Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on the synthetic rubber market, covering aspects such as market trends, supply and demand, and trading strategies [6] - The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market remained stagnant this week, with the spot price ranging from 10,000 to 10,800 yuan/ton [6] - The production and trade inventories of butadiene rubber are expected to increase slightly, while the overall demand improvement is limited [6] - The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,750 yuan in the short term [6] Group 2: Futures Market - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract declined this week, with a weekly decrease of 0.57% [10] - As of November 21, the 1 - 2 spread of butadiene rubber was 30 [17] - As of November 21, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,980 tons, unchanged from last week [20] Group 3: Spot Market - As of November 20, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 10,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from last week [26] - As of November 20, the basis of butadiene rubber was 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from last week [26] Group 4: Upstream Market - As of November 20, the CFR middle - price of naphtha in Japan was 573.13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF middle - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 730 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from last week [29] - As of November 21, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 72.53%, a decrease of 0.53% from last week [33] - As of November 21, the butadiene port inventory was 39,800 tons, an increase of 10,800 tons from last week [33] Group 5: Industry Situation - In October 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 137,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from the previous month [36] - As of November 20, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 72.64%, an increase of 2.72% from last week [36] - As of November 20, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was 284 yuan/ton, a decrease of 352 yuan/ton from last week [39] - As of November 21, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 31,510 tons, an increase of 690 tons from last week [42] - As of November 21, the domestic butadiene rubber manufacturer inventory was 26,630 tons, an increase of 780 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 4,880 tons, a decrease of 90 tons from last week [42] Group 6: Downstream Market - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points month - on - month and 10.40 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 1.56 percentage points year - on - year [45] - In October 2025, China's tire export volume was 653,100 tons, a decrease of 50,500 tons month - on - month and a decrease of 6.79% year - on - year; from January to October, China's cumulative tire export volume was 7,043,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68% [48]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is experiencing a "weak reality, weak expectation" trend due to multiple factors, with prices under pressure from weak cost factors and increasing supply pressure, while demand struggles to absorb the excess supply [1][5]. Supply Side - By 2025, domestic butadiene production capacity is expected to increase by 980,000 tons, reaching a total capacity of 7.677 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, which exacerbates the oversupply pressure in the industry [3]. - Despite some companies reducing output or undergoing maintenance due to long-term losses, the overall market supply has not effectively contracted due to new production facilities coming online [3]. - As of mid-October, social inventory of polybutadiene rubber has risen to 32,800 tons, continuing to grow month-on-month, while factory inventories remain at historically high levels [3]. Demand Side - The recovery in the tire industry, the main downstream application for synthetic rubber, has not met expectations, with production capacity utilization rates showing a year-on-year decline despite a month-on-month increase [4]. - As of October 24, the capacity utilization rate for domestic semi-steel tire manufacturers was 72.84%, up 1.77 percentage points month-on-month but down 6.84 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The inventory turnover days for domestic tire companies are increasing, indicating poor terminal sales and significant destocking pressure, with procurement strategies focusing on just-in-time purchasing [4]. External Environment - Increasing uncertainty in the external environment is further suppressing the release of export orders, contributing to the overall challenges faced by the domestic synthetic rubber market [5].

