证券代码：600378 证券简称：昊华科技 公告编号：临 2025-062 说明：氟碳化学品受配额政策影响，市场供需情况改善，价格持续上涨；含氟锂 电材料受市场供需错配影响，价格走低；橡胶制品规格型号较多，价格变化大； 特种轮胎系产品销售结构变化，均价下降；催化剂价格变动主要系减少了低附加 值产品销售占比。 说明：受化工大宗原材料波动影响，部分主要原材料价格波动较大。 主要产品 2025 年 1-6 月平均售 价（元/吨） 2024 年 1-6 月平均售 价（元/吨） 变动比率（%） 氟碳化学品 43,765.74 30,220.44 44.82 含氟锂电材料 18,272.52 27,214.01 -32.86 含氟聚合物 38,362.24 39,697.62 -3.36 含氟精细化学品 41,193.44 45,415.26 -9.30 含氟气体 95,460.20 99,637.13 -4.19 橡胶制品（万件） 456,918.40 318,437.29 43.49 特种轮胎（条） 4,235.35 6,320.35 -32.99 特种涂料 52,387.80 46,429.52 12.83 聚氨酯 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber sector continued to strengthen with the macro - environment this week, showing a pattern of widespread simultaneous rises and falls among commodities. The volatility of the rubber sector reached a 5 - year high under the dual drive of the macro - environment and events. Attention can be paid to the strategy of shorting volatility. The market may return to the fundamentals of limited improvement after the macro - sentiment fades [3][5]. - The supply of synthetic rubber has become slightly looser, with a slight increase in the production of butadiene rubber and a slight decrease in the production of semi - steel tires [4]. - Some macro data, such as the CSI 1000 Index and the Citi G10 Economic Surprise Index, are favorable for the unilateral trend of RU, while the supply data of natural rubber shows that only the price of smoked sheet rubber has slightly stabilized and rebounded, and the fundamentals for a recovery are not solid [5]. - The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has affected the market, but the market mainly followed the macro - strengthening logic after a short - term reaction to the potential supply tightening. If the domestic macro - drive weakens next week and the conflict escalates, it may become the main contradiction again [5]. - The mixed basis is bearish and has not been affected by the macro - warming. The supply of natural and synthetic rubber has certain changes, which has an impact on the trend of RU [27][37]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - related Data - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6476 points, reaching a new high since January 2016. The average value in the past 6 months increased by +19.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for 12 consecutive months, which is favorable for the unilateral trend of RU [5][18]. - The Citi G10 Economic Surprise Index reported +12.4 points, with the average value in the past 6 months increasing by +6.6 points year - on - year, and the increase expanding for 2 consecutive months, which is also favorable for the unilateral trend of RU [5][18]. 3.2 Impact of the Thailand - Cambodia Border Conflict - Four Thai provinces affected by the conflict account for about 7% of Thailand's total rubber production. In 2024, the total rubber production of these four provinces was 34.1 tons, accounting for 7.1% of Thailand's total production of 478.9 tons. Cambodia's total production in 2024 was 40.7 tons [20][22]. - The RU - NR spread is a good indicator to reflect the impact of the Thailand - Cambodia border conflict. Currently, NR is relatively weak compared to RU, but the conflict is expected to suppress the supply of 20 - grade rubber and make NR relatively stronger. The spread started to move before the unilateral increase on July 24, confirming the supply logic in advance [25][26]. 3.3 Mixed Basis and Supply - demand Factors - In May, the total import volume of standard and mixed rubber from Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia decreased for 2 consecutive months, but the average import volume in the past 6 months increased by +10.1% year - on - year, with the marginal increase for 10 consecutive months, which is bearish for the mixed rubber [28]. - In June, the total import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in China decreased for 3 consecutive months, reaching 60.0 tons. The production of synthetic rubber increased month - on - month, reaching 70.3 tons, and the production of natural rubber increased for 3 consecutive months in May, reaching 9.7 tons. The total of these is 140.0 tons, with the cumulative volume in the past 3 months increasing by +9.3% year - on - year, and the increase narrowing for 2 consecutive months, which is favorable for the unilateral trend of RU [37]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Supply - The capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene increased to 70.0%, with the average capacity utilization rate in the past 5 weeks increasing by +2.3% year - on - year, and the marginal decrease for 4 consecutive weeks. The capacity utilization rate of domestic high - cis butadiene rubber increased to 67.6%, with the average capacity utilization rate in the past 5 weeks increasing by +9.4% year - on - year, showing a marginal increase [49]. - The port inventory of domestic butadiene decreased for 2 consecutive weeks, reaching 1.57 tons, with the average inventory in the past 5 weeks increasing by +0.21 tons year - on - year, and the marginal decrease for 4 consecutive weeks. The total inventory of domestic butadiene rubber in traders and factories is 3.23 tons, with the average inventory in 5 weeks increasing by +0.90 tons year - on - year, and the marginal decrease for 4 consecutive weeks [49]. 