核心音乐业务稳健增长，内容生态不断丰富 | | | 网易云音乐（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 09899） 港股公司点评 1.社区生态彰显差异化布局，付费转 化打开商业化空间 2025-08-12 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 25H1： 公司发布 25H1 业绩，实现收入 38.3 亿元，yoy -6.0%；毛利润 13.9 亿元，yoy -2.3%，毛利率为 36.4%，同比增加 1.4pct；经调整营 业利润 9.1 亿元，yoy +35.0%；经调净利润 19.5 亿元，yoy +121.0%。净利润的增加主要由于 2025H1 确认递延所得税抵免 8.5 亿元。 | 2025-08-26 | | --- | | 报告日期： | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（港元） | 286.60 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（港元） 303.4/87.9 | | | 总股本（百万股） | 217 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 217 | | 流通股比例（%） | 100.00 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 623 | | 流通 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase Cloud Music (9899.HK) with a target price of 293.51 HKD [5][3] Core Views - The introduction of well-known Korean music labels and the promotion of original music are expected to drive growth in online music MAU (Monthly Active Users) [3][8] - The company reported a 25H1 revenue of 3.83 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, which was slightly below Bloomberg's expectations [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 25H1 was 1.89 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 133%, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 57% [8] Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 2.81 billion, 2.17 billion, and 2.54 billion CNY respectively [3] - The revenue for 2025 is expected to be 7.93 billion CNY, with a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year, followed by a growth of 9.7% in 2026 [10] - The report anticipates that the online music revenue for 25H2 may reach 3.2 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15% [8] - The company is focusing on its core music business while adjusting its social entertainment segment, which saw a significant decline in revenue [8] Key Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin for 25H1 was 36%, which was 2 percentage points higher than Bloomberg's expectations [8] - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 12.91 CNY, with a net profit margin of 35.4% [10] - The price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 is estimated at 19.7 times, while the price-to-book ratio is projected at 4.3 times [10]

机构：东吴证券 研究员：张良卫/张家琦 扶持原创音乐，丰富内容生态。截至2025 年6 月，平台注册独立音乐人数超81.9 万名，上传曲目数约 480 万首，较2024 年底的77.4 万名音乐人、440 万首作品实现稳步增长。平台近期上线"AI 音乐 人"及"见习音乐人"新身份，为创作者提供新成长机遇。2025H1 平台推动安子与九妹乐队、羽果乐队等 创作者作品进入乐道汽车、萨洛蒙等品牌宣传活动，增加音乐人知名度并提供商业机会。内容方面，平 台与RBW、StarShip 娱乐等韩国厂牌合作扩充K-Pop 曲库，补充李健、张艺兴等知名华语音乐人作品， 发力说唱等特色品类，继续丰富内容生态。 盈利预测与投资评级：公司聚焦音乐主业持续优化产品体验，有望驱动用户规模增长，对标国内外音乐 流媒体平台付费墙较低商业化空间广阔。考虑确认递延所得税抵免影响，我们将网易云音乐2025-2027 年归母净利润预期从16.3/19.4/23.2 亿元上调至28.9/23.2/27.5 亿元，2025 年8 月15 日收盘价对应2025- 2027 年PE 分别为19.2/23.9/20.2 倍，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：竞争 ...

Core Insights - The company experienced a 6% year-on-year decline in total revenue for H1 2025, with social entertainment revenue dropping by 43% [1] - Despite the revenue decline, the adjusted operating profit increased by 35% year-on-year, indicating strong cost control measures [1] Financial Overview - Total revenue for H1 2025 reached 3.83 billion yuan, down 6% year-on-year, with social entertainment revenue significantly impacted [1] - The gross margin improved to 36.4%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to optimized music copyright costs [1] - Content service costs were 1.8 billion yuan, a 10% decrease year-on-year, accounting for 47% of total revenue, down 2 percentage points [1] - The total expense ratio decreased to 16.6%, down 4 percentage points year-on-year, driven by effective sales expense optimization [1] - Adjusted net profit for H1 2025 was 1.95 billion yuan, a 121% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted profit margin of 50.9% [1] Business Segments - The online music business saw a 16% increase in revenue, reaching 2.97 billion yuan, driven by a 15% growth in subscription revenue [2] - The paid user penetration rate in the online music sector reached 27%, up 3 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong market positioning [2] - Social entertainment services and other business revenues fell to 860 million yuan, a 43% decline, as the company worked on improving the live streaming ecosystem [2] Investment Outlook - The company is focusing on young users and developing original content to create differentiation in the market [3] - The strategy to attract student members is expected to contribute to long-term growth, with a stable increase in monthly active users [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting adjusted profits of 3.05 billion, 2.54 billion, and 3.05 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a significant upward revision [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's online subscription revenue shows steady growth, with effective control over costs and expenses driving a significant increase in adjusted operating profit [2][6] - The company's H1 2025 performance exceeded market expectations, with a notable impact from tax credits on adjusted net profit [6][8] - The company is focusing on enhancing its content offerings and user experience to drive growth in paid subscriptions [10][12] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.83 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 6.0%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.89 billion yuan, up 132.7% year-over-year [5][8] - Adjusted operating profit was 910 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 35.0%, and adjusted net profit was 1.95 billion yuan, up 121.0% year-over-year [8] - The decline in revenue was primarily due to a more cautious operational strategy in online social entertainment services, which saw a 43% year-over-year drop [8] Revenue and Cost Analysis - Online music business revenue for H1 2025 was 2.967 billion yuan, an increase of 15.9% year-over-year, with subscription revenue contributing 2.47 billion yuan, up 15.2% [8][12] - The company maintained a gross margin of 36.