Core Viewpoint - The report from Caitong Securities indicates that Li Auto-W (02015) has a robust profitability, driven by its smart technology and organizational upgrades, which provide long-term growth potential [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - Caitong Securities forecasts that Li Auto will achieve Non-GAAP net profits of 4.7 billion, 8 billion, and 12.4 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 32x, 19x, and 12x [1] Group 2: Product Development and Market Position - The i6 model is expected to drive volume growth, with a significant acceleration in the pure electric vehicle layout starting in 2025. The i6 has already received over 50,000 orders within two weeks of its launch, indicating strong market demand [2] - The i6 offers a competitive edge in terms of cost-effectiveness, outperforming Tesla's Model Y and Xiaomi's YU7 in dimensions, comfort, and features. It includes premium features at a lower price point, enhancing its appeal to mainstream consumers [2] Group 3: Technological Advancements - Li Auto has been developing its self-research algorithms since 2021, with the third generation expected to be completed in 2024. The ADMax system is projected to have a penetration rate of 75.4% in models priced above 300,000 yuan and 84.6% in those above 400,000 yuan by 2024 [3] - The company plans to expand its AI strategy, exploring applications in humanoid robotics, which could significantly enhance its long-term growth potential and valuation [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Auto, indicating an expected relative performance above the market benchmark over the next 12-18 months [10][19]. Core Insights - Li Auto's revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 144.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17%. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of RMB 44.3 billion, up 6% year-on-year and 3% quarter-on-quarter [3][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to be RMB 8 billion, down 31% year-on-year, with Q4 2024 net profit at RMB 3.5 billion, down 38% year-on-year but up 25% quarter-on-quarter [3][10]. - For Q1 2025, vehicle deliveries are anticipated to be between 88,000 and 93,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.5% to 15.7%. Total revenue for this period is expected to be between RMB 23.4 billion and RMB 24.7 billion, down 8.7% to 3.5% year-on-year [3][10]. Financial Data Summary - Key financial metrics for Li Auto from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - Revenue (in million RMB): 2023: 123,851; 2024: 144,460; 2025E: 189,483; 2026E: 210,516; 2027E: 230,781, with year-on-year growth rates of 173.5%, 16.6%, 31.2%, 11.1%, and 9.6% respectively [2][3]. - Net Profit (in million RMB): 2023: 11,704; 2024: 8,032; 2025E: 13,146; 2026E: 15,434; 2027E: 17,955, with year-on-year growth rates of 681.7%, -31.4%, 63.7%, 16.6%, and 15.9% respectively [2][3]. - Fully Diluted EPS (in RMB): 2023: 5.52; 2024: 3.79; 2025E: 6.19; 2026E: 7.27; 2027E: 8.46 [2][3]. Market Position and Strategy - Li Auto is focusing on enhancing user experience through intensive OTA upgrades, which have led to an increase in the order proportion of the ADMax version, particularly in models priced above RMB 300,000 [3][10]. - The company is set to launch its first pure electric SUV, the Li Auto i8, in July 2025, as part of its dual-energy strategy, while also expanding its charging network with 1,874 supercharging stations and 10,008 charging poles by February 2025 [3][10].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Li Auto will not release a 2025 version of the Li L series and Li MEGA, but will instead launch an "Intelligent Driving Renewal Version" based on the current models in May this year [1] - The battery, electric drive, exterior, and interior design will remain consistent with the current models [1] - The ADMax system will upgrade from dual Orin-X chips from NVIDIA to a single Thor-U chip, while the ADPro system will upgrade from Horizon J5 chips to J6M chips, and will also include additional LiDAR [1]