手握巨额AI基建相关订单，已经不足以"保护"一家公司。 甲骨文手握5000亿美元订单，股价从9月巅峰已经一路下跌40%。博通目前积压的AI产品订单约为730亿美元，最新财报发布后股价由涨转跌。 人称"英伟达亲儿子"的CoreWave季度营收十几亿美元，却能在一周内拿下OpenAI和Meta超过360亿美元的订单。过去一个月，该公司股价累计下跌17%。 外界固然担忧它们是否有足够的能力（金钱）满足客户，但同时也担忧客户本身是不是真的"靠谱"。 AI基建的洋葱剥到最后就是那几家：Meta、谷歌母公司Alphabet、微软、亚马逊、苹果、英伟达等几家巨头，再加上OpenAI、Anthropic等明星AI初创公 司。 明星创企还很稚嫩，搞基建几乎全得靠外部融资，风险明显。 巨头们本应是定海神针一样的存在——它们财务稳健、现金充沛，正在用数千亿美元的疯狂基建计划填满未来几年。 但站在支出C位的AI带给它们的回报仍属微小，用"老本"滋养新梦想会不会拖垮巨头，全看梦想的兑现够不够及时。 成则皆大欢喜，败则可能满盘皆输。 01 手握"未来"这张牌，甲骨文短短几个月经历了大喜与大悲。 大喜降临时，甲骨文股价单日飙升40%，创始 ...

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank suggests that the market's bearish sentiment towards Oracle (ORCL.US) may actually signal a bullish opportunity, despite investor concerns over high expenditures and their impact on financial health [1][2] Group 1: Financial Projections - Deutsche Bank analyst Brad Zelnick indicates that if Oracle's projections for fiscal year 2030 exclude any revenue and expenses from OpenAI, the earnings per share (EPS) could decrease by $4 to $17, and free cash flow (FCF) could drop by $10 billion to $31 billion [1] - Discounting these figures to present value suggests that Oracle's current stock price of approximately $200 does not reflect any valuation premium from its relationship with OpenAI [1] Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Concerns - Deutsche Bank maintains a "Buy" rating on Oracle with a target price of $375, acknowledging investor concerns regarding lease liabilities but suggesting these liabilities may possess significant flexibility [1] - If lease liabilities become a burden, EPS could fall to around $15, and FCF could decrease to about $26 billion [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Growth Potential - The current stock price corresponds to a 27x price-to-earnings ratio based on the consensus EPS for the 2026 calendar year, which is impacted by upfront costs associated with expanding AI business [2] - Despite recognizing financial and operational risks, the analyst believes these risks are outweighed by substantial opportunities, as OpenAI's business backlog represents reliable investment returns, confirming Oracle's leadership in large-scale AI cloud infrastructure deployment [2]

Core Viewpoints - CoreWeave's stock plummeted 16% due to disappointing performance guidance, with speculation that partner Core Scientific is responsible for data center delivery delays [3][4] - CEO Mike Intrator's ambiguous statements regarding the delays have heightened market anxiety, initially referring to a "single data center delay" before correcting to "single data center supplier" [3][5] - Core Scientific's stock also fell 10% following the news, reflecting investor concerns about the implications of the delays [3][4] Performance Guidance and Financials - CoreWeave reported a strong Q3 revenue of $1.36 billion, a 134% increase from $583.9 million year-over-year [9] - However, the company lowered its 2025 revenue forecast to between $5.05 billion and $5.15 billion, below the analyst consensus of $5.29 billion, which negatively impacted investor confidence [10] Contractual Developments - CoreWeave has secured significant contracts, including a $14.2 billion AI cloud infrastructure deal with Meta and an expanded contract worth $22.4 billion with OpenAI [11][12] - The delays in data center construction pose a direct threat to the company's ability to convert these contracts into actual revenue, raising concerns about execution risks among investors [12] Management Statements - During a recent earnings call, Intrator indicated that only one data center was affected, while CFO Nitin Agrawal attributed the delays to a single supplier [6] - CoreWeave has deployed its personnel on-site to collaborate with contractors and Core Scientific's team to expedite project timelines, confirming market speculations about the delays [7]

Core Insights - Microsoft plans to invest nearly $8 billion in the UAE by 2029, with over $5.5 billion allocated for AI and cloud infrastructure expansion [1] Investment Details - The investment will occur over the next four years, totaling more than $7.9 billion [1] - A significant portion of the investment is focused on enhancing AI capabilities and cloud infrastructure [1] Export Approval - The U.S. has granted Microsoft permission to export NVIDIA AI chips to the UAE for the first time [1]

Group 1 - Gold stocks weakened, with Harmony Gold down 3.2% and Coeur Mining down 3.3% [1] - Spot gold fell below $3,800 [1] - Spotify shares dropped 3.2% as the founder and CEO announced plans to step down [1] Group 2 - Firefly Aerospace experienced a significant decline of 13.8% after a rocket booster exploded during a pre-flight test at its Texas facility [1] - CoreWeave shares rose 11.4% as the company secured a $14.2 billion AI cloud infrastructure deal with Meta [1] - Wolfspeed shares surged 29.5% following the announcement of exiting bankruptcy protection [1]