智通财经APP获悉，国海证券发布研报称，预计网易云音乐(09899)2026-2028年公司收入 84.79/91.16/96.99亿元，归母净利润20.59/22.74/24.76亿元，经调整净利润21.79/24.04/26.17亿元，对应经 调整PE为14/13/12X。网易云音乐为国内领先的在线音乐平台，付费用户数持续增长带动会员订阅业务 收入高增，长期来看公司经营杠杆逐步释放，盈利能力提升。基于此，维持"买入"评级。 （1）收入端：①2025年在线音乐业务收入59.94亿元（yoy+12.0%），其中会员订阅收入50.53亿元 （yoy+13.3%），增长主要系用户体验、会员权益升级以及音乐社区内容的持续丰富，拉动月付费用户 增加。公司MAU保持稳定增加，DAU/MAU比例保持在30%以上，同比稳步提升。广告、单曲销售等其 他收入合计9.42亿元（yoy+5.2%）。②2025年社交娱乐及其他业务收入17.65亿元，持续收缩，聚焦核 心音乐业务。 （2）成本费用端：2025年内容服务成本37.34亿元，占收入的比例为48.1%；推广及广告费用2.96亿 元，采取更加审慎的推广策略。 大力扩充音乐版权 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in online subscription revenue and is actively developing AI features to enhance user experience [2][6] - The adjusted operating profit has increased by over 30% year-on-year, indicating a continuous improvement in profitability [5] - The company is focusing on expanding its music copyright and has introduced several AI functionalities to enrich the music experience [11] Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the company reported revenue of 77.59 billion, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a more cautious approach to social entertainment services [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 27.48 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 76.0% year-on-year [8] - The adjusted net profit reached 28.60 billion, up 68.2% year-on-year, with a notable reduction in tax expenses [8] - The gross margin for 2025 was 35.7%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted operating profit margin was 22.34%, up 5.9 percentage points [8] - The company ended 2025 with cash reserves of 121.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.2% [8] Revenue and User Growth - The online music business revenue for 2025 was 59.94 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.0%, driven by an increase in paid users and enhanced user experience [8] - The number of paid users has increased, contributing to the growth in subscription revenue, which reached 50.53 billion, up 13.3% year-on-year [8] - The company’s monthly active users (MAU) have shown stable growth, maintaining a daily active users (DAU) to MAU ratio of over 30% [8] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2026 to 2028 are 84.79 billion, 91.16 billion, and 96.99 billion respectively, with expected growth rates of 9.27%, 7.52%, and 6.39% [10] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to decline to 20.59 billion in 2026, followed by a gradual recovery in subsequent years [10] - The adjusted net profit is expected to be 21.79 billion in 2026, with a corresponding adjusted P/E ratio of 14 [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in its core business, driven by content expansion and AI applications [1][4] - In 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.76 billion yuan (down 2.4% year-on-year) and a net profit of 2.75 billion yuan (up 76.0% year-on-year), primarily due to improved profitability and a tax credit of approximately 680 million yuan [4][5] - The company anticipates a gradual increase in ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) driven by high-quality content, despite a short-term impact from changes in membership structure [4][5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2025 was 77.6 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 35.7% (up 2 percentage points year-on-year) [4][6] - The company achieved a net profit margin of 35.4% in 2025, with an expected net profit of 2.10 billion yuan for 2026 [6] - The projected P/E ratios for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 15.0, 13.4, and 11.9 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [6]

核心观点： | | | | [Table_ 货币单位：人民币 Finance] | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 7,950 | 7,759 | 8,539 | 9,323 | 10,094 | | 增长率（ % ） | 1% | -2% | 10% | 9% | 8% | | EBITDA（百万元） | 1,585 | 2,078 | 2,435 | 2,843 | 3,348 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,700 | 2,860 | 2,206 | 2,561 | 2,998 | | 增长率（ ） % | 108% | 68% | -23% | 16% | 17% | | EPS（元/股） | 8 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 14 | | 市盈率（x） | 19 | 11 | 15 | 13 | 11 | | ROE（%） | 15% | 21% | 14% | 14% | 14% | | EV/EBITDA（x） | 20 | 15 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2025 performance, showing a mixed financial outcome with a slight decline in revenue but significant growth in adjusted net profit, primarily due to deferred tax asset recognition [4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 7.759 billion RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 2.4%, compared to Bloomberg's consensus forecast of 7.913 billion RMB [4] - Gross profit reached 2.770 billion RMB, up 3.3% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 35.7%, slightly below the expected 36.4% [4] - Operating profit increased by 38.5% year-over-year to 1.622 billion RMB, mainly due to reduced sales expenses [4] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.860 billion RMB, a substantial increase of 68.2% year-over-year, largely due to the recognition of deferred tax credits amounting to 747 million RMB [4] Revenue Breakdown - Online music service revenue was 5.994 billion RMB, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 12.0%, with subscription revenue increasing by 13.3% to 5.053 billion RMB, driven by membership growth [5] - Social entertainment services and other revenues fell by 32.0% to 1.765 billion RMB, primarily due to the closure of the live streaming entry after the version update at the end of 2024 [5] - The platform's user base and activity levels grew year-over-year, maintaining a DAU/MAU ratio above 30%, with increased average daily listening