光刻机龙头创历史新高。 受一系列利好消息刺激，全球光刻机龙头 阿斯麦 （ASML）股价持续拉升，创出历史新高，截至周五收盘， 其股价本周累计涨幅超6%，总市值突破5200亿美元大关。 摩根士丹利在最新发布的报告中指出，随着阿斯麦最大客户——台积电给出的人工智能（AI）相关开支指引 大超预期，叠加存储芯片领域的大规模产能扩张，阿斯麦正站在史上最强盈利周期的起点。 在最乐观情形 下，阿斯麦股价有望进一步上涨70%。 阿斯麦即将迎来"巅峰时刻" 美东时间1月16日，美股开盘后，阿斯麦股价继续走高，美股盘中一度大涨超3%，截至收盘，涨幅达2.03%， 总市值升至5263 亿 美元（约合人民币36673亿元），成为历史上第三只市值突破5200亿美元的欧洲股票。 美股三大指数集体收跌，纳指跌0.06%，道指跌0.17%，标普500指数跌0.06%。芯片股普涨，费城半导 体指数涨1.15%。 有分析指出，台积电资本支出大幅提升成为阿斯麦股价飙涨的关键催化剂。 台积电在2025年第四季度财报发布会上给出的2026年资本支出指引为520亿—560亿美元，中值同比增长32%， 高于2025年的409亿美元。台积电还暗示未来几年资 ...

美东时间1月16日，美股开盘后，阿斯麦股价继续走高，美股盘中一度大涨超3%，截至收盘，涨幅达2.03%， 总市值升至5263 亿 美元（约合人民币36673亿元），成为历史上第三只市值突破5200亿美元的欧洲股票。 美股三大指数集体收跌，纳指跌0.06%，道指跌0.17%，标普500指数跌0.06%。芯片股普涨，费城半导 体指数涨1.15%。 光刻机龙头创历史新高。 受一系列利好消息刺激，全球光刻机龙头阿斯麦（ASML）股价持续拉升，创出历史新高，截至周五收盘，其 股价本周累计涨幅超6%，总市值突破5200亿美元大关。 摩根士丹利在最新发布的报告中指出，随着阿斯麦最大客户——台积电给出的人工智能（AI）相关开支指引 大超预期，叠加存储芯片领域的大规模产能扩张，阿斯麦正站在史上最强盈利周期的起点。 在最乐观情形 下，阿斯麦股价有望进一步上涨70%。 阿斯麦即将迎来"巅峰时刻" 有分析指出，台积电资本支出大幅提升成为阿斯麦股价飙涨的关键催化剂。 摩根士丹利半导体团队在最新发布的财报中指出，随着AI浪潮推动先进制程和存储芯片的产能扩张，阿斯麦 正站在史上最强盈利周期的起点。 基于台积电的资本支出指引，摩根士丹利将台 ...

| 硬·AI | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 作者 | 董 | 静 | | 编辑 | 硬 | AI | | 摩根士丹利称，随着AI浪潮推动先进制程和存储芯片的产能扩张，阿斯麦正站在史上最强盈利周期的起点。 | | | 1月16日，大摩发布重磅研报，核心观点非常直接：2027年将是阿斯麦盈利增长的巅峰之年，预计阿斯麦2027财年销售额将达到约468亿欧元，EBIT将达到 197亿欧元，毛利率提升至56.2%。 预计2027年每股收益45.74欧元，较此前预期的33.94欧元上调35%，相比2026年预期的29.12欧元实现57%的同比增长。 这将是公司有史以来最高的年度盈利增速。 台积电资本支出大幅提升成为关键催化剂。 研报称，这一盈利爆发主要由三大引擎驱动： 先进逻辑代工厂的强劲需求、DRAM内存领域的大规模产能扩张，以及需求表现好于预期 。该行对阿斯麦发出 了极其强烈的看涨信号，将其目标价从1000欧元大幅上调至1400欧元，并维持"增持"（Overweight）评级及"首选股"（Top Pick）地位。 研报称，台积电在4季度业绩发布会上给出2026年资本支出指引为520-560亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley states that ASML is at the beginning of its strongest profit cycle ever, driven by the AI wave pushing advanced process and memory chip capacity expansion, with 2027 expected to be a peak year for profit growth [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Projections - ASML's sales for the fiscal year 2027 are projected to reach approximately €46.8 billion, with EBIT expected to hit €19.7 billion and a gross margin increase to 56.2% [1][15]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2027 is €45.74, a 35% increase from the previous estimate of €33.94, and a 57% year-over-year growth compared to the anticipated €29.12 for 2026 [1][15]. - Morgan Stanley has raised ASML's target price from €1,000 to €1,400, maintaining an "Overweight" rating and "Top Pick" status [3]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The profit surge is primarily driven by strong demand from advanced logic foundries, significant capacity expansion in the DRAM memory sector, and better-than-expected demand performance [3][13]. - TSMC's capital expenditure guidance for 2026 is set at $52-56 billion, a 32% year-over-year increase, with 70-80% allocated to advanced processes, which is a key catalyst for ASML [5]. - TSMC's EUV tool procurement expectations for 2026 have been raised from approximately 20 to 29 units, and for 2027 from 28 to 40 units [5][7]. Group 3: DRAM Market Dynamics - The DRAM market is experiencing unprecedented demand, with strong price momentum driven by regular server CPU demand and large cloud service providers' AI needs for 2026-27 [8][10]. - The scarcity of capacity has led to record price increases for HBM and general DRAM, which is expected to last for at least 1-2 quarters, prompting large-scale capacity construction in the DRAM manufacturing sector [10][11]. Group 4: Upcoming Financial Results - ASML is set to release its Q4 financial results on January 28, 2026, with expected orders of €7.27 billion, significantly higher than €5.4 billion in Q3, including 19 EUV low-NA tools [14]. - The anticipated sales for Q4 are €9.675 billion, at the high end of the guidance range, with a year-over-year growth of 4% [14]. - The gross margin for Q4 is expected to be 51.8%, close to the guidance midpoint, with a sequential increase of 20 basis points [14].