Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in July, influenced by moderate inflation pressures and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between the U.S. and Iran [5][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman expressed support for a potential interest rate cut in July if inflation remains subdued, indicating a shift in focus towards labor market conditions [5]. - Bowman's comments align with those of another Fed official, suggesting a consensus on the need for a policy adjustment due to reduced uncertainty [5][6]. - Current market expectations indicate a 23% probability of a rate cut in July and a 78% chance in September, reflecting traders' sentiments on future monetary policy [6]. Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - Iran is reportedly planning to retaliate against U.S. military facilities following airstrikes on its nuclear sites, raising concerns about regional stability [8]. - Qatar has temporarily closed its airspace for safety reasons amid escalating tensions, affecting flights and prompting advisories for U.S. citizens in the region [9]. - The U.S. military presence in Qatar, including approximately 9,000 troops, underscores the strategic importance of the region amidst these developments [9]. Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices have declined as market fears regarding immediate disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies have eased, following President Trump's call to keep oil prices low [11]. - Analysts note that while geopolitical risks are rising, the global oil supply remains sufficient, mitigating panic among investors [11][12]. - The potential for Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz is viewed as unlikely due to its own reliance on this route for oil exports and the military presence of the U.S. and allies in the region [12].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials are not eager to lower the benchmark interest rate due to concerns over the prolonged impact of tariffs on consumer prices and employment growth, which could hinder the Fed's dual mandate of controlling inflation and maintaining high employment levels [1][4][6]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Economists predict that the tariffs implemented by the Trump administration, effective from April, will lead to higher consumer prices and potentially hinder job growth, complicating the Fed's ability to manage inflation and employment [1][3]. - The FedWatch tool indicates a 51% probability that the Fed will lower the benchmark interest rate in July, with markets pricing in three potential rate cuts of 25 basis points this year [1][2]. Group 2: Inflation Concerns - St. Louis Fed President Bullard emphasized the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs' impact on inflation, suggesting that the Fed should not commit to further rate cuts until the effects are clearer [3][6]. - New York Fed President Williams highlighted the importance of maintaining stable inflation expectations to ensure public confidence in the Fed's ability to return inflation to the 2% target [3][4]. Group 3: Trade Policy Implications - Fed Governor Cook warned that the uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policies could suppress U.S. productivity and necessitate higher interest rates to combat inflation stemming from inefficiencies [5][6]. - Cleveland Fed President Mester noted that the Fed requires more time to observe the economic response to tariffs before determining appropriate policy measures, acknowledging the current resilience of the U.S. economy [6][7]. Group 4: Employment and Economic Growth - Despite a low unemployment rate of 4.2%, Fed officials recognize risks to the labor market as businesses assess the implications of new tariffs [6][7]. - Fed officials agree that the current economic conditions warrant maintaining the policy interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% until the effects of government policy decisions are clearer [4][7].

年初至今，美债收益率持续下滑，美债市场迎来一波牛市行情。然而，在4月8日特朗普政府宣布加征关税 后，美债遭遇抛售，收益率在4月中旬一度大幅上扬。 短期来看，由于美联储担忧关税会推高通胀，因此5月降息的可能性较小，短端美债收益率或维持在 3.6%~4%区间；而长端美债收益率大概率会随着美国经济衰退而走低，不过"去美元化"的趋势使得长端美 债收益率下行的道路不会平坦顺畅。 特朗普关税政策冲击美国经济 受关税政策实施前进口激增以及消费支出乏力的双重影响，2025年一季度，美国实际GDP（经通胀调整 后）环比下滑0.3%，这是2022年以来其首次出现收缩，此现象标志着特朗普关税政策所引发的连锁反应已 初步显现。 具体来看，美国一季度GDP环比增速未能达到预期的-0.2%，较前值2.4%大幅回落，且远低于前两年约3% 的平均增长率。美国一季度实际GDP同比增速回落至2.05%，低于去年同期的2.9%以及去年四季度的 2.53%。美国经济分析局发布的报告显示，净出口对GDP的拖累接近5个百分点，这一数据创下有记录以来 的最高值。 更高的关税会引发供应冲击，给企业带来挑战，进而导致需求回落。消费者也日益担忧关税会对劳动力市 ...