本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【8月25日消息：顺丁橡胶市场价格走势受多因素影响】上周五，国内高顺顺丁橡胶市场现货价格偏弱 运行。其中，华北、华东地区BR9000市场价格在11525 - 11650元/吨附近，华南地区BR9000市场价格为 11600 - 11650元/吨。合成橡胶期货价格区间整理，顺丁市场现货持货商报盘多让价，部分牌号惜售。 因顺丁橡胶现货供应补充，买盘刚需询盘，交投重心窄幅回落。不过，预计近日高顺顺丁橡胶市场价格 偏强。今日原料丁二烯价格区间整理，胶价与成本价差偏窄，为顺丁橡胶市场价格提供底部支撑。 期 货夜盘价格拉涨提振了现货交投气氛，且持货商持货成本偏高，现货持货商报盘重心偏强。但市场货源 供应充裕，下游轮胎产能释放不足，原料采买偏观望，压价商谈为主，基本面承压。预计今日现货市场 价格探涨，但幅度受限。 ...

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【8月25日高顺顺丁橡胶市场价格或探涨但幅度受限】上周五，国内高顺顺丁橡胶市场现货价格偏弱运 行。华北、华东地区BR9000市场价格在11525 - 11650元/吨附近，华南地区为11600 - 11650元/吨。合成 橡胶期货价格区间整理，顺丁市场现货持货商报盘多让价，部分牌号惜售。 顺丁橡胶现货供应补充， 买盘刚需询盘，交投重心窄幅回落。预计近日高顺顺丁橡胶市场价格偏强。今日原料丁二烯价格区间整 理，胶价与成本价差偏窄，价格底部支撑仍存。期货夜盘拉涨提振现货交投，持货商成本偏高，报盘重 心偏强。 不过，市场货源供应充裕，下游轮胎产能释放不足，原料采买观望，压价商谈为主，基本面 承压。预计今日现货市场价格探涨，但幅度受限。 ...

【顺丁橡胶市场价格近日波动有限，短期偏强调整】8月7日消息，上一国内高顺顺丁橡胶市场现货价格 变动不大。华北、华东地区BR9000市场价格在11300 - 11400元/吨附近，华南地区为11400 - 11400元/ 吨。 上一合成橡胶期货价格区间震荡，原料丁二烯市场成交好转，持货商报盘探涨。但顺丁橡胶现货充足， 买盘刚需询盘、择低成交，交投重心变化小。 不过市场货源预期充裕，下游轮胎产能释放不足，原料采买观望、压价商谈，预计今日市场价格整理， 探涨较难。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 预计今日高顺顺丁橡胶市场价格窄幅整理。丁二烯市场交投好转、价格偏强，为顺丁橡胶提供底部支 撑。期货夜盘波动对现货指引有限，持货商或延续探涨。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure of synthetic rubber still exists due to the long - term impact of new capacity release, and the demand side is difficult to improve significantly in the short term. The cost side has some support for prices, so the synthetic rubber futures price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the market scale of synthetic rubber is expected to expand with the development of the automotive industry and new energy vehicles. Investors should focus on macro - policies and supply - demand changes [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 2. Synthetic Rubber Industry Chain Analysis - In June, the price of raw material butadiene fluctuated downward, having a continuous negative impact on SBS and limiting its rebound space [5]. 3. Synthetic Rubber Cost and Profit - At the beginning of June, the ex - factory price of butadiene increased by 500 yuan/ton to 12,500 yuan/ton. In June, synthetic rubber enterprises had poor profit conditions and were mostly in a loss state. As of June 12, the production cost of cis - butadiene rubber was 15,985 yuan/ton, and the production profit in Shandong was - 185 yuan/ton. By June 20, the after - tax profit of synthetic rubber was - 1,230.09 yuan/ton. With the loosening of butadiene supply in the second half of June and the decline in price, the profit of synthetic rubber improved slightly [7]. 4. Synthetic Rubber Futures Market - For futures contracts BR2508, BR2509, and BR2510, their monthly opening prices were 10,925 yuan/ton, 10,900 yuan/ton, and 10,845 yuan/ton respectively; the highest prices were 11,780 yuan/ton, 11,685 yuan/ton, and 11,655 yuan/ton respectively; the lowest prices were 10,595 yuan/ton, 10,555 yuan/ton, and 10,540 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices were 11,250 yuan/ton, 11,140 yuan/ton, and 11,085 yuan/ton respectively; the price increases were 255 yuan/ton, 220 yuan/ton, and 165 yuan/ton respectively; the positions were 28,291 lots, 22,101 lots, and 1,968 lots respectively; and the position changes were - 14,518 lots, 8,048 lots, and 1,454 lots respectively [10]. 5. Synthetic Rubber Import and Export Situation - In May, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 607,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to May were 3.476 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.5%. From January to May, the import volume of synthetic rubber increased by 13% year - on - year to 587,000 tons. The overall import volume showed an increasing trend, and the import volume in June may continue to grow without special circumstances [11]. 6. Conclusion and Outlook - In the short - term, the synthetic rubber market has supply pressure, and the demand side is difficult to improve significantly. The cost side supports prices, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the market scale is expected to expand with industry development, and investors should pay attention to macro - policies and supply - demand changes [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to recent geopolitical factors causing an upward trend in crude oil prices, the market's concern about the increase in production costs driving up the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber is gradually rising. Producers' inventory generally decreases, while traders' inventory generally increases. The supply price may remain firm under the influence of cost factors, but the downstream end shows obvious resistance to high prices, and it is expected that the production - sales pressure will be difficult to ease. [2] - This week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises showed mixed trends. Enterprises' production scheduling gradually returned to normal levels. Some enterprises moderately increased production to meet order demands, while a few enterprises suspended production due to power plant maintenance. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate is expected to remain basically stable. The production scheduling of all - steel tire enterprises is temporarily stable, and the resumption of production of semi - steel tire enterprises undergoing maintenance has a certain pulling effect on the overall capacity utilization rate. The r2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,400 - 11,900 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 11,770 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract was 15,134, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,643. The 7 - 8 spread of synthetic rubber was 140 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses was 800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 4,370 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong and Shanghai was 11,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 180 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 170 yuan/ton. [2] - Brent crude oil was 76.7 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.25 US dollars/barrel; naphtha CFR Japan was 633.13 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 7.5 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 820 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,070 US dollars/ton, with no change. WTI crude oil was 75.14 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.3 US dollars/barrel; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,500 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 14.77 million tons/week, with no change; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.96 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 21,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,000 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 45.12%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.88 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 139,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 17,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 65.03%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.22 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 576 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 306 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,900 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 27,650 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 650 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6,210 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 530 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 77.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 4.12 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 61.24%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.23 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 11.82 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.26 million; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 54.15 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.24 million. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 41.74 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.28 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.44 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of June 19, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 200 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. [2] - As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 71.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a week - on - week increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points. [2] - In May 2025, the sales volume of the heavy - truck market in China was about 83,000 (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared with April and a year - on - year increase of about 6% compared with 78,200 in the same period last year. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market in China was about 435,500, a year - on - year increase of about 1%. [2]

Group 1 - Synthetic rubber futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 11,560.0 yuan, with a current price of 11,455.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.19% [1] - New Lake Futures indicated that the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are generally weak, with high production, weak demand, and difficulty in inventory reduction leading to thin profits [1] - The price of synthetic rubber is closely related to the raw material butadiene, which is currently in a maintenance season, making significant recovery in supply unlikely [1] Group 2 - Ruida Futures forecasted that the BR2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,700 to 11,300 yuan in the short term [2] - The supply of butadiene is relatively sufficient, which weakens the cost support for the production of styrene-butadiene rubber [2] - Domestic tire manufacturers' capacity utilization rates have continued to decline, and while some companies are