刚刚，日本央行动手了！ 日本央行将基准利率从0.5%上调至0.75%，创下1995年以来的最高水平。这是一次全球资本市场的极限压力测试。 30年了，那个最廉价的"钱袋子"，水龙头要关了。 "区区"0.25个百分点的变动，为何全球市场如临大敌？日元涉及一个潜伏在全球市场深处、规模以万亿美元计的"金融炸弹"。 这个炸弹，叫 "套息交易"。 1995年日本泡沫经济破裂的余震未消，央行将利率砍到0.5%，试图挽救沉沦的经济。日本踏入了"失去的三十年"，利率也近乎躺平，长期在零附近徘徊。 (本文内容均为客观数据信息罗列，不构成任何投资建议） 超低利率，成了日本对抗经济冰河期的"特效药"。但也因此，日元成了全球最便宜、最唾手可得的资金。 命运的齿轮就此开始转动，一个巨大的全球游戏——套息交易，由此诞生。这个游戏的精髓，就是"借便宜的日元，去买全世界"。 什么是套息交易？ 这就好比你发现了一张无限透支的信用卡，而且这张卡几乎不用利息。这就是过去三十年的日元。 因为日本长期维持近乎"零利率"，全球聪明钱发现了一个稳赚不赔的生意： 如果算上杠杆，收益率更是惊人。 这就是华尔街最拥挤、最赚钱、也最依赖的交易策略——日元套息交易( ...

Group 1 - The core issue of housing difficulties in Hong Kong has persisted for a long time, with average living conditions being significantly lower than in mainland cities, as evidenced by a median living area of 172 square feet (approximately 16 square meters) compared to 46 square meters in mainland cities [4][24] - The "85,000 Housing Plan" proposed in 1997 aimed to supply at least 85,000 housing units annually to address the severe housing shortage in Hong Kong, but it ultimately failed due to structural issues and external shocks like the Asian financial crisis [5][25] - The plan's interruption was exacerbated by the influence of powerful real estate interests, which resisted policies that threatened their profits, leading to significant political and economic pressure on the government [6][26] Group 2 - The A-share market has faced challenges with new stock issuance, characterized by a pattern of rapid bull markets followed by prolonged bear markets, resulting in significant losses for retail investors while benefiting major shareholders [9][28] - The lack of a truly market-oriented system for stock issuance and delisting has hindered the development of a healthy investment environment, with regulatory practices that favor established companies over potentially high-growth firms [10][29] - The introduction of the IPO registration system has been slow and met with resistance, as the market's capacity to absorb new listings is insufficient, leading to a scarcity of new companies and inflated valuations for existing stocks [11][30] Group 3 - Both the "85,000 Housing Plan" and the A-share IPO registration system share a common theme of ambitious reform goals that are mismatched with the system's capacity to implement them effectively, leading to similar failures [12][31] - External shocks, such as the Asian financial crisis and recent global liquidity tightening, have reversed the progress of both housing and capital market reforms, causing significant setbacks [13][32] - The entrenched interests in both sectors have created structural resistance to reform, with real estate developers and financial institutions opposing policies that threaten their established profit models [14][33] Group 4 - Public pressure and political risks have forced both the housing plan and the IPO registration system to be scaled back, as negative market reactions and public protests have led to a prioritization of stability over reform [15][34] - Historical experiences suggest that temporary measures like halting IPOs do not address the underlying issues in the market, and a more sustainable approach is needed to foster long-term growth [16][35] - The need for a transparent and well-communicated reform strategy is critical to maintaining public trust and ensuring the successful implementation of policies in both housing and capital markets [19][38]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices may experience a short - term pull - back due to concerns about liquidity tightening caused by Japan's potential interest rate hike, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Alumina prices are expected to be under continuous pressure. Aluminum prices are likely to be strong in the medium - term. Zinc prices may be affected by macro factors, and lead prices may fluctuate strongly in the short - term. Nickel prices have limited upside potential due to weak demand. Stainless steel prices are recommended for short - side allocation. Tin prices will maintain high - level volatility. Industrial silicon prices have limited downside space in the short - term. Polysilicon prices are recommended to hold short positions. Lithium carbonate prices may face callback pressure in the medium - term [3][10][16] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract 2601 of copper futures closed at 88,920 yuan/ton, up 0.1%, and the Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 1,209 lots to 587,000 lots. The spot copper price declined, and the supply in the market was tight. The Shanghai spot premium rose, while the North China consumption was weak, and the spot premium and discount weakened [1] - **Important Information**: The Bank of Japan governor strongly hinted at a December interest rate hike. The US November ISM manufacturing PMI index was 48.2, lower than expected. Chile's October copper production decreased by 7% year - on - year. The CSPT group plans to reduce the copper concentrate production capacity load by more than 10% in 2026 [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Concerns about global liquidity tightening were triggered by the Bank of Japan's hawkish remarks. The US ISM manufacturing PMI was weak. The copper supply in 2026 remains tight, and the CSPT group plans to cut production. The Comex copper inventory is increasing, and the LME's B - structure is expanding. The copper price may pull back in the short - term but will rise in the long - term [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider partially taking profits on long positions below 86,000 yuan/ton and rebuying after the correction. