美国国债下跌，交易员几乎抹去了对美联储本月晚些时候降息的押注。此前，12月失业率的降幅超出预 期，抵消了总体就业人数增长疲软的影响。周五报告发布后，美国政府债券价格下跌，推高了各期限收 益率，涨幅多达3个基点。债券交易员维持了2026年全年总共降息两次的预测，预计首次降息将在年中 进行。Natixis North America美国利率策略主管John Briggs表示："对我们而言，美联储更关注失业率， 而不是总体数据中的噪音。因此在我看来，这对美国利率略微利空。"此前，受10月1日至11月12日长达 六周的政府停摆影响，9月、10月和11月的劳工报告推迟发布。此次就业数据提供了首份能够反映宏观 经济就业趋势的"干净"读数。美联储是否进一步降息，被认为取决于未来几个月劳动力市场的表现。此 前，为应对劳动力市场疲软，美联储在过去三次会议上均下调了短期贷款利率的目标区间。然而，部分 官员仍对通胀高于目标感到担忧，这被视为限制了进一步宽松的步伐。 来源：滚动播报 ...

格隆汇12月11日｜资产管理公司Edmond de Rothschild首席执行官Benjamin Melman表示，美元明年可能 再次面临下行风险。"若市场再度担忧美国利率，或人工智能泡沫突然破裂，美元将面临风险。" 随着 美联储降息，美元今年持续走弱。美元指数DXY最新下跌0.05%至98.59。9月中旬该指数曾触及96.218 的三年半低点。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Group 1 - US stock index futures are up, with Dow futures rising by 0.37%, S&P 500 futures by 0.49%, and Nasdaq futures by 0.64% [1] - Chinese concept stocks are performing well in pre-market trading, with Bilibili, Li Auto, and Alibaba rising over 3.5%, while JD.com, Baidu, and Beike are up over 2.5%, and Xpeng Motors is up over 1% [1] - Spotify's stock is up over 1% in pre-market trading, as JPMorgan raised its target price from $740 to $805 [1] - EA is reportedly negotiating a privatization deal potentially worth $50 billion, with a consortium that may include Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, Silver Lake, and Jared Kushner's Affinity Partners [1] - Novo Nordisk's stock is down over 3% after Morgan Stanley lowered its target price from 380 Danish Krone to 300 Danish Krone and downgraded its rating from "Equal Weight" to "Underweight" [1] Group 2 - AstraZeneca plans to list on the New York Stock Exchange while retaining its headquarters in the UK, aiming to attract more investors [2] - TotalEnergies has signed an agreement to sell 50% of its North American solar asset portfolio for $950 million to KKR, while retaining operational control [2] - Spot gold prices have surpassed $3,800 per ounce, reaching a new historical high, driven by investor demand for safe-haven assets amid uncertainties regarding US government shutdown and Federal Reserve policies [2] Group 3 - Jefferies economists suggest that US interest rates may not decline as quickly or significantly as the market expects, due to the resilience of the US economy [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are expected to rise for the fourth consecutive week, driven by concerns over a weak U.S. labor market overshadowing inflation worries, with widespread expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next week [1] Group 1: Market Trends - As of this week, spot gold has increased by approximately 1.8% [1] - Market sentiment suggests a high likelihood of at least three interest rate cuts before the end of 2025, with expectations for the magnitude of cuts being significantly higher than two months ago [1] Group 2: Price Projections - Ryan McIntyre from Sprott Inc. indicates that gold prices are nearing $3,700, suggesting a potential breakout [1] - Short-term technical analysis points to resistance around $3,900, but long-term views suggest that many institutions may still be significantly underweight in gold [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Vice President Vance stated that U.S. interest rates are excessively high and that the Federal Reserve has not fulfilled its responsibilities [1] Group 1 - The Vice President's comments highlight concerns regarding the current monetary policy and its impact on the economy [1] - There is an implication that the Federal Reserve's actions may not align with the economic needs of the country [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of U.S. interest rates and the potential benefits and risks of interest rate cuts, particularly in the context of Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve and its chairman Powell [1][3][11]. Group 1: U.S. Interest Rates and Economic Impact - Trump has been vocal about the need for lower interest rates, arguing that current rates are too high and impose significant economic costs, estimating a $360 billion annual cost for each percentage point of high interest rates [5][7]. - High interest rates lead to reduced borrowing and spending, which can result in job losses and lower economic growth, as evidenced by the disappointing non-farm payroll data [8][10]. - Lowering interest rates could stimulate economic activity by making borrowing cheaper, which is crucial for consumer spending and business expansion [7][11]. Group 2: Global Trade and Currency Dynamics - A reduction in interest rates could weaken the dollar, making U.S. exports more competitive while also mitigating the impact of tariffs on consumers [10][11]. - However, a weaker dollar could also lead to a stronger yuan, potentially harming China's export competitiveness and accelerating the shift of low-end manufacturing to Southeast Asia [21][23]. Group 3: Opportunities and Risks for Emerging Markets - Historically, U.S. rate cuts have led to increased capital inflows into emerging markets, which could benefit markets like China's A-shares [19]. - The influx of capital could also create asset bubbles and financial volatility, particularly in sectors like technology [21][24]. - To mitigate risks, China could enhance its import reserves and support high-tech industries while upgrading its manufacturing capabilities to counteract the effects of a weaker dollar [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement six rate cuts of 25 basis points each over the next 18 months, potentially lowering the federal funds rate to 3.0% by the end of 2026 [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market has shown significant signs of slowing down [1] - Inflation conditions have improved markedly compared to three years ago [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Leadership - Stephen Milan's upcoming addition to the Federal Reserve Board and the anticipated new chair replacing Jerome Powell by May suggest a downward trend in interest rates over the next 18 months [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that several dollar-denominated wealth management products in China have been terminated early due to reaching their preset profit-taking conditions, reflecting a trend in the market [1][3][4] - The "Zhaoyin Wealth Management Zhaorui Dollar Overseas QDII" product was terminated after only 7 months, with a target annualized return of 4.20% [1] - Other products, such as those from Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China, have also been terminated early, indicating a broader trend in the industry [3][4] Group 2 - The total scale of dollar-denominated wealth management products has surpassed 520 billion yuan, showing significant growth compared to the previous year [4] - In June, the market saw a record high of 161 new dollar-denominated wealth management products, a 31.97% increase from the same period last year [4] - Many banks are offering annualized returns exceeding 5%, with some products reaching over 5.5% [4] Group 3 - The high returns on dollar-denominated wealth management products are primarily due to the high benchmark interest rates in the U.S., although a rate-cutting cycle is anticipated [5] - Long-term projections suggest a downward trend in U.S. interest rates, which may reduce the yields on dollar deposits and bond assets [5] - Concerns about the U.S. dollar's performance are linked to fluctuating policies, worsening fiscal conditions, and criticisms of the Federal Reserve, which may impact demand for dollar-denominated products [5]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump stated that U.S. interest rates should be maintained at 1% [1] Group 1 - The suggestion to keep interest rates at 1% reflects a stance aimed at supporting economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trump claims that U.S. interest rates are "too high," stating that each percentage point costs the economy $360 billion, and asserts that there is no inflation in the U.S. [1] Group 1 - Trump emphasizes the economic impact of high interest rates, quantifying the cost at $360 billion for each percentage point increase [1] - The assertion that the U.S. is not experiencing inflation challenges prevailing economic narratives [1]