3 月 GTC 大会热点展望 - 掘金 AIDC 系列电话会议 20260301 摘要 GPU 功率提升推动三次电源架构变革，模块化和 IVR 方案成潜在趋势。 传统分立式方案面临器件堆叠、布线损耗等瓶颈，模块化供电通过立体 PCB 集成电感、电容等，节省空间并提升耐流，IVR 方案则通过芯片内 部集成电源，降低电流需求，GTC 大会或将催化相关技术落地。 三次电源模块化升级对 PCB 工艺提出更高要求，需在设计阶段协同电源 设计，并引入新材料和压合工艺。中富电路已进入 MPS、伟创力等三次 电源供应链，威尔高也在推进。电源 PCB 市场规模相对较小，但与客户 配合迭代设计至关重要，较早布局者有望脱颖而出。 英伟达 Rubin Ultra 代际基本确定导入 HVC（800V）方案，以降低电 流和损耗。麦格米特已在英伟达供应链内，配合进行产品开发与预研， 进度领先大陆厂商。欧陆通等谷歌链电源厂商以及铂科新材等电感材料 企业也有望受益。 GTC 大会重点展示 Quantum 3,400 以及以太网 6,800、6,810 三款 CPO 交换机，量产时间预计在 2026 年底至 2027 年初。台积电良率提 升至 ...

Summary of Conference Call on CPU Industry and CPO Technology Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the CPU industry and the advancements in CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technology, driven by the increasing demand for AI computing power and the introduction of Nvidia's Rubin Ultra chip architecture [1][4][6]. Key Points and Arguments - **CPO Technology Development**: CPO switches are expected to address data center computing power bottlenecks, with energy consumption reduced by 20%-40% [1]. TSMC's CPO switch yield has improved to 30%, laying the groundwork for mass production [1][4]. - **Market Growth Projections**: Global CPU switch production is expected to be revised upwards to 20,000-30,000 units in 2026 and reach 100,000-150,000 units in 2027, driven by new market demands for in-cabinet optical communication [2][17]. - **Industry Dynamics**: The current cycle of CPU industry speculation is fundamentally different from previous years, as it is driven by industrial logic rather than mere market expectations. The transition from anticipation to actual orders and performance is underway [3][4]. - **Technological Drivers**: The demand for higher bandwidth and transmission efficiency from Nvidia's Rubin Ultra is accelerating the application of CPU technology [4][6]. The integration of ASIC chips and optical modules in CPO switches enhances system performance and reduces energy consumption significantly [8][10]. Potential Investment Opportunities - **Core Companies to Watch**: Recommended companies include Tianfu Communication, Juchuang Technology, Zhishang, Yuanjie, Guangku, and Shijia, which are well-positioned to benefit from the accelerated development of the CPU industry [7][16]. - **Chinese Companies' Growth Potential**: Chinese firms like Tianfu Communication and Xinyisheng are expected to gain market share in the assembly of optical engines and passive components as CPU production ramps up [12][15]. Additional Insights - **Cost Structure of Nvidia's Quantum X Switch**: The market price is approximately $120,000, with assembly costs around $60,000, where the optical engine system accounts for over 50% of the total cost [13][18]. - **NPO vs. CPO**: NPO (Next-Generation Pluggable Optics) is seen as a more stable alternative to CPO, likely to be adopted first due to its design that allows for easier integration while maintaining system stability [20][21]. - **Market Sentiment**: There is a strong belief that companies like Xuchuang and Xinyisheng will see significant growth due to their positioning in the new in-cabinet optical communication market, which is expected to provide substantial performance elasticity [22]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the CPU industry and CPO technology, highlighting the expected growth, technological advancements, and potential investment opportunities.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the communication industry [9]. Core Insights - The communication sector experienced a decline of 5.63% in the 42nd week of 2025, ranking 28th among primary industries in the Yangtze River region. However, since the beginning of 2025, the sector has risen by 50.74%, ranking 2nd among primary industries [2][4]. - OpenAI has partnered with NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom to establish a 26 GW computing power layout, launching a $1 trillion five-year plan to support long-term expansion through diversified business models [5][7]. - At ECOC 2025, Broadcom's CPO achieved a million-port-hour fault-free operation with a 65% reduction in power consumption. The OCP 2025 introduced the ESUN standardized project to accelerate the evolution of optical interconnects within open Ethernet ecosystems [6][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 42nd week of 2025, the communication sector fell by 5.63%, while it has increased by 50.74% since the start of the year, ranking 2nd among primary industries [2][4]. OpenAI's Strategic Initiatives - OpenAI's five-year plan includes partnerships with NVIDIA for a 10 GW AI computing cluster, AMD for 6 GW of GPU deployment, and Broadcom for developing ASIC chips, totaling approximately 26 GW of computing power with an investment exceeding $1 trillion [5]. Technological Developments - Broadcom's CPO switch demonstrated zero link disruption over a million 400G equivalent port hours, with a significant reduction in optical power consumption. The ESUN project aims to standardize Ethernet for low-latency, high-reliability applications, promoting the transition from proprietary solutions to standard Ethernet [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies across various segments, including: - Telecom Operators: China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom - Optical Modules: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication - Liquid Cooling: Yingweike - AI Applications: Boshi Jie, Heertai, Tuobang Co., Yiyuan Communication - Satellite Applications: Huace Navigation, Haige Communication [7].

