Core Viewpoint - Major U.S. companies like Apple, AMD, NVIDIA, and Broadcom are increasingly relying on TSMC for advanced semiconductor manufacturing, particularly in response to growing demand for AI-related technologies and products [1][2] Group 1: TSMC's Expansion Plans - TSMC is accelerating the production timeline for its Arizona facilities, with the first factory now expected to begin mass production of 4nm chips in Q4 2024, ahead of the original 2025 schedule [1] - The second factory, initially set for 2028, is now targeted for production in early 2027 or possibly within 2026 [1] - The third factory is anticipated to start production of N2 and A16 processes by around 2028, which is at least four quarters earlier than planned [1] Group 2: Client Demand and Partnerships - NVIDIA's CEO recently visited TSMC to discuss the production of the next-generation Rubin platform, which includes six confirmed product designs [1] - AI giants like OpenAI are also rapidly increasing their demand for TSMC's advanced manufacturing capabilities, collaborating with major clients such as Broadcom and Marvell [2] - Intel, despite receiving government investment, is still outsourcing more orders to TSMC due to its own production capacity limitations [2] Group 3: Financial Implications - TSMC has acknowledged that the ramp-up of overseas wafer fabs will dilute its gross margin starting in 2025, with an initial impact of about 2% to 3% per year, increasing to 3% to 4% in later years [2] - The support from U.S. clients is crucial for the rapid growth and profitability of TSMC's new facilities in the U.S. [2] - TSMC plans to mitigate margin pressures by expanding operations in Arizona and improving cost structures while maintaining close collaboration with clients and suppliers [2]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's 2nm process is set to begin mass production in the second half of this year, with strong demand from major clients like Apple, AMD, and Intel, leading to significant capacity expansion plans [1][2] Group 1: Production Capacity - TSMC plans to increase its 2nm monthly production capacity from 40,000 wafers by the end of this year to 100,000 wafers next year, representing a 150% increase [1] - By 2027, TSMC aims to further expand its 2nm capacity to between 160,000 and 180,000 wafers, with the potential to reach 200,000 wafers if demand exceeds expectations [1][2] - Currently, TSMC's advanced process capacities include approximately 160,000 wafers for the 7nm process, slightly over 160,000 for the 5nm process, and about 130,000 wafers for the 3nm process, with potential adjustments to reach 160,000 wafers [2] Group 2: Client Demand and Market Position - Major clients expected to adopt TSMC's 2nm process include Apple, AMD, Intel, Qualcomm, MediaTek, and NVIDIA, indicating a broad market interest [1][2] - TSMC's advanced process expansion is anticipated to drive revenue growth, as newer processes command higher pricing, benefiting the company's operational performance [2] - The company expects that the number of product designs utilizing its 2nm technology in the first two years will surpass those for the 3nm and 5nm processes during their respective initial periods [2]

Core Insights - Counterpoint Research indicates that Apple, Qualcomm, and MediaTek are expected to launch 2nm system-on-chip (SoC) in the second half of 2026, with TSMC likely as the manufacturer [1] - The adoption of 3nm and 2nm nodes is accelerating due to the integration of more AI features in devices, driven primarily by Apple, which will have over 80% of its product line using 3nm technology this year [1] - The overall cost of SoCs is rising due to increased semiconductor content and wafer price hikes, with one-third of smartphone SoCs projected to adopt 3nm and 2nm technologies by 2026 [1] Company and Industry Analysis - TSMC is expected to begin packaging tests for the 2nm node in the second half of 2025 and achieve mass production by 2026, with Apple, Qualcomm, and MediaTek anticipated to release their flagship SoCs by the end of 2026 [1] - TSMC currently holds approximately two-thirds of the semiconductor foundry market share as of Q4 2024 [1] - TSMC is projected to account for 87% of the total shipment volume of smartphone SoCs at 5nm and below (3nm and 2nm nodes), with this share expected to grow to 89% by the end of 2028 [2] - Major clients like Apple, Qualcomm, and MediaTek rely heavily on TSMC, which may hinder Samsung's foundry competitiveness in advanced nodes due to past yield issues affecting the 3nm process [2]

点击招商研究小程序查看PDF报告原文 台积电（TSMC，2330.TW）于4月17日发布2025年第一季度财报，25Q1收入255.3亿美元，同比+35. 3%/环比-5.1%；毛利率58.8%，同比+5.7pcts/环比-0.2pcts。公司指引AI加速芯片营收增长强劲，25Q2 收入预计同比加速增长，尚未看到关税带来客户提前拉货。综合财报及交流会议信息，总结要点如下： 评论： 1、25Q1收入符合指引预期，毛利率位于指引上限。 25Q1收入255.3亿美元，符合指引预期（250-258亿美元），以美元计同比+35.3%/环比-5.1%；环比下降 系智能手机季节性因素影响，部分被AI相关需求持续增长所抵消；毛利率58.8%，位于指引上限（57-5 9%），同比+5.7pcts/环比-0.2pcts，主要系地震及海外产能扩张所稀释，部分被成本改善措施抵消；公 司25Q1 EPS为13.94新台币，ROE为32.7%，ASP 3482美元/环比-0.4%。 2、HPC收入占比继续提升，7nm及以下收入占比73%。 1）按技术节点划分： 25Q1 3/5/7nm收入分别占比22%/36%/15%，7nm及以下先进 ...