Workflow
晶圆代工2.0
icon
Search documents
晶圆代工大变局:台积电通吃先进制程,中国大陆为何猛扩47%成熟产能?
材料汇· 2025-09-21 15:09
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformative impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the global semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on the critical role of advanced chips and wafer foundries in this evolution. It highlights the challenges and opportunities faced by Chinese foundries in the context of geopolitical tensions and the shift from globalization to regionalization [2][5]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The wafer foundry industry is defined by the division of labor among Fabless, Foundry, and OSAT, which is essential for analyzing the current state of China's semiconductor industry. China has strong players in Fabless and Foundry but faces significant challenges in EDA/IP and advanced equipment [5]. - The trend towards domestic production is driven by geopolitical pressures rather than purely market forces, revealing high barriers to entry in the industry, including capital, technology, and ecosystem accumulation [5][31]. - The semiconductor market is experiencing structural changes, with AI and automotive electronics being the primary drivers of capacity growth. However, there is a risk of overcapacity in mature processes [5][12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The article notes that the demand for chips is increasing, particularly in AI, HPC, and automotive electronics, which require higher performance and efficiency. This has led to significant R&D investments in advanced process technologies [32][44]. - The global semiconductor market is projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% from 2025 to 2030, driven by the surge in demand for servers, data centers, and storage [44][50]. Group 3: Chinese Foundries - Chinese foundries are forming a tiered layout, with companies like SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and others establishing competitive advantages in various niche markets, avoiding homogenization [6][19]. - SMIC is recognized as a leader in China's integrated circuit manufacturing, achieving significant revenue growth and technological advancements in logic and specialty processes [54][53]. - Hua Hong Semiconductor is noted for its comprehensive specialty process platform, focusing on embedded non-volatile memory and power devices, and has shown strong revenue growth [56][57]. - Jinghe Integrated Circuit has become a leader in the liquid crystal panel driver chip foundry sector, achieving significant market share and revenue growth [59]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - TSMC's competitive advantages include technological leadership, R&D investment, and deep integration with major clients like Apple and NVIDIA, which are crucial for maintaining its market position [6][12]. - The article discusses the shift from IDM to Foundry as a revolutionary change in the industry, with geopolitical factors influencing global supply chain restructuring [14][50]. - The article highlights the importance of specialized processes and system-level foundry services as a trend in the industry, with TSMC's advanced packaging technologies serving as a significant competitive edge [29][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The future of the wafer foundry industry is characterized by a focus on mature processes and specialty technologies, with Chinese foundries positioned to capitalize on domestic demand and policy support [31][37]. - The article warns of potential overcapacity risks, particularly in consumer electronics, while emphasizing the importance of maintaining high utilization rates and strong customer relationships to mitigate financial pressures [26][50].
2025晶圆代工产业格局、技术突破与中国力量
材料汇· 2025-08-28 15:29
Core Viewpoint - The wafer foundry industry is a crucial segment of the semiconductor sector, characterized by its capital and technology intensity, and is experiencing significant growth driven by AI and automotive electronics demand [1][11]. Group 1: What is Wafer Foundry? - Wafer foundry refers to the specialized manufacturing of semiconductor wafers, accepting orders from integrated circuit (IC) design companies without engaging in design itself [1][14]. - The wafer foundry industry consists of an upstream segment involving semiconductor materials and equipment, a midstream segment for wafer processing services, and a downstream segment for packaging and testing [1][18]. - Manufacturing processes are categorized into advanced logic processes and specialty processes, with advanced processes defined as those below 14nm and mature processes as those at 28nm and above [1][27]. Group 2: Advantages and Challenges of Wafer Foundry - The wafer foundry industry shows a clear trend towards domestic production, with increasing market demand and government support for the semiconductor industry [2][37]. - Challenges include geopolitical instability, significant first-mover advantages held by leading companies, reliance on key materials, and yield issues [2][42]. Group 3: Current Market Status - The semiconductor industry is currently in a favorable economic cycle, with global wafer production capacity expected to grow from 31.5 million wafers per month in 2024 to 33.7 million in 2025, representing growth rates of 6% and 7% respectively [3][47]. - Global semiconductor sales are projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% from 2025 to 2030 [4][50]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by a "one strong, many strong" structure, with TSMC holding a 60% market share, while China is expected to dominate mature processes by 2027 [4][54]. Group 4: Major Companies in Mainland China - Major players in China's wafer foundry sector include SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and Jinghe Integrated [5][60]. - SMIC is recognized as a leading integrated circuit wafer foundry in China, achieving significant revenue growth and technological advancements in logic and specialty processes [6][62]. - Hua Hong Semiconductor is noted for its comprehensive specialty process platform and has consistently expanded its revenue, ranking fifth globally among pure wafer foundry companies [7][64]. - Jinghe Integrated has achieved the top market share in the liquid crystal panel driver chip foundry sector and has shown substantial revenue growth [8][67]. Group 5: Technology Development Trends - The global wafer foundry capacity is expanding, with advanced processes like 3nm and 2nm becoming increasingly competitive, driven by the rise of AI and high-performance computing (HPC) demands [10][29]. - The investment required for advanced processes has significantly increased, with estimates suggesting that 2nm technology may require close to $28 billion in investment [30][30]. - The concept of "Wafer Foundry 2.0" has emerged, encompassing not only wafer manufacturing but also packaging, testing, and other integrated services [32][32].
