Core Viewpoint - The company shows a significant improvement in profitability with adjusted operating profit increasing by over 30% year-on-year, despite a slight decline in revenue due to a more cautious operational strategy in social entertainment services [1]. Financial Performance - In 2025, revenue is projected to be 7.759 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 2.748 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 76.0% [1]. - Adjusted operating profit is forecasted at 1.734 billion yuan, up 32.4% year-on-year, driven by continuous optimization of marketing expenses and content costs [1]. - The adjusted net profit is anticipated to be 2.860 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 68.2%, with a significant tax benefit impacting the figures [1]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2025 is expected to be 35.7%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted operating profit margin is projected at 22.34%, up 5.9 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Sales expenses are forecasted to be 409 million yuan, down 33.2% year-on-year, indicating a reduction in the sales expense ratio by 2.42 percentage points [1]. User Growth and Revenue Streams - The company anticipates online music business revenue of 5.994 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, with subscription revenue contributing 5.053 billion yuan, up 13.3% due to enhanced user experience and membership benefits [2]. - The number of paid users is increasing, contributing to the growth in online music subscription revenue, while the monthly active users (MAU) remain stable with a daily active users (DAU) to MAU ratio above 30% [2]. Cost Management - Content service costs are expected to be 3.734 billion yuan in 2025, down 6.9% year-on-year, accounting for 48.1% of revenue, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points [3]. - Promotion and advertising expenses are projected at 296 million yuan, a significant reduction of 43.1% year-on-year, reflecting a more cautious promotional strategy [3]. Content Expansion and AI Features - The company is expanding its music copyright content by introducing new K-Pop labels and nurturing independent musicians, with over 1 million registered independent musicians by the end of 2025 [3]. - New AI features have been launched, including an AI singing assistant and personalized player backgrounds, enhancing the overall music experience [3]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2026-2028 are 8.479 billion yuan, 9.116 billion yuan, and 9.699 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit estimates of 2.059 billion yuan, 2.274 billion yuan, and 2.476 billion yuan [4]. - The adjusted net profit for the same period is projected at 2.179 billion yuan, 2.404 billion yuan, and 2.617 billion yuan, corresponding to adjusted P/E ratios of 14, 13, and 12 times [4].

Core Viewpoint - Guohai Securities projects that NetEase Cloud Music (09899) will achieve revenues of 8.479 billion, 9.116 billion, and 9.699 billion yuan from 2026 to 2028, with net profits of 2.059 billion, 2.274 billion, and 2.476 billion yuan respectively, and adjusted net profits of 2.179 billion, 2.404 billion, and 2.617 billion yuan, corresponding to adjusted P/E ratios of 14, 13, and 12 times. The company is a leading online music platform in China, with a continuous increase in paying users driving high growth in subscription revenue, and long-term operational leverage gradually releasing, enhancing profitability. Therefore, a "Buy" rating is maintained [1][8]. Financial Performance - In 2025, the revenue is expected to reach 7.759 billion yuan, primarily due to a more prudent operational strategy for social entertainment services. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected at 2.748 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.0%. Adjusted operating profit is estimated at 1.734 billion yuan, up 32.4% year-on-year, driven by continuous optimization of marketing expenses and content costs. Adjusted net profit is forecasted at 2.860 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.2%, with a tax expense of -678 million yuan [2][9]. - The gross margin for 2025 is expected to be 35.7%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year. The adjusted operating profit margin is projected at 22.34%, up 5.9 percentage points year-on-year, with sales expenses of 409 million yuan. By the end of 2025, cash on hand is expected to be 12.175 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.2% [2][9]. Revenue and Cost Structure - Revenue from the online music business in 2025 is projected to be 5.994 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, with subscription revenue of 5.053 billion yuan, up 13.3% year-on-year. This growth is attributed to enhanced user experience, upgraded membership benefits, and a rich music community content, leading to an increase in monthly paying users. The company's MAU continues to grow steadily, with the DAU/MAU ratio maintained above 30%, showing steady improvement year-on-year. Other revenues from advertising and single sales are expected to total 942 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [3][11]. - On the cost side, content service costs for 2025 are projected at 3.734 billion yuan, accounting for 48.1% of revenue, while promotional and advertising expenses are estimated at 296 million yuan, reflecting a more cautious promotional strategy [3][11]. Content and AI Development - The company is expanding its music copyright content by introducing new content from K-POP labels such as RBW, StarShip, and Shofar Music, as well as works from Chinese artists like Li Jian, Zhang Yixing, Chen Chusheng, and Yi Yangqianxi. By the end of 2025, the number of registered independent musicians is expected to exceed 1 million, an increase of approximately 181,000 from the first half of 2025, with over 5.6 million music uploads, an increase of 800,000 from the first half of 2025. The company is also focusing on developing high-quality, premium music content [5][12]. - In terms of AI functionality, the company has launched several features, including "AI Singing Assistant 2.0" for one-click MV creation, "AI Shining Player" for personalized player backgrounds, and "AI Songwriting" for real-time songwriting, further enriching the music experience [5][12].