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [4][5][6] Alumina - **Related Information**: An electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Yunnan purchased 0.2 million tons of spot alumina on December 1. Some alumina enterprises in Shanxi are under maintenance. Four alumina new - construction projects in Guangxi are in different progress stages [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: After the alumina price decline, there was maintenance in the northern market, but it did not affect the monthly output. Near the end - of - year long - term contract negotiation period, the alumina price is expected to be under pressure [10] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the alumina price will oscillate weakly. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [11][12][13] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Related Information**: The Bank of Japan governor's statement intensified market speculation about a December policy shift. The total inventory of Chinese aluminum ingot spot was 591,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous period. The US November ISM manufacturing PMI was weak. A 500,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia was put into production [15] - **Trading Logic**: The Fed's dovish remarks and US economic data increased the market's attention to non - interest - bearing assets. Aluminum has a supply gap globally, and its fundamentals are supported. In the short - term, new projects are put into production as scheduled, and domestic aluminum consumption is resilient [16] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the aluminum price will be strong, and it is advisable to go long on dips in the medium - term. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [20] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Related Information**: The Bank of Japan governor signaled a possible interest rate hike. In October 2025, China's imports and exports of unforged aluminum alloy and waste aluminum had certain volumes, and the warehouse receipts of casting aluminum alloy increased [18][21][22] - **Trading Logic**: The market's concern about the Fed's non - interest - rate - cut in December was alleviated, but there are concerns about Japan's interest rate hike. The waste aluminum resources are in short supply, and the demand is differentiated [23] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it will oscillate strongly along with the aluminum price. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [24] Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2601 rose 1% to 22,745 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai zinc index increased by 4,053 lots. In the spot market, the downstream was hesitant to buy due to high prices, but the trading among traders was active [26] - **Related Information**: As of December 1, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots decreased. A zinc - lead project in Algeria is expected to start production as planned [27] - **Logic Analysis**: In December, domestic northern mines will enter seasonal shutdown, and the refined zinc production is expected to decrease. The zinc concentrate import is in a loss state. The zinc price may be affected by macro factors [28] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, continue to hold the remaining profitable long positions and be vigilant against macro factors. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [32] Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2601 rose 0.73% to 17,210 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai lead index increased by 2,060 lots. In the spot market, the lead price increased slightly, and the downstream maintained rigid demand [34] - **Related Information**: The new national standard for electric bicycles was implemented on December 1. The procurement sentiment of downstream lead - acid battery factories was average, and the social inventory of lead ingots decreased [35] - **Logic Analysis**: The cost of recycled lead smelting increased, and the smelters were reluctant to sell. The production of primary lead was affected by maintenance, and the inventory decreased. The lead price may fluctuate strongly in the short - term [36] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the Shanghai lead price may fluctuate strongly in the range. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [37] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract NI2601 of Shanghai nickel rose 570 to 118,050 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 1,877 lots. The spot premiums of Jinchuan nickel, Russian nickel, and electrowinning nickel changed [39] - **Important Information**: Indonesian companies support the cooperation between Tsingshan and UNIDO. GreenMei's nickel project in Indonesia is operating normally. In November 2025, the domestic ternary material production decreased slightly, and the production is expected to decline further in December [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The terminal demand is in the off - season, and the supply is still tilted towards nickel sulfate. The supply - demand is loose, and the price has limited upside potential [42] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy was mentioned in the text Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract SS201 of stainless steel rose 70 to 12,465 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased by 5,518 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [44] - **Important Information**: POSCO maintained the stainless steel price in December. A stainless steel project in Jieyang was in the environmental impact assessment stage. Indonesia's nickel product exports to China accounted for a large proportion [45] - **Logic Analysis**: The terminal demand in December is not optimistic, and the domestic crude steel production plan decreased significantly. The short - term price rebound lacks a solid foundation, and the price is still restricted by inventory [46] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, adopt a short - side allocation. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [46] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2601 closed at 306,980 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan/ton or 0.24%. The spot price of tin decreased, and the market was in a wait - and - see state [52] - **Related Information**: The US November ISM manufacturing PMI was weak. In October 2025, China's tin ore imports increased month - on - month [52][53] - **Logic Analysis**: False news once pushed up the tin price. The domestic tin concentrate imports increased in October, but the processing fee remained low. The production decreased slightly, and the demand was in the off - season [54] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it will maintain high - level volatility after a short - term pull - back. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [55][56] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The environmental protection improvement project of Luxi Chemical's silicone device passed the acceptance monitoring [57] - **Logic Analysis**: In December, the production in Yunnan and Sichuan may decrease, while large enterprises in the northwest will increase production. The demand from the silicone and polysilicon industries has certain changes, and the price has limited downside space in the short - term [58] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell on rallies in the short - term. If the inventory accumulates significantly, the price may decline further [58] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: On December 1, the clearing results of Liaoning Power Grid's mechanism electricity price bidding were announced [60] - **Logic Analysis**: The silicon wafer and battery market are under pressure, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [61] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for single - side trading. For arbitrage, conduct a long - short spread operation between Si2601 and Si2602. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [62] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2605 of lithium carbonate decreased by 700 to 96,560 yuan/ton, and the position and warehouse receipts increased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [66] - **Important Information**: The lithium battery recycling industry has improved. Tianhua New Energy plans to increase lithium salt production capacity. In November 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate production increased, and it is expected to continue to reduce inventory in December [67] - **Logic Analysis**: There are differences in the demand side's production plan in December. The supply is expected to increase, and the price may face callback pressure in the medium - term [68] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, buy after a sufficient long - term pull - back. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options for the 2605 contract [69][70]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing a continuous decline, with spot gold falling below $4200 per ounce, currently reported at $4189.03 per ounce, reflecting a drop of 1% [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The decline in gold prices is attributed to rising U.S. Treasury yields and profit-taking, while investors await U.S. economic data to assess the Federal Reserve's policy direction [4]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains near a two-week high, diminishing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [4]. - Market expectations indicate a nearly 90% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, alongside a continuous decline in the U.S. dollar index [4]. Group 2: Comparative Analysis - Short-term gold price trends appear weaker compared to silver, with a general rise in the base metals sector indicating a recovery in market risk appetite, which is unfavorable for gold prices [4]. - The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for November fell short of expectations and has contracted for nine consecutive months, heightening concerns over economic slowdown and monetary policy easing [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical uncertainties are heightened by discussions within the Trump administration regarding further actions in Venezuela and the Russian military's control over two key towns in Ukraine, which may boost safe-haven demand [4]. - Conversely, signals from the Bank of Japan's governor regarding potential interest rate hikes suggest a tightening global liquidity environment, which could limit upward movement in precious metals [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that despite the current market pressures, the combination of weak economic data and geopolitical risks may provide short-term support for gold prices [4]. - The overall sentiment remains that the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts will support gold prices from a yield perspective [5].

