Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of HKD 65.4, down from the previous HKD 67.8 [1][4][14]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's total revenue for Q2 2025 reached RMB 116 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.2%. Adjusted net profit grew by 75.4% to RMB 10.8 billion [1][4]. - The overall gross margin for the group was 22.5%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year but down 0.3 percentage points from Q1 2025 [1]. - The automotive business showed strong performance with a gross margin of 26.4%, benefiting from scale effects and a higher proportion of high-end model deliveries [2][3]. Summary by Sections Automotive Business - Q2 2025 saw a record delivery of 81,302 vehicles, with revenue increasing by 14% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 20.6 billion. The gross margin for the automotive segment improved significantly from 15.4% to 26.4% year-on-year [2]. - The company is optimistic about the automotive business's profitability, especially with its high-end strategy, and anticipates potential profitability in upcoming quarters [2][3]. Smartphone/IoT/Internet Business - The smartphone segment faced challenges, with revenue declining by 2.1% year-on-year to RMB 45.5 billion and a gross margin contraction to 11.5% [3]. - IoT revenue grew by 44.7% year-on-year to RMB 38.7 billion, driven by high-value smart home appliances, maintaining a strong gross margin of 22.5% [3]. - Internet services continued to show stable growth, with a 10.1% year-on-year revenue increase to RMB 9.1 billion and a high gross margin of 75.4% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to weak global smartphone demand, revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 were adjusted downwards by 2.2%, 0.5%, and 0.2%, respectively. However, net profit forecasts were raised by 9.5%, 4.3%, and 7.8% for the same period [4]. - The target price of HKD 65.4 corresponds to a 30x PE ratio for 2026, reflecting the company's strong IoT and AI ecosystem value [4][14]. Financial Metrics - The report projects a revenue increase to RMB 479.9 billion in 2025, with a net profit of RMB 44.3 billion, representing a 62.2% year-on-year growth [9][12]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 22.7% in 2026, with a projected net profit margin of 9.1% [12][13].

证券研究报告 港股通 小米集团-W (1810 HK) 2Q25 业绩预览：关注"反内卷"的影响 2025 年 8 月 07 日│中国香港 消费电子 我们预计小米 2Q25 收入同比增长 29%，毛利率环比下降 0.3pp，归属于母 公司净利润同比增长 56%。其中包含手机，IoT 和互联网业务在内的原有主 业收入同比增长 14%，汽车业务实现 204 亿收入，环比增长 10%。展望全 年：1）汽车。6 月 YU7 发布后大定数据亮眼，产能仍然是收入的主要瓶颈。 此外，近期汽车行业"反内卷"趋势下，看好汽车行业高质量发展以及行业 参与者长期盈利能力提升；2）手机。海外存储原厂供应减少，存储价格呈 现上涨趋势，建议关注存储价格上涨对手机毛利率的影响。给予公司目标价 67.8 港币（前值：71.2 港币），包含非汽车（44.3 港币），汽车（23.5 港 币）。维持"买入"。 汽车业务：看好"反内卷"长期提升汽车业务盈利能力 我们预计 2Q25 小米汽车出货约 8.1 万台，ASP 环比有所提升，实现收入 204 亿人民币，环比提升 10%，随着出货量爬坡，我们预计毛利率环比提 升 0.5pp 至 23.7%。展 ...

证券研究报告 小米集团-W (1810 HK) 港股通 1Q25 预览：关注 AI、汽车等新动能 | 华泰研究 | | | 动态点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 02 日│中国香港 | 消费电子 | 我们预计小米 1Q25 收入同比增长 44%，毛利率环比提升 0.9pp，归属于母 公司净利润同比增长 47%。其中包含手机，IoT 和互联网业务在内的原有主 业收入同比增长 20%，汽车业务实现 182 亿收入，环比增长 9%。后续关注 公司业务三大影响因素：1）汽车。近期公司处于宣传真空期，未来随着宣 传正常化以及 YU7 发布，周度订单量或企稳；2）关税。关税直接影响有限， 关注苹果业绩会对于关税应对措施的表述；3）AI。4/30 小米开源首个推理 大模型，看好公司模型能力增厚"人车家"全品类生态协同效应。展望全年， 看好 SUV 推动收入快速增长，手机毛利率回升、汽车减亏叠加大家电业务 扩张或推动全年 Non-GAAP 利润 52%增长。维持公司目标价 71.2 港币， 包含手机 xAIoT（44 港币），汽车（27.2 港币）。维持"买入"。 ...