公司点评 | 零跑汽车 25 全年业绩符合预期，26 年冲击销量百万目标 证券研究报告 2026 年 03 月 24 日 零跑汽车（09863.HK）2025 年报点评 事件：公司 25Q4 净利润 3.6 亿元，营收 210.3 亿，Q4 毛利率 15%，其中整 车毛利率约 12%，首次全年盈利。25 年全年营收 647.3 亿元，同比翻倍，主 要是受新车上市拉动。全年 Non-GAAP 净利 10.8 亿元，同比+34.3 亿元。 公司处于新品周期，将全面覆盖 10-30 万元价格带，有望驱动销量持续突破。 公司新车型发布节奏明确，A10 将于 3 月底正式上市；D 平台首发车型 D19 预计于 4 月启动销售；A05 与 D99 则计划在 6 月中下旬至 7 月初推向市场。 我们认为，这四款新车上市后将构成完整的 ABCD 品牌矩阵，公司将全面覆 盖 10-30 万元的价格区间。预计 26 年存量车型与新增车型销量占比为 6:4。 海外渠道持续布局，产品加速出口海外。1）渠道方面，公司 2025 年出口量 为新势力第一，超 6.7 万辆。2026 年欧洲网点将超 800 家，南美、亚太渠道 将大幅增加。 ...

2025 年度扭亏为盈，看好 A 系列和 D 系列新车 零跑汽车实现全年盈利。零跑汽车 25Q4 实现 20.1 万销量，同比增长 66%，带动 收入实现 210 亿元，同比增长 56.1%。2025 年全年实现 59.7 万销量，连续两年 销量翻倍，收入同比翻倍至 647 亿元。2025 年全年汽车收入/服务及其他销售收 入分别为 620.1/27.2 亿元，服务及其他收入大幅增长主要是由于海外整车销量大 幅增长，带动相关碳积分交易收入增加，其绝对值大约为 10 亿元左右。25Q4 综 合毛利率达到 15%，其中汽车毛利率大约 12%；2025 年全年毛利率提升 6.1pct 至 14.5%，主要是由于持续的成本管理、产品组合的优化、其他业务收入。由于 品牌力的建设和营销活动的增加，Q4 销售费用明显增加，Q4 公司归母净利润实 现 2.3 亿元，同比增长 177%。2025 年全年归母净利润实现 5.4 亿元，首次实现 年度的扭亏为盈，也使得零跑成为第二家实现年度盈利的中国新势力车企；调整 后归母净利润 10.8 亿元。 展望 2026 年，公司维持 100 万销量、50 亿利润的指引。2025 年公司销 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor, with a target price of HKD 72, corresponding to a valuation of HKD 1,030 billion, based on 18x 2026e P/E and 0.8x 2026e P/S [4][6]. Core Insights - Leap Motor is expected to achieve profitability in 2025, with a projected sales volume of 597,000 units, doubling sales for two consecutive years, and revenue reaching HKD 64.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 56.1% [1][2]. - The company plans to launch four new models in 2026, including the A10 and D19, to sustain strong sales growth [2]. - Leap Motor's overseas market expansion is progressing steadily, with 67,000 units exported in 2025, leading the Chinese new energy vehicle sector [3]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, Leap Motor achieved a net profit of HKD 230 million, a year-on-year increase of 177%, and a full-year net profit of HKD 540 million, marking its first annual profit [1]. - The gross margin for 2025 improved by 6.1 percentage points to 14.5%, driven by cost management and product mix optimization [1]. - The company anticipates a revenue of HKD 112.6 billion in 2026, with a net profit of HKD 5 billion, and aims for a profit target of HKD 5 billion for 2026 [2][4]. Sales and Market Strategy - Leap Motor's sales network covers 295 cities with 950 sales stores and 526 service centers, aiming to enhance channel quality through investor programs [2]. - The company is focusing on local production in Spain, with plans to start production of the B10 model in October 2026 [3]. - The sales volume forecast for 2026-2028 is 1 million, 1.42 million, and 1.61 million units, respectively, with corresponding revenues of HKD 1,126 billion, HKD 1,618 billion, and HKD 1,772 billion [4].

