成橡胶期货日报 成文日期: 20250930 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:合成橡厂 研究员：何宁 （从业资格号:F0238922;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0001219) 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20250930）合成橡胶期货震荡下跌。其中合成橡胶 2511 (BR2511) 开盘价 11325 元/吨, 最高价 11335 元/吨, 最低价 11100 元/吨,收盘价 11100 元/吨,较上一个交易日结算价下跌 185 元/吨, 跌幅 1.64%，成交量 11 万手，较上日减少 4.78 万手，持仓量 3.32 万手,较上目减少 5336 手。 图 1：合成橡胶 2511（BR2511）分时图 1.2 品种价格 表 1：合成橡胶期货日行情表 20250930 | 合约名称 | 开盘 最高 【 最低 最新 涨跌 涨幅% 成交量 持仓量 | | --- | --- | | BR橡胶2510 == | 11375 11375 | | BR橡胶2511ª 11325 11335 11100 11100 -185 -1.64% 110443 33214 | | | BR橡胶2512 | | | BR橡胶 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research variety: Synthetic rubber [1] - Report cycle: Daily report - Date of report: September 18, 2025 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core View - The short - term synthetic rubber futures market is expected to continue its weak performance, with supply, inventory, and cost factors influencing the market. Future price movements depend on pre - National Day stocking, device maintenance, butadiene prices, and tire production data [7][8] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On September 18, 2025, synthetic rubber fluctuated and declined. The BR2511 contract opened at 11,570 yuan/ton, reached a high of 11,590 yuan/ton, a low of 11,355 yuan/ton, and closed at 11,415 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan/ton or 1.76% from the previous trading day's settlement price. Trading volume was 116,100 lots, an increase of 43,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 74,500 lots, an increase of 7,604 lots [2] - **Variety price**: The BR2510 contract opened at 11,610 yuan/ton with a high of 11,660 yuan/ton; the BR2512 contract opened at 11,570 yuan/ton with a high of 11,590 yuan/ton; the BR2601 contract opened at 11,605 yuan/ton, closed at 11,440 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton or 1.59%, with a trading volume of 19,247 lots and an open interest of 22,233 lots [4] - **Spot price**: On September 18, the price of high - cis butadiene rubber in the Shanghai market decreased by 0 - 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. Some arbitrage resources had lower prices, and the mainstream supply price was affected [5] 4.2 Influencing Factors - **Industry information**: As of September 17, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 33,700 tons, a 2.29% decrease from the previous period. However, trader inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks, and there is still pressure on total social inventory. Butadiene port inventory has dropped to 25,600 tons, but 50,000 tons of shipments are expected to arrive in October, weakening cost - side support [6] - **Policy and market dynamics**: According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 18, China's rubber tire exports in August were 870,000 tons, a 2.6% year - on - year increase. The cumulative export volume from January to August was 6.5 million tons, a 5.1% year - on - year increase [6] 4.3 Market Outlook - The Fed's interest rate cut has led to a rebound in the US dollar index, putting pressure on commodities. Although there are disruptions in the natural rubber tapping process due to rainfall and high raw material prices, the spot trading sentiment has weakened. Supply and inventory pressures dominate the market. The short - term synthetic rubber futures market is expected to continue its weak performance, and future price movements need to pay attention to pre - National Day stocking, device maintenance, butadiene prices, and tire production data [7][8]

Report Summary 1. Strategy Suggestion - The short - term price of the br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,660 and 12,200 [7]. 2. Market Review and Outlook - **Review**: This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market showed a volatile and upward trend, with the spot price fluctuating between 11,550 and 12,050 yuan/ton. Sinopec and PetroChina raised the price of high - cis butadiene rubber by 200 yuan/ton. As of August 28, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was between 12,100 and 12,200 yuan/ton [8]. - **Outlook**: Most previously shut - down butadiene rubber plants have restarted, increasing domestic production. With the rise in butadiene and mainstream cis - butadiene rubber supply prices, the shipping pressure on producers has increased, and inventories have generally risen. Next week, the Xinjiang Land cis - butadiene rubber plant is expected to restart, further increasing supply slightly. In terms of demand, most semi - steel tire enterprises' operations were stable, but some had maintenance due to shipping pressure, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Full - steel tire enterprises generally maintained production control, and some had reduced production at the end of the week due to maintenance. Some enterprises have 3 - 6 days of maintenance planned at the end of the month and early next month, which may still drag down short - term capacity utilization [8]. 3. Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of 2.06% [12]. - **Position Analysis**: Information about the change in the top 20 positions of cis - butadiene rubber is provided, but specific data is not detailed in the summary [13]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of August 29, the spread between the 10 - 11 contracts of butadiene rubber was 20 [18]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 29, the warehouse receipts of cis - butadiene rubber were 2,490 tons, unchanged from last week [21]. 4. Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of August 28, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was - 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 5. Upstream Market - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of August 28, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 593.88 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5.88 US dollars/ton from last week. The CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 842 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12 US dollars/ton from last week [29]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of August 29, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 67.91%, a decrease of 0.26% from last week. The port inventory of butadiene was 24,000 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons from last week [32]. 6. Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In July 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons from the previous month. As of August 28, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 75.85%, an increase of 6.7% from last week [36]. - **Production Profit**: As of August 28, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 478 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from last week [39]. - **Inventory**: As of August 29, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 31,720 tons, an increase of 1,110 tons from last week. The manufacturer inventory was 25,100 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 6,620 tons, a decrease of 790 tons from last week [43]. 7. Downstream Market - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of August 28, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.73 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.10 percentage points [46]. - **Tire Exports**: In July 2025, China's tire exports were 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, the cumulative tire exports were 4,933,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 325,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.78% and a year - on - year increase of 7.20%. From January to July, the cumulative exports of passenger car tires were 1,940,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.51%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 454,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.60% and a year - on - year increase of 12.99%. From January to July, the cumulative exports of truck and bus tires were 2,789,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.52% [49].

