证监许可 【2011】1292号 52.10 -1.2 -2.36% 江苏 50.88 需求: (周慶) 日均出库量 单位 1月2日 涨跌幅 12月26日 地区 旅跌 中国 5.65 5.83 -0.18 -3% 山东 万/立方米 2.89 2.79 0.10 4% 2.17 -0.27 江苏 2.44 -11% 原木主要港口库存(万方) 原木日均出库量(万方) 750 650 550 420 350 250 150 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/111/112/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/110/111/112/11/1 =2022 -- 2023 = -2024 = 2025 =2022 == 2023 = =2024 @ 2025 辐射松4米中A: CFR价(美元/JAS立方米) 辐射松3.8中A现货价(元/立方米) 220 - 2020 =2022 2021 860 2024 2055 · 2023 180 810 760 710 80 4/4 6/4 8/4 10/4 12/4 2/4 4/4 6/4 8/4 ...

然而，回看2025年的俄罗斯木材行业，在卢布走强、国际市场需求疲软、运输成本已高企的背景下，高额关税无疑是在俄材价格上再"加码"，不仅使其在国 际市场上的竞争力进一步下降，还可能导致出口订单继续流失，尤其是对价格敏感的亚洲市场。 2026年新年前夕，克里姆林宫颁布行政令，将针叶木锯材、珍贵阔叶方木、锯材的高额出口关税再度延期至2028年12月31日。官方声明称，此举旨在延续 对"以锯材为名、行原木出口之实"的变相贸易限制，并确保优先保障国内深加工企业的原料供给。 这一相关木材出口关税自2022年起生效，具体标准为： 针叶锯材税率10%，且每立方米不低于13欧元； 橡木锯材税率10%，每立方米不低于15欧元； 山毛榉与白蜡锯材税率10%，每立方米不低于50欧元。 亦有业内人士分析，延长高额出口关税对于俄罗斯木材行业是一把"双刃剑"：短期而言，需求端承压叠加关税成本，可能导致缺乏深加工能力的中小型企业 被加速淘汰，行业景气度进一步回落；但长期来看，这或许将成为俄罗斯推动木材行业强制性转型升级的关键政策工具。 不过，这一政策最终的实施成效，在一定程度上将取决于全球市场，特别是亚太市场对俄罗斯高附加值林产品的接受度与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chilean forestry sector views the U.S. tariff increase on timber imports as a potential disaster for the industry, particularly affecting small and medium-sized enterprises [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Tariff Details - Starting from October 14, the U.S. will impose a 10% tariff on imported softwood and lumber, and a 25% tariff on wood products [1] - If no new agreement is reached by the Chilean government with the U.S., these tariffs could escalate to 30% and 50% respectively by January 2026 [1] Impact on Chilean Forestry Sector - The U.S. is a significant export market for Chilean timber, and the high tariffs are expected to severely impact the country's forestry industry [1] - Small and medium-sized enterprises within the sector are particularly vulnerable and may struggle to cope with the financial burden imposed by these tariffs [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The report indicates that the log market is experiencing basis repair and wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength of logs is rated as 1, suggesting a neutral - to - slightly positive outlook [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price on June 18 was 795.5 with a daily increase of 0.3% and a weekly increase of 4.0%. The trading volume decreased by 32.0% daily but increased by 116% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 2.8% daily and increased by 5% weekly. Similar data is presented for 2509 and 2511 contracts, showing different price, volume, and open - interest trends [1]. - **Basis**: The basis between spot and futures contracts, as well as between different futures contracts, showed significant changes. For example, the basis of spot - 2507 decreased by 14.2% daily and increased by 82% weekly [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Different types of logs in various regions had different price changes. For instance, the price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market increased by 1.4% both daily and weekly, while the price of 5.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in the Jiangsu market decreased by 2.4% weekly [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From January to May, the national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The log trend intensity is 1, within the range of [-2, 2], indicating a neutral - to - slightly positive view [3].