Report Overview - Report Date: September 30, 2025 [1] - Report Cycle: Daily Report - Research Variety: Synthetic Rubber 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The synthetic rubber market is expected to enter an oversupply cycle as supply growth far exceeds demand growth. The short - term synthetic rubber futures may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to factors such as butadiene unit maintenance progress, crude oil price fluctuations, EU anti - dumping investigation results, and tire export data [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 30, 2025, synthetic rubber futures fluctuated and declined. For the BR2511 contract, the opening price was 11,325 yuan/ton, the highest was 11,335 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,100 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,100 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton or 1.64% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 110,000 lots, a decrease of 47,800 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 33,200 lots, a decrease of 5,336 lots from the previous day [2] - **Variety Price**: The report provides the opening, highest, lowest, latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests of some synthetic rubber contracts on September 30, 2025 [4] 3.2 Spot Market - In the Shanghai market, the quotes of high - cis butadiene rubber from different petrochemical companies such as Hushan Petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, etc. were provided on September 30, with no price changes [5] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information**: The price of butadiene may continue to be weak, and the upward space of crude oil prices is limited under the medium - and long - term supply - demand loosening expectation. The cost support for synthetic rubber will be further weakened [5] - **Policy and Market Dynamics**: On September 30, most quotes in Thailand's three major central rubber markets were flat or down [6] 3.4 Market Outlook - Projects of Jilin Petrochemical (200,000 tons) and Fushun Petrochemical (160,000 tons) will be put into production in the fourth quarter. The total production capacity is expected to reach 7.627 million tons by the end of the year, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. The market will enter an oversupply cycle, and the medium - and long - term supply pressure is difficult to be substantially alleviated [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research variety: Synthetic rubber [1] - Report cycle: Daily report - Date of report: September 18, 2025 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core View - The short - term synthetic rubber futures market is expected to continue its weak performance, with supply, inventory, and cost factors influencing the market. Future price movements depend on pre - National Day stocking, device maintenance, butadiene prices, and tire production data [7][8] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On September 18, 2025, synthetic rubber fluctuated and declined. The BR2511 contract opened at 11,570 yuan/ton, reached a high of 11,590 yuan/ton, a low of 11,355 yuan/ton, and closed at 11,415 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan/ton or 1.76% from the previous trading day's settlement price. Trading volume was 116,100 lots, an increase of 43,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 74,500 lots, an increase of 7,604 lots [2] - **Variety price**: The BR2510 contract opened at 11,610 yuan/ton with a high of 11,660 yuan/ton; the BR2512 contract opened at 11,570 yuan/ton with a high of 11,590 yuan/ton; the BR2601 contract opened at 11,605 yuan/ton, closed at 11,440 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton or 1.59%, with a trading volume of 19,247 lots and an open interest of 22,233 lots [4] - **Spot price**: On September 18, the price of high - cis butadiene rubber in the Shanghai market decreased by 0 - 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. Some arbitrage resources had lower prices, and the mainstream supply price was affected [5] 4.2 Influencing Factors - **Industry information**: As of September 17, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 33,700 tons, a 2.29% decrease from the previous period. However, trader inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks, and there is still pressure on total social inventory. Butadiene port inventory has dropped to 25,600 tons, but 50,000 tons of shipments are expected to arrive in October, weakening cost - side support [6] - **Policy and market dynamics**: According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 18, China's rubber tire exports in August were 870,000 tons, a 2.6% year - on - year increase. The cumulative export volume from January to August was 6.5 million tons, a 5.1% year - on - year increase [6] 4.3 Market Outlook - The Fed's interest rate cut has led to a rebound in the US dollar index, putting pressure on commodities. Although there are disruptions in the natural rubber tapping process due to rainfall and high raw material prices, the spot trading sentiment has weakened. Supply and inventory pressures dominate the market. The short - term synthetic rubber futures market is expected to continue its weak performance, and future price movements need to pay attention to pre - National Day stocking, device maintenance, butadiene prices, and tire production data [7][8]

Report Summary 1. Strategy Suggestion - The short - term price of the br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,660 and 12,200 [7]. 2. Market Review and Outlook - **Review**: This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market showed a volatile and upward trend, with the spot price fluctuating between 11,550 and 12,050 yuan/ton. Sinopec and PetroChina raised the price of high - cis butadiene rubber by 200 yuan/ton. As of August 28, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was between 12,100 and 12,200 yuan/ton [8]. - **Outlook**: Most previously shut - down butadiene rubber plants have restarted, increasing domestic production. With the rise in butadiene and mainstream cis - butadiene rubber supply prices, the shipping pressure on producers has increased, and inventories have generally risen. Next week, the Xinjiang Land cis - butadiene rubber plant is expected to restart, further increasing supply slightly. In terms of demand, most semi - steel tire enterprises' operations were stable, but some had maintenance due to shipping pressure, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Full - steel tire enterprises generally maintained production control, and some had reduced production at the end of the week due to maintenance. Some enterprises have 3 - 6 days of maintenance planned at the end of the month and early next month, which may still drag down short - term capacity utilization [8]. 3. Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of 2.06% [12]. - **Position Analysis**: Information about the change in the top 20 positions of cis - butadiene rubber is provided, but specific data is not detailed in the summary [13]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of August 29, the spread between the 10 - 11 contracts of butadiene rubber was 20 [18]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 29, the warehouse receipts of cis - butadiene rubber were 2,490 tons, unchanged from last week [21]. 4. Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of August 28, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was - 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 5. Upstream Market - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of August 28, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 593.88 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5.88 US dollars/ton from last week. The CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 842 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12 US dollars/ton from last week [29]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of August 29, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 67.91%, a decrease of 0.26% from last week. The port inventory of butadiene was 24,000 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons from last week [32]. 6. Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In July 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons from the previous month. As of August 28, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 75.85%, an increase of 6.7% from last week [36]. - **Production Profit**: As of August 28, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 478 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from last week [39]. - **Inventory**: As of August 29, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 31,720 tons, an increase of 1,110 tons from last week. The manufacturer inventory was 25,100 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 6,620 tons, a decrease of 790 tons from last week [43]. 7. Downstream Market - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of August 28, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.73 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.10 percentage points [46]. - **Tire Exports**: In July 2025, China's tire exports were 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, the cumulative tire exports were 4,933,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 325,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.78% and a year - on - year increase of 7.20%. From January to July, the cumulative exports of passenger car tires were 1,940,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.51%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 454,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.60% and a year - on - year increase of 12.99%. From January to July, the cumulative exports of truck and bus tires were 2,789,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.52% [49].

