exists among lenders regarding the housing market, but the recent dip in mortgage rates is not expected to resolve underlying affordability issues [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The current liquidity level in the US remains healthy, but the focus should shift to the effectiveness of monetary policy stimulus, particularly the transmission of interest rate cuts to long-term rates, which is crucial for the recovery of the real economy [2][4][22] Group 1: Liquidity Status - Following the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, there has been no large-scale financial risk exposure in the US, and the stock market has recovered and reached new highs [4] - The US liquidity stock level is healthy, with concerns not stemming from insufficient liquidity but from potential mismatches and increased risk exposure due to further liquidity injections [4][11] - The current excess reserves in the US are approximately $900 billion, significantly higher than the $80 billion level during the 2019 repo market crisis [7] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Impact - The effectiveness of interest rate cuts in stimulating the real economy is under scrutiny, as the transmission to long-term rates remains weak, limiting recovery in sectors like manufacturing and real estate [22] - The average duration of assets on bank balance sheets is increasing, raising concerns about interest rate sensitivity and liquidity risks [22][18] - The low supply of non-bond assets, such as commercial loans and residential mortgages, has led banks to allocate more to bond assets, further increasing average duration and interest rate risk [18] Group 3: Structural Changes in Financial System - The proportion of US Treasury securities in banks' loanable assets has increased by nearly 8 percentage points to 53%, primarily due to an increase in held-to-maturity assets [13] - The overall losses in the US banking sector amount to $410 billion, with approximately $260 billion stemming from held-to-maturity assets, which limits banks' credit supply capabilities [17] - The distribution of reserves has become more even, with the largest banks bearing the brunt of the Fed's balance sheet reduction, indicating a more resilient financial system [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage in the United States has decreased to 6.74% [1] Group 1: Mortgage Rates - The current average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is reported at 6.74% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage in the United States has risen to 6.75%, indicating a significant increase in borrowing costs for homebuyers [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - The current average interest rate of 6.75% represents a notable increase compared to previous rates, impacting the affordability of mortgages for potential buyers [1] - This rise in mortgage rates is likely to influence the housing market dynamics, potentially leading to a slowdown in home sales and affecting overall housing demand [1] Group 2: Implications for Homebuyers - Higher mortgage rates may deter first-time homebuyers and those with tighter budgets, as monthly payments will increase significantly [1] - The increase in borrowing costs could lead to a shift in buyer preferences, with more individuals considering adjustable-rate mortgages or lower-priced homes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article reports that the 30-year mortgage rate in the United States has risen to 6.75% according to Freddie Mac [1] Group 1 - The increase in the 30-year mortgage rate indicates a trend in rising borrowing costs for homebuyers [1] - This rate change may impact the housing market dynamics, potentially leading to decreased affordability for buyers [1] - The rise in mortgage rates could also affect refinancing activities among existing homeowners [1]

Group 1 - Mortgage rates have seen a slight decline for the first time in a month, with the 30-year average rate at 6.85%, down from 6.89% the previous week, and the 15-year average at 5.99%, down from 6.03% [1] - The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 4% week-over-week decline in purchase applications, although they remain higher than the same period last year, with refinancing applications also down by 4% [1] - The decline in mortgage rates is closely linked to a drop in the 10-year Treasury yield, which fell significantly following weak service sector activity and a sharp decrease in private sector job growth [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve does not directly control mortgage rates but influences them through expectations regarding benchmark interest rates [2] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is anticipated to provide insights into the health of the job market, with economists predicting an addition of 128,000 jobs last month [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights that U.S. mortgage rates have risen to a three-month high, leading to a decline in both home purchase and refinancing applications [1] Mortgage Rate Trends - As of the week ending May 16, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased by 6 basis points to 6.92% [1] - The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) with a fixed rate for the first five years also reached its highest level since February [1] Application Trends - Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a decrease of approximately 5% in both home purchase and refinancing applications [1]