特朗普上台以后，经常在社交媒体上「炮轰」美联储和鲍威尔，咄咄逼人的态势有时候甚至比对中国都强横。 为啥呢？为什么特朗普一直在刀口向内呢？核心就一个词：降息。 那今天我们不拽什么术语，就一篇文章给你讲清楚，美国利率到底意味着什么，降息对咱们国家是好是坏。 大家应该都知道，美国没有央行的概念，美联储理论上说是个私人机构。 所以美国总统有时候没办法直接干预美国利率，但特朗普有自己的办法。 骂鲍威尔是太迟先生（Mr. Too Late），称其决策"混乱且危险"，甚至威胁"越早走人越好"，这一切行为都是想通过把鲍威尔钉在历史罪人的耻辱柱上，来 逼迫美联储降息。 为啥呢？ 7月特朗普发了一个文，说美国利率至少偏高2个百分点，每个百分点每年造成3600亿美元成本。 这话到底有没有科学依据不重要，重要的是，特朗普点出了一个关键点，就是美国利率意味着经济成本。 道理很简单，利率高大家就喜欢存钱，不论是老百姓还是各种机构，都喜欢囤起来，安安稳稳的赚利息就好。 那市面上的钱就少了，对应的，融资成本也就高了（借钱的利率也就贵了嘛）。 举个例子，美国政府也借钱，也就是咱们常说的美国赤字。 那政府借钱，也是要还利息的。 2024年美国国 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that several dollar-denominated wealth management products in China have been terminated early due to reaching their preset profit-taking conditions, reflecting a trend in the market [1][3][4] - The "Zhaoyin Wealth Management Zhaorui Dollar Overseas QDII" product was terminated after only 7 months, with a target annualized return of 4.20% [1] - Other products, such as those from Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China, have also been terminated early, indicating a broader trend in the industry [3][4] Group 2 - The total scale of dollar-denominated wealth management products has surpassed 520 billion yuan, showing significant growth compared to the previous year [4] - In June, the market saw a record high of 161 new dollar-denominated wealth management products, a 31.97% increase from the same period last year [4] - Many banks are offering annualized returns exceeding 5%, with some products reaching over 5.5% [4] Group 3 - The high returns on dollar-denominated wealth management products are primarily due to the high benchmark interest rates in the U.S., although a rate-cutting cycle is anticipated [5] - Long-term projections suggest a downward trend in U.S. interest rates, which may reduce the yields on dollar deposits and bond assets [5] - Concerns about the U.S. dollar's performance are linked to fluctuating policies, worsening fiscal conditions, and criticisms of the Federal Reserve, which may impact demand for dollar-denominated products [5]

美国总统特朗普表示，美国 利率应当维持在1%。 ...

智通财经7月15日电，特朗普称美国利率"太高"，每个点的代价是3600亿美元。美国没有通货膨胀。 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - Clients believe that China's growth target of around 5% is likely to be achieved due to resilient export demand, although concerns exist about a significant slowdown in exports after the summer [1] - There is a prevailing pessimism regarding the real estate market, with expectations of continued declines in housing prices and a contraction in real estate investment extending into next year [1] - Many clients anticipate that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation may remain negative for the year, and there is little hope for additional policy stimulus unless economic data deteriorates rapidly [1] Group 2: Trade Relations - Clients express concerns about potential escalation in trade tensions as the July 9 deadline approaches, but most believe that the peak of uncertainty has passed [2] - Despite trade uncertainties, some international clients are increasing investments in Chinese production infrastructure due to cost efficiency and product quality advantages [2] - Investors expect the USD/CNY exchange rate to remain stable, although there are notable downside risks, with many anticipating a further weakening of the dollar in the medium term [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies - In a low-yield and low-volatility environment, investors are seeking alternative investment opportunities, with some asset management firms increasing their equity allocations for better returns [3] - The upcoming QDII quota issuance allows qualified investors to expand their investments in overseas securities, with attention on potential improvements to the interconnectivity mechanism during the upcoming Bond Connect anniversary summit [3] Group 4: Views on U.S. Interest Rates - There is a divergence in client views regarding U.S. fiscal risks, with some preferring tactical trading in the middle of the yield curve while others are increasing holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly the 20-year bonds, due to attractive yields [5] - Clients are considering hedging duration risk as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains below 4.3% [5]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley strategists indicate that the sensitivity of the US dollar to US interest rates has increased, leading to a new negative correlation with the term premium of US Treasury bonds, which is expected to further pressure the dollar [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **US Dollar Sensitivity** - The overall sensitivity of the US dollar to US interest rates has risen [1] - **Negative Correlation** - A new negative correlation has emerged between the US dollar and the term premium of US Treasury bonds [1] - **Forecast on Dollar Index** - If US interest rate trends align with expectations, the dollar index is projected to decline by an additional 6% [1]