Group 1 - The domestic high cis-butadiene rubber market is experiencing weak price trends influenced by multiple factors [1] - Current market prices for BR9000 in North and East China are around 11,525 - 11,650 CNY/ton, while in South China, prices are at 11,600 - 11,650 CNY/ton [1] - The supply of cis-butadiene rubber is being replenished, leading to a slight decline in trading activity despite strong demand inquiries [1] Group 2 - The futures market for synthetic rubber is stabilizing, with spot sellers offering discounts while some grades are in short supply [1] - The price of raw material butadiene is stabilizing, providing a bottom support for the cis-butadiene rubber market [1] - The futures night market has seen price increases, boosting the trading atmosphere, although the overall supply remains ample and downstream tire production capacity is insufficient [1]

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【8月25日高顺顺丁橡胶市场价格或探涨但幅度受限】上周五，国内高顺顺丁橡胶市场现货价格偏弱运 行。华北、华东地区BR9000市场价格在11525 - 11650元/吨附近，华南地区为11600 - 11650元/吨。合成 橡胶期货价格区间整理，顺丁市场现货持货商报盘多让价，部分牌号惜售。 顺丁橡胶现货供应补充， 买盘刚需询盘，交投重心窄幅回落。预计近日高顺顺丁橡胶市场价格偏强。今日原料丁二烯价格区间整 理，胶价与成本价差偏窄，价格底部支撑仍存。期货夜盘拉涨提振现货交投，持货商成本偏高，报盘重 心偏强。 不过，市场货源供应充裕，下游轮胎产能释放不足，原料采买观望，压价商谈为主，基本面 承压。预计今日现货市场价格探涨，但幅度受限。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market for high cis-butadiene rubber has shown limited price fluctuations recently, with expectations for a narrow range of price adjustments in the short term [1] Price Trends - The current spot prices for BR9000 in North and East China are around 11,300 - 11,400 yuan/ton, while in South China, the price is consistently at 11,400 yuan/ton [1] - The synthetic rubber futures market has experienced a range of fluctuations, with improved trading in the raw material butadiene, leading to an upward price exploration by suppliers [1] Market Dynamics - The supply of butadiene rubber is ample, with buyers primarily inquiring based on immediate needs and engaging in low-price transactions, resulting in minimal changes in trading focus [1] - The expectation for today’s high cis-butadiene rubber market is a narrow range of price consolidation, supported by the strong pricing of butadiene [1] Future Outlook - Despite the supportive pricing from the butadiene market, the overall market is expected to face challenges due to abundant supply and insufficient release of downstream tire production capacity, leading to cautious purchasing and price negotiations [1]

Group 1 - Synthetic rubber futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 11,710.0 yuan and closing at 11,805.0 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2.64% [1][2] - Institutions predict that the BR2509 contract will fluctuate in the range of 11,800 to 12,300 yuan in the short term, influenced by easing cost and supply pressures [2] - The trading atmosphere for synthetic rubber has weakened, leading to a short-term price decline, with macroeconomic sentiment also contributing to the overall market pullback [2] Group 2 - Recent supply increases from domestic producers, including Yanshan Petrochemical and Jinzhou Petrochemical, have led to rising inventory levels and increased selling pressure [2] - Demand from downstream tire manufacturers has shown slight improvement, but overall performance remains below expectations, with some companies planning short-term maintenance [2] - The support level for the BR main contract is identified at 11,700 to 11,800 yuan, while resistance is seen at 12,400 to 12,500 yuan [2]