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-over-year, and an adjusted operating margin of 23.7%, up 7.2 percentage points year-over-year [8] - Content service costs decreased by 10.5% year-over-year, accounting for 47.1% of revenue, while promotional and advertising expenses dropped by 67.1% [9][12] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 8.326 billion yuan in 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to reach 2.866 billion yuan [11][12] - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 is 3.006 billion yuan, with corresponding adjusted P/E ratios of 18 for 2025, 23 for 2026, and 20 for 2027 [11][12] - The company aims to enhance its content library and user engagement, which is expected to drive long-term growth in paid subscriptions [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by growth in online music services despite a decline in overall revenue [1] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.827 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.885 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 132.8% [1] - Online music service revenue was 2.967 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.9% [1] - Membership subscription revenue accounted for over 80% of online music service revenue, totaling 2.470 billion yuan [1] - Operating profit for H1 2025 was 845 million yuan, showing significant growth due to reduced promotional and advertising expenses [1] - The gross profit margin improved to 36.4%, an increase of 1.4% year-on-year [1] Cost Management - Sales and marketing expenses decreased by 55.8% to 163 million yuan [1] - General and administrative expenses increased by 3.6% to 93 million yuan, primarily due to higher legal and professional fees [1] - R&D expenses decreased by 4.2% to 379 million yuan, attributed to improved operational efficiency [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focused on enhancing its content ecosystem and optimizing user experience in music consumption [1] - It has strengthened partnerships with copyright holders, adding content from popular K-Pop labels and expanding into diverse music genres [1] - The platform has over 819,000 independent musicians and approximately 4.8 million music tracks uploaded [1] - The company aims to develop high-quality, original music content and improve user music discovery and listening experiences [1]

Core Insights - The company reported 1H25 performance with revenue of 3.827 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 6%, aligning closely with expectations [1] - Non-IFRS net profit reached 1.946 billion yuan, significantly increasing due to the recognition of deferred tax assets from accumulated tax losses [1] - The company maintained a strong control over sales expenses, leading to a tax pre-profit of 1.068 billion yuan, exceeding expectations [1] Revenue Breakdown - Online music revenue for 1H25 was 2.967 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, driven by a growth in paid user numbers [1] - Subscription revenue grew by 15.2%, while non-subscription revenue increased by 19.7%, although some dilution occurred due to changes in membership structure [1] - Social entertainment and other revenues fell by 43.1% to 860 million yuan, attributed to a cautious operational strategy focusing on core music business [1] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for 1H25 improved to 36.4%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Sales expenses are expected to increase to 225 million yuan in 2H25, while management and R&D expenses remain stable [2] - The company anticipates a tax rate of 15% for 2H25 and 2026, impacting profit levels [2] Strategic Focus - The company is committed to enhancing its core music ecosystem and expanding long audio content offerings [2] - User engagement metrics such as DAU/MAU remained stable above 30%, with a focus on user experience and innovative features [2] - The company aims to solidify its differentiated position in the industry, supporting long-term growth in music revenue [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 60% and 10% to 2.85 billion yuan and 2.13 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The target price has been increased by 39% to 324 HKD, indicating a 20% upside potential from the current price [2] - The current price corresponds to a 24 times P/E ratio for 2026 Non-IFRS earnings [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase Cloud Music, with a target price updated to 312 HKD for 2026, based on a PE of 28X [5][25]. Core Insights - The company's subscription business is experiencing steady growth, significantly reducing promotional and advertising expenses. The financial structure is improving, and the trend towards commercialization is positive [3][11]. - The report highlights that the online music business is growing healthily, while the social entertainment segment is under pressure [21][25]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 7,867 million RMB in 2023, 7,950 million RMB in 2024, 7,902 million RMB in 2025, 8,649 million RMB in 2026, and 9,375 million RMB in 2027, with a growth rate of -12.5% in 2023 and a projected increase of 9.5% in 2026 [4][25]. - Gross profit is expected to rise from 2,103 million RMB in 2023A to 3,807 million RMB in 2027E, with gross margin improving from 26.7% to 40.6% over the same period [4][25]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to be 819 million RMB in 2023, increasing to 2,458 million RMB by 2027, with a significant jump of 107.7% in 2024 [4][25]. Business Performance Overview - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 38.