丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨理想汽车-W（02015.HK） [Table_Title] 理想汽车三季报点评：MEGA 召回短期影响盈 利，转型具身智能战略打开公司远期空间 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025Q3 理想销量 9.3 万辆，同比-39.0%，实现营收 273.6 亿元，同比-36.2%，车辆毛利率达 15.5%，同比-5.4pct。理想汽车产品优势和品牌设计深入人心，后续车型规划清晰，直营渠道 结构持续优化，"双能战略"有望进一步扩大理想汽车的优势，未来销量空间广阔。 分析师及联系人 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 理想汽车-W（02015.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 理想汽车三季报点评： 2] MEGA 召回短期影响盈 利，转型具身智能战略打开公司远期空间 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524070004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Ta ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨理想汽车-W（02015.HK） [Table_Title] 理想汽车点评：11 月销量 3.3 万辆，看好公司 管理及战略转型后带来销量及经营改善 报告要点 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524070004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_Summary] 理想 2025 年 11 月销量 3.3 万辆，同比下降 31.9%，环比增长 4.5%。理想汽车产品优势和品 牌设计深入人心，后续车型规划清晰，直营渠道结构持续优化，"双能战略"有望进一步扩大理 想汽车的优势，未来销量空间广阔。 分析师及联系人 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 理想汽车-W（02015.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 理想汽车点评：2] 11 月销量 3.3 万辆，看好公司 管理及战略转型后带来销量及经营改善 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 理想 202 ...

2025 年9 月26 日，理想i6 正式上市。 事件评论 理想i6 定价24.98 万元，首销权益3.5 万元，上市即交付。价格方面，理想i6 售价24.98万元，上市至10 月底下定可享受价值3.5 万元的首销权益（现金减免1.0 万元、双腔空悬1.5 万元、压缩机冷暖箱0.5 万 元、静音电吸门0.5 万元）。尺寸方面，理想i6 长宽分别为4950/1935mm，高1670（螺簧）/1655（空 簧）mm，轴距3000mm，低风阻造型下，i6 相较竞品空间具有一定优势。续航方面，理想i6 CLTC 纯电 续航660-720km，百公里耗电量13.6-14.8kWh/100km，在低风阻造型加5C 快充配置下相较竞品电耗更 小、里程焦虑更小。智驾方面，理想i6 全系标配Thor-U 芯片,搭载VLA 司机大模型，理想同学智能体能 力持续进化。其他配置方面，具备超大后备箱储物空间、可选配原厂拖挂套装等丰富配置。上市即交 付，理想i6 将于9 月27 日正式开启交付。理想i6 发布会整体向年轻化转型，新车产品竞争力强，未来 有望开拓新用户群体，打开理想整体销量空间。 机构：长江证券 研究员：高伊楠/王子豪 事 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6][8]. Core Views - The official launch of the Li Auto i6, priced at 249,800 CNY, with a first-sale benefit of 35,000 CNY, allows for immediate delivery [2][6]. - Li Auto's product advantages and brand design are well recognized, with a clear roadmap for future models and continuous optimization of direct sales channels [2][6]. - The "Dual Energy Strategy" is expected to further enhance Li Auto's competitive edge, indicating significant future sales potential [2][6]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The Li Auto i6 was officially launched on September 26, 2025 [4]. Event Commentary - Li Auto's intelligent driving technology remains leading, with continuous iterations expected to benefit from the accelerating penetration rate in the industry [6]. - The company anticipates strong sales growth with the introduction of new models, supported by high single-vehicle prices and scale effects, maintaining good profitability levels [6]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 3.23 billion, 8.38 billion, and 11.68 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 60.7X, 23.4X, and 16.8X for GAAP, and 5.23 billion, 10.38 billion, and 13.68 billion CNY for Non-GAAP [6]. Product and Market Strategy - The Li Auto i6 features a range of specifications, including a pure electric range of 660-720 km and a low energy consumption of 13.6-14.8 kWh/100 km [6]. - The company has established over 3,300 supercharging stations across 267 cities, with plans to reach 4,000 by the end of the year [6]. - Li Auto's product lineup now includes four extended-range electric SUVs and two high-voltage pure electric SUVs, indicating a robust product matrix [6]. Retail and Service Network - As of the end of August 2025, Li Auto has 543 retail centers and 536 service and authorized repair centers across 222 cities, reflecting ongoing optimization of its channel structure [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6][8]. Core Views - In August 2025, the company sold 29,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year decline of 40.7% and a month-on-month decline of 7.2%. The company has a clear product planning and continues to optimize its direct sales channel structure, with the "dual-energy strategy" expected to further enhance its advantages, indicating a broad future sales potential [2][4][6]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In August 2025, the company achieved sales of 28,529 vehicles, down 40.7% year-on-year and down 7.2% month-on-month. Cumulatively, from January to August, total sales reached 263,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decline of 8.6%. Weekly sales data shows fluctuations, with the highest weekly sales reaching 0.76 million vehicles in the 34th week [4][6][8]. Future Outlook - The company expects September sales to range between 31,000 to 36,000 vehicles, with a year-on-year decline of 42.8% to 33.5%, but a month-on-month increase of 7.8% to 25.3%. The MEGA production capacity is anticipated to exceed 3,500 vehicles, and the i6 model is set to launch in September, which is expected to open up new customer segments [6][8]. Product and Technology Development - The company continues to lead in intelligent driving technology, with ongoing iterations expected to benefit from the accelerating penetration rate in the industry. The upcoming new models will enhance the product matrix and overall sales potential. