Core Viewpoint - Intel is considering a strategic shift in its foundry business, potentially halting the promotion of the Intel 18A process technology to external clients and focusing on the Intel 14A process instead [1][2][5]. Group 1: Strategic Adjustments - Intel's CEO Lip-Bu Tan is contemplating stopping the promotion of the Intel 18A process to external clients, with a decision expected by September [1][2]. - This is not the first instance of Intel employing a "leapfrog" strategy, as it previously skipped the Intel 20A node to focus on Intel 18A to reduce capital expenditures [2][4]. - The decision reflects a broader strategic contraction due to challenges in the advanced process competition, which may have significant financial implications for Intel [2][4]. Group 2: Financial Implications - Intel's foundry division reported a net loss of $13.4 billion in 2024, accounting for 71.28% of the company's total loss of $18.8 billion [2]. - The estimated investment in the 18A and related technologies has already cost several billion dollars, and halting its promotion could lead to asset impairment in the range of hundreds of millions to billions [2][3]. Group 3: Market Position and Competition - Intel's foundry business has a market share of 6.5% in the global Foundry 2.0 market, which is expected to reach $72 billion in revenue by Q1 2025, reflecting a 13% year-over-year growth [4]. - The company is currently only collaborating with Amazon and Microsoft for external clients on the 18A process, with limited short-term revenue potential [3][5]. Group 4: Future Directions - Despite potentially stopping external promotion of the 18A process, Intel plans to continue using it for its own products, including the upcoming Panther Lake and Clearwater Forest processors [6][7]. - Intel aims to allocate more resources to the Intel 14A process, which is projected to offer significant performance improvements over the 18A process [7][8]. - The Intel 14A process is expected to utilize advanced technologies that could provide cost advantages, although the approval for this shift remains uncertain [8][9]. Group 5: Market Reaction - Following the news of the potential halt in promoting the 18A process, Intel's stock price fell by 4.25% as investors reacted to the strategic considerations [9].

Core Insights - The global semiconductor foundry 2.0 market is projected to grow by 12.5% year-on-year to reach $72.29 billion in Q1 2025, driven by surging demand for AI and high-performance computing chips [1] - The definition of foundry 2.0, introduced by TSMC, encompasses not only traditional wafer manufacturing but also packaging, testing, and photomask production, expanding the market size to nearly $250 billion in 2023 from $115 billion under the old definition [1] Company Performance - TSMC holds a dominant market share of 35.3%, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 30%, attributed to its strong position in advanced processes and substantial AI chip orders [2] - Intel ranks second with a 6.5% market share, while ASE and Samsung follow with 6.2% and 5.9% shares, respectively [2] - The traditional foundry market revenue increased by 26%, while the non-memory IDM market saw a 3% decline due to weak demand in automotive and industrial applications [2] Industry Trends - AI is identified as the core driver of growth in the semiconductor industry, reshaping the priorities within the foundry supply chain and reinforcing TSMC's and advanced packaging suppliers' critical roles [3] - The foundry industry is transitioning from a traditional linear manufacturing model to a highly integrated value chain system, with expectations of new waves of semiconductor technology innovation driven by AI applications and Chiplet integration [3] - The broader foundry 2.0 market is anticipated to reach $298 billion by 2025, marking an 11% growth from 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% projected from 2024 to 2029 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The application of artificial intelligence (AI) in smartphones, personal computers, and data centers, along with TSMC's increasing market share in Foundry 2.0, is expected to drive TSMC's market value to potentially reach $3 trillion in the next five years [1][2] Group 1: TSMC's Market Position - TSMC currently holds a 67% share of the global third-party foundry market, significantly higher than Samsung's 11% [1] - TSMC's foundry market share has increased from 58% a few years ago to its current level, indicating a stable upward trend [1] - TSMC's market share in the Foundry 2.0 segment is projected to grow to 37% this year, up from 28% last year [2] Group 2: AI Chip Demand - The demand for AI chips is expected to significantly benefit TSMC, with projections indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 35% for the global AI chip market by 2033 [1] - TSMC anticipates a potential CAGR in revenue from AI accelerators designed by companies like NVIDIA and AMD to reach the mid-40s percentage over the next five years [1] Group 3: Revenue Projections - The Foundry 2.0 market is expected to grow by 11% in 2025, with revenues reaching $298 billion this year [2] - If TSMC's Foundry 2.0 revenue share increases to 60% in five years, annual revenue could reach $262 billion, tripling from 2024 levels [2] - TSMC's current stock price is approximately 11 times its revenue, and a slight increase in this ratio could lead to a market value of $3 trillion in the next five years [2]

点击招商研究小程序查看PDF报告原文 台积电（TSMC，2330.TW）于4月17日发布2025年第一季度财报，25Q1收入255.3亿美元，同比+35. 3%/环比-5.1%；毛利率58.8%，同比+5.7pcts/环比-0.2pcts。公司指引AI加速芯片营收增长强劲，25Q2 收入预计同比加速增长，尚未看到关税带来客户提前拉货。综合财报及交流会议信息，总结要点如下： 评论： 1、25Q1收入符合指引预期，毛利率位于指引上限。 25Q1收入255.3亿美元，符合指引预期（250-258亿美元），以美元计同比+35.3%/环比-5.1%；环比下降 系智能手机季节性因素影响，部分被AI相关需求持续增长所抵消；毛利率58.8%，位于指引上限（57-5 9%），同比+5.7pcts/环比-0.2pcts，主要系地震及海外产能扩张所稀释，部分被成本改善措施抵消；公 司25Q1 EPS为13.94新台币，ROE为32.7%，ASP 3482美元/环比-0.4%。 2、HPC收入占比继续提升，7nm及以下收入占比73%。 1）按技术节点划分： 25Q1 3/5/7nm收入分别占比22%/36%/15%，7nm及以下先进 ...