Core Viewpoint - The merger between China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) and China Aviation Oil Group aims to enhance national aviation energy supply security, promote green and low-carbon transformation in aviation energy supply, and establish a world-class aviation energy supplier [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Sinopec is the largest refined oil and petrochemical product supplier in China, the world's largest refining company, and the second-largest chemical company, with a comprehensive energy industry chain [2]. - China Aviation Oil is the largest integrated aviation fuel service provider in Asia, involved in procurement, transportation, storage, testing, sales, and refueling of aviation fuel [2]. Group 2: Market Potential - The demand for aviation kerosene in China is projected to reach approximately 50 million tons by 2030, with an average annual growth rate of around 4% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2]. - According to S&P forecasts, China's aviation fuel consumption is expected to grow to 75 million tons by 2040 [2]. Group 3: Synergies and Competitive Position - The merger is expected to create significant synergies by leveraging integrated refining and aviation fuel supply systems, reducing intermediate links, and lowering supply costs [3]. - Currently, China's aviation fuel production, sales, and refueling operations are fragmented across different companies, which limits overall competitiveness compared to international integrated oil and gas companies [3]. Group 4: Green Transformation - The merger will facilitate the high-quality development of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry, with Sinopec being the first in Asia to have independent R&D and commercial production of bio-jet fuel [3]. - China Aviation Oil plays a crucial role in the promotion and ecological construction of SAF, and the merger will enhance collaboration in this area [3]. Group 5: Strategic Context - This merger marks the first central enterprise-level restructuring case entering the 14th Five-Year Plan, aligning with the government's push for strategic and professional mergers and acquisitions [4]. - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) emphasizes the importance of integrating key technologies, market channels, and strategic resources through mergers [4].

国信证券研报认为，生物柴油的需求主要受政策驱动，2025年全球进入SAF爆发性增长元年。多国强制 掺混政策落地、出口监管体系完善与国内试点扩容形成共振，推动SAF行业迎来结构性拐点。作为国内 最早布局烃基生物柴油与生物航煤（SAF）产业的上市公司，海新能科（300072）凭借先发产能优势、 全产业链布局及国内外市场协同拓展，正全面把握行业发展红利，2025年实现业绩快速增长。 政策适配 客户多元 筑牢出口竞争优势 2025年初，欧盟对华生物柴油反倾销终裁落地，征收10%—35.6%关税，但SAF未被纳入征税范围，加 速行业洗牌，并为中国SAF出口创造相对宽松的贸易环境。英国SAF强制政策同步落地，自2025年起实 施SAF强制义务，掺混比例从2%起步，2030年线性提升至10%，2040年达到22%。与此同时，2025年 SAF出口白名单和配额制度建立，中国自此形成"适航认证+ISCC认证+出口配额"的成套监管体系，SAF 进入规模化国际贸易阶段。 作为国内生物柴油（SAF）产业龙头，海新能科SAF产品此前通过中国民用航空局的适航审定及ISCC CORSIA及ISCC-EU下HEFA碳减排国际认证，2025年 ...

Report Overview - Date: November 25, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products by Guotai Junan Futures 1. Investment Ratings for Different Commodities - Palm Oil: Temporarily treated as weak due to doubts about产地去库存 [2][4] - Soybean Oil: Expected to trade in a range, with a strategy to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [2][4] - Soybean Meal: Expected to trade sideways [2][10] - Soybean No. 1: Expected to trade sideways [2][10] - Corn: Expected to be slightly bullish [2][13] - Sugar: Expected to trade in a narrow range [2][17] - Cotton: Near - term contracts expected to outperform forward contracts [2][21] - Peanut: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2][28] 2. Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of multiple agricultural commodities, including their current market conditions, price trends, and relevant industry news, to help investors make informed decisions regarding agricultural futures investments [2][5][10] 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the palm oil主力 contract was 8,486 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.75%, and 8,454 yuan/ton during the night session, down 0.38%. Trading volume decreased by 114,593 hands, and open interest decreased by 24,130 hands. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,430 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [5] - **News**: Malaysia's use of palm - derived raw materials to produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has not raised negative concerns among European buyers as it meets sustainability standards. The ministry plans to implement a 1% SAF mandatory blending standard for international flights departing from Kuala Lumpur International Airport [6] - **Trend Strength**: 0 (neutral) [9] Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the soybean oil主力 contract was 8,168 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.27%, and 8,174 yuan/ton during the night session, up 0.07%. Trading volume decreased by 120,156 hands, and open interest decreased by 7,040 hands. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,540 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [5] - **Trend Strength**: 0 (neutral) [9] Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1 - **Fundamentals**: For DCE豆一2601, the closing price was 4,150 yuan/ton during the day session, up 1.05%, and 4,132 yuan/ton during the night session, down 0.17%. For DCE豆粕2601, the closing price was 3,011 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.20%, and 3,014 yuan/ton during the night session, up 0.30%. Spot prices in different regions remained mostly stable [10] - **News**: On November 24, CBOT soybean futures closed mixed. Traders were waiting for signs of China's further purchases of US soybeans and details of the latest call between Washington and Beijing. China bought 158.4 million tons of US soybeans last week, and an additional 123,000 tons were sold on Monday. As of November 21, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing was 81% complete, 5 percentage points slower than the same period last year [10][12] - **Trend Strength**: 0 (neutral) for both soybean meal and soybean No. 1 [12] Corn - **Fundamentals**: The