resuming operations, overall orders remain weak, leading to slow inventory reduction [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,750 - 11,500 in the short - term [7]. - This week, the domestic butadiene rubber futures price declined and then rebounded. The spot - futures price difference widened, and the raw material trading improved, but the downstream demand was weak [8]. - Recently, the production cost of butadiene rubber has slightly decreased but there are still losses. Some private enterprises may further reduce production. Under the influence of weak cost and bearish macro - economic expectations, traders are selling at a loss. The inventory of producers increased slightly this week, while that of traders decreased slightly [8]. - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises continued to decline this week. After the "Dragon Boat Festival" holiday, most enterprises have resumed production, but the overall orders of tire enterprises are average, and the inventory removal is slow. Some enterprises still have maintenance plans, which will limit the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,750 - 11,500 in the short - term [7]. - Market review: This week, the domestic butadiene rubber futures price declined and then rebounded. The mainstream sales company lowered the ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber by 300 yuan/ton. As of June 5, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was 11,400 - 11,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Market outlook: The production cost of butadiene rubber has slightly decreased but there are still losses. The inventory of producers increased slightly, and that of traders decreased slightly. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises continued to decline. After the holiday, most enterprises have resumed production, but the overall orders are average, and some enterprises still have maintenance plans [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures market** - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract rose by 1.39% this week [12]. - As of June 6, the 7 - 8 spread of butadiene rubber was 145 [20]. - As of June 6, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 5,950 tons, a decrease of 260 tons from last week [23]. - **Spot market** - As of June 5, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - As of June 5, the basis of butadiene rubber was 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 235 yuan/ton from last week [28]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - As of June 5, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 557.13 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 780 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [31]. - As of June 6, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.02%, a decrease of 1.08% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 27,000 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from last week [34]. - **Industry** - In May 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 139,400 tons, an increase of 17,900 tons from last month [38]. - As of June 5, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 67.25%, a decrease of 6.29% from last week [38]. - As of June 5, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 882 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton from last week [41]. - As of June 6, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 34,000 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 28,300 tons, an increase of 200 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 5,680 tons, a decrease of 680 tons from last week [46]. - **Downstream** - As of June 5, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.05%, a decrease of 8.46 percentage points from the previous week and 16.12 percentage points from the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.65%, a decrease of 5.15 percentage points from the previous week and 5.94 percentage points from the same period last year [49]. - In April 2025, China's tire export volume was 696,800 tons, a decrease of 7.14% from the previous month and an increase of 6.11% from the same period last year. From January to April, the cumulative tire export volume was 2,645,500 tons, a cumulative increase of 6.01% from the same period last year [52]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No information provided.

5月28日盘中，合成橡胶期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至11155.0元。截止发稿，合成橡胶 主力合约报11210.0元，跌幅3.24%。 机构 核心观点 方正中期期货 合成橡胶或弱势盘整 瑞达期货（002961） br2507合约短线预计在11250-11850区间波动 方正中期期货：合成橡胶或弱势盘整 天然橡胶板块走强提振合成橡胶市场情绪，期价在支撑位附近有所止跌，但成本端支撑延续弱化。今日 丁二烯现货价格持续下调，主要受下游需求偏弱影响，成交不足拖拽其价格下行。合成橡胶期价近日波 动剧烈，当前市场观望氛围偏浓，需求方谨慎关注原料端行情走势及主流供方价格政策指引，采购积极 性不高。现货市场价格缺乏有效支撑，且仍有部分老仓单低价资源流通，整体买盘延续低价跟进且难有 放量。在丁二烯期价止跌企稳之前，合成橡胶向上驱动不足。但值得关注的是，合成橡胶仓单将在6月 集中注销，当前主力虚实盘比快速大幅走强，不排除到时多头资金交易仓单题材。【交易策略】天胶走 强提振合成胶市场情绪，但基本面利好驱动不足，合成橡胶或弱势盘整，但仓单风险值得关注。操作上 建议暂时观望，BR主力支撑位11400-11500，压力位118 ...