宏 观 及 期 指 点 评 2025 年 3 月 25 日 中东军事冲突出现缓和 股指期货继续震荡上行 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成 具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作 出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【行情前瞻要点】 3 月 25 日，股指期货主力合约 IF2606、IH2606、IC2606 和 IM2606 小幅高开；开盘后，冲高遇阻回落， 震荡上行，继续反弹走高。美国政府通过巴基斯坦向伊朗提出一份包含 15 项条件的结束冲突方案，涵盖核 计划、导弹能力及地区问题。中东军事冲突出现缓和迹象，市场风险偏好回升，刺激股指期货短线继续震荡 上行。 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率 如下： | 期货品种 ...

| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2606 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 政策持续利好 VS 中东地缘危机 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 3 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡大幅反弹。美伊局势反复搅动市场，国际油价下跌，股市全面反弹。短 期内美以伊冲突仍是全球资产的主要定价锚，在局势明朗前，股市高波动状态或将延续。一旦 ...

宏 观 及 期 指 点 评 2025 年 3 月 23 日 地缘政治风险抑制风险偏好 股指期货偏弱震荡下行 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成 具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作 出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【行情前瞻要点】 3 月 23 日，股指期货主力合约 IF2606、IH2606、IC2606 和 IM2606 跳空低开；开盘后，偏弱震荡下行， 下行压力明显增大。美以伊战争冲突继续升级，市场担心战争扩大化、长期化，地缘政治风险抑制市场风险 偏好，股指期货中短线、短线继续下行压力明显增大，下行空间进一步打开。 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期 2026 年 3 月期货主力合约行情走 势大概率如下： | 期货品种 | 主力合约 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is range - bound, with the co - existence of macro - recession risks caused by the Middle East geopolitical crisis and continuous policy benefits [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2606, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is bullish, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is the co - existence of continuous policy benefits and the Middle East geopolitical crisis [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is range - bound. The core logic is that yesterday, each stock index oscillated and declined. The continuous escalation of the Middle East geopolitical crisis has increased risks such as global energy supply shortage, key raw material supply chain interruption, and macro - economic recession. The Fed's interest rate decision in March maintained the interest rate and said it would not cut interest rates before inflation improved, leading to a marginal tightening of the global liquidity environment and a decline in the stock market valuation level. As the Shanghai Composite Index fell to around the 4000 - point mark, the support of continuous policy benefits gradually emerged. The policy focuses on stabilizing corporate profit expectations and developing new - quality productivity. In the short term, the stock index is mainly range - bound [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is mainly range - bound, with the co - existence of continuous policy benefits and global economic stagflation risks [1][5] - The current stock market has a mix of long and short factors, investors' risk appetite is cautious, and trading volume has shrunk. Policy support is strong, but the long - term risk of the Middle East geopolitical crisis and global economic stagflation have put pressure on the stock performance and valuation [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2606, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "bullish", and the reference view is "range - bound". The core logic is the co - existence of continuous policy benefits and global economic stagflation risks [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is "bullish", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "range - bound". The core logic is that the stock index continued to oscillate and consolidate yesterday. A - share trading volume shrank. There are a mix of long and short factors in the stock market, with policy support and risks of global economic stagflation [5]