3.5 Tire Consumption - The production line operating rate of domestic all - steel tires decreased to 65.0%, with the average operating rate in the past 12 weeks increasing by +3.9% year - on - year, and the marginal increase for 9 consecutive weeks. The finished product inventory of all - steel tires remained unchanged at 41 days, with the average inventory in 24 weeks decreasing by - 2.7% year - on - year, and the marginal decrease for 53 consecutive weeks [60]. - The production line operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires decreased to 75.9%, with the average operating rate in the past 24 weeks increasing by +3.4% year - on - year, showing a marginal decrease. The product inventory of semi - steel tires increased by 1 day to 47 days, with the average inventory in the past 24 weeks increasing by +36.5% year - on - year, and the marginal decrease for 9 consecutive weeks [60]. 3.6 NR Month - spread - The daily average open interest of the NR contract is equivalent to 115.90 tons, the warehouse receipt volume is 3.48 tons, and the virtual - to - real ratio is 32.30 times. Since the virtual - to - real ratio lags behind the month - spread, it is expected that the decline in the open interest of the NR contract will be greater than the reduction in warehouse receipts in the later period [65]. - From a long - term perspective, the NR month - spread may strengthen until September, and there is a large expectation of weakening after that (the near - month contract weakens). Attention can be paid to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage when the month - spread weakens [65].

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber futures market is showing a strong performance, with prices increasing and various factors influencing supply and demand dynamics [1] Price Movement - As of July 25, the main contract for natural rubber is priced at 15,625.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 3.20% increase [1] - The Shanghai market's 2023 SCRWF mainstream transaction price ranges from 15,350 to 15,400 CNY/ton, up by 400 CNY/ton from the previous day [1] Supply Dynamics - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a total of 186,680 tons of natural rubber warehouse receipts as of July 24, a decrease of 20 tons from the previous week [1] - Thailand's natural rubber exports for the first half of 2025 totaled 1.386 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2% [1] - Specific export figures include: standard rubber at 804,000 tons (down 12% year-on-year), sheet rubber at 196,000 tons (up 26%), and latex at 377,000 tons (up 12%) [1] Market Sentiment - According to Guotai Junan Futures, the upward momentum in the rubber market is slightly weakening, with a diminishing bullish sentiment and increased resistance from downstream buyers towards high-priced sources [1] - Hualian Futures notes that large-scale infrastructure projects are beneficial for the demand of all-steel tires, with macroeconomic expectations supporting rubber prices [1] Demand Factors - Domestic real estate sector struggles are negatively impacting rubber demand, with a deepening year-on-year decline in real estate development investment from January to June [1] - However, demand from large engineering projects is improving heavy truck sales, which saw a year-on-year increase of approximately 29% in June [1] - The operating rate for all-steel tires is at a relatively low level, while the operating rate for semi-steel tires has recently rebounded significantly [1] Operational Recommendations - The recommendation is to reduce long positions while maintaining holdings, with the support level for RU09 raised to around 14,500 CNY [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of the rubber sector are weak. The sharp rise in the rubber sector on Thursday was likely due to macro - factors as its ranking in commodities did not significantly improve after the rise. The rumored reasons such as smoke sheet rubber storage and Southeast Asian rainstorms did not match the time and data, and the early implementation of EUDR is unlikely [3]. - From the perspective of synthetic rubber, the high - frequency data of the upstream and downstream are favorable. The BR - RU spread continued to strengthen this week, and there is a better safety margin for relatively long - BR in July [3]. - Analyzing the import, inventory, and