半导体分析手册系列之一:AI驱动下的晶圆代工新纪元:2025投产股份格局、技术突破与中国力量
Dongxing Securities· 2025-08-28 08:18
Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the semiconductor foundry industry, particularly driven by AI and automotive electronics demand [5]. Core Insights - The semiconductor foundry industry is experiencing a significant growth phase, with global semiconductor sales expected to exceed $1 trillion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 9% from 2025 to 2030 [4][39]. - TSMC dominates the foundry market with a 60% market share, while SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and others are emerging as key players in the Chinese market [47][52][58]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Wafer foundry refers to the manufacturing of semiconductor wafers for other IC design companies without engaging in design itself. It is a crucial segment of the semiconductor industry [3][10]. - The industry is characterized by high capital and technology intensity, with significant investments required for advanced process nodes [22][23]. Market Dynamics - The global semiconductor wafer capacity is projected to grow from 31.5 million wafers per month in 2024 to 33.7 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 6% and 7% respectively [4][37]. - The demand for chips is driven by sectors such as AI, HPC, and automotive electronics, leading to increased R&D investments in advanced process technologies [29][39]. Key Players in China - SMIC is a leading foundry in China, achieving significant revenue growth and technological advancements, including the production of 14nm FinFET technology [52][54]. - Hua Hong Semiconductor is recognized for its comprehensive specialty process platform, focusing on various technology segments [58]. - Jinghe Integrated Circuit has achieved global leadership in the LCD driver chip foundry market [65]. Competitive Landscape - The foundry market is characterized by a "one strong, many strong" competitive structure, with TSMC as the clear leader, followed by Samsung and SMIC [47]. - The report highlights the increasing market share of SMIC, which has risen to third place in the global foundry rankings [47][49]. Future Trends - The report anticipates continued growth in advanced processes (28nm and below) and specialty processes, driven by the rising demand for high-performance computing and AI applications [5][39]. - The foundry industry is evolving towards a "Foundry 2.0" model, which includes not only wafer manufacturing but also packaging, testing, and other integrated services [24].
赛道Hyper | 英特尔“考虑”停推18A制程技术
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-03 11:31
Core Viewpoint - Intel is considering a strategic shift in its foundry business, potentially halting the promotion of the Intel 18A process technology to external clients and focusing on the Intel 14A process instead [1][2][5]. Group 1: Strategic Adjustments - Intel's CEO Lip-Bu Tan is contemplating stopping the promotion of the Intel 18A process to external clients, with a decision expected by September [1][2]. - This is not the first instance of Intel employing a "leapfrog" strategy, as it previously skipped the Intel 20A node to focus on Intel 18A to reduce capital expenditures [2][4]. - The decision reflects a broader strategic contraction due to challenges in the advanced process competition, which may have significant financial implications for Intel [2][4]. Group 2: Financial Implications - Intel's foundry division reported a net loss of $13.4 billion in 2024, accounting for 71.28% of the company's total loss of $18.8 billion [2]. - The estimated investment in the 18A and related technologies has already cost several billion dollars, and halting its promotion could lead to asset impairment in the range of hundreds of millions to billions [2][3]. Group 3: Market Position and Competition - Intel's foundry business has a market share of 6.5% in the global Foundry 2.0 market, which is expected to reach $72 billion in revenue by Q1 2025, reflecting a 13% year-over-year growth [4]. - The company is currently only collaborating with Amazon and Microsoft for external clients on the 18A process, with limited short-term revenue potential [3][5]. Group 4: Future Directions - Despite potentially stopping external promotion of the 18A process, Intel plans to continue using it for its own products, including the upcoming Panther Lake and Clearwater Forest processors [6][7]. - Intel aims to allocate more resources to the Intel 14A process, which is projected to offer significant performance improvements over the 18A process [7][8]. - The Intel 14A process is expected to utilize advanced technologies that could provide cost advantages, although the approval for this shift remains uncertain [8][9]. Group 5: Market Reaction - Following the news of the potential halt in promoting the 18A process, Intel's stock price fell by 4.25% as investors reacted to the strategic considerations [9].