northeast acquisition average price was unchanged, while the Jinzhou closing price was 2,220 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The Guangdong Shekou price was 2,380 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of C2601 was 2,220 yuan/ton during the day session, up 1.69%, and 2,231 yuan/ton during the night session, up 0.50% [14] - **News**: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices increased by 30 yuan/ton, and container - shipped first - class grain prices increased by 50 yuan/ton. Guangdong Shekou bulk and container prices increased by 20 yuan/ton [15] - **Trend Strength**: 0 (neutral) [16] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 14.85 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,650 yuan/ton, and the futures主力 price was 5,370 yuan/ton [17] - **News**: In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, India's sugar export quota is 1.5 million tons. Brazil's sugar production in the first half of October increased by 1% year - on - year, and exports were 4.2 million tons, up 13% year - on - year. China imported 750,000 tons of sugar in October, an increase of 210,000 tons [17] - **Trend Strength**: 0 (neutral) [20] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,585 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.93%, and 13,620 yuan/ton during the night session, up 0.26%. Spot prices in different regions showed small changes [21] - **News**: Cotton spot trading was stable, with spinning mills mainly making rigid - demand purchases. Pure - cotton yarn prices were generally stable, and market sales were sluggish [22] - **Trend Strength**: 0 (neutral) [26] Peanut - **Fundamentals**: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 9,900 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan. The closing price of PK601 was 7,794 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [28] - **News**: In different regions such as Henan, Jilin, and Liaoning, peanut prices were generally strong, with varying degrees of supply and demand situations [29] - **Trend Strength**: 0 (neutral) [30]

欧盟需求刺激下，SAF 价格持续上涨 【】【】[Table_Industry] 环保周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 16 日 15666646523.tcy 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 环保 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 郭雪环保联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525030002 邮箱：guoxue@cindasc.com 吴柏莹环保行业分析师 化工行业： 执业编号：S1500524100001 邮箱：wuboying@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 欧盟需求刺激下，SAF 价格持续上涨 2025 年 11 月 16 日 本期内容提要: 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [Table_Author] [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] ➢ 行情 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company ended the quarter with $108 million in cash and cash equivalents, with combined operating revenue, interest, and investment income of $43.6 million, compared to approximately $2 million in the same quarter last year, marking an increase of approximately $41 million [11][12] - The loss from operations was $3.7 million, while non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was a positive $6.6 million, an increase of approximately $23 million from last year's adjusted EBITDA of negative $16.7 million [11][12] - Gevo North Dakota generated income from operations of $12.3 million and a positive non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $17.8 million [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gevo North Dakota is now a core earnings engine, demonstrating reliable energy production, efficient carbon capture, and consistent monetization of clean fuel production credits [13] - Gevo R&G generated income from operations of $0.5 million and positive non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $2.7 million [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company successfully sold all of its 2025 Section 45(z) clean fuel production credits for a total of $52 million, with net proceeds of approximately $29 million received so far [13][14] - The company expects to grow its carbon dioxide removal (CDR) sales from $1 million in Q2 to $3-$5 million by the end of 2025 [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maximize adjusted EBITDA from existing assets and plans to build a jet fuel plant at Gevo North Dakota, which could add an additional adjusted EBITDA uplift of about $150 million [9][10] - The company is focusing on monetizing carbon value through various methods, including selling carbon credits and production tax credits, as part of its business model [6][7] - The company is also working on expanding its carbon capture and sequestration capabilities and optimizing energy use at its facilities [28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the business environment in North Dakota, highlighting its pro-agriculture and pro-energy stance, which aligns well with the company's operations [6] - The management believes that the integration of ethanol production and carbon sequestration is crucial for achieving the best economics and carbon scores for jet fuel [30] - The company anticipates that its operating cash flows will normalize and trend towards break-even or better in the coming quarters [15] Other Important Information - The company has implemented Verity, a digital carbon tracking and verification platform, at its Gevo North Dakota facility, which is expected to enhance transparency and trust in carbon accounting [21][22] - The company has partnered with Frontier Infrastructure Holdings to offer integrated carbon management solutions for ethanol producers [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the incremental capital and steps required to optimize your operation and a reasonable timeline to achieve $110 million of EBITDA? - Management indicated that incremental capital is estimated to be around $15 million, focusing on debottlenecking the ethanol plant and optimizing energy use [34][35] Question: Can you elaborate on the DOE loan extension and how it increases the likelihood of DOE financing? - Management noted that the shift of the DOE loan guarantee to North