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨零跑汽车（09863.HK） [Table_Title] 零跑汽车点评：1-2 月销量超 6.0 万辆，期待后 续 A&D 系列新车上市 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 零跑汽车 2 月交付 28,067 辆，同比增长 11.0%，环比下降 12.5%。展望未来，公司国内新车 周期带来销量持续增长，海外与 Stellantis 合作实现轻资产出海，打开全球销量空间。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524070004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 零跑汽车（09863.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 零跑汽车点评：2] 1-2 月销量超 6.0 万辆，期待后 续 A&D 系列新车上市 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 零跑汽车 2 月交付 28,067 辆，同比增长 11.0%，环比下降 12.5%。 事件评论 丨证券研究 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the remarkable turnaround of Leap Motor under the leadership of founder Zhu Jiangming, who has successfully navigated the company through significant challenges to become the sales champion among new energy vehicle manufacturers by 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Leap Motor achieved cumulative deliveries of nearly 600,000 vehicles in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 103%, surpassing competitors like Hongmeng Zhixing, Xiaopeng, Xiaomi, and Li Auto [3]. - The company recorded its first half-year profit in 2025, with a net profit of 30 million yuan, making it the second new energy vehicle manufacturer to achieve this milestone [3]. - Leap Motor's stock price experienced volatility, peaking at 76.3 HKD in August 2025 before declining to 45.28 HKD by February 2026, resulting in a market capitalization reduction to 64.4 billion HKD [7]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Zhu Jiangming emphasizes cost control and has personally participated in procurement decisions exceeding 2 million yuan, reflecting a frugal approach to business operations [3][4]. - The company adopted a "half-price ideal" strategy, offering vehicles with features comparable to those priced at 400,000 yuan for under 200,000 yuan, which has been pivotal in its market positioning [4][5]. - Leap Motor has established a strong foothold in the international market, exporting 60,000 vehicles in 2025, aided by a strategic partnership with Stellantis, which invested 1.5 billion euros in the company [6]. Group 3: Future Challenges - Leap Motor aims to transition from being perceived as a "new force" to a "world-class automaker," setting ambitious sales targets of over 4 million vehicles annually, with 2026 being a critical year for achieving the "million vehicle" milestone [9][10]. - The company faces increasing competition and market pressures, particularly in the high-end vehicle segment, where it plans to launch new models priced around 300,000 yuan [10]. - Recent challenges faced by competitors, such as Li Auto's significant drop in sales and profitability, highlight the fragile nature of profitability in the new energy vehicle sector, necessitating careful navigation of growth and market positioning for Leap Motor [10].