time on mobile [5] Content Strategy and Innovation - The company is enhancing its differentiated content ecosystem by deepening partnerships with domestic and international copyright holders, introducing K-POP labels and expanding its Chinese popular music library [6] - The independent musician ecosystem has grown, with over 1 million registered independent musicians and more than 5.6 million tracks uploaded by the end of 2025, enhancing unique content supply [6] - AI-driven product innovations, including a self-developed AI recommendation model and new interactive tools, have improved user experience and engagement [6] Cost Management - Sales expenses decreased by 33.2% year-over-year to 409 million RMB, attributed to more prudent promotional and advertising spending [7] - Management expenses fell by 4.4%, benefiting from controlled administrative costs [7] - R&D expenses declined by 2.3%, due to improved resource utilization and a more focused investment structure on core products and AI capabilities [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase Cloud Music [7] Core Insights - The company is enhancing collaboration with copyright holders to enrich audio content, resulting in a year-on-year increase in user scale and activity [3] - The report forecasts revenue growth for NetEase Cloud Music, with expected revenues of 84.3 billion, 92.1 billion, and 101.5 billion RMB for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of +8.6%, +9.3%, and +10.1% [26] - Adjusted net profit is projected to be 22.6 billion, 26.1 billion, and 30.0 billion RMB for the same years, with a year-on-year change of -21.2%, +15.8%, and +14.4% [26] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 7,950 million RMB, with a slight increase of 1.1% year-on-year, and expected to reach 10,145 million RMB by 2028, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.1% [5] - Gross profit is expected to rise from 2,682 million RMB in 2024 to 4,259 million RMB in 2028, with gross margin improving from 33.7% to 42.0% [5] - Adjusted net profit is anticipated to increase from 1,700 million RMB in 2024 to 2,987 million RMB in 2028, with a significant jump of 107.7% in 2025 [5] Business Performance - In the second half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 39.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, with a gross margin of 35.0%, up by 2.7 percentage points [26] - Online music revenue reached 30.3 billion RMB in the second half of 2025, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, with subscription revenue increasing by 11.6% to 25.8 billion RMB [26] - The company is focusing on high-quality development of its core music ecosystem, with user engagement metrics showing improvement [26] Market Data - The stock price range over the past 52 weeks is between 130.70 and 302.40 HKD, with a current market capitalization of 36,038 million HKD [8]

Core Viewpoint - NetEase Cloud Music reported a revenue of 7.76 billion yuan for 2025, with an operating profit of 1.62 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38.5% in operating profit, driven by a focus on core online music services and AI technology innovations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2025, NetEase Cloud Music achieved an online music service revenue of 5.99 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.0% [1] - Membership subscription revenue reached 5.05 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.3% [1] - Daily active users maintained a ratio of over 30% of monthly active users, showing steady improvement compared to 2024 [1] Group 2: AI Integration and User Engagement - The company has integrated AI technology into music recommendation, search, and sound quality enhancement, enhancing user experience [2] - New features such as "AI songwriting" and various incentive mechanisms have been launched to foster a healthy AI music ecosystem [1] Group 3: Content and Copyright Expansion - NetEase Cloud Music has deepened strategic partnerships with global music labels, expanding its copyright library with notable artists from both Chinese and K-POP music [2] - The platform has successfully launched exclusive content, including Mariah Carey's new album, which achieved significant streaming numbers in China [2] Group 4: Audio Content Growth - Long audio content consumption has steadily increased, with the introduction of self-produced audiobooks and popular podcasts featuring well-known hosts [3] - The platform has expanded its multi-terminal service ecosystem, enhancing music experiences in various life scenarios, including partnerships with automotive brands [3]

Core Insights - NetEase Cloud Music (09899) reported a revenue of approximately 7.759 billion yuan for 2025, with a gross profit of about 2.77 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.3% [1] - The annual profit reached approximately 2.746 billion yuan, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 75.4%, while the adjusted net profit was around 2.86 billion yuan, up by 68.2% [1] Group 1: User Engagement and Community Development - The company continues to expand and deepen its music-oriented community ecosystem, leading to growth in user scale and activity [1] - Daily active users (DAU) as a percentage of monthly active users (MAU) maintained above 30%, showing steady improvement compared to 2024 [1] - The average daily listening time for mobile users has also increased, indicating enhanced user engagement [1] Group 2: Content Strategy and Partnerships - The company has enriched its copyright music reserves and actively promoted original Chinese music, creating a diverse and unique content library [1] - In 2025, the company introduced content from Korean labels to supplement its Chinese music library, adding film soundtracks and variety show music [1] - The company deepened collaborations with labels for content promotion and music-centric activities, while its independent musician ecosystem continued to thrive [1] Group 3: Product Innovation and User Experience - The company prioritized user needs and focused on innovating music discovery and listening experiences [2] - In 2025, the core product framework was upgraded to enhance visual appeal and better meet diverse music discovery preferences [2] - The launch of the self-developed AI generative recommendation model "Climber" and features like Automix and "Shen Guang Player" provided an immersive audio-visual experience [2] Group 4: Revenue and Profitability - The monetization capability centered around music continued to achieve steady growth, with membership subscription revenue increasing by 13.3% due to a rise in membership scale [2] - The growing membership scale demonstrated stronger user stickiness, with improved retention and activity rates [2] - The company's gross margin reached 35.7% in 2025, significantly up from 33.7% in 2024, with operating profit increasing by 38.5% due to business scale growth and improved online music commercialization capabilities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The competition in the online music industry is intensifying, with Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music focusing on monetizing fan engagement through emotional consumption and premium memberships, while new challenger Soda Music, backed by Douyin, is rapidly gaining market share [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Tencent Music reported significant revenue and profit growth, with a 17.1% increase in subscription revenue to 4.38 billion yuan, and a 46.9% increase in non-subscription revenue [15]. - NetEase Cloud Music experienced a 6% decline in revenue but a remarkable 132.4% increase in profit during the same period [16]. - Tencent Music's paid user count reached 124 million, up 6.3% year-on-year, with an ARPPU of 11.7 yuan, reflecting a 9.3% increase [8]. Group 2: User Engagement Strategies - Both Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music are focusing on monetizing their platforms by targeting more generous users through emotional value and premium membership offerings [5][6]. - Tencent Music has introduced interactive community features, such as Bubble, allowing fans to interact with their idols for a fee, enhancing user engagement [12]. - The platforms are also expanding their K-pop content libraries to attract dedicated fan bases, with Tencent Music investing 1.29 billion yuan in acquiring a stake in SM Entertainment [10]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Soda Music, leveraging Douyin's vast user base, has rapidly approached 100 million monthly active users, while Tencent Music has seen a decline in its monthly active users for 15 consecutive quarters [3][19]. - The competition is shifting towards offline events, with Tencent Music leading in organizing live performances and events, which are crucial for revenue generation [33][30]. - The dynamics of the music industry are changing, with a focus on short-form content and social media platforms like Douyin becoming essential for music promotion [23][27]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The online music market is expected to evolve, with the importance of live performances and international expansion becoming more pronounced for platforms like Tencent Music and Soda Music [32][36]. - The competition may not result in a three-way stalemate, as the strategies of Tencent Music and Soda Music align closely, potentially sidelining NetEase Cloud Music [39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase Cloud Music, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance in the coming months [7]. Core Insights - The core music business shows steady growth, with a rich content ecosystem continuously expanding [3]. - In H1 2025, the company reported revenues of 3.83 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 6.0%, while adjusted net profit surged by 121.0% to 1.95 billion yuan, primarily due to deferred tax credits [4][5]. - The online music segment generated 2.967 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 15.9%, driven by a rise in paid subscribers [4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross profit of 1.39 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a gross margin of 36.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-over-year [3]. - Sales, management, and R&D expenses were reported at 163 million, 93 million, and 379 million yuan respectively, with significant reductions in sales expenses by 55.8% [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 7.94 billion, 8.60 billion, and 9.46 billion yuan, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of -0.1%, 8.3%, and 10.0% [7]. Content Ecosystem - As of June 2025, the number of registered independent musicians exceeded 819,000, contributing to a vast library of approximately 4.8 million tracks [5]. - The company has signed contracts with various labels to enhance its copyright library, including partnerships with Korean labels and collaborations with prominent artists [5]. Product Innovation - Continuous product innovation has improved user experience, with features like the "Godlight Player" and enhanced music recommendation systems [6]. - The platform maintains a daily active user to monthly active user ratio of over 30%, indicating strong user engagement [6].