downstream automobile tire consumption data of natural rubber, it is expected that the mixed basis still has room to weaken [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Thailand Rainfall and Rubber - Thailand's daily - average weighted rainfall decreased month - on - month to 4.49mm/day. The average rainfall in the past 9 months increased by +1.91mm/day year - on - year, but the increase has been narrowing for 3 consecutive months. The decrease in rainfall did not lead to a monthly - level increase in rainfall [9]. - The spread between Thailand's smoked sheet rubber and standard rubber decreased month - on - month to +533 dollars/ton. The average premium in the past 12 months increased by +31.0% year - on - year, but the increase has been narrowing for 9 consecutive months [9]. 3.2 Thailand Glue and Cup Lumps - The spread between Thailand's cup lumps and glue strengthened month - on - month to - 6.70 Thai baht/kg. The average value in the past 12 months strengthened by +2.56 Thai baht/kg year - on - year, and it has been strengthening marginally for 8 consecutive months, which is bearish for RU unilateral [15]. 3.3 EUDR - EUDR is unlikely to be implemented ahead of schedule under the background of the decline of environmental protection in Europe. Policy adjustments, industry and economic resistance, and political and social factors have all led to the obstruction of environmental protection policies [18][19]. 3.4 Rubber Valuation - The position of rubber valuation in commodities has only slightly increased. After the sharp rise on Thursday, the ranking of the rubber sector in commodities did not change significantly [3][20]. 3.5 Rubber Production - In May, the output of the rubber alliance increased month - on - month to 767,000 tons, but decreased by - 3.2% year - on - year, with marginal production cuts for 4 consecutive months. In the long term, when the output of natural rubber is high, it is relatively weak compared to synthetic rubber, and vice versa. The current situation is bearish for the BR - RU spread and relatively bullish for RU [25]. 3.6 Crude Oil - As of July, Brent crude oil was at 68.3 dollars/barrel, a year - on - year decrease of - 20.5%. Crude oil is still in a weakening trend. The cycle of crude oil's influence on the strength of rubber unilateral is about 2 years, and about 1 year for synthetic rubber. The current stabilization of crude oil has little driving effect on the unilateral, and is more favorable for the long - BR and short - RU spread [28]. 3.7 Synthetic Rubber Supply - As of last Friday, the domestic butadiene capacity utilization rate decreased month - on - month to 68.9%. The average capacity utilization rate in the past 5 weeks increased by +4.4% year - on - year, with marginal production cuts for 2 consecutive weeks. The domestic high - cis butadiene rubber capacity utilization rate decreased month - on - month to 65.5%. The average capacity utilization rate in the past 5 weeks increased by +8.5% year - on - year, but the increase has been narrowing for 6 consecutive weeks. The domestic butadiene port inventory increased month - on - month to 23,600 tons, and the average inventory in the past 5 weeks increased by +4,700 tons year - on - year, with marginal destocking for 3 consecutive weeks. The total inventory of domestic butadiene rubber traders and factories was 32,800 tons, and the 5 - week average inventory increased by +10,000 tons year - on - year, with the increase narrowing for 2 consecutive months. The supply and balance of butadiene and butadiene rubber were tight this week [36]. 3.8 Tire Consumption - As of last Friday, the overall tire production and inventory balance data were satisfactory. The domestic all - steel tire production line operating rate increased month - on - month to 64.6%. The average operating rate in the past 12 weeks increased by +3.9% year - on - year, with marginal production increases for 7 consecutive weeks. The all - steel tire finished product inventory increased by 1 day month - on - month to 41 days, and the 24 - week average inventory decreased by - 1.6% year - on - year, with marginal destocking for 51 consecutive weeks. The domestic semi - steel tire production line operating rate increased month - on - month to 72.9%. The average operating rate in the past 24 weeks decreased by - 2.3% year - on - year, with marginal production increases for 5 consecutive weeks. The semi - steel tire product inventory remained flat month - on - month at 46 days, and the average inventory in the past 24 weeks increased by +36.5% year - on - year, with marginal destocking for 7 consecutive weeks [46]. 