交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-9-16 • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，8月份，官方PMI为49.4，比上月上升0.1个百分点，财新PMI50.4，较 前月上升0.6个百分点，制造业景气度有所改善。8 月以美元计价的中国出口额为3218.1 亿美元， 同比增长4.4%，较 7 月有所回落。原油方面，原油价格震荡，近日以色列袭击卡塔尔首都引发 中东地缘政治再次动荡，美欧等欲对俄油实施二级制裁。供需端，下游逐渐转向旺季，管材、塑 编等需求均有上升。当前PP交割品现货价6850（-130），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： PP 2601合约基差-116，升贴水比例-1.7%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PP综合库存57.5万吨（-0.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： PP主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：PP主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：PP主力合约盘面震荡，原油地缘政治动荡，下游管材、塑编等需求改善，产业库存 中性偏高，预计PP今日走势震荡 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z001 ...

Report Title - Polyolefin Morning Report, dated September 4, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The overall fundamentals are neutral, with cost support and anti - involution policies as positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor. The main influencing factors are cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies, and the main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [4][7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. In July, exports were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being formulated, expected to be introduced in September. The start - up of agricultural film enterprises has slightly increased, but overall demand is still weaker than in previous years. Other packaging films have seen increased demand due to the approaching peak season. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7230 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 17, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.2%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 509,000 tons (+23,000 tons), which is neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract has turned long, showing a bullish trend [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. The demand for agricultural films has recovered but is still weaker than in previous years. The industrial inventory is neutral [4] - **Positive Factors**: Cost support and anti - involution policies [6] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - data. New PP production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand in industries such as pipes and plastic weaving has improved as the peak season approaches. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6950 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [8] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 4, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.1%, which is neutral [8] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 582,000 tons (+43,000 tons), showing a bearish trend [8] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [8] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the PP main contract has decreased but is still long, showing a bullish trend [8] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. New production capacity has been put into operation recently, downstream demand has improved, and the industrial inventory is neutral [8] - **Positive Factors**: Cost support and anti - involution policies [9] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand [9] Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 43.195 million tons [16] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.906 million tons [18]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-8-18 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 利空 • 1、需求偏弱 • 2、原油回落 • 主要逻辑：成本需求，国内宏观政策推动 • 主要风险点：原油大幅波动、国际政策博弈 • PP概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，7 月中国官方制造业 PMI 为 49.3%，环比降 0.4 个百分点，连续 4 个月收缩，财新7月制造业 PMI 从 50.4 降至 49.5，同样收缩，7 月出口 3217.8 亿美元，同 比增 7.2%。"反内卷"政策推动商品预期改善，但情绪降温后回归基本面。短期油价震荡回落。 供需端，下游逐渐转向旺季，管材、塑编等需求小幅走好。当前PP交割品现货价7100（-0），基 本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： PP 2601合约基差16，升贴 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: May 16, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. For LLDPE, the market is influenced by factors such as the end of the agricultural film season, the rush - work wave of foreign - trade enterprises due to tariff adjustments, and a neutral - to - high inventory in the industry chain. For PP, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and there is also a rush - work wave of foreign - trade enterprises [4][6] Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In April, the official PMI was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points from March, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from March. The central bank signaled "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" on April 28, and on May 12, China announced important consensus from the Sino - US talks and the suspension or cancellation of tariffs since April. It is the off - season for agricultural films, and more factories are shutting down. With tariff adjustments, there is a rush - work wave among foreign - trade enterprises. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7400 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 61, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.8%, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 636,000 tons (+169,000 tons), which is neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish sign [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. Considering the Sino - US talks and other factors, it is predicted that PE will fluctuate today [4] - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Bullish factors include a strong basis and better - than - expected Sino - US talks; bearish factors include new capacity launches and weak crude oil [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in April, the official PMI was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points from March, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from March. The central bank's signal and the Sino - US talks' results are the same. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and there is a rush - work wave among foreign - trade enterprises after tariff adjustments. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7350 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 157, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.2%, showing a bullish sign [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 676,000 tons (+112,000 tons), which is neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral signal [6] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. Given the Sino - US talks and other factors, it is predicted that PP will fluctuate today [6] - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Bullish factors include a strong basis and better - than - expected Sino - US talks; bearish factors include weak crude oil [7] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7400 (unchanged), the price of the 09 contract is 7339 (up 152), the basis is 61 (down 152), the LLDPE import price is 822 (unchanged), and the import - converted price is 7276 (unchanged). The LLDPE warehouse receipt quantity is 4989 (unchanged), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 584,000 tons (down 52,000 tons), and the PE social inventory is 618,000 tons (up 6,000 tons) [8] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 7350 (unchanged), the price of the 09 contract is 7193 (up 119), the basis is 157 (down 119), the PP import price is 845 (unchanged), and the import - converted price is 7475 (unchanged). The PP warehouse receipt quantity is 4356 (up 288), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 604,000 tons (down 72,000 tons), and the PP social inventory is 273,000 tons (up 13,000 tons) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also generally increased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]