中国基金报记者 忆山 12月2日，国际金价持续下跌。截至发稿，伦敦金现失守4200美元/盎司，报4189.03美元/盎司，跌幅达 1%；COMEX黄金报4227.1美元/盎司，下跌1.12%。 来源：中国基金报 【导读】国际金价持续下跌，现货黄金失守4200美元/盎司 KCM Trade首席市场分析师蒂姆·沃特表示，黄金基本面未变，包括预期的美联储降息，从收益率角度 看应会支撑金价。 编辑：江右 校对：纪元 制作：舰长 审核：陈思扬 | W | | | | 伦敦金现 SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | O | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4189.030 | | 昨结 | | 4231.470 | 总量 | | | 0 | | -42.440 | -1.00% 开盘 | | | 4231.470 | 现手 | | | 0 | | 最高价 | 4236.000 | 持 | 色 | 0 | タト | 智 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 4180.895 | 增 | 色 | 0 | 内 | 盟 | | 0 | | 分时 ...

Industry Outlook - The Chinese equipment manufacturing industry is expected to focus on mining machinery, data center power supply, and equipment replacement cycles by 2026, with large mining excavators and trucks becoming key growth areas due to high metal prices and aging equipment [2] - Capital expenditure in global mining companies is projected to remain high, benefiting Chinese brands like Zoomlion, Sany Heavy Industry, and Sany International [2] - The domestic market is expected to see a continued equipment replacement cycle, with increased demand driven by the acceleration of hydropower project tenders in 2026 [2] - The global demand for backup generators for data centers is forecasted to increase by 70% from 2025 to 2030, presenting opportunities for Weichai Power to enter this market [2] Company Analysis - Sany Heavy Industry is expected to benefit from the growth in overseas large mining excavators and emerging markets, with an upward adjustment of 2-5% in profit forecasts for 2025E-27E due to increased sales assumptions [7] - Zoomlion is positioned to leverage its complete product line and focus on emerging markets, with profit forecasts for 2025E-27E raised by 12-15% [8] - Weichai Power anticipates a slowdown in heavy truck engine demand growth to 3% in 2026, but will benefit from the explosive growth in backup power supply engines for data centers, with profit forecasts for 2025E-27E adjusted upward by 1-5% [9] - Baozun's e-commerce segment reported a revenue of 2.2 billion RMB in Q3 2025, a 5% year-on-year increase, with a narrowing net loss driven by margin expansion and cost optimization [10]

CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年12月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：日本央行的鹰派言论引发了对全球流动性收紧的担忧，金价受银价拉动 上涨；美国三大股指全线收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率集体上 涨，10年期美债收益率涨7.33个基点报4.087%；美元指数跌0.03%报99.41，离岸人 民币对美元小幅贬值报7.0720；COMEX黄金期货涨0.24%报4265.00美元/盎；中性 2、基差：黄金期货963.28，现货957.5，基差-5.78，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单90873千克，增加450千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US November ISM manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.2, contracting for nine consecutive months, with a weak demand and improving output situation. The market's expectation of a December BOJ interest rate hike rose to 80%, leading to a stronger yen and a significant increase in Japanese bond yields. In the domestic market, the November RatingDog manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9, shifting from expansion to contraction. A-shares rose with heavy volume on Monday, and the bond market generally recovered [2][3]. - Precious metals: Silver prices reached a new high, but short - term risks need to be watched. Copper: CSPT may jointly cut production next year, and copper prices hit a record high. Aluminum: Despite the off - season, aluminum prices are expected to be strong. Alumina: Local production cuts may provide temporary support. Cast aluminum: It is expected to oscillate strongly. Zinc: The price center has moved up, and it is expected to continue to oscillate strongly in the short term. Lead: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the price is expected to repair strongly. Tin: The macro and micro performances are differentiated, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Industrial silicon: The supply and demand are stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Steel products: Cost rebounds drive the price to oscillate and rebound. Iron ore: The price is under pressure to oscillate. Coking coal and coke: The price rebounds at a low level, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. Bean and rapeseed meal: It is expected to oscillate in the short term. Palm oil: It is expected to oscillate within a range [4][6][8][10][11][12][14][16][17][19][20][21][23][25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The US November ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.2, with new orders dropping at the fastest rate since July, factory employment continuing to contract, raw material payment prices rising, and the production index expanding at the fastest rate in four months. The BOJ governor hinted at a possible December interest rate hike, and the market's expectation probability rose to 80%, leading to a stronger yen and a