Core Insights - Stellantis, the world's fourth-largest automaker, is facing financial and stock price challenges due to a misjudgment in its electrification strategy, leading to a €22 billion restructuring charge in the second half of 2025 and a significant stock price drop of over 20% in one day, resulting in a market value loss of over $6 billion [1][3] Group 1: Financial Impact - The restructuring charge of approximately €22.2 billion includes around €6.5 billion in cash payments expected over the next four years, with a projected net loss of €21 billion for the second half of 2025 and a low single-digit operating profit margin for the year [2][3] - The company will not pay a dividend in 2026 due to the anticipated net loss for 2025, and it has authorized the issuance of up to €5 billion in non-convertible subordinated perpetual hybrid bonds to maintain a strong balance sheet [2] Group 2: Strategic Shift - Stellantis is scaling back its electric vehicle (EV) ambitions, exiting joint ventures like NextStar Energy with LG Energy in Canada, and focusing on a more market-driven approach to electrification rather than aggressive targets [4][5] - The company plans to deepen local R&D in China and view the Chinese market as a critical accelerator for its electrification goals, recognizing the significant potential in this market [1][8] Group 3: Market Position and Challenges - Stellantis has been marginalized in the Chinese market, with brands like Jeep and Maserati struggling to maintain sales, and the company is facing internal competition among its various brands [6][7] - The company is attempting to strengthen its position in China through strategic investments, such as a €1.5 billion stake in Leap Motor and a partnership with Pony.ai for autonomous vehicle development [5][6] - Analysts highlight that Stellantis's slow response to market changes and reliance on outdated strategies have hindered its competitiveness, particularly in the rapidly evolving Chinese automotive landscape [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ambitious goals of Leap Motor, aiming to achieve annual sales of 4 million vehicles in the next decade and establish itself as a world-class automotive company [1][11]. Group 1: Leap Motor's Journey - Leap Motor was founded by Zhu Jiangming, who was nearly fifty at the time, making him the oldest founder among new car-making forces [2][3]. - The company set a lofty goal to become a world-class smart electric vehicle manufacturer shortly after its establishment in 2015 [4]. - Despite initial struggles, including low sales of its first models, Leap Motor has grown to nearly 600,000 annual sales and over 1 million cumulative deliveries [5][7]. - The company celebrated its tenth anniversary with a mindset of starting anew, as indicated by the book titled "Starting with the End" distributed at the event [5][11]. Group 2: Sales and Product Strategy - Leap Motor's sales strategy has focused on offering high-value vehicles, with the C series SUVs accounting for over 70% of sales [9][10]. - The company has successfully positioned itself as a "half-price Li Auto," leveraging competitive pricing and features to attract consumers [10]. - Leap Motor has achieved significant cost reductions through self-research and development, with over 65% of core components produced in-house, leading to a 10% cost reduction compared to outsourcing [10][11]. Group 3: Future Goals and Challenges - Zhu Jiangming has set a pragmatic target of reaching 1 million sales next year and 4 million in the next decade, emphasizing the need for Leap Motor to evolve beyond being labeled as a "new force" [11][12]. - The company plans to collaborate with FAW to enhance its manufacturing capabilities and fill gaps in traditional automotive expertise [14]. - Leap Motor is launching high-end models, including the D19 SUV and D99 MPV, to diversify its product offerings and target the premium market [15][16]. Group 4: Channel Strategy and Market Positioning - Leap Motor's initial rapid expansion through small dealers has led to challenges in maintaining brand standards and service quality, necessitating a shift towards larger, more capable dealers [18][21]. - The company has faced difficulties with its direct sales model, which has resulted in significant losses, prompting a reevaluation of its dealership strategy [20][21]. - Leap Motor aims to refine its dealer network by assessing dealer capabilities and potentially closing underperforming locations [20][21]. Group 5: Comparison with BYD - Leap Motor aspires to emulate BYD's success, which achieved sales of 4.27 million vehicles in 2024, highlighting the need for Leap Motor to enhance its self-research capabilities and market presence [23][27]. - Both companies share a focus on cost control and supply chain efficiency, with Leap Motor currently achieving 65% self-research compared to BYD's 75% [25][26]. - Leap Motor's international sales strategy is still developing, with a reliance on Stellantis for overseas distribution, which may limit brand visibility and service consistency [28][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company aims to become a world-class automotive enterprise, targeting sales of 1 million units in 2026 and 4 million units in the long term [4][5] - The company has established a comprehensive self-research and platform-based manufacturing system, achieving a sales volume of approximately 597,000 units in 2025, marking a significant improvement in its fundamentals [2][3] - The