3.9 Automobile Production - In May, China's truck production decreased month - on - month to 292,000 vehicles; in March, Japan's truck production increased month - on - month to 96,000 vehicles; in April, South Korea's truck production remained flat at 17,000 vehicles. The combined output was 405,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of +3.0%, and the 12 - month cumulative value decreased by - 14.6% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for 4 consecutive months. In May, China's passenger car production increased month - on - month to 2.133 million vehicles; in March, Japan's passenger car production decreased month - on - month to 618,000 vehicles; in April, South Korea's passenger car production increased month - on - month to 360,000 vehicles. The combined output was 3.291 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of +8.5%, and the 12 - month cumulative output decreased by - 4.4% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for 4 consecutive months, which is bullish for RU unilateral. The automobile industries of China, Japan, and South Korea have been recovering marginally for 4 consecutive months, but it is still early for them to become an obvious driving force for the unilateral [53]. 3.10 NR Month - Spread - As of July, the average daily open interest of the NR contract was equivalent to 1.1787 million tons, the warehouse receipt volume was 32,100 tons, and the virtual - to - real ratio was 36.06 times. Since the virtual - to - real ratio lags behind the month - spread, it is expected that the decline in the open interest of the NR contract will be greater than the destocking of warehouse receipts in the later period. From the long - term relationship, the NR month - spread may strengthen until September, and there is a large expectation of weakening after that (near - month weakening). Attention should be paid to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage when the month - spread weakens [58]. 3.11 Mixed Basis - In May, the total import volume of standard rubber and mixed rubber from Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia was 321,600 tons, with a consecutive 2 - month month - on - month decrease. The average import volume in the past 6 months increased by +10.1% year - on - year, with marginal increases for 10 consecutive months, which is bearish for mixed rubber. Analyzing various data, it is expected that the mixed basis still has room to weaken [62].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling this week, remaining in a volatile trend. The premium effect of external market emergencies is gradually dissipating, and the rubber price has declined accordingly. Considering the absolute price and seasonal cycle, it is believed that the market is more likely to maintain a small - scale oscillation, and short - term operations are recommended [2][3][7]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Review - The RU2509 contract opened at 13870, reached a high of 14100, a low of 13705, and closed at 13900, with a gain of +0.18%. The NR2508 contract opened at 12030, reached a high of 12315, a low of 11755, and closed at 12010, with a loss of - 0.08%. The BR2507 contract opened at 11420, reached a high of 11915, a low of 11270, and closed at 11630, with a gain of +2.11% [3]. - The market rose first and then fell this week, remaining in a volatile trend. The premium effect of external market emergencies is gradually dissipating, causing the price to decline [3]. Spot Market Review - The price of 23 - year state - owned whole latex in Shanghai and Yunnan, including 9% tax, is 13950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week. - The price of smoked sheet rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 2300 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week. - The price of BR9000 in Shanghai is 11875 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last week [4]. Inventory Situation Review - The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed mixed changes this week. The subtotal inventory increased by 2747 tons to 212714 tons, while the futures inventory decreased by 230 tons to 192840 tons [5]. Market Structure The basis this week decreased slightly compared with last week. Since the spot price increased more, the spot is still at a premium to the futures [6]. Forecast and Operation Strategy - The Thai raw material prices continued to rise this week, with cup rubber leading the market. - The operating rate of tire enterprises has rebounded, with a larger rebound in the all - steel tire sector. In terms of tire enterprise inventory, the semi - steel tire inventory increased, while the all - steel tire inventory remained unchanged. - The sudden stimulus effect of the rise in crude oil prices caused by the Middle East situation on commodities is starting to fade, and the rubber price has declined accordingly. Considering the absolute price and seasonal cycle, the market is more likely to maintain a small - scale oscillation, and short - term operations are recommended [7].

