Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are affected by the warm commodity market but constrained by the weak reality. They are supported by costs but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of export expectations, and are expected to maintain a volatile trend [3] - The iron ore market has a neutral fundamental situation. High supply and rigid demand are in balance, and prices are expected to move in a volatile manner [22] - For coal and coke, the import pressure in January may ease. The price of coking coal may rebound if the resumption of domestic mines falls short of expectations. The supply - demand structure of coke may improve if the iron - making production of downstream steel mills increases rapidly [33] - Ferroalloy prices may be suppressed by corporate hedging when they rebound to a certain level, but the downside is limited due to cost support [48] - The over - supply expectation of soda ash is intensifying, and the demand expectation is weakening. High inventory restricts the price [63] - For glass, the cold - repair of production lines before the Spring Festival may affect long - term pricing, and the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested [86] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3100 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan from the previous day), and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3221 yuan/ton (down 56 yuan from the previous day). The month - to - month spreads also showed changes [4] - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions had slight fluctuations. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different contracts and regions also changed. For example, the 01 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 200 yuan/ton on December 31, 2025, up 13 yuan from the previous day [9][11] - **Other Ratios**: The volume - screw difference, rebar - iron ore ratio, and rebar - coke ratio were relatively stable on December 31, 2025, compared to the previous day [15][19] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore contracts showed small changes. For example, the 01 contract closed at 805 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan from the previous day). The basis of different contracts also changed [23] - **Fundamental Data**: As of December 26, 2025, the daily average pig iron production was 226.58 tons (up 0.03 tons week - on - week), the 45 - port desilting volume was 315.06 tons (up 1.61 tons week - on - week), and the 45 - port inventory was 15858.66 tons (up 346.03 tons week - on - week) [27] Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads and Ratios**: On December 31, 2025, the month - to - month spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. The coking profit on the disk decreased, and the ratios of ore - coke, screw - coke, and carbon - coal also changed [36] - **Spot Prices and Profits**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions were relatively stable. The import profits of different types of coal and the export profit of coke showed some fluctuations [39] Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron**: On December 31, 2025, the basis of silicon iron in Ningxia was - 22 yuan/ton (up 78 yuan from the previous day), and the month - to - month spreads also changed. The spot prices in different regions were stable or had small increases [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: The basis of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 80 yuan/ton (up 22 yuan from the previous day). The month - to - month spreads and spot prices in different regions also changed [50][52] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash contracts decreased. The month - to - month spreads changed significantly. For example, the month - to - month spread (9 - 1) increased by 25 yuan, with a growth rate of 17.61% [64] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions were relatively stable, with only slight changes in some regions [64] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of glass contracts were basically unchanged. The month - to - month spreads and basis in different regions changed slightly [87] - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions of glass showed fluctuations. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe on December 26, 2025, was 105 [88]

对 2026 经济政策的理性预期 20251207 摘要 预计 2026 年中国经济增长目标或设定在 4.8%-4.9%之间，财政赤字率 维持在 4%，广义赤字率小幅下降，旨在控制债务风险，相关信息将在 经济工作会议上发布，为市场提供理性预期。 2026 年基建投资预计回升，受益于专项债下行速度减缓、特别国债稳 定、"十五规划"新项目及北方防汛减灾项目等，将推动基建投资增速。 房地产市场对经济的拖累逐渐减少，销售增速企稳，投资占 GDP 比重接 近发达国家下限，预计一到两年内触底趋稳，政策重点在于去库存和优 化供给，地方政府承担主要责任。 固定资产投资方面，2025 年增速为负，但随着房地产销售和价格企稳， 2026 年地产投资增速有望转正，从而带动固定资产投资整体改善。 消费领域面临国补资金不足和部分商品饱和挑战，但无补贴商品增速已 超过有补贴商品，未来汽车家电补贴可能减少，耐用品或受关注，服务 消费补贴全国推广尚需时日。 2026 年财政支出预计增加，货币政策延续适度宽松，一季度降息降准 概率较大，消费方面以旧换新政策持续，一季度经济增长预期良好。 美国货币宽松预期强烈，新兴市场需求稳定，预计 2026 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Oscillating weakly [4][8] - Asphalt: Oscillating weakly [4][9] - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating weakly [4][10] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating weakly [4][11] - Methanol: Oscillating [21][22] - Urea: Oscillating strongly [4][23] - Ethylene glycol: Oscillating [16][17] - PX: Oscillating [12] - PTA: Oscillating [13][14] - Short - fiber: Oscillating [18][20] - Bottle chips: Oscillating [19] - PP: Oscillating weakly [4][25][26] - Propylene: Oscillating [26][27] - Plastic: Oscillating weakly [4][24] - Pure benzene: Oscillating [14][15] - Styrene: Oscillating [15][16] - PVC: Oscillating cautiously and weakly [4][29] - Caustic soda: Oscillating [30] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil and coal prices are both weak, dragging down the chemical industry. Urea rises against the trend due to improved export expectations. Investors should approach oil - chemical products with an oscillating and weakly - biased mindset, using the 5 - day moving average as a stop - loss point [2][3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - Accumulation pressure continues, and geopolitical disturbances should be monitored. API data shows a decline in US crude and gasoline inventories last week. Globally, OPEC+ production increases have led to a counter - seasonal accumulation of on - land crude inventories. Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with attention to short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations [8] 3.1.2 Asphalt - The asphalt futures price of 3500 may change from support to pressure. EIA has significantly lowered oil price expectations, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict may drive the geopolitical premium to decline. The supply tension has eased, and demand remains unoptimistic [9] 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Despite the attack on Russian refineries, high - sulfur fuel oil oscillates weakly. EIA's adjustment of oil price and production expectations, along with increased supply and weak demand, contribute to the weak trend [10] 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices oscillate weakly following crude oil. It is affected by factors such as shipping demand decline, green energy substitution, and increased supply pressure [11] 3.1.5 Methanol - Cautiously monitor long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts. Methanol futures prices oscillate. The port inventory has increased, and downstream olefins prices are under pressure. There may be long - position opportunities in the far - month due to expected overseas shutdowns [21][22] 3.1.6 Urea - Export expectations are good, but transactions are cautious. The improvement in China - India relations promotes the upward trend. The market sentiment was temporarily stagnant but was reignited by the news of China - India relations [22][23] 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol - Supply and demand both increase, and there is support at the lower price level. Domestic large - scale plants are restarting and having short - term shutdowns, and demand is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons [16] 3.1.8 PX - There is short - term support at the lower level. The supply - demand pattern is relatively stable, and downstream demand shows signs of improvement [12] 3.1.9 PTA - It is looking for a direction in oscillation. The short - term trading logic lies in ongoing supply maintenance and expected demand improvement [13] 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - It fluctuates following upstream costs. Supply - demand fundamentals change little, and sales have slightly recovered, but the increase is limited [18] 3.1.11 Bottle Chips - There is some cost support, but its own driving force is limited. The price mainly follows raw materials, and the processing fee is compressed [19] 3.1.12 PP - Good refinery profits suppress valuation, and PP oscillates weakly. Oil prices are weak, propane prices are low, supply is increasing, and demand is in the peak - off - peak transition period [25][26] 3.1.13 Propylene (PL) - PL follows PP to oscillate and decline in the short term. Supply is abundant, but downstream follow - up is insufficient [26] 3.1.14 Plastic - Fundamental support is limited, and plastic oscillates weakly. Oil prices are weak, and the supply side has pressure [24] 3.1.15 Pure Benzene - It has insufficient driving force and oscillates within a narrow range. Geopolitical tensions are easing, and downstream profits are declining [14][15] 3.1.16 Styrene - Peak - season stocking has begun, but demand is limited. There are some positive factors such as improved pure benzene market and downstream stocking, but negative factors like increased supply and limited demand are more prominent [15][16] 3.1.17 PVC - Anti - dumping measures pressure demand, and PVC is cautiously weak. Upstream autumn maintenance may reduce production, and export expectations are under pressure [29] 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - Market sentiment is poor, dragging down the price. Fundamentals are marginally improving, but market sentiment is still affected [30] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - The report provides data on inter - period spreads, basis, and inter - variety spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [32][33][35] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report mentions monitoring for methanol, urea, styrene, etc., specific data summaries are not provided in the given text [36][48][60]

Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Iron ore (short - term), Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Bitumen, Shanghai stocks, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Styrene, Cotton (domestic, long - term), Corn (near - term), Soybean (far - month C01) [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Stainless steel, Steel, Coke, Coking coal, Coke breeze, Rapeseed oil, Cotton (domestic, short - term), Sugar, Pulp, Live pigs, PE, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping secondary line [1] Core Views The report provides trend judgments and logical analyses for various commodities in different sectors. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data (e.g., US non - farm payrolls), geopolitical situations (e.g., Middle East tensions), supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillating movements, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors for each commodity [1]. Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume gradually shrinks slightly, and with mediocre domestic and international positive factors, there is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Market uncertainties remain. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate mainly. Attention should be paid to tariff developments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Base Metals**: Due to factors such as the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and inventory changes, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, etc., have downward risks. Nickel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After an oscillating rebound, the sustainability needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to raw material changes and actual steel - mill production [1] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a downward risk, and polysilicon is affected by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment [1] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Supply has not been reduced, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital gaming. The price oscillates [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: Macro uncertainties remain. With raw material price weakening, social inventory slightly declining, and steel - mill production reduction news boosting confidence, the market situation is complex. The sustainability of stainless - steel rebound needs to be observed [1] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes oils to follow the decline of crude oil. In the long term, international oil demand increases, and the far - month contracts of palm oil are bullish [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums. In the long term, macro uncertainties are strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio and production [1] - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is affected by policy - based grain releases and price differences. Soybeans have different trends for near - and far - month contracts, depending on factors such as supply - demand and trade policies [1] - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has low valuation and macro - positive factors. Logs are in the off - season, and supply decline is limited [1] - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous repair of pig inventory, the market shows a certain stability [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation and OPEC +'s unexpected production increase, crude oil, fuel oil, etc., have downward risks [1] - **Petrochemical Products**: PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and production - reduction expectations [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR rubber is under pressure due to factors such as OPEC's production increase and high basis [1] - **Plastics and Chemicals**: PE, PVC, caustic soda, etc., show different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand, and market sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Affected by factors such as price cuts, production increases, and seasonal demand, it has downward space [1] Other - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach its peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend from July to August. The subsequent shipping capacity is relatively sufficient [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint of the Report - Short - term domestic macro - policies are in a complete vacuum, with weak expectations for domestic incremental policies. The recent decline in carbon element prices has led to the collapse of cost support for finished products, and the overall valuation of the black series has decreased, dragging down the iron ore price. Iron ore trading is currently focused on the strong reality. Although demand has basically peaked, the decline slope is gentle, and the supply is continuously increasing but may still show a year - on - year decrease. It is expected that iron ore will remain relatively strong in the short term but will still be affected by the sector [3][4] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Situation - Recently, iron ore has shown relatively strong performance. While rebar and hot - rolled coils have retraced the rebound caused by the easing of Sino - US tariffs, finished products and coking coal have fallen to new lows. The price reduction of carbon elements has prevented a significant compression of blast furnace steel mill profits due to price drops. Under the strong pressure of Sino - US tariffs, domestic exporters have rushed to export to the US to offset the decline in domestic demand. The 90 - day suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs has intensified the rush - to - export behavior, and the market has revised its expectations of export decline. Iron ore is currently in a situation of high demand, high discount, and inventory depletion, resulting in relatively strong price performance [3] Supply - The current shipment of foreign iron ore has decreased compared to the previous period. Australian shipments have increased while Brazilian shipments have decreased, and the non - mainstream shipments have declined after a pulse. The overall year - on - year decline in foreign ore shipments is narrowing. June is the peak season for foreign ore shipments, and major mines are expected to maintain a steady increase in shipments, with the marginal support from the supply side weakening [3] Demand - Domestic demand is generally at a high level compared to the same period in history. Pig iron production has declined for two consecutive weeks, with the current level at 243.6 (-1.17) thousand tons, and the decline has widened. Although short - term demand has peaked, the current profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high, and the export outlook has been revised upwards. It is expected that pig iron production will decline from a high level but with a gentle slope, and the short - term impact on prices will be small [4] Inventory - The current domestic demand level is still relatively high. It is expected that the port inventory level will remain relatively stable or tend to decline in early June. However, overall, the inventory is at a high level, and the phased de - stocking at a high inventory level cannot provide upward momentum [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term domestic macro - policies are in a complete vacuum, and the expectation of incremental policies is weak. The decline of carbon elements causes the cost support of finished products to collapse, and the overall valuation of the black series drags down the iron ore price. Iron ore trading focuses on strong reality in the short term. Although demand has basically peaked with a low decline slope, and supply continues to rise but may remain in year - on - year decline, it is expected to remain relatively strong in the short term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - Last week, iron ore showed relative strength. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils retracted most of the gains from the rebound due to the relaxation of Sino - US tariffs on May 12, and coking coal and coke hit new lows. The decline in carbon element prices allowed blast furnace steel mills to avoid a significant profit compression. Under the strong pressure of Sino - US tariffs, domestic exporters rushed to export to hedge the decline in domestic demand. The 90 - day suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs strengthened the rush - to - export behavior to the US, and the market revised the expectation of export decline. Iron ore is in a pattern of high demand, high discount, and inventory reduction, showing relative strength [2]. Supply - Last week, the shipment of foreign iron ore rebounded significantly on a week - on - week basis, and the year - on - year decline in overall foreign ore shipments tended to narrow. May is the peak season for foreign ore shipments, and mainstream mines are expected to maintain a steady upward shipment trend, with the marginal support of the supply side weakening [2]. Demand - Domestic demand is at a high level in the same historical period. The molten iron output has declined for two consecutive weeks, with this period at 243.6 (-1.77) and the decline rate expanding. Short - term demand has peaked, but the current profitability of steel mills is high and the export expectation has been revised upwards. It is expected that the molten iron output will decline from a high level with a low downward slope, having a small short - term impact on prices [3]. Inventory - The current domestic demand level is still relatively high. It is expected that the port inventory level will remain relatively stable or tend to decline in early June. However, overall, the inventory is at a high level, and the phased de - stocking at a high inventory level is difficult to provide upward momentum [3]. Strategy - It is recommended to use range - bound operations and the 9 - 1 positive spread strategy. The price range of the i2509 contract is 715 - 745 yuan/ton, and the price range of the foreign FE06 contract is 97 - 101 US dollars/ton [3].