Core Viewpoint - ASMPT reported a revenue of HKD 36.6 billion for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.6% [1] - The company anticipates optimistic revenue guidance for Q4, projecting between USD 4.70 billion and USD 5.30 billion, with a median growth of 14.3% year-on-year and 6.8% quarter-on-quarter [1] Business Performance - SMT business showed strong revenue growth, reaching HKD 17.8 billion, with year-on-year growth of 14.6% and quarter-on-quarter growth of 28.0%, driven by demand from AI servers and electric vehicles in Asia [1] - SEMI business revenue was HKD 18.8 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, primarily due to strong demand for power management applications [1] Orders and Market Trends - The order amount for Q3 was HKD 36.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.2% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.5% [1] - SMT orders increased by 51.8% year-on-year to HKD 19.9 billion, driven by strong momentum in telecommunications and electric vehicles, although there was a quarter-on-quarter decline of 5.0% due to high base effects from Q2 smartphone orders [1] Advanced Packaging Developments - The company secured multiple orders for the HBM4 12H TCB solution, maintaining its position as a major supplier [3] - The C2W TCB solution has successfully passed final verification and is preparing for mass production [3] - Advanced packaging demand is expected to remain strong, particularly in the storage sector, with significant contributions anticipated in 2026 [3] Investment Recommendations - The target price has been raised to HKD 103.6, maintaining a "buy" rating, reflecting confidence in SMT order recovery and advanced packaging demand [4] - Adjustments were made to the 2025 estimated net profit, down by 28% to HKD 3.4 billion, while revenue estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 were increased by 2%, 3%, and 3% respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - After significant stock price increases in recent months, most positive fundamentals are believed to be reflected, suggesting a profit-taking strategy in a generally bullish market [1][7]. Group 1: Stock Ratings Adjustments - Eoptolink's rating has been downgraded from "Buy" to "Neutral" due to a 338% year-on-year growth in Q2 2025, with expectations of a significant slowdown in growth in the coming quarters [3][7]. - Innolight maintains a "Buy" rating as it is a pioneer in the new 1.6T product, expected to achieve significant growth in 2026, indicating more upside potential [6][19]. - TFC's rating has been downgraded to "Neutral" as its growth potential is already reflected in the current stock price, which exceeds +1 standard deviation [9][19]. - Accelink's rating remains "Neutral" due to weak fundamentals and high valuation compared to peers [8][19]. Group 2: Stock Performance Overview - All transceiver stocks have seen substantial increases, with Eoptolink up 460%, Innolight up 312%, TFC up 269%, and Accelink up 62% since April 1 [1][11]. - Despite a 12% year-on-year decline in revenue, ZTE's H-shares have risen 49% this year, reflecting optimism in AI infrastructure [3][15]. - YOFC's H-shares have surged 319% despite a 22% decline in revenue, driven by high-end fiber products with significant applications in AI infrastructure [3][15]. Group 3: Future Growth Catalysts - The anticipated rapid growth in 1.6T transceiver shipments is expected to be a catalyst for revenue and earnings in the second half of 2025 and into 2026 [13][19]. - The demand for 800G is expected to remain strong, potentially offsetting pricing and volume pressures from lower-end transceivers [13][19]. - Companies have completed the new product validation phase for 1.6T products, indicating readiness for commercial production starting in 2025-2026 [13][19]. Group 4: Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Earnings forecasts for Innolight, Eoptolink, Accelink, and TFC have been raised due to their strong performance in Q2 2025, while ZTE's forecast has been downgraded due to unmet earnings expectations [23][24]. - The positive growth momentum for 800G demand is expected to continue, with 1.6T shipments accelerating in the coming quarters, making 2025 a year with strong growth potential [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - Coherent's stock plummeted nearly 20% in pre-market trading due to disappointing revenue guidance for the next quarter, despite reporting strong revenue growth driven by AI data center investments [2][5]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, Coherent reported revenue of $5.81 billion, a 23% increase year-over-year, with a GAAP gross margin of 35.2%, up 424 basis points from the previous year [3]. - The fourth quarter revenue reached a record $1.53 billion, reflecting a 16% year-over-year growth and a 2% quarter-over-quarter increase [3][4]. - Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $1.00, compared to $0.91 in the previous quarter and $0.51 in the same quarter last year [4]. Future Guidance - Coherent expects next quarter's revenue to be between $1.46 billion and $1.6 billion, which is below market expectations, raising concerns among investors [5]. - The company anticipates a non-GAAP gross margin between 37.5% and 39.5% for the next quarter, with total operating expenses projected to be between $290 million and $310 million [6]. Market Trends - The demand for AI data centers significantly boosted Coherent's network business, with data center revenue growing over 60% year-over-year [7]. - The global Ethernet optical module market is projected to reach $10 billion in 2024, nearly doubling year-over-year, with a continued growth rate of around 50% in 2025 [8]. - Approximately 80% of market demand for optical modules is driven by AI data centers, which are primarily supporting high-performance networks [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - Coherent's stock plummeted nearly 20% in pre-market trading due to disappointing revenue guidance for the next quarter, despite reporting record revenue growth driven by AI data center investments [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, Coherent reported a record revenue of $1.53 billion, a 16% year-over-year increase [1][4]. - The total revenue for fiscal year 2025 reached $5.81 billion, up 23% from the previous year [4]. - GAAP gross margin was 35.2%, an increase of 424 basis points year-over-year, while non-GAAP gross margin was 37.9%, up 358 basis points [3][4]. - Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter was $1.00, compared to $0.51 in the same quarter last year [4]. Market Concerns - The company expects next quarter's revenue to be between $1.46 billion and $1.6 billion, which is below market expectations, causing investor concern [1][4]. - The anticipated sale of aerospace and defense business is expected to generate approximately $20 million in revenue, which is not included in the next quarter's guidance [4]. AI Data Center Demand - Coherent's network business is benefiting significantly from the surge in AI data center investments, with data center revenue growing over 60% year-over-year [6]. - The company anticipates continued strong demand for 800G transceivers, with initial shipments of 1.6T transceivers also contributing to revenue growth [6]. Industry Outlook - According to LightCounting, the global Ethernet optical module market is projected to reach $10 billion in 2024, nearly doubling year-over-year, with a growth rate of around 50% in 2025 [7]. - Approximately 80% of market demand is driven by AI data centers, which are primarily supported by high-performance networks [7]. - The evolution of AI data center architectures is expected to sustain high-end optical module demand, providing long-term growth momentum for the industry [7].

Core Viewpoint - Coherent's stock plummeted nearly 20% in pre-market trading due to disappointing revenue guidance for the next quarter, despite achieving record revenue in the fourth quarter driven by AI data center investments [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, Coherent reported revenue of $5.81 billion, a 23% increase year-over-year, with a GAAP gross margin of 35.2%, up 424 basis points from the previous year [2]. - The fourth quarter revenue reached a record $1.53 billion, reflecting a 16% year-over-year growth and a 2% quarter-over-quarter increase [2][4]. - Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $1.00, compared to $0.91 in the previous quarter and $0.51 in the same quarter last year [4]. Market Outlook - The company anticipates next quarter's revenue to be between $1.46 billion and $1.6 billion, which is below market expectations, raising concerns among investors [4][5]. - Coherent's network business is benefiting from a surge in AI data center investments, with data center revenue growing over 60% year-over-year [7]. - The demand for 800G transceivers is expected to continue increasing, with initial shipments of 1.6T transceivers also contributing to revenue growth [7]. Industry Trends - Approximately 80% of market demand for optical modules is driven by AI data centers, primarily supporting high-performance networks [8]. - The global Ethernet optical module market is projected to reach $10 billion in 2024, nearly doubling year-over-year, with a sustained growth rate of around 50% in 2025 [8]. - The evolution of AI data center architectures is expected to drive long-term demand for high-end optical modules, providing growth momentum for the industry [8].

Core Viewpoint - Coherent's stock plummeted nearly 20% in pre-market trading due to disappointing revenue guidance for the upcoming quarter, despite strong performance in the previous fiscal year driven by AI data center investments [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - For the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, Coherent reported a record revenue of $1.53 billion, a 16% year-over-year increase [2][6]. - The total revenue for fiscal year 2025 reached $5.81 billion, up 23% from the previous year, with a GAAP gross margin of 35.2%, an increase of 424 basis points [5][6]. - Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $1.00, compared to $0.91 in the previous quarter and $0.51 in the same quarter last year [8]. Future Guidance - Coherent expects revenue for the next quarter to be between $1.46 billion and $1.6 billion, which is below market expectations, raising concerns among investors [2][8]. - The company anticipates a non-GAAP gross margin between 37.5% and 39.5% for the upcoming quarter [9]. Market Dynamics - The demand for AI data centers significantly boosted Coherent's network business, with a growth rate exceeding 60% for the year [11]. - The market for Ethernet optical modules is projected to reach $10 billion in 2024, with a nearly 100% year-over-year increase, driven primarily by AI data center demand [12]. Industry Outlook - The evolution of AI data center architectures is expected to sustain high-end optical module demand, providing long-term growth momentum for the industry [12].