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 3.14 billion, 8.48 billion, and 12.61 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 57.8X, 21.4X, and 14.4X [6][8]. Infrastructure and Channel Expansion - As of August 2025, the company has established 3,190 supercharging stations and 17,597 charging piles, with plans to reach 4,000 supercharging stations by the end of the year. The company has also expanded its retail and service network, with 543 retail centers and 536 service centers across 156 and 222 cities, respectively [6][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - In July 2025, the company sold 30,731 vehicles, representing a year-on-year decline of 39.7% and a month-on-month decline of 15.3%. This decline is attributed to a seasonal slowdown and the upcoming launch of the i8 model. Cumulative sales from January to July 2025 reached 235,000 vehicles, down 2.2% year-on-year. The company has a clear product roadmap and is optimizing its direct sales channels, which is expected to expand its market advantage and sales potential in the future [2][4][8]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In July 2025, the company recorded sales of 30,731 vehicles, a decrease of 39.7% year-on-year and 15.3% month-on-month. The cumulative sales for the first seven months of 2025 were 235,000 vehicles, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.2% [2][4][8]. Product Launch and Strategy - The i8, the company's first pure electric SUV, has been officially launched and is set to begin deliveries on August 20, 2025. This new model is expected to significantly boost sales as it opens a new product cycle for the company. The company is also planning to launch additional models, including the i6, which is scheduled for September 2025 [8]. Infrastructure and Technology - The company has established over 10,000 supercharging stations nationwide, with 3,028 supercharging stations operational as of the end of July 2025. The company aims to have 4,000 supercharging stations by the end of the year. Additionally, advancements in smart driving technology are expected to enhance user experience and further solidify the company's competitive edge [8]. Future Outlook - The company is set to accelerate the launch of high-pressure pure electric products in the second half of the year, with a total of four range-extended electric SUVs and two high-pressure pure electric SUVs planned. This robust product lineup is anticipated to significantly increase sales potential. The company has also optimized its retail channel structure, with 535 retail centers and 527 after-sales service centers established across 222 cities by the end of July 2025 [8]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is estimated to be 8.3 billion, 12.5 billion, and 16.0 billion respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 23.6X, 15.7X, and 12.2X for GAAP net profit, and 19.0X, 13.5X, and 10.9X for Non-GAAP net profit [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The official launch of the Li Auto i8, priced between 321,800 to 369,800 CNY, features the AD Max version equipped with the VLA model. The product advantages and brand design of Li Auto are well recognized, with a clear future model planning and continuous optimization of direct sales channels. The "dual-energy strategy" is expected to further enhance Li Auto's advantages, indicating a broad future sales potential [2][4]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The Li Auto i8 was officially launched on July 29, 2025 [4]. Product Pricing and Specifications - The pricing for the i8 includes Pro version at 321,800 CNY, Max version at 349,800 CNY, and Ultra version at 369,800 CNY, with a maximum first-sale benefit of 51,900 CNY available until September 7. The dimensions of the i8 are 5085mm in length, 1960mm in width, and 1740mm in height, with a wheelbase of 3050mm. The i8 offers a CLTC pure electric range of 670-720 km and a power consumption of 14.6-14.8 kWh/100 km, showcasing lower energy consumption compared to competitors [2][7]. Charging Infrastructure and Smart Technology - As of July 29, 2025, Li Auto has over 10,000 supercharging piles nationwide, with 3,000 supercharging stations and 16,000 supercharging piles in operation. The company plans to have 4,000 supercharging stations by the end of the year. The smart driving technology continues to evolve, with the latest OTA 7.4 version update enhancing the capabilities of the Li Auto intelligent assistant [2][7]. Future Model Planning and Sales Potential - Li Auto has a clear future model planning with the i8's launch, followed by the i6 model set to launch in September. The company aims to have a product lineup of four range-extended electric SUVs and two high-voltage pure electric SUVs, which is expected to significantly increase sales volume. As of June 2025, Li Auto has 530 retail centers across 151 cities, with ongoing optimization of its channel structure [2][7]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for Li Auto from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at 8.3 billion, 12.48 billion, and 16.01 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 23.6X, 15.7X, and 12.2X for GAAP, and 10.3 billion, 14.48 billion, and 18.01 billion CNY for Non-GAAP, with PE ratios of 19.0X, 13.5X, and 10.9X [2][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6][7]. Core Views - In June 2025, the company sold 36,279 vehicles, representing a year-on-year decline of 24.1% and a month-on-month decline of 11.2%. However, the sales slightly exceeded the previously adjusted delivery guidance [2][8]. - The company's product advantages and brand design are well recognized, and the "dual-energy strategy" is expected to further enhance its competitive edge. The upcoming