Summary of Rubber Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the natural rubber industry, particularly in Thailand and China, discussing supply, demand, pricing, and market dynamics for 2025 [1][2][5][6]. Key Points Supply Dynamics - Thailand's natural rubber exports increased by over 30% from January to May 2025, while production only grew by 5-8%, leading to accelerated domestic inventory depletion [1][2]. - Domestic prices for raw rubber in Hainan have been declining since May 2025, despite a late harvesting season [2][4]. - The total production of all-latex in Yunnan reached 20,000 tons by early June 2025, nearly doubling year-on-year, contributing to a weaker RU futures market [4][6]. - Upstream processing profits are relatively low, with losses between $10 and $20 per ton, indicating a less severe loss compared to previous years [2][3]. Import Trends - Domestic natural rubber imports increased by over 20% from January to May 2025, but low import profits since April have reduced import enthusiasm, potentially leading to a decline in imports starting August [5][6]. Demand Trends - The demand side is showing weakness, with increased inventory levels and reduced confidence among tire manufacturers. The cancellation of automotive incentives has further dampened expectations for vehicle sales in the second half of 2025 [6][7]. - The overall demand for natural rubber is expected to weaken in the second half of 2025, with supply growth outpacing demand growth significantly [7][8]. Price Outlook - The supply growth rate is projected to exceed 20% in the first half of 2025, while demand growth is only 2-3%, indicating a supply surplus for the year [7][8]. - If rapid inventory depletion occurs starting in August, it may support spot prices, leading to potential price recovery in the latter half of the year [7][8]. Market Risks and Considerations - The market is currently in a weak oscillation phase, with limited upward momentum and potential for further declines if supply remains stable and demand continues to weaken [8][9]. - The upstream sector is facing losses of 500-600 RMB per ton, which could create a relatively safe short position if raw material prices do not decline [9][10]. - The impact of international oil price increases on synthetic rubber could indirectly affect natural rubber prices, although no significant changes have been observed yet [12]. Future Market Influences - The development of the electric vehicle industry and the cancellation of subsidies may negatively impact automotive consumption, leading to increased inventory pressure on tire manufacturers [13][14]. - The U.S. tariffs on Chinese tire exports could affect the market dynamics, particularly for semi-steel and full-steel tires, with potential implications for pricing and supply chains [15][16]. Production Capacity Adjustments - Major global tire manufacturers have begun to reduce production capacity in response to economic conditions and raw material price fluctuations, which may lead to short-term supply reductions and price support [23]. - China's tire production capacity expansion in Southeast Asia contrasts with the global trend of capacity reduction, indicating a potential oversupply situation in the future [24][25]. Conclusion - The natural rubber market is currently characterized by a supply surplus, weak demand, and declining prices, with various external factors influencing future trends. The industry must navigate these challenges while monitoring inventory levels and potential policy changes that could impact market dynamics [1][7][24].

主要原料 2024 年平均采购价（元/吨） 2023 年平均采购价（元/吨） 变动比率（%） 氟化锂 138,604.04 363,501.24 -61.87 氢氟酸 9,153.31 8,713.13 5.05 三氯甲烷 2,504.85 2,394.11 4.63 生胶 31,089.38 33,483.86 -7.15 烟片胶 19,316.16 14,449.56 33.68 聚醚多元醇 9,685.16 10,576.96 -8.43 MDI 15,071.99 15,519.58 -2.88 TDI 16,452.66 17,381.22 -5.34 二甲苯 6,615.49 5,955.96 11.07 环氧树脂 12,426.62 12,876.40 -3.49 三、主要原材料的价格变动情况（不含税） 四、其他对公司生产经营具有重大影响的事项 公司发行股份购买中化蓝天集团有限公司 100%股权已完成交割 过户，中化蓝天集团有限公司成为公司全资子公司，从 2024 年 7 月 起纳入公司合并财务报表范围。 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏，并对其内 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the natural rubber industry, indicating potential for demand recovery and supply tightening, which may lead to a prolonged boom cycle [3][10]. Core Insights - Natural rubber is one of the four major industrial raw materials and is expected to experience a demand rebound and supply constraints in the coming years, potentially leading to a long-term favorable market cycle [3][10]. - The report highlights the importance of tire manufacturing as the primary demand driver for natural rubber, with non-tire applications in medical and electronic sectors showing significant growth potential [7][55]. Demand Side - The global demand for natural rubber is on an upward trend, primarily driven by tire manufacturing, which accounts for approximately 70% of natural rubber usage [43][51]. - The growth rate of global automobile ownership is expected to return to 2.0% to 2.5%, which will positively impact natural rubber demand [49]. - Non-tire demand, particularly in the medical sector due to aging populations and increased healthcare needs, is projected to maintain rapid growth [55][62]. Supply Side - The natural rubber planting boom has been stagnant for about a decade, with significant new planting activity occurring primarily in Thailand and Indonesia [8][71]. - The long maturation period of rubber trees (7-8 years) makes supply predictions more straightforward, but the lack of new planting could lead to future supply constraints [67][71]. Substitutes and Market Dynamics - The supply of synthetic rubber, particularly the core raw material butadiene, is expected to tighten, which may increase the demand for natural rubber as a substitute [9][10]. - The report notes that the price of natural rubber is highly correlated with synthetic rubber prices, indicating potential for price increases in the event of supply disruptions in synthetic rubber production [9][42]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic companies such as Hainan Rubber, which may benefit from the anticipated market dynamics of natural rubber [10].