智通财经APP获悉，国海证券发布研报称，预计网易云音乐(09899)2026-2028年公司收入 84.79/91.16/96.99亿元，归母净利润20.59/22.74/24.76亿元，经调整净利润21.79/24.04/26.17亿元，对应经 调整PE为14/13/12X。网易云音乐为国内领先的在线音乐平台，付费用户数持续增长带动会员订阅业务 收入高增，长期来看公司经营杠杆逐步释放，盈利能力提升。基于此，维持"买入"评级。 （1）收入端：①2025年在线音乐业务收入59.94亿元（yoy+12.0%），其中会员订阅收入50.53亿元 （yoy+13.3%），增长主要系用户体验、会员权益升级以及音乐社区内容的持续丰富，拉动月付费用户 增加。公司MAU保持稳定增加，DAU/MAU比例保持在30%以上，同比稳步提升。广告、单曲销售等其 他收入合计9.42亿元（yoy+5.2%）。②2025年社交娱乐及其他业务收入17.65亿元，持续收缩，聚焦核 心音乐业务。 （2）成本费用端：2025年内容服务成本37.34亿元，占收入的比例为48.1%；推广及广告费用2.96亿 元，采取更加审慎的推广策略。 大力扩充音乐版权 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in online subscription revenue and is actively developing AI features to enhance user experience [2][6] - The adjusted operating profit has increased by over 30% year-on-year, indicating a continuous improvement in profitability [5] - The company is focusing on expanding its music copyright and has introduced several AI functionalities to enrich the music experience [11] Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the company reported revenue of 77.59 billion, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a more cautious approach to social entertainment services [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 27.48 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 76.0% year-on-year [8] - The adjusted net profit reached 28.60 billion, up 68.2% year-on-year, with a notable reduction in tax expenses [8] - The gross margin for 2025 was 35.7%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted operating profit margin was 22.34%, up 5.9 percentage points [8] - The company ended 2025 with cash reserves of 121.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.2% [8] Revenue and User Growth - The online music business revenue for 2025 was 59.94 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.0%, driven by an increase in paid users and enhanced user experience [8] - The number of paid users has increased, contributing to the growth in subscription revenue, which reached 50.53 billion, up 13.3% year-on-year [8] - The company’s monthly active users (MAU) have shown stable growth, maintaining a daily active users (DAU) to MAU ratio of over 30% [8] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2026 to 2028 are 84.79 billion, 91.16 billion, and 96.99 billion respectively, with expected growth rates of 9.27%, 7.52%, and 6.39% [10] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to decline to 20.59 billion in 2026, followed by a gradual recovery in subsequent years [10] - The adjusted net profit is expected to be 21.79 billion in 2026, with a corresponding adjusted P/E ratio of 14 [10]