Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - From January 5th to January 11th, 2026, 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 1 ship from last week, a week-on-week increase of 8%. The total arrival volume is about 479,000 cubic meters, an increase of 70,500 cubic meters from last week, a week-on-week increase of 17% [3] - The 01 contract continues to have a deep discount for delivery, and the buyer's willingness to take delivery remains poor. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and the expectation of a decrease in later shipments. However, demand remains weak and the upside is limited. Overall, there is a lack of contradictions, with limited upward and downward drivers, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures and Spot Prices - On January 8th, the price of log 2601 was 742.0, unchanged from the previous day; log 2603 was 778.5, down 3.5 from the previous day, a decline of 0.45%; log 2605 was 789.0, down 1.5 from the previous day, a decline of 0.19%; log 2607 was 800.5, down 1.5 from the previous day, a decline of 0.19% [1] - The basis of the main contract was -38.5 on January 8th, up 3.5 from the previous day [1] - Spot prices of various types of logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on January 8th [1] - The latest round of foreign market quotes for 4-meter medium A radiata pine was 110 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, down 2 US dollars; the CFR price of 11.8-meter spruce remained unchanged at 124 euros per JAS cubic meter [1] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On January 9th, the RMB to US dollar exchange rate was 6.981, down 0.002 from the previous day, a decline of 0%; the import theoretical cost was 756.29 yuan, down 13.52 yuan from the previous day, a decline of 2% [1] Supply: Monthly - As of November 30th, the shipping volume from the port was 1.914 million cubic meters, an increase of 22,000 cubic meters from October 31st, an increase of 1.16% [1] - The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 52 on November 30th, an increase of 3 from the previous month, an increase of 6.12% [1] Inventory: Main Port Inventory - As of January 2nd, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 2.67 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters from the previous week, an increase of 5.12%. Among them, the inventory in Shandong was 1.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 98,000 cubic meters from the previous week, an increase of 5.29% [1][3] Demand - As of January 2nd, the daily average outbound volume of logs in China was 56,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 18,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a decrease of 3%. In Shandong, it was 28,900 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters from the previous week, an increase of 4%; in Jiangsu, it was 21,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 27,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a decrease of 11% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Kremlin has extended high export tariffs on coniferous and hardwood lumber until December 31, 2028, aiming to restrict the export of raw timber under the guise of lumber and to ensure domestic processing industries have priority access to raw materials [1]. Group 1: Export Tariffs - The export tariffs, effective since 2022, are set at 10% for coniferous lumber with a minimum of €13 per cubic meter, 10% for oak lumber with a minimum of €15 per cubic meter, and 10% for beech and ash lumber with a minimum of €50 per cubic meter [3]. - The extension of these tariffs is expected to increase import costs for Chinese importers of Russian timber, further compressing already thin profit margins [5]. Group 2: Market Impact - In 2025, the Russian timber industry faced challenges due to a strong ruble, weak international demand, and high transportation costs, which have diminished the competitiveness of Russian timber in international markets [5]. - The bilateral timber trade between China and Russia has seen an 8.2% year-on-year decline in the first eleven months of 2025, with China accounting for approximately 60% of Russia's timber exports [5]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The high export tariffs are viewed as a "double-edged sword" for the Russian timber industry; while they may pressure demand and accelerate the elimination of smaller firms lacking processing capabilities, they could also serve as a critical policy tool for driving mandatory transformation and upgrading within the industry [7]. - The effectiveness of this policy will largely depend on the global market's acceptance and willingness to pay a premium for high-value forest products from Russia, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Chilean forestry sector views the U.S. tariff increase on timber imports as a potential disaster for the industry, particularly affecting small and medium-sized enterprises [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Tariff Details - Starting from October 14, the U.S. will impose a 10% tariff on imported softwood and lumber, and a 25% tariff on wood products [1] - If no new agreement is reached by the Chilean government with the U.S., these tariffs could escalate to 30% and 50% respectively by January 2026 [1] Impact on Chilean Forestry Sector - The U.S. is a significant export market for Chilean timber, and the high tariffs are expected to severely impact the country's forestry industry [1] - Small and medium-sized enterprises within the sector are particularly vulnerable and may struggle to cope with the financial burden imposed by these tariffs [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The report indicates that the log market is experiencing basis repair and wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength of logs is rated as 1, suggesting a neutral - to - slightly positive outlook [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price on June 18 was 795.5 with a daily increase of 0.3% and a weekly increase of 4.0%. The trading volume decreased by 32.0% daily but increased by 116% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 2.8% daily and increased by 5% weekly. Similar data is presented for 2509 and 2511 contracts, showing different price, volume, and open - interest trends [1]. - **Basis**: The basis between spot and futures contracts, as well as between different futures contracts, showed significant changes. For example, the basis of spot - 2507 decreased by 14.2% daily and increased by 82% weekly [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Different types of logs in various regions had different price changes. For instance, the price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market increased by 1.4% both daily and weekly, while the price of 5.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in the Jiangsu market decreased by 2.4% weekly [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From January to May, the national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The log trend intensity is 1, within the range of [-2, 2], indicating a neutral - to - slightly positive view [3].