strategic investment from FAW Group, acquiring approximately 5% equity for about HKD 3.74 billion, highlights the recognition of the company's long-term strategy [3] Sales and Financial Projections - The company expects to achieve sales of 600,000, 1,040,000, and 1,420,000 units in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding revenues of RMB 68.3 billion, RMB 123.5 billion, and RMB 168.8 billion [5][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be RMB 6.6 million, RMB 51.1 million, and RMB 82.5 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][11] Strategic Developments - The company has signed a powertrain cooperation agreement with FAW, focusing on the joint development of range-extended and plug-in hybrid vehicles, with the first model expected to be mass-produced in 2026 [3] - The D-series models, including D19 and D99, are set to launch in 2026, enhancing the company's high-end product lineup [3][4] Market Expansion - The company plans to leverage Stellantis' distribution channels to export over 60,000 vehicles in 2025, entering 35 countries with more than 800 overseas stores [2][4] - The strategic cooperation with FAW and Stellantis is expected to drive growth and profitability during the upcoming new vehicle cycle [4]

Core Viewpoint - Leap Motor has achieved significant milestones in 2023, including surpassing its annual sales target of 500,000 units and expanding its product line with the new A and D series, targeting price ranges from 60,000 to 300,000 yuan [1][4][7]. Group 1: Strategic Partnerships and Investments - Leap Motor has entered a strategic partnership with FAW Group, which will invest 3.744 billion yuan to acquire a 5% stake in the company, marking the first investment by a state-owned enterprise in a new energy vehicle startup [4][6]. - The collaboration will involve joint research and development of hybrid and extended-range powertrains, enhancing Leap Motor's technological capabilities and resource sharing [4][6]. Group 2: Growth and Future Goals - Leap Motor aims to double its sales to 1 million units by 2026 and establish itself as a world-class smart electric vehicle manufacturer, aspiring to rank among the top 10 globally [7][8]. - The company has set ambitious sales targets, with expectations of significant contributions from its new A series and continued success from its B and C series models [62][70]. Group 3: Historical Context and Development - Leap Motor's journey began in 2015, with founder Zhu Jiangming leveraging his experience from the security industry to enter the automotive sector, driven by the belief that China could achieve breakthroughs in electric vehicles [15][18]. - The company faced early challenges, including low sales of its first model, the S01, which sold only 1,086 units in 2019, and a critical cash shortage in 2020 [22][24]. Group 4: Technological Advancements and Competitive Edge - Leap Motor has focused on developing its own technologies, such as the CTC battery integration and advanced driving assistance systems, which have become key competitive advantages [37][44]. - The company has established a robust in-house manufacturing system, producing 65% of its vehicle components internally, with plans to increase this to 80% [44][46]. Group 5: Market Position and Global Expansion - In 2023, Leap Motor delivered over 500,000 vehicles in China, with expectations for its new A series to drive further growth [62][63]. - The company has partnered with Stellantis, which holds an 18.99% stake, to facilitate its entry into international markets, with plans for local production in Malaysia and Europe [67][70].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - Leap Motor plans to issue 74.832 million domestic shares to FAW at a price of HKD 50.03 per share, totaling HKD 3.744 billion. Approximately 50% of the funds will be allocated for R&D, 25% for operational capital, and 25% for expanding sales and service networks [2][4][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from a strong domestic new car cycle, driving continuous sales growth, while its partnership with Stellantis will facilitate a light-asset overseas expansion, enhancing global sales potential [4][6]. - The projected net profits for Leap Motor from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at CNY 6.3 billion, CNY 5.0 billion, and CNY 8.37 billion, with corresponding P/E ratios of 102.5X, 13.0X, and 7.7X [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Domestic Market - The company leverages its technological foundation to create a strong price-performance ratio, which is expected to enhance sales during the ongoing new car cycle. Scale effects and product structure optimization are anticipated to improve profitability [4][6]. Overseas Market - The collaboration with Stellantis, the fourth-largest automotive group globally, allows Leap Motor to utilize Stellantis's extensive sales and after-sales network and production capacity for a rapid and flexible overseas expansion. This partnership is expected to yield significant profit contributions from high single-vehicle profitability [4][6]. Product Development and Sales Network - Leap Motor plans to launch 2-3 new products globally each year over the next three years, with several models already introduced in 2025. The company has established a robust domestic sales network with 866 sales outlets across 292 cities and has expanded its international presence with over 700 sales and service points in approximately 30 international markets [6].