Core Insights - Taiwan is investigating a former TSMC executive who recently joined Intel, amid concerns that he may have taken advanced technology data with him [1] - Wei-Jen Lo, who played a key role in advancing TSMC's 2nm to 5nm process technologies, reportedly joined Intel in October [1] - Lo has 21 years of experience at TSMC, where he served as Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategy Development before retiring [1] Group 1 - The Taiwanese Minister of Economic Affairs announced the investigation into the former TSMC executive [1] - Reports indicate that Wei-Jen Lo has not responded to requests for comments regarding his move to Intel [1] - Lo is now working directly under Intel's CEO, Lip-Bu Tan [1] Group 2 - Lo led TSMC's research and advanced technology development, contributing to the mass production of 5nm, 3nm, and 2nm processes [1] - Before joining TSMC in 2004, Lo worked at Intel for 18 years, where he held positions such as Director of Technology Development and Factory Manager [1]

Core Insights - TSMC reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for Q3, with both metrics growing over 30% year-on-year, driven by surging demand from AI clients like OpenAI, Meta, and xAI [2][3][6] Financial Performance - TSMC's revenue for Q3 reached NT$989.92 billion (approximately RMB 230.16 billion), a 30.3% increase from NT$759.69 billion in the same quarter last year and a 6.0% increase from NT$933.79 billion in the previous quarter [2][3] - Net income attributable to shareholders was NT$452.30 billion (approximately RMB 105.16 billion), up 39.1% year-on-year from NT$325.26 billion and up 13.6% from NT$398.27 billion in Q2 [3][4] - The gross margin for Q3 was 59.5%, an increase from 57.8% year-on-year and 58.6% quarter-on-quarter [6] Market Share and Technology - TSMC's market share in the pure foundry market is projected to grow from 63% in Q1 2024 to 71% by Q2 2025, attributed to increased capacity in 3nm technology and high utilization rates for AI GPUs [2] - Advanced process technologies (7nm and below) accounted for 74% of total wafer revenue, with 3nm contributing 23% and 5nm contributing 37% [5][6] Revenue by Application - High Performance Computing (HPC) and smartphones accounted for 57% and 30% of net revenue, respectively, with HPC's share decreasing from 60% in Q2 [7] - TSMC's revenue from North American clients constituted 76% of total net revenue, highlighting a heavy reliance on this market [9] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - TSMC's capital expenditure for Q3 was approximately USD 9.7 billion, with total spending for the year nearing USD 30 billion [10][11] - The company anticipates capital expenditures for 2025 to be in the range of USD 40-42 billion, reflecting strong demand for 2nm technology [11] - TSMC expects AI-related revenue to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 40% over the next few years, driven by increasing demand for AI infrastructure [12][20]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's 2nm process is set to begin mass production in the second half of this year, with strong demand from major clients like Apple, AMD, and Intel, leading to significant capacity expansion plans [1][2] Group 1: Production Capacity - TSMC plans to increase its 2nm monthly production capacity from 40,000 wafers by the end of this year to 100,000 wafers next year, representing a 150% increase [1] - By 2027, TSMC aims to further expand its 2nm capacity to between 160,000 and 180,000 wafers, with the potential to reach 200,000 wafers if demand exceeds expectations [1][2] - Currently, TSMC's advanced process capacities include approximately 160,000 wafers for the 7nm process, slightly over 160,000 for the 5nm process, and about 130,000 wafers for the 3nm process, with potential adjustments to reach 160,000 wafers [2] Group 2: Client Demand and Market Position - Major clients expected to adopt TSMC's 2nm process include Apple, AMD, Intel, Qualcomm, MediaTek, and NVIDIA, indicating a broad market interest [1][2] - TSMC's advanced process expansion is anticipated to drive revenue growth, as newer processes command higher pricing, benefiting the company's operational performance [2] - The company expects that the number of product designs utilizing its 2nm technology in the first two years will surpass those for the 3nm and 5nm processes during their respective initial periods [2]

点击招商研究小程序查看PDF报告原文 台积电（TSMC，2330.TW）于4月17日发布2025年第一季度财报，25Q1收入255.3亿美元，同比+35. 3%/环比-5.1%；毛利率58.8%，同比+5.7pcts/环比-0.2pcts。公司指引AI加速芯片营收增长强劲，25Q2 收入预计同比加速增长，尚未看到关税带来客户提前拉货。综合财报及交流会议信息，总结要点如下： 评论： 1、25Q1收入符合指引预期，毛利率位于指引上限。 25Q1收入255.3亿美元，符合指引预期（250-258亿美元），以美元计同比+35.3%/环比-5.1%；环比下降 系智能手机季节性因素影响，部分被AI相关需求持续增长所抵消；毛利率58.8%，位于指引上限（57-5 9%），同比+5.7pcts/环比-0.2pcts，主要系地震及海外产能扩张所稀释，部分被成本改善措施抵消；公 司25Q1 EPS为13.94新台币，ROE为32.7%，ASP 3482美元/环比-0.4%。 2、HPC收入占比继续提升，7nm及以下收入占比73%。 1）按技术节点划分： 25Q1 3/5/7nm收入分别占比22%/36%/15%，7nm及以下先进 ...