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%. The gross margin was 36.4%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.4 percentage points [25]. - Online music revenue reached 29.7 billion RMB, up 15.9% year-on-year, with subscription revenue growing by 15.2% to 24.7 billion RMB [21][25]. - The social entertainment and other business revenues faced a decline of 43.1% year-on-year, totaling 8.6 billion RMB [21][25]. User Engagement and Community Growth - The report notes a steady increase in monthly active users, with improvements in user engagement metrics such as DAU/MAU ratios and listening duration [25]. - As of June 2025, the platform has over 819,000 registered independent musicians, contributing approximately 4.8 million music tracks [25]. Profitability Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 is projected at 27.58 billion RMB, 22.22 billion RMB, and 24.58 billion RMB, respectively, indicating a growth of 62.3% in 2025, followed by a decline of 19.5% in 2026, and a recovery of 10.6% in 2027 [25]. - The report emphasizes the high entry barriers in the online music service industry and the stable competitive landscape, suggesting significant potential for profitability improvement for NetEase Cloud Music [25].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the latest adjustments to the MSCI China Index, which will include 14 new stocks and exclude 17 stocks, effective August 26, 2025. The new additions reflect a strong focus on technology innovation and biopharmaceuticals, aligning with international capital's interest in China's growth sectors [1][5]. Group 1: New Additions and Exclusions - 14 new stocks (5 A-shares and 9 Hong Kong stocks) have been added, with a significant presence in technology and biopharmaceutical sectors, indicating a trend towards innovation [1][2]. - Notable new additions include CITIC Bank (total market value of $66.594 billion), Horizon Robotics (market value of $11.919 billion), and others, while stocks like Huaneng Water Power and Supor have been removed [1][3]. Group 2: Market Capitalization and Liquidity - The newly added stocks generally exhibit high market capitalization, with all having a market value above $6 billion, and four exceeding $10 billion, indicating robust growth potential [3][4]. - High-growth stocks such as Giant Network (137% year-to-date increase) and Jingwang Electronics (nearly 120% increase) demonstrate strong market performance and trading activity [3][4]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Preferences and Policy Alignment - Over 70% of the new constituents are from technology and pharmaceutical sectors, aligning with foreign institutional investors' recent recommendations to overweight sectors like AI and biotechnology [3][4]. - The adjustments reflect MSCI's quantitative screening standards, ensuring that included companies meet the long-term investment needs of international capital [4]. Group 4: Increase in Hong Kong Stock Representation - The inclusion of 9 Hong Kong stocks (64% of new additions) highlights a recovery in the Hong Kong market, particularly in technology and innovative pharmaceutical sectors since 2025 [4]. Group 5: Long-term Strategic Implications - The inclusion in the MSCI global index is expected to attract approximately $12.5 trillion in international capital for passive allocation, enhancing liquidity and global visibility for these companies [5]. - The common characteristics of the newly added stocks can be summarized as "driven by technological innovation, biopharmaceutical research, high market capitalization, high growth potential, high liquidity, and foreign investor favor," aligning with China's industrial upgrade trends and global capital allocation demands [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company focuses on "music community + technology empowerment" to build a differentiated advantage in the online music platform, actively expanding quality music content resources in the post-copyright era, targeting the younger demographic, and optimizing membership rights, leading to continuous growth in membership scale, with a strong recommendation rating given for initial coverage [1][4]. Group 1: Business Performance - The online music service revenue is expected to grow by 23.1% year-on-year to 5.355 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 67.35% of total revenue, driven by membership service optimization and rich content [2]. - Membership subscription revenue increased by 22.2% year-on-year to 4.459 billion yuan, with the number of paid users reaching 44.12 million by the end of 2023, and the average revenue per paid user per month at 6.9 yuan [2]. - The company has been expanding channels and improving the membership system, including a strategic partnership with Alibaba's 88VIP to integrate music with e-commerce [2]. Group 2: Competitive Advantage - The company employs a "copyright procurement + original incubation" dual system to expand quality music content, boasting a library of 150 million licensed songs and 770,000 independent musicians, with 350 billion plays of original music [3]. - The platform emphasizes the music community concept, creating a social ecosystem that enhances emotional engagement, with over one million UGC comments generated daily and a stable daily-to-monthly active user ratio above 30% [3]. - Compared to industry leaders, the company shows excellent growth in payment rates, but the ARPPU value remains significantly lower than the industry average, indicating substantial potential for user value enhancement [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - With the drive of innovative technologies like AI and continuous optimization of membership rights, the company is expected to achieve further increases in payment rates and ARPU values [4]. - Projected revenues for 2025 to 2027 are expected to reach 8.237 billion, 8.832 billion, and 9.663 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 1.923 billion, 2.222 billion, and 2.459 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 30, 26, and 24 times [4].