Dakota is favorable due to the existing profitable operations and infrastructure [38][39] Question: Can you provide insight into the EBITDA drivers for next year? - Management highlighted that growth will primarily come from carbon sequestration capacity expansion and debottlenecking efforts [43][44] Question: How should we project the incremental CI improvement over the next number of quarters? - Management explained that the CI score is expected to drop due to the One Big Beautiful Bill, which will increase 45Z generation [75][76]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: Lack of drivers, focus on short - term support [2] - Soybean oil: US soybeans decline, slow regression of soybean - palm oil spread [2] - Soybean meal: Trade sentiment fluctuates, stay on the sidelines [2] - Soybean: Range - bound [2] - Corn: Short - term bullish [2] - Sugar: Weak operation [2] - Cotton: Pay attention to external market impacts [2] - Eggs: In an adjustment phase [2] - Pigs: Inventory accumulation continues, wait for the release of spot contradictions [2] - Peanuts: Focus on the actions of oil mills [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil's day - session closing price rose 1.65%, night - session fell 0.60%; soybean oil's day - session rose 0.61%, night - session fell 0.12%. Spot prices of palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while that of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong increased by 10 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From November 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield, oil extraction rate, and production increased compared to the same period last month. Argentina's oilseed workers reached a wage agreement with soybean processing enterprises, avoiding a strike [5][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0 [8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: DCE soybean 2601's day - session rose 1.69%, night - session rose 0.19%; DCE soybean meal 2601's day - session rose 0.95%, night - session fell 0.39%. Spot prices of soybean meal in different regions had slight changes [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On November 6, CBOT soybeans fell due to limited Chinese demand. Citi expects China to resume large - scale purchases of US soybeans in the long run [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal and soybean trend intensities are both 0 [12]. Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: Corn's C2601 day - session rose 0.75%, night - session rose 0.09%; C2603 day - session rose 0.88%, night - session rose 0.14%. The price of Guangdong Shekou increased by 10 yuan/ton [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while Guangdong Shekou's increased by 10 yuan/ton [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [17]. Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: Raw sugar price is 14.19 cents/pound, up 0.08. Mainstream spot price is 5730 yuan/ton, up 50 [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's September sugar production increased by 11% year - on - year, but exports decreased. China's September sugar imports were 550,000 tons (+150,000 tons) [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is - 1 [22]. Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: CF2601 day - session fell 0.07%, night - session fell 0.15%; CY2601 day - session rose 0.25%, night - session fell 0.03%. Spot prices of cotton in different regions had slight declines [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was dull, and ICE cotton futures fell due to events in the US [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [28]. Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Egg 2512 rose 1.93%, egg 2601 rose 1.23%. Spot prices in different regions were stable or had slight changes [30]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [30]. Pigs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Henan's spot price is 11,980 yuan/ton, up 100; Sichuan's is 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangdong's is 12,460 yuan/ton, down 100 [32]. - **Market Information**: In September, the national feed production was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pig trend intensity is 0 [34]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: PK601 fell 0.21%, PK603 fell 0.33%. Spot prices of peanuts in different regions had declines or were stable [37]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In some peanut - producing areas, the supply was low, trading was inactive, and prices were stable or weak [38]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [11] Core Insights - The domestic SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) market has seen a significant price increase of 46.7% year-to-date, which is higher than the 9.4% increase in UCO (Used Cooking Oil) prices, indicating improved profitability for companies in this sector [2][6][18] - The demand for biodiesel in the Asia-Pacific region is driving a notable increase in China's biodiesel exports, particularly in Q3 2025, which saw a 15.0% year-on-year growth [7][25] - The report suggests focusing on raw material suppliers and processing companies, such as Zhuoyue New Energy, as the industry shows an upward trend in profitability and demand [2][9] Summary by Sections SAF & HVO - Four domestic companies have received export approval for a total capacity of 1.16 million tons of SAF, with the second batch of export whitelist being established in October 2025 [6][17] - The price of European FOB SAF has increased by 46.7% this year, leading to a favorable outlook for company profitability as the price gap between products and raw materials continues to widen [6][18] Biodiesel - China's biodiesel exports reached 647,000 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 27.5% year-on-year, but Q3 2025 saw a significant recovery with a 15.0% year-on-year increase [7][25] - The average export price of biodiesel in Q3 2025 was $1,152 per ton, reflecting an 11.7% year-on-year increase [7][25] UCO - In Q3 2025, China's UCO exports totaled 635,000 tons, a decrease of 11.2% year-on-year, attributed to the cancellation of export tax rebates in December 2024 [8][37] - The average export price for UCO in Q3 2025 was $1,082 per ton, up 19.7% year-on-year, driven by increased international demand due to EU regulations [8][37] Market Outlook - The report anticipates further supportive policies for the domestic market, particularly in renewable energy consumption targets, which will benefit the biodiesel sector [9][47] - The SAF industry is expected to grow significantly as multiple countries implement blending targets and incentives, transitioning from planning to actual demand [9][47]