机构:一季度全球“晶圆代工2.0”收入同比增长12.5%至723亿美元
Core Insights - The global semiconductor foundry 2.0 market is projected to grow by 12.5% year-on-year to reach $72.29 billion in Q1 2025, driven by surging demand for AI and high-performance computing chips [1] - The definition of foundry 2.0, introduced by TSMC, encompasses not only traditional wafer manufacturing but also packaging, testing, and photomask production, expanding the market size to nearly $250 billion in 2023 from $115 billion under the old definition [1] Company Performance - TSMC holds a dominant market share of 35.3%, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 30%, attributed to its strong position in advanced processes and substantial AI chip orders [2] - Intel ranks second with a 6.5% market share, while ASE and Samsung follow with 6.2% and 5.9% shares, respectively [2] - The traditional foundry market revenue increased by 26%, while the non-memory IDM market saw a 3% decline due to weak demand in automotive and industrial applications [2] Industry Trends - AI is identified as the core driver of growth in the semiconductor industry, reshaping the priorities within the foundry supply chain and reinforcing TSMC's and advanced packaging suppliers' critical roles [3] - The foundry industry is transitioning from a traditional linear manufacturing model to a highly integrated value chain system, with expectations of new waves of semiconductor technology innovation driven by AI applications and Chiplet integration [3] - The broader foundry 2.0 market is anticipated to reach $298 billion by 2025, marking an 11% growth from 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% projected from 2024 to 2029 [3]
台积电市占逐步上升 市值未来五年上看3万亿美元
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-06-07 22:33
Core Viewpoint - The application of artificial intelligence (AI) in smartphones, personal computers, and data centers, along with TSMC's increasing market share in Foundry 2.0, is expected to drive TSMC's market value to potentially reach $3 trillion in the next five years [1][2] Group 1: TSMC's Market Position - TSMC currently holds a 67% share of the global third-party foundry market, significantly higher than Samsung's 11% [1] - TSMC's foundry market share has increased from 58% a few years ago to its current level, indicating a stable upward trend [1] - TSMC's market share in the Foundry 2.0 segment is projected to grow to 37% this year, up from 28% last year [2] Group 2: AI Chip Demand - The demand for AI chips is expected to significantly benefit TSMC, with projections indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 35% for the global AI chip market by 2033 [1] - TSMC anticipates a potential CAGR in revenue from AI accelerators designed by companies like NVIDIA and AMD to reach the mid-40s percentage over the next five years [1] Group 3: Revenue Projections - The Foundry 2.0 market is expected to grow by 11% in 2025, with revenues reaching $298 billion this year [2] - If TSMC's Foundry 2.0 revenue share increases to 60% in five years, annual revenue could reach $262 billion, tripling from 2024 levels [2] - TSMC's current stock price is approximately 11 times its revenue, and a slight increase in this ratio could lead to a market value of $3 trillion in the next five years [2]
【招商电子】台积电25Q1跟踪报告:25Q2收入指引强劲增长,拟增投千亿美金加码美国先进Fab
招商电子· 2025-04-18 01:49
点击招商研究小程序查看PDF报告原文 台积电(TSMC,2330.TW)于4月17日发布2025年第一季度财报,25Q1收入255.3亿美元,同比+35. 3%/环比-5.1%;毛利率58.8%,同比+5.7pcts/环比-0.2pcts。公司指引AI加速芯片营收增长强劲,25Q2 收入预计同比加速增长,尚未看到关税带来客户提前拉货。综合财报及交流会议信息,总结要点如下: 评论: 1、25Q1收入符合指引预期,毛利率位于指引上限。 25Q1收入255.3亿美元,符合指引预期(250-258亿美元),以美元计同比+35.3%/环比-5.1%;环比下降 系智能手机季节性因素影响,部分被AI相关需求持续增长所抵消;毛利率58.8%,位于指引上限(57-5 9%),同比+5.7pcts/环比-0.2pcts,主要系地震及海外产能扩张所稀释,部分被成本改善措施抵消;公 司25Q1 EPS为13.94新台币,ROE为32.7%,ASP 3482美元/环比-0.4%。 2、HPC收入占比继续提升,7nm及以下收入占比73%。 1)按技术节点划分: 25Q1 3/5/7nm收入分别占比22%/36%/15%,7nm及以下先进 ...