Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the market is affected by geopolitical turmoil in the crude oil market, the entry of agricultural film demand into the peak season (but still weaker than in previous years), and a moderately high industrial inventory. For PP, the market is also influenced by geopolitical factors in the crude oil market, improved demand in downstream sectors such as pipes and plastic weaving, and a moderately high industrial inventory [4][7]. - The main driving factors for both LLDPE and PP include cost support due to geopolitical unrest and the gradual entry into the demand peak season. However, the demand is still weaker compared to the same period in previous years [5][8]. - The main logical drivers are cost - demand factors and the promotion of domestic macro - policies, while the main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [6][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. China's exports in August were $321.81 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, but a decline compared to July. The crude oil price is volatile, and recent geopolitical unrest in the Middle East has occurred. The demand for agricultural films is gradually entering the peak season, but overall demand is still weaker than in previous years, while the demand for other packaging films has rebounded. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7180 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 52, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.7%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The PE comprehensive inventory is 545,000 tons (+35,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main positions**: The net long positions of the LLDPE main contract are increasing, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to show a volatile trend today [4]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in August, manufacturing sentiment improved, exports increased year - on - year but declined compared to July, and the crude oil price was volatile with geopolitical unrest. The downstream demand is gradually entering the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving has increased. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6850 (-130), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 116, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.7%, indicating a bearish signal [7]. - **Inventory**: The PP comprehensive inventory is 575,000 tons (-8,000 tons), which is bearish [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Main positions**: The net short positions of the PP main contract are decreasing, but still showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to show a volatile trend today [7]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7180 (unchanged), the price of the 01 contract is 7232 (+63), the basis is - 52 (-63), the number of warehouse receipts is 12,736 (+211), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 545,000 tons (unchanged), and the PE social inventory is 547,000 tons (-14,000 tons) [10]. - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6850 (-130), the price of the 01 contract is 6966 (+53), the basis is - 116 (-183), the number of warehouse receipts is 13,706 (unchanged), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 575,000 tons (unchanged), and the PP social inventory is 295,000 tons (unchanged) [10]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. For example, in 2018, the import dependence was 46.3%, and in 2024, it dropped to 32.9% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also increased, and the import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [17].

Report Title - Polyolefin Morning Report, dated September 4, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The overall fundamentals are neutral, with cost support and anti - involution policies as positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor. The main influencing factors are cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies, and the main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [4][7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. In July, exports were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being formulated, expected to be introduced in September. The start - up of agricultural film enterprises has slightly increased, but overall demand is still weaker than in previous years. Other packaging films have seen increased demand due to the approaching peak season. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7230 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 17, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.2%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 509,000 tons (+23,000 tons), which is neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract has turned long, showing a bullish trend [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. The demand for agricultural films has recovered but is still weaker than in previous years. The industrial inventory is neutral [4] - **Positive Factors**: Cost support and anti - involution policies [6] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - data. New PP production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand in industries such as pipes and plastic weaving has improved as the peak season approaches. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6950 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [8] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 4, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.1%, which is neutral [8] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 582,000 tons (+43,000 tons), showing a bearish trend [8] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [8] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the PP main contract has decreased but is still long, showing a bullish trend [8] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. New production capacity has been put into operation recently, downstream demand has improved, and the industrial inventory is neutral [8] - **Positive Factors**: Cost support and anti - involution policies [9] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand [9] Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 43.195 million tons [16] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.906 million tons [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to trend sideways today. The "anti-involution" policy-driven price increases have subsided, crude oil prices are falling, and while downstream demand for PP is slightly improving, the overall demand for LLDPE's agricultural film is below expectations, with neutral industrial inventories [4][7]. Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, in contraction for four consecutive months. Caixin's July manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5, also in contraction. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. The "anti-involution" policy improved commodity expectations, but after the sentiment cooled, it reverted to fundamentals. Short-term oil prices are oscillating downward. On the supply and demand side, the overall demand for agricultural film is below expectations, and the film production start-up rate is low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7,250 (-30), with overall neutral fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -101, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.4%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 505,000 tons (-71,000), considered neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a neutral stance [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, suggesting a bearish outlook [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is oscillating. After the "anti-involution" policy-driven price increase subsided, crude oil prices fell, and the demand for agricultural film was below expectations. With neutral industrial inventories, the PE market is expected to trend sideways today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a positive factor, while weak demand and falling crude oil prices are negative factors. The main logic is driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro policies [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in July, China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs were in contraction. Exports increased year-on-year. The "anti-involution" policy's impact faded. Short-term oil prices are falling. On the supply and demand side, downstream industries are gradually entering the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is slightly improving. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7,100 (unchanged), with overall neutral fundamentals [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 16, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.2%, considered neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 588,000 tons (+1,000), indicating a bearish signal [7]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a neutral stance [7]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, suggesting a bearish outlook [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is oscillating. After the "anti-involution" policy-driven price increase subsided, crude oil prices fell, while downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is slightly improving. With neutral industrial inventories, the PP market is expected to trend sideways today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a positive factor, while weak demand and falling crude oil prices are negative factors. The main logic is driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro policies [9]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7,250 (-30), the 01 contract price is 7,351 (+8), the basis is -101 (-38), the warehouse receipt quantity is 7,345 (unchanged), and the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 505,000 tons (unchanged) [10]. - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 7,100 (unchanged), the 01 contract price is 7,084 (-1), the basis is 16 (+1), the warehouse receipt quantity is 12,860 (unchanged), and the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 588,000 tons (unchanged) [10]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also increased. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: May 16, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. For LLDPE, the market is influenced by factors such as the end of the agricultural film season, the rush - work wave of foreign - trade enterprises due to tariff adjustments, and a neutral - to - high inventory in the industry chain. For PP, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and there is also a rush - work wave of foreign - trade enterprises [4][6] Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In April, the official PMI was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points from March, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from March. The central bank signaled "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" on April 28, and on May 12, China announced important consensus from the Sino - US talks and the suspension or cancellation of tariffs since April. It is the off - season for agricultural films, and more factories are shutting down. With tariff adjustments, there is a rush - work wave among foreign - trade enterprises. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7400 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 61, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.8%, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 636,000 tons (+169,000 tons), which is neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish sign [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. Considering the Sino - US talks and other factors, it is predicted that PE will fluctuate today [4] - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Bullish factors include a strong basis and better - than - expected Sino - US talks; bearish factors include new capacity launches and weak crude oil [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in April, the official PMI was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points from March, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from March. The central bank's signal and the Sino - US talks' results are the same. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and there is a rush - work wave among foreign - trade enterprises after tariff adjustments. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7350 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 157, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.2%, showing a bullish sign [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 676,000 tons (+112,000 tons), which is neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral signal [6] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. Given the Sino - US talks and other factors, it is predicted that PP will fluctuate today [6] - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Bullish factors include a strong basis and better - than - expected Sino - US talks; bearish factors include weak crude oil [7] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7400 (unchanged), the price of the 09 contract is 7339 (up 152), the basis is 61 (down 152), the LLDPE import price is 822 (unchanged), and the import - converted price is 7276 (unchanged). The LLDPE warehouse receipt quantity is 4989 (unchanged), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 584,000 tons (down 52,000 tons), and the PE social inventory is 618,000 tons (up 6,000 tons) [8] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 7350 (unchanged), the price of the 09 contract is 7193 (up 119), the basis is 157 (down 119), the PP import price is 845 (unchanged), and the import - converted price is 7475 (unchanged). The PP warehouse receipt quantity is 4356 (up 288), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 604,000 tons (down 72,000 tons), and the PP social inventory is 273,000 tons (up 13,000 tons) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also generally increased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]