2007年，苹果公司推出iPhone，拉开了智能手机和移动互联时代的序幕。英特尔原本有机会成为苹果手 机的处理器供应商，但当时的公司高层认为智能手机市场规模有限，利润率不如个人计算机业务，遂放 弃了这次机会。结果，苹果转向ARM架构，并最终推出自研芯片，不但自身成长为全球巨头，也改变 了整个产业格局。英特尔却因困守在个人计算机的旧世界，错失了智能市场宝贵的窗口期，之后再也无 力踏入其中。 近年来，人工智能浪潮席卷全球，人们津津乐道于英伟达在业务布局上的前瞻性。但许多人不知道的 是，英特尔早在20多年前也曾推出i740显卡，试图在新兴的GPU（图形处理器）市场分一杯羹，只是很 快这款产品就因竞争力不足退出了市场。 不过，真正致命的不是产品的失败，而是英特尔管理层对时代风口的误判。当英伟达凭借出色的图形处 理能力迅速占领游戏市场时，英特尔却对此不屑一顾。他们把图形渲染业务视作鸡肋，没有看到图形与 并行计算在更广阔领域的巨大潜力，以至于对在这一领域的竞争失利缺乏重视，更谈不上奋起直追，最 终错失在人工智能浪潮中卡位的机会。 在芯片制造领域，英特尔同样作出了错误选择。光刻机是半导体制造的核心设备，荷兰阿斯麦公司的极 ...

Core Viewpoint - ASML warns that uncertainties from US tariff policies may hinder its growth prospects for 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - ASML reported a second-quarter sales figure of €7.7 billion, exceeding market expectations of €7.54 billion [1] - The company has adjusted its full-year net sales growth forecast for 2025 to 15%, down from a previous estimate of €30 billion to €35 billion [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The CEO of ASML, Peter Wennink, noted increasing uncertainties from macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, making it difficult to confirm growth for 2026 [1] - The recent US tariff announcement, which includes a 30% tariff on EU imports starting August 1, has heightened uncertainty for ASML's sales to US clients [1] Group 3: Client Impact - Major clients like Intel and TSMC are experiencing performance impacts due to US export restrictions and tariffs, leading to delayed purchases [2] - ASML's CFO, Roger Dassen, indicated that clients are waiting for clearer guidance on tariffs and export controls before making purchasing decisions [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the downward adjustment in profit outlook, ASML sees strong demand from AI sector clients for 2026 [2] - There are signs of potential easing in US-China relations, which could benefit ASML if restrictions on sales to China are lifted [2][3] Group 5: Regulatory Environment - The US regulatory environment remains volatile, with an ongoing "Section 232 investigation" that could lead to additional tariffs on the semiconductor industry [3] - ASML has faced restrictions on selling advanced chip manufacturing tools to China, impacting its market potential in that region [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union's (EU) goal to capture 20% of the global semiconductor market by 2030 appears highly unlikely, with current projections estimating only an increase from 9.8% in 2022 to 11.7% by 2030, far below the target [3][4]. Group 1: Current Status and Challenges - The EU's semiconductor industry is currently dominated by a few large companies, which poses risks as delays or failures in individual projects can disproportionately affect the entire sector [4]. - The EU's Chip Act, while ambitious, is not expected to significantly enhance the EU's global market share in semiconductors, as the funding and strategic implementation are insufficient [4][5]. - External challenges such as reliance on imported raw materials, high energy prices, environmental issues, geopolitical instability, and a shortage of skilled labor further complicate the EU's semiconductor ambitions [4][5]. Group 2: Recommendations and Strategic Actions - The European Court of Auditors (ECA) recommends that the EU Commission reassess the Chip Act's goals in light of current resources and global competition, and establish a new semiconductor strategy with clear, achievable targets [5][6]. - The EU should learn from Japan's approach to maintaining strategic industries and consider a more cohesive industrial strategy that emphasizes the importance of semiconductors in economic security [7][8]. - A "Semiconductor Alliance" has been initiated by nine EU member states to enhance competitiveness and strategic autonomy in the semiconductor sector, aiming for better collaboration with the EU Commission [9][10]. Group 3: Future Directions - The EU's semiconductor strategy should focus on leveraging existing strengths, such as the dominance of companies like ASML in critical manufacturing technologies, to navigate the competitive landscape shaped by US-China tensions [7][12]. - Emphasizing the relationship between semiconductors and national defense could influence future budget negotiations within the EU, especially as member states increase defense spending [11][12]. - The EU must adopt a proactive stance rather than a defensive one, ensuring it remains a key player in semiconductor negotiations rather than being sidelined by larger powers [12].

Core Viewpoint - ASML is expanding its workforce in Japan to enhance its EUV technology capabilities, reflecting confidence in the Japanese semiconductor market and supporting local industry advancements [1][2]. Group 1: ASML's Expansion Plans - ASML plans to increase its advanced EUV machine workforce in Japan by five times, indicating a strategic move to meet the growing global demand for high-performance chips [1]. - By 2027, ASML aims to expand its maintenance staff in Japan to 100 personnel to support the increasing number of EUV devices [2]. Group 2: Impact on Japanese Semiconductor Industry - The expansion of ASML's operations is expected to aid in the technological upgrade and talent development of Japan's semiconductor industry [1]. - Japanese semiconductor company Rapidus is set to begin trial production of 2nm technology this month, with a goal of full-scale production by 2027, aligning with ASML's efforts [1]. Group 3: Operational Considerations - Chip manufacturing involves numerous processes, and any downtime during the photolithography stage can lead to significant opportunity losses, estimated by ASML to be thousands of dollars per minute [2]. - ASML's maintenance teams will need to be stationed near client factories to ensure rapid response to any equipment issues [2].