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) sector, particularly in the development of molecular sieve catalysts necessary for the isomerization and de-waxing processes in SAF production [1] Group 1: Company Strategy and Focus - The company has completed the development and reserve of various molecular sieve materials, with catalysts performing well in long-term industrial raw material operations [1] - The company does not directly produce SAF fuel but aims to provide high-performance, import-substitutable key catalytic materials for SAF production enterprises and related technology providers [1] - The company plans to increase R&D investment in renewable resources, leveraging its core advantages in molecular sieve material development and large-scale production to promote industrial applications in SAF and other clean energy sectors [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The SAF industry is transitioning from being policy-driven to market-oriented, with continuous improvement in industry prosperity [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The company has achieved a significant turnaround, with a revenue of 3.005 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 189.39%, and a net profit of 53 million yuan in Q3 2025, marking a return to profitability [1][4][13] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) industry, with a strong production capacity and technological advantages, particularly after obtaining SAF export licenses in May 2025 [2][3][11] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in January 2003, focuses on the research, production, and sales of bio-based plasticizers and biomass energy, with SAF becoming its main product since 2025 [2][10] - The company has built the first domestic 500,000-ton SAF production line using Honeywell technology, which is expected to be operational by the end of 2024 [2][11] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.707 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 511.45% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 105.28% [1][4] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 9.15%, while the net margin was -0.83% [1][4] Industry Outlook - The SAF industry is expected to grow significantly, with Europe mandating a 2% SAF blending requirement starting in 2025, which is projected to increase to 6% by 2030 [3][20] - The European SAF market is currently facing a supply-demand gap, with consumption expected to reach 1.9 million tons in 2023, while production capacity is only around 1 million tons [3][25] Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 4.465 billion yuan, 7.005 billion yuan, and 9.608 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 87 million yuan, 465 million yuan, and 703 million yuan [4][39] - The expected EPS for the same period is 1.13 yuan, 6.05 yuan, and 9.15 yuan per share [4][39] Valuation - The reasonable valuation range for the company's stock is estimated to be between 97.75 and 121.00 yuan, based on both absolute and relative valuation methods [4][46]

Core Insights - The global business aviation sector is experiencing unprecedented growth, with a projected demand for new business jets reaching a total delivery value of $283 billion over the next decade [2] - The report forecasts the delivery of 8,500 new business jets from now until 2035, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 3% [2] - Key drivers of this market surge include the rise of fractional ownership models and favorable tax policies in the U.S. [3] Market Dynamics - The fractional ownership model has significantly contributed to the increase in aircraft demand, with fleets managed by fractional ownership operators growing by 65% since 2019, reaching around 1,300 aircraft [3] - U.S. tax policies, particularly the "100% bonus depreciation" provision, are influencing procurement plans, allowing companies to deduct the full cost of business jets from taxable income in the year of purchase [3] - Global operator confidence is reflected in order data, with 20% of operators indicating they hold at least one confirmed aircraft order, up from 17% in 2024 [3] Usage Trends - Business jet usage frequency is steadily increasing, with 91% of operators expecting flight hours in 2026 to be the same or higher than in 2025 [4] - Total flight hours for business jets globally have increased by 3%, reversing a stagnation observed between 2023 and 2024 [4] - North America is projected to receive approximately 70% of new business jet deliveries over the next three years, maintaining its dominance in the market [4] Buyer Preferences - Buyers' procurement criteria are shifting, with aircraft performance metrics surpassing purchase cost as the primary consideration for operators [5] - 89% of respondents prioritize performance among their top three decision-making criteria, while only 56% consider cost [5] - Sustainability is increasingly influencing purchasing decisions, with 81% of operators believing that developing more fuel-efficient aircraft is key to achieving carbon reduction goals [5] Industry Outlook - The report, based on macroeconomic analysis and a survey of 312 non-fractional ownership operators managing 1,199 business jets, provides critical insights for industry development [6] - Although historical data suggests that forecasts may sometimes be slightly optimistic, the anticipated introduction of new aircraft models and a stable global economy support the optimistic outlook for the business aviation sector [6]