new models are anticipated to significantly contribute to sales growth [6][8]. - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders (GAAP) of 8.3 billion, 12.4 billion, and 15.7 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 25.1X, 16.8X, and 13.3X. The non-GAAP net profit estimates are 10.3 billion, 14.4 billion, and 17.7 billion yuan, with PE ratios of 20.3X, 14.5X, and 11.8X [6]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The company reported a total of 111,000 vehicles sold in the second quarter of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.6%. Cumulatively, 204,000 vehicles were sold in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [8]. Product and Technology Development - The company is set to launch its first pure electric SUV, the i8, in July 2025, followed by the i6 in September 2025. This will expand its product lineup to include four range-extended electric SUVs and two high-voltage pure electric SUVs [6][8]. - The company has established over 10,000 supercharging stations nationwide, with 2,851 stations operational as of June 2025, and plans to increase this number to 4,000 by the end of the year [8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its direct sales channels, with 530 retail centers established across 151 cities as of June 2025. This is an increase of 24 centers from the previous month [8].

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto reported a revenue of 25.93 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 650 million yuan, up 9.7% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Li Auto achieved a vehicle sales revenue of 24.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with an average selling price of 266,000 yuan per vehicle, down 36,000 yuan year-on-year and 3,000 yuan quarter-on-quarter [1][2] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 20.5%, with a vehicle gross margin of 19.8%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points due to cost reductions and smaller promotional discounts [2] - The company expects Q2 2025 deliveries to be between 123,000 and 128,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% to 17.9%, with projected revenue of 32.5 billion to 33.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% to 6.7% [2] Group 2: Product and Market Strategy - Li Auto has established a product lineup of "4 range-extended electric vehicle models + 1 high-voltage pure electric model," covering the market above 200,000 yuan, with a strong new vehicle launch cycle expected in 2025 [3] - The company has optimized its channel structure, with 500 retail centers across 151 cities as of the end of April 2025, and has increased its supercharging stations to 2,267, with 12,340 charging piles [3] - The introduction of new models is anticipated to enhance Li Auto's product matrix and overall sales potential, with high vehicle prices and scale effects expected to maintain good profitability [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Li Auto's projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 9.09 billion, 12.72 billion, and 17.12 billion yuan (GAAP), with corresponding PE ratios of 23.4X, 16.7X, and 12.4X [4] - Non-GAAP net profits for the same period are expected to be 11.09 billion, 14.72 billion, and 19.12 billion yuan, with PE ratios of 19.2X, 14.4X, and 11.1X [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved sales of 93,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, with revenue reaching 25.93 billion yuan, up 1.1% year-on-year. The vehicle gross margin was 19.8%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. The company's product advantages and brand design are well recognized, and the future vehicle planning is clear, indicating a broad sales potential [2][5]. Summary by Sections Sales and Revenue - In Q1 2025, the company sold 93,000 vehicles, with an average selling price of approximately 266,000 yuan. The sales figures for different models were as follows: L6 (44,000 units), L7 (21,000 units), L8 (13,000 units), L9 (12,000 units), and MEGA (2,000 units). The L6 model accounted for 48% of total sales, with a slight decrease of 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [7]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 25.93 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with vehicle sales contributing 24.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. The gross margin improved to 20.5%, with vehicle gross margin at 19.8%, benefiting from cost reductions and changes in pricing strategies. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 650 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7% [5][7]. Future Outlook - For Q2 2025, the company expects to deliver between 123,000 and 128,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.3% to 17.9%. Revenue is projected to be between 32.5 billion and 33.8 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5% to 6.7% year-on-year. The company has a clear product roadmap with a focus on expanding its sales channels, having established 500 retail centers across 151 cities by the end of April 2025 [5][7]. Product Strategy - The company has developed a product matrix consisting of four extended-range electric vehicle models and one high-voltage pure electric model, targeting the market above 200,000 yuan. The upcoming new vehicle launches are expected to enhance the overall sales potential, with high average selling prices and scale effects likely to sustain profitability [5][7].