significant increase in Japanese bond yields. The US dollar index fell back to the 99 mark and then rebounded, and the 10Y US Treasury yield rose to 4.08%. Silver and copper reached new highs and then fell, while oil prices closed higher [2]. - Domestic: The November RatingDog manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9, shifting from expansion to contraction. New export orders grew at the fastest rate in eight months, indicating a recovery in external demand, but the overall sentiment remained in the contraction range. A - shares rose with heavy volume on Monday, and the bond market generally recovered [3]. Precious Metals - International gold and silver prices continued to rise on Monday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.24% to $4265.00 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.25% to $58.45 per ounce, with silver hitting a new record high. COMEX platinum and palladium futures showed a trend of rising and then falling and closed slightly lower. The tightness of New York silver spot and potential delivery risks boosted silver prices. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December exceeded 87%. It's not advisable to chase high in the short term, and the domestic platinum and palladium are expected to be weak [4][5]. Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper approached the 90,000 mark, and LME copper reached a maximum of over 11,300 and then fell. The CSPT plans to cut production by more than 10% in 2026 to address the distorted copper concentrate processing fees. The US November ISM manufacturing PMI was lower than expected and the previous value, hitting a four - month low. The weak US manufacturing data and the uncertainty of the Fed's leadership have an impact on copper prices. Overall, copper prices are expected to remain strongly oscillating at a high level [6][7]. Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,865 yuan/ton, up 1.65%. The LME closed at $2888 per ton, up 0.8%. The aluminum ingot inventory was flat, and the consumption in the off - season showed resilience. With copper prices hitting a new high, aluminum prices are expected to be strong [8][9]. Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2677 yuan/ton, down 1.51%. A Shanxi alumina enterprise will start maintenance, reducing the daily output by about 2000 tons. The fundamentals of alumina are still bearish, but local production cuts may provide temporary support [10]. Cast Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 21,055 yuan/ton, up 1.54%. The end - of - year order rush and tight raw materials support the price. Cast aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly [11]. Zinc - On Monday, the price of the main contract of Shanghai zinc rose with increased positions, and LME zinc strengthened. The supply pressure has been continuously relieved, with the LME0 - 3 premium soaring and processing fees dropping significantly. The production in November was lower than expected, and it is expected to decrease in December. Short - term zinc prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly, but the upside is limited [12][13]. Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated narrowly during the day and opened slightly higher at night, and LME lead rebounded. The supply in December is expected to decrease, and the demand for lead - acid batteries has improved marginally. Lead prices are expected to repair strongly [14][15]. Tin - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai tin rose and then fell during the day and oscillated horizontally at night, and LME tin first declined and then rebounded. The production in November was lower than expected, and it is expected to increase in December. The potential supply disruption in Congo due to the conflict and the uncertainty of the Fed's leadership have an impact on tin prices. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [16]. Industrial Silicon - On Monday, industrial silicon oscillated narrowly. The supply side is contracting, with Xinjiang maintaining a high operating rate and the southwest region's operating rate dropping due to the dry season. The demand side shows mixed performance. The supply and demand are generally balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [17][18]. Steel Products - On Monday, steel futures oscillated and rebounded. The real - estate supply in November increased slightly. The overall supply - demand drive is weak, and the inventory reduction provides support. Steel prices are expected to oscillate, and short - term attention should be paid to the impact of capital contract switching [19]. Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures oscillated and rebounded. The overseas supply is at a high level, and the demand from steel mills is weak. Iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure to oscillate [20]. Coking Coal and Coke - On Monday, coking coal and coke futures rebounded. The upstream supply is stable, but the downstream demand is weak. The coking enterprises' inventory is increasing, and the demand for blast furnace raw materials is poor. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and short - term attention should be paid to the rhythm of contract switching [21][22]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the bean meal 01 contract closed down 0.36%, and the rapeseed meal 01 contract closed down 1.46%. Brazilian soybean planting is progressing well, and the domestic oil mill's soybean and bean meal inventories have increased. The coastal oil mills' rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories are almost depleted. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [23][24]. Palm Oil - On Monday, the palm oil 01 contract closed up 0.75%. In November, Malaysian palm oil production decreased, and export demand remained weak, with an expected increase in inventory. Domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly. It is expected to oscillate within a range [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is facing renewed selling pressure due to macroeconomic headwinds and negative industry news, leading to significant declines in major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum [1][3]. Macroeconomic Factors - The primary concern for the market is the tightening of global liquidity, with indications from the Bank of Japan about potential interest rate hikes, causing Japanese two-year government bond yields to exceed 1% for the first time since 2008 [4]. - The shift in macroeconomic conditions is expected to lead to a repricing of global risk assets, with Bitcoin being particularly affected due to its high beta value [4]. - Upcoming key economic data from the U.S. may provide insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, adding to the uncertainty surrounding global interest rates [4]. Industry-Specific Challenges - The cryptocurrency industry is facing a series of negative developments that are eroding investor confidence, including comments from the CEO of Strategy Inc. about potentially selling Bitcoin if the company's mNAV ratio falls below zero [5]. - The largest stablecoin, USDT, has also come under scrutiny, with S&P Global Ratings downgrading its stability assessment, raising concerns about potential collateral shortfalls due to declining Bitcoin values [5]. - A series of bearish developments over the weekend has further pressured the cryptocurrency market [5]. Market Dynamics and Leverage - The severity of the recent downturn is closely linked to the market's leverage structure, where macro-driven declines have triggered stop-loss orders and forced liquidations of long positions in perpetual contracts [6]. - The forced liquidation of leveraged positions during low liquidity periods has led to sharp declines in prices, creating a cycle of further selling pressure [6]. Bitcoin's Market Behavior - Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a macro asset sensitive to interest rate expectations and global liquidity, rather than an independent "digital gold" [7]. - As long as the prevailing market narrative suggests rising yields and more attractive returns on safe assets, Bitcoin will continue to face headwinds and be traded as a high-risk asset [7].

Economic Performance - High-frequency data indicates a slight economic slowdown in November, consistent with expectations[2] - Retail sales during the "Double 11" shopping festival showed only a modest increase, while automobile sales experienced a slowdown[2] - Industrial demand remains differentiated, with a weak recovery in rebar demand and a decline in asphalt demand[2] Real Estate Market - As of November 21, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 15.63% month-on-month, but year-on-year growth remains negative at -31.18%[11] - The average land transaction price in November was 3278.17 yuan/square meter, down 1.71% from October and down 78.21% year-on-year[14] Industrial Demand - Rebar production saw a slight recovery with an average operating rate of 42.19%, up 0.76 percentage points from October but down from September[17] - Asphalt production showed a significant decline, with an average operating rate of 27.83%, down 5.97 percentage points from October[21] Export Trends - Exports from South Korea increased by 8.2% year-on-year in the first 20 days of November, while China's exports are expected to decline slightly[31] - The maritime Silk Road index weakened, indicating a decrease in shipping activity to the U.S.[31] Monetary Policy Outlook - Expectations for a December interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan have increased, with over half of economists predicting a 25 basis point increase[3] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December surged to approximately 70% following recent comments from officials[3]