证 券 研 究 报 告 [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 64,732 | 110,305 | 135,318 | 138,863 | | 同比增速(%) | 101.3% | 70.4% | 22.7% | 2.6% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 538 | 5,140 | 7,520 | 8,522 | | 同比增速(%) | 119.1% | 854.7% | 46.3% | 13.3% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.38 | 3.62 | 5.29 | 5.99 | | 市盈率(倍) | 105 | 11 | 8 | 7 | | 市净率(倍) | 4.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 零跑汽车（09863.HK）2025 年四季报点评 强推（维持） 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 3 月 23 日收盘价 港股公司 乘用车Ⅲ 2026 年 03 月 24 日 ...

Summary of Leap Motor's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Leap Motor - **Industry**: Electric Vehicles (EV) Key Points and Arguments Sales and Revenue Guidance - Leap Motor raised its 2025 sales guidance to 580,000 to 650,000 units, with a target of reaching 1 million units in 2026 [2][3] - Expected revenue for 2025 is over 60 billion yuan, corresponding to the sales volume, with a net profit of 940 million yuan [2][7] - The company achieved sales of 222,000 units in the first half of 2025, with Q1 sales at 88,000 units (up 162% year-on-year) and Q2 sales at 134,000 units (up 53% quarter-on-quarter) [3] Product Line Expansion - In 2025, Leap Motor plans to launch multiple new B-class models, including B01, B10, and B05 [4] - The introduction of A-series (small cars under 100,000 yuan) and D-series (high-end SUVs under 200,000 yuan) is expected to enhance product line coverage [2][4][5] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 10 billion yuan, and Q2 revenue was 14.2 billion yuan, with average vehicle prices of 114,000 yuan and 106,000 yuan respectively [6] - Despite a slight decline in gross margin due to price adjustments (Q1: 14.9%, Q2: 13.6%), the company managed to turn a profit through strict cost control [6][7] Profitability Outlook - The company anticipates maintaining a gross margin of 14-15% for the entire year of 2025, with a projected net profit of 940 million yuan [7][9] - For 2026, the revenue is expected to reach around 100 billion yuan, with net profit estimates between 4.4 billion to 5 billion yuan [8][9] Market Positioning and Competitive Strategy - Leap Motor successfully transitioned from low-end models to the mid-high-end market with the launch of the C11 SUV, which sold 70,000 units in its first year [10] - The company capitalizes on market opportunities in small electric vehicles and range-extended electric vehicles, enhancing its competitive edge [10] Cost Control and Efficiency - Leap Motor demonstrates high execution efficiency and cost control through in-house development and a multi-supplier strategy [12] - The company has a strong capability for self-research and platform-based development, allowing for cost-effective component production [12][16] International Expansion - Leap Motor established a joint venture with Scania to form Leap International, facilitating product exports and leveraging Scania's global channels [4][13] - The company is optimistic about its performance in the European market, aligning well with local consumer habits [14] Carbon Credit Revenue - The company expects to generate approximately 1.5 billion yuan from carbon credits in 2025, primarily through collaboration with Stellantis [4][15] Future Projections - Leap Motor aims to achieve sales of over 1 million units by 2026, with significant contributions from the A-series and D-series models [8][17] - The company is positioned to maintain strong growth and profitability, with a focus on expanding its market share in the competitive EV landscape [18][19]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 24.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 174.17% [1] - The company recorded a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.033 billion yuan, marking the first time it achieved a positive net profit in a half-year period [1] - The gross margin reached a historical high of 14.13%, up 13 percentage points year-on-year, driven by model transitions, cost reduction efforts, and deepened strategic partnerships [1] Group 2: Sales and Market Expansion - In Q2 2025, the company sold 134,100 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 151.68%, with C series and B series models accounting for 57.61% and 24.35% of sales, respectively [1] - The sales service network expanded to cover 286 cities, adding 88 cities compared to the same period last year, with a total of 806 sales outlets and 461 service outlets [1] - The company plans to launch the small hatchback model B05 in the second half of 2025 and introduce A/D series models in 2026, indicating continued sales growth [1] Group 3: International Strategy - From January to July 2025, the company ranked first in export sales among new energy vehicle brands in China, with cumulative sales of 25,000 vehicles [2] - The company is set to launch the B series global model B10 overseas in September, enhancing its international product offerings [2] - A local assembly project for the C10 model is planned in Malaysia by the end of 2025, with expectations for localized manufacturing in Europe by 2026 [2] Group 4: Investment Outlook - Due to significant improvements in core operating metrics, continuous gross margin growth, and effective cost reduction, the company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 65.21 billion, 101.83 billion, and 125.05 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 0.616 billion, 5.665 billion, and 7.788 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.46, 4.24, and 5.83 yuan [3] - Based on current operational trends and performance expectations, the company has received a "recommended" rating [3]