Group 1 - The communication sector underperformed the market in September, with the communication index down 0.15% compared to a 3.20% increase in the CSI 300 index, ranking 14th among 31 primary industries [2][14] - The PE valuation for the communication sector was 23.8 times in September, slightly below the historical median of 33.6 times over the past decade [2][16] - Key performers in the communication sector included optical devices, IDC, and optical fiber cables, with notable stock increases from companies like Tengjing Technology (+66%), Chunzong Technology (+92%), and Yuanjie Technology (+44%) [2][22] Group 2 - The global AI sector remains robust, with North American CSPs planning to invest over $370 billion in capital expenditures for FY2025, a 40% increase year-on-year [3][27] - Oracle reported a significant increase in its remaining performance obligations (RPO), reaching $455 billion, indicating strong future revenue potential [3][30] - The global Ethernet switch market is projected to reach $14.5 billion in Q2 2025, reflecting a 42.1% year-on-year growth, driven by data center demand [3][33] Group 3 - Domestic CSPs in China are expected to invest over 450 billion yuan in AI computing power by 2025, with companies like Alibaba and Tencent leading the charge [4][50] - The industrialization of domestic super-node data centers is accelerating, with Alibaba launching its new generation of AI servers and Huawei showcasing significant advancements in computing clusters [4][52][58] - The demand for optical modules remains high, with ongoing advancements in CPO and OCS technologies, as major chip manufacturers increase their orders to meet AI server requirements [4][70] Group 4 - Investment recommendations emphasize the importance of AI computing infrastructure, suggesting continued focus on optical devices, communication equipment, and liquid cooling technologies [5][21] - The three major telecom operators are highlighted as important assets for long-term investment due to their stable operations and increasing dividend payouts [5][21] - A recommended investment portfolio includes China Mobile, Zhongji Xuchuang, ZTE, and Guanghetong for September 2025 [5][21]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the AI chip sector, particularly in the context of domestic developments and overseas demand for servers and optical modules [4]. Core Insights - Domestic AI development is driving growth in sectors such as servers and IDC, while overseas AI advancements are boosting demand for servers and optical modules [4]. - The launch of DeepSeek-V3.1 is expected to facilitate the large-scale deployment of domestic AI chips, enhancing the competitive landscape [1][2]. - The liquid cooling market is anticipated to expand significantly, with companies like Invec benefiting from strong demand in AI data centers [1][12]. Summary by Sections Communication Sector - Telecom business revenue reached 905.5 billion yuan in the first half of the year, showing a year-on-year growth of 1% [3][14]. - The number of fixed broadband users reached 684 million, with gigabit users accounting for 33% [20]. Server Sector - The server index increased by 8.30% this week and 17.28% this month, with Industrial Fulian reporting improved efficiency and yield for its GB200 and GB300 models [2][6]. - GB300 is expected to become a significant profit driver for the company's AI server business next year [6]. Optical Module Sector - The optical module index rose by 4.34% this week and 14.59% this month, driven by Google's adoption of OCS technology [2][9]. - Coherent and Lumentum reported their first revenue from OCS orders, indicating market expansion [9]. IDC Sector - The IDC index increased by 6.78% this week and 14.41% this month, with DeepSeek-V3.1's release expected to alleviate the shortage of domestic AI inference cards [2][12]. Liquid Cooling Sector - Invec reported a revenue of 2.573 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 50.3%, driven by strong demand for liquid cooling solutions [12][52]. - The establishment of the UQD alliance aims to enhance the reliability and interchangeability of liquid cooling connectors, reducing operational complexity [12].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The market has underestimated the explosive potential of innovative connection solutions in optical communication, particularly with the increasing demand for MPO and shuffle box in complex interconnections [1][21] - The transition from 400G to higher speeds like 800G and 1.6T in optical modules is becoming a consensus, creating new opportunities for passive connection devices [3][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-density, high-speed, and low-power solutions in the context of growing computing clusters, which will drive innovation in passive products [24] Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - Focus on the undervalued high-speed optical interconnect sector, recommending "Two Big and Four Small" companies: Tianfu Communication, Sanhuan Group, and smaller firms like Taicheng Light, Shijia Photon, Bochuang Technology, and Zhishang Technology [7][13][24] Market Review - The communication sector has seen an increase, with the blockchain segment performing the best [18][19] - The report notes significant stock movements, with Guomai Technology leading the sector with a 46.586% increase [20] Weekly Topic - The upcoming GTC and OFC events are expected to highlight new technologies in optical communication, with a focus on the demand for more compact and efficient solutions [1][21] Key Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring developments in optical modules and passive connection devices, as these areas are poised for growth due to technological advancements and market demand [24][26]