Group 1 - The domestic high cis-butadiene rubber market is experiencing weak price trends influenced by multiple factors [1] - Current market prices for BR9000 in North and East China are around 11,525 - 11,650 CNY/ton, while in South China, prices are at 11,600 - 11,650 CNY/ton [1] - The supply of cis-butadiene rubber is being replenished, leading to a slight decline in trading activity despite strong demand inquiries [1] Group 2 - The futures market for synthetic rubber is stabilizing, with spot sellers offering discounts while some grades are in short supply [1] - The price of raw material butadiene is stabilizing, providing a bottom support for the cis-butadiene rubber market [1] - The futures night market has seen price increases, boosting the trading atmosphere, although the overall supply remains ample and downstream tire production capacity is insufficient [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic high styrene-butadiene rubber market is experiencing weak price movements, with expectations of a slight increase in prices, although the extent of this increase is limited due to various market factors [1] Price Trends - The market prices for BR9000 in North and East China are around 11,525 - 11,650 CNY/ton, while in South China, prices are between 11,600 - 11,650 CNY/ton [1] - The synthetic rubber futures prices are stabilizing, with spot sellers offering discounts and some grades being withheld from sale [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is a sufficient supply of spot styrene-butadiene rubber, but downstream tire production capacity is not fully utilized, leading to cautious raw material purchasing and price negotiations [1] - The market is expected to see a slight price increase today, but the extent of this increase will be limited due to the pressure from the fundamental market conditions [1] Cost Factors - The price of raw material butadiene is stabilizing, and the gap between rubber prices and cost prices is narrowing, indicating that there is still some bottom support for prices [1] - The futures market's night session has seen a rise, which is expected to boost spot trading, although sellers are facing high costs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market for high cis-butadiene rubber has shown limited price fluctuations recently, with expectations for a narrow range of price adjustments in the short term [1] Price Trends - The current spot prices for BR9000 in North and East China are around 11,300 - 11,400 yuan/ton, while in South China, the price is consistently at 11,400 yuan/ton [1] - The synthetic rubber futures market has experienced a range of fluctuations, with improved trading in the raw material butadiene, leading to an upward price exploration by suppliers [1] Market Dynamics - The supply of butadiene rubber is ample, with buyers primarily inquiring based on immediate needs and engaging in low-price transactions, resulting in minimal changes in trading focus [1] - The expectation for today’s high cis-butadiene rubber market is a narrow range of price consolidation, supported by the strong pricing of butadiene [1] Future Outlook - Despite the supportive pricing from the butadiene market, the overall market is expected to face challenges due to abundant supply and insufficient release of downstream tire production capacity, leading to cautious purchasing and price negotiations [1]

Group 1 - Synthetic rubber futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 11,710.0 yuan and closing at 11,805.0 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2.64% [1][2] - Institutions predict that the BR2509 contract will fluctuate in the range of 11,800 to 12,300 yuan in the short term, influenced by easing cost and supply pressures [2] - The trading atmosphere for synthetic rubber has weakened, leading to a short-term price decline, with macroeconomic sentiment also contributing to the overall market pullback [2] Group 2 - Recent supply increases from domestic producers, including Yanshan Petrochemical and Jinzhou Petrochemical, have led to rising inventory levels and increased selling pressure [2] - Demand from downstream tire manufacturers has shown slight improvement, but overall performance remains below expectations, with some companies planning short-term maintenance [2] - The support level for the BR main contract is identified at 11,700 to 11,800 yuan, while resistance is seen at 12,400 to 12,500 yuan [2]

Group 1 - The synthetic rubber futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 11,750.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 12,060.0 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.35% [1] - The cost support for synthetic rubber is strengthening, driven by rising macroeconomic sentiment and sector optimism, leading to an upward movement in prices [1] - The main contract support level is identified at 11,300-11,400 CNY, with resistance at 11,900-12,000 CNY [1] Group 2 - Recent price resistance for raw material butadiene is evident, leading to weakened cost support for styrene-butadiene rubber, while domestic supply is expected to increase due to the restart of several production facilities [2] - The overall production capacity utilization rate for tire manufacturers is recovering, with production levels stabilizing and a slight increase in orders expected in mid to late July [2] - The BR2509 contract is anticipated to fluctuate within the range of 11,500-12,000 CNY in the short term [2]