证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 10 月 26 日 [Table_Title] 长城汽车 2025 年三季度点评：产品结构持续 优化，新车周期表现强势 [Table_Title2] 长城汽车(601633) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 601633 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 29.45/20.6 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 1,984.57 | | 最新收盘价： | 23.19 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 1,984.57 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 8,557.87 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司近日发布 2025 年第三季度报告，2025 年三季度实现营收 612.47 亿元，同比+20.51%；归母 净利润 22.98 亿元，同比-31.23%。2025 年前三季度，公司实现营收 1535.82 亿元，同比 +7.96%；归母净利润 86.35 亿元，同比-16.97%。 ► 1、 ...

Macro Strategy - The report indicates that the supply and demand for direct financing markets, such as Sci-tech bonds, are expected to continue expanding, supported by structural policy tools [1][9][10] - Recent US economic data shows marginal improvement, with consumer confidence and retail sales exceeding expectations, leading to a rise in US stocks [1][10] - The US 10-year Treasury yield increased by 0.62bps to 4.416% over the week, influenced by mixed economic signals and dovish comments from Fed officials [1][11] Fixed Income - The bond yields slightly decreased this week, recovering from the previous week's rise due to restrictions on bond purchases by rural commercial banks, but the "stock-bond seesaw" effect limits the downward space for yields [2][14] - The report highlights concerns regarding the convertible bond market, including a potential reduction in net supply and the impact of profit-taking by insurance and wealth management products [2][17] Company Analysis - UBTECH Robotics has secured the largest procurement order for humanoid robots, accelerating its commercialization process. Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 2.016 billion, 2.823 billion, and 3.705 billion yuan, respectively, with a "buy" rating maintained [5] - Jingcheng Machinery has laid the foundation for a new production base for 600,000 pieces of 8-inch silicon carbide substrates, enhancing its competitive edge in the market. The company aims to benefit from the transition to 8-inch substrates, which can reduce costs significantly [5][6] - Great Wall Motors reported H1 2025 results that met expectations, with revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 at 219.5 billion, 237.6 billion, and 253.8 billion yuan, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [7] - Tuojing Technology anticipates significant growth in Q2 2025, with revenue expected to be between 1.21 billion and 1.26 billion yuan, driven by new product contributions and improved gross margins [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its H1 2025 performance, which met expectations, with revenue of 92.367 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.03%, and a net profit of 6.337 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.22% [2] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 92.367 billion yuan, up 1.03% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.337 billion yuan, down 10.22% year-on-year. The second quarter saw revenue of 52.348 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.8% and a year-on-year increase of 30.8%. The net profit for Q2 was 4.586 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.1% and a year-on-year increase of 161.9% [2][6] Sales and Product Structure - The company reported a wholesale sales volume of 313,000 vehicles in Q2, with year-on-year increases of 10.07% and 21.87%. The sales breakdown by brand showed significant growth for the Wei brand, which increased by 106.4% year-on-year. The company also achieved a Q2 sales volume of 98,000 new energy vehicles, with a penetration rate of 31.3% [3] Strategic Focus - The company is committed to long-term strategies focusing on three main areas: smart technology, off-road capabilities, and global expansion. It is enhancing its smart technology with the Coffee Pilot system and has achieved recognition in global markets, ranking among the top 20 in China's global brand list for 2025 [4] Future Projections - The company maintains revenue forecasts of 219.5 billion yuan, 237.6 billion yuan, and 253.8 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.6%, 8.3%, and 6.8%. The net profit forecasts for the same years are 12.3 billion yuan, 13.9 billion yuan, and 14.4 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 1.43, 1.62, and 1.68 yuan [6]