西南期货分析称，原料端，丁二烯价格回调，合成橡胶加工回正；供应端，中国高顺顺丁橡胶行业周度 产能利用率持稳在66%附近，同比处于偏高水平需求端，轮胎企业成品库存高企，出口订单受关税压 制，内需受制于基建投资放缓，购难有增量；库存端，厂家库存环比去库，同比处于偏高水平，贸易商 库存环比累库，同比处于偏高水平。总结：等待企稳参与反弹。 瑞达期货（002961）指出，近期原料丁二烯挺价出货阻力显现，顺丁胶成本面支撑减弱，叠加7月中下 旬国内多数顺丁检修装置重启，供应面存增加预期。上周宏观情绪提振下，主流供价一度明显走高，带 动顺丁胶生产企业库存下降，贸易企业库存小幅提升，本周部分装置重启后产能释放，国内供应预计增 加，而下游持续压价采购，等跌情绪或带动生产企业库存走高。需求方面，上周国内轮胎检修企业排产 逐步提升至常规水平，带动企业整体产能利用率恢复性提升，目前企业排产趋于平稳，中下旬订单存一 定上量，对整体开工仍存小幅带动预期，企业间多根据自身库存及订单情况，灵活调整生产，短期预计 开工率整体波动不大。br2509合约短线预计在11500-12000区间波动。 方正中期期货表示，成本端支撑走强，宏观及板块看涨情绪 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure of synthetic rubber still exists due to the long - term impact of new capacity release, and the demand side is difficult to improve significantly in the short term. The cost side has some support for prices, so the synthetic rubber futures price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the market scale of synthetic rubber is expected to expand with the development of the automotive industry and new energy vehicles. Investors should focus on macro - policies and supply - demand changes [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 2. Synthetic Rubber Industry Chain Analysis - In June, the price of raw material butadiene fluctuated downward, having a continuous negative impact on SBS and limiting its rebound space [5]. 3. Synthetic Rubber Cost and Profit - At the beginning of June, the ex - factory price of butadiene increased by 500 yuan/ton to 12,500 yuan/ton. In June, synthetic rubber enterprises had poor profit conditions and were mostly in a loss state. As of June 12, the production cost of cis - butadiene rubber was 15,985 yuan/ton, and the production profit in Shandong was - 185 yuan/ton. By June 20, the after - tax profit of synthetic rubber was - 1,230.09 yuan/ton. With the loosening of butadiene supply in the second half of June and the decline in price, the profit of synthetic rubber improved slightly [7]. 4. Synthetic Rubber Futures Market - For futures contracts BR2508, BR2509, and BR2510, their monthly opening prices were 10,925 yuan/ton, 10,900 yuan/ton, and 10,845 yuan/ton respectively; the highest prices were 11,780 yuan/ton, 11,685 yuan/ton, and 11,655 yuan/ton respectively; the lowest prices were 10,595 yuan/ton, 10,555 yuan/ton, and 10,540 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices were 11,250 yuan/ton, 11,140 yuan/ton, and 11,085 yuan/ton respectively; the price increases were 255 yuan/ton, 220 yuan/ton, and 165 yuan/ton respectively; the positions were 28,291 lots, 22,101 lots, and 1,968 lots respectively; and the position changes were - 14,518 lots, 8,048 lots, and 1,454 lots respectively [10]. 5. Synthetic Rubber Import and Export Situation - In May, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 607,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to May were 3.476 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.5%. From January to May, the import volume of synthetic rubber increased by 13% year - on - year to 587,000 tons. The overall import volume showed an increasing trend, and the import volume in June may continue to grow without special circumstances [11]. 6. Conclusion and Outlook - In the short - term, the synthetic rubber market has supply pressure, and the demand side is difficult to improve significantly. The cost side supports prices, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the market scale is expected to expand with industry development, and investors should pay attention to macro - policies and supply - demand changes [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to recent geopolitical factors causing an upward trend in crude oil prices, the market's concern about the increase in production costs driving up the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber is gradually rising. Producers' inventory generally decreases, while traders' inventory generally increases. The supply price may remain firm under the influence of cost factors, but the downstream end shows obvious resistance to high prices, and it is expected that the production - sales pressure will be difficult to ease. [2] - This week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises showed mixed trends. Enterprises' production scheduling gradually returned to normal levels. Some enterprises moderately increased production to meet order demands, while a few enterprises suspended production due to power plant maintenance. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate is expected to remain basically stable. The production scheduling of all - steel tire enterprises is temporarily stable, and the resumption of production of semi - steel tire enterprises undergoing maintenance has a certain pulling effect on the overall capacity utilization rate. The r2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,400 - 11,900 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 11,770 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract was 15,134, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,643. The 7 - 8 spread of synthetic rubber was 140 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses was 800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 4,370 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong and Shanghai was 11,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 180 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 170 yuan/ton. [2] - Brent crude oil was 76.7 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.25 US dollars/barrel; naphtha CFR Japan was 633.13 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 7.5 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 820 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,070 US dollars/ton, with no change. WTI crude oil was 75.14 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.3 US dollars/barrel; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,500 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 14.77 million tons/week, with no change; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.96 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 21,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,000 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 45.12%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.88 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 139,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 17,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 65.03%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.22 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 576 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 306 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,900 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 27,650 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 650 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6,210 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 530 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 77.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 4.12 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 61.24%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.23 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 11.82 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.26 million; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 54.15 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.24 million. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 41.74 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.28 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.44 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of June 19, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 200 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. [2] - As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 71.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a week - on - week increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points. [2] - In May 2025, the sales volume of the heavy - truck market in China was about 83,000 (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared with April and a year - on - year increase of about 6% compared with 78,200 in the same period last year. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market in China was about 435,500, a year - on - year increase of about 1%. [2]