Economic Performance - High-frequency data indicates a slight economic slowdown in November, consistent with expectations[2] - Retail sales during the "Double 11" shopping festival showed only a modest increase, while automobile sales experienced a slowdown[2] - Industrial demand remains differentiated, with a weak recovery in rebar demand and a decline in asphalt demand[2] Real Estate Market - As of November 21, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 15.63% month-on-month, but year-on-year growth remains negative at -31.18%[11] - The average land transaction price in November was 3278.17 yuan/square meter, down 1.71% from October and down 78.21% year-on-year[14] Industrial Demand - Rebar production saw a slight recovery with an average operating rate of 42.19%, up 0.76 percentage points from October but down from September[17] - Asphalt production showed a significant decline, with an average operating rate of 27.83%, down 5.97 percentage points from October[21] Export Trends - Exports from South Korea increased by 8.2% year-on-year in the first 20 days of November, while China's exports are expected to decline slightly[31] - The maritime Silk Road index weakened, indicating a decrease in shipping activity to the U.S.[31] Monetary Policy Outlook - Expectations for a December interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan have increased, with over half of economists predicting a 25 basis point increase[3] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December surged to approximately 70% following recent comments from officials[3]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant pullback last week, with major indices declining, particularly the North Securities 50 and Wind Micro Stock Index, which fell by 9.04% and 7.8% respectively, indicating substantial selling pressure on small-cap and micro-cap stocks [1] - The ChiNext Index dropped over 6%, reflecting a notable retreat in growth sectors, while the Shanghai 50 and Dividend Index saw relatively smaller declines of 2.72% and 2.93% respectively, highlighting a structural divergence in the market [1] - All Wind primary industry indices fell last week, with an average decline of approximately 4.5%, driven by negative macro sentiment, particularly in materials, healthcare, and industrial sectors, which all saw declines exceeding 6.6% [1][11] Fund Issuance and Performance - A total of 35 funds were issued last week, including 16 equity funds, 10 mixed funds, 4 bond funds, 1 QDII fund, 1 REITs fund, and 3 FOF funds, with a total issuance of 36.035 billion units [15] - The Wind All Fund Index fell by 2.62% last week, with ordinary equity fund indices down by 5.13% and mixed equity fund indices down by 4.99% [6][15] Global Market Context - Global equity markets showed weakness, with the S&P 500 down 1.95%, the Dow Jones down 1.91%, and the Nasdaq down 2.74%. Asian markets also faced pressure, with the Nikkei 225 down 3.48% and the Hang Seng Index leading global declines at 5.09% [3] - Commodity markets mostly declined, with coking coal experiencing a significant drop of 8.16%, while crude oil fell by 3.41% and gold saw a slight decrease of 0.77% [3] Domestic Bond Market - The bond market exhibited cautious sentiment, with the China Securities Convertible Bond Index declining by 1.78%. The 10-year government bond futures saw a slight increase of 0.04%, while the 30-year main contract fell by 0.43% [12]

Group 1: Shipbuilding Sector Performance - The A-share shipbuilding sector experienced a notable increase of 2.98% on November 21, outperforming all other sectors in the A-share market [1] - The shipbuilding sector recorded a cumulative increase of over 12% for the week, significantly surpassing the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index during the same period [1] - Individual stocks such as Jianglong Shipbuilding saw a price increase of 14.5%, while Tianhai Defense, China Shipbuilding Defense, and Guorui Technology all rose by over 5% [1] Group 2: A-share Market Overview - Major A-share indices closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3834 points, down 2.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 12538 points, down 3.41%, and the ChiNext Index at 2920 points, down 4.02% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 196.57 billion RMB, an increase of about 25.75 billion RMB compared to the previous trading day [1] Group 3: External Factors Influencing Market - The A-share market faced significant adjustments primarily due to external factors, including a decline in U.S. stocks [1] - Recent cooling expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, along with volatility in the Japanese bond market, have heightened investor concerns about tightening global liquidity, leading to increased selling pressure on global risk assets [1] - Despite short-term adjustments, the core logic supporting the mid-term upward trend of the A-share market remains intact [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has significantly cooled, with the prices of finished steel products slightly adjusting downwards. The market sentiment has clearly cooled, and the fundamentals of steel are weak. The futures prices may gradually return to the real - trading logic. Although the current static fundamental contradictions are not prominent, the Politburo meeting did not provide new positive signals for the real estate market, and the policy is expected to continue the previous tone of "strictly controlling increments." Attention should be paid to the repair rhythm of terminal actual demand and the support of the cost side for the prices of finished steel products [10][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost Side**: The hot - rolled coil's on - paper profit is 195 yuan/ton, and the spot price is about 99 yuan/ton higher than the futures price, with a significant decline in valuation [7] - **Supply Side**: This week, the output of hot - rolled coils was 3.23 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 53,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 1.6% compared to the same week last year, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 0.4%. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4071 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,200 tons, and the pig iron output remained at a relatively high level [7] - **Demand Side**: This week, the consumption of hot - rolled coils was 3.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 48,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 0.4% compared to the same week last year, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.3%. The demand increased slightly, and the demand level remained neutral [8] - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of hot - rolled coils was 3.4516 million tons, with a slight accumulation [9] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [12] 3.2 Periodic and Spot Market - The document provides various charts related to the spot price of hot - rolled Q235B 4.75mm, regional price differences, basis of different contracts, futures contract price differences, and price differences between hot - rolled coils and other products, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of Minmetals Futures [18][22][24] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: Charts show the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, as well as the profits of blast furnace and electric furnace for rebar [61][63] - **Inventory**: Charts present the total inventory, social inventory, and steel mill inventory of hot - rolled, cold - rolled, and coated plates [65][69][70] 3.4 Cost Side - Charts display the futures closing prices of iron ore and coke, the price of scrap steel, daily average pig iron output, iron - making cost, and the price of billets [82][84][87] 3.5 Supply Side - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Charts show the weekly output, cumulative year - on - year output, and capacity utilization rate of 37 sample enterprises, as well as the output in different regions [96][98][99] - **Cold - Rolled Coils**: Charts present the weekly output, cumulative year - on - year output, and capacity utilization rate of 29 sample enterprises, as well as the output in different regions [105][108][109] - **Coated Plates**: Charts show the weekly output and capacity utilization rate of color - coated and galvanized plates [110][111] 3.6 Demand Side - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: This week, the consumption of hot - rolled coils was 3.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 48,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 0.4% compared to the same week last year, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.3%. Charts also show the apparent consumption and its cumulative year - on - year change [8][114][115] - **Related Industries**: Charts display the production and sales data of industries such as automobiles, tractors, home appliances, and metal containers, which are related to the demand for steel products [117][123][124]