目录 LPG液化气周报：重点关注美伊谈判 研究员：赵若晨 期货从业证号：F03151390 投资咨询证号：Z0023496 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 | | | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 87/87/87 【策略】 单边：宽幅震荡。 套利：观望。 期权：观望。(观点仅供参考，不作为买卖依据) 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 本周液化气在前期一波下跌后区间震荡。海外市场来看，中东货源仍然持续偏紧，3月沙特CP价格再次上行，叠加伊 朗局势的不明朗，中东价格仍然居高不下。欧美方面，寒潮导致美国丙烷持续去库，前期价格在天然气的带领下驱动上 行，但供应充足。国内方面，供应端虽到港量偏少，但是炼厂外放气增加；需求端，燃烧需求仍在旺季，但化工需求方 面偏弱，由于进口价格较高，利润较差，PDH开工率较历史同期低位。 后市来看，炼厂外放气或有小幅下降， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of LPG changed from 2602 to 2603, with prices showing a weak trend. The previous concerns about restricted Iranian gas exports had significantly boosted the domestic market. However, President Trump's statement eased market panic, leading to a retracement of the geopolitical premium in oil prices. Based on the current fundamental data, both the domestic production volume and imports of LPG have slightly increased, while the chemical demand has slightly declined but still remains supported. Given the high costs for downstream chemical enterprises, the negative feedback from PDH may affect the operating rate. In the future, with an expected decline in PDH operating rate and no further escalation of geopolitical events, the futures price may face downward pressure [4]. - The trading strategy suggests a weak and volatile trend for single - sided trading, while recommending a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options trading [5]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - The main LPG contract changed from 2602 to 2603, and prices were weak. Geopolitical concerns initially boosted the market, but Trump's statement led to a retracement of the geopolitical premium in oil prices. Supply increased slightly, and chemical demand decreased slightly but still had support. High costs for downstream enterprises may affect PDH operating rates, and future prices may face pressure [4]. Strategy - Single - sided trading: Weak and volatile. Arbitrage: Wait - and - see. Options: Wait - and - see [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis Crude Oil - The previous oil price increase was a short - term rebound driven by geopolitical risks rather than a fundamental turnaround. After reaching a low in late 2025, oil prices had some upward momentum, driven by various geopolitical risks. The easing of Iranian geopolitical risks led to a retracement of the $3 - 5 per barrel premium. Globally, high inventories, stable OPEC+ and US production, and sufficient supply continue to limit the upside of oil prices [8]. Supply - The capacity utilization rate of major domestic refineries increased slightly by 0.26% to 77.24%, above the five - year average, with an expected increase in LPG supply. The capacity utilization rate of independent refineries decreased slightly by 0.32% to 61.01%, at a relatively low historical level. Overall LPG production increased slightly due to the increase in major refineries and the decrease in independent refineries [13]. Demand - Overall, chemical demand still has support, except for the low operating rate of alkylation. Attention should be paid to the PDH operating rate under continuous losses. The current PDH operating rate decreased by 2.54% to 73.07%, and is expected to decline further next week. The MTBE operating rate remains at a high level [15][17]. Inventory - Port arrivals increased slightly but remained at a low level. Ports continued to deplete inventory as imports were insufficient. Chemical demand decreased slightly, and downstream enterprises fulfilled previous low - price contracts, but overall arrivals were limited, resulting in some ports holding back inventory. Factory inventories also decreased slightly due to low supply and smooth sales. The inventory levels of tertiary stations varied by region, with stable low - level inventory in North China, a significant increase in South China, and stable inventory along the Yangtze River [20]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Price Data - Multiple price - related data charts are presented, including Brent, WTI, CP, FEI, and LPG prices, but no specific analysis is provided [24]. Spread Data - Multiple spread - related data charts are presented, such as the basis between different regions' LPG and the main contract, but no specific analysis is provided [27]. Disk Profit Data - Multiple profit - related data charts are presented, including import profits and PDH profits based on different price benchmarks, but no specific analysis is provided [30]. Spot Profit Data - Multiple profit - related data charts are presented, including import profits and PDH profits based on different price benchmarks, as well as etherification profit data, but no specific analysis is provided [34]. Supply Data - Data on the capacity utilization rates of major and independent refineries, LPG production volume, and crude oil processing volume are presented. A list of major domestic refinery maintenance plans and PDH device maintenance schedules is also provided [37][39][41]. Inventory Data - Data on the inventory levels of LPG ports and tertiary stations, as well as port capacity ratios, are presented [47].

Report Title LPG Liquefied Gas Weekly Report: Short - term Slight Support with Limited Upside Space [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main LPG contract changed to 2602. Due to the large previous decline, there was a slight repair, and the fundamentals this period also supported the price. The supply had no more increment, and although the combustion demand lacked highlights, the increase in PDH operation supported the price floor. With a small reduction in warehouse - receipt pressure, the 02 contract showed a strong trend this week. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the high costs of downstream chemical enterprises and the weak PP trend would cause PDH negative feedback to affect the operation [4]. - For trading strategies, maintain a strategy of shorting on rallies for single - side trading, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Analysis**: The main LPG contract 2602 had a slight upward repair due to previous decline and fundamental support. Supply had no new increments, combustion demand was lackluster, but PDH operation increase supported the price. However, PDH negative feedback may occur in the long - term [4]. - **Strategies**: - Single - side: Maintain a strategy of shorting on rallies [5]. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [5]. - Options: Stay on the sidelines [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks have many uncertainties. The expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict drives oil prices down, while the tense situation in Venezuela drives them up. - From the supply - demand perspective, the surplus pressure keeps oil prices oscillating at this year's low, lacking the momentum for a significant short - term rebound. - In the medium - term, as the surplus pressure cannot be disproven, oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly [10]. 3.2.2 Supply - **Refinery Production**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic major crude oil refineries remained flat this week, at a relatively low level this year but normal for the historical period due to seasonal maintenance. With the end of autumn maintenance, the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. The production utilization rate of domestic independent crude oil refineries slightly decreased by 0.01% to 64.33%, still at a high level this year and historically. The overall supply is expected to remain stable next week [13]. - **Imports**: The number of LPG ships arriving in China has rebounded. This week, the LPG arrival volume was 677,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 56,000 tons. The freight rates of three classic VLGC routes have increased slightly. Due to the high external prices, domestic PDH enterprises are in a theoretical loss, reducing their willingness to import significantly [16]. 3.2.3 Demand - The PDH operation rate increased by 2.13% to over 75%, at a high level this year. The MTBE operation rate slightly decreased by 0.85% but remained at a relatively high level. Although the combustion demand may be lackluster due to the expected warm winter, the chemical demand provides obvious support [19]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The LPG port inventory decreased this week due to a slight reduction in arrivals and an increase in chemical demand. The port storage capacity ratio also continued to decline, below the seasonal level. The in - plant inventory also slightly decreased. The storage capacity utilization rates of tertiary stations in different regions showed a differentiated trend, which may be due to uneven temperatures [20][23]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Price Data No specific analysis provided, only price - related charts are shown, including Brent, WTI, CP, FEI, and LPG main contract prices [27]. 3.3.2 Spread Data No specific analysis provided, only spread - related charts are shown, including the spread between different regions' civilian LPG and the main contract, and the seasonal basis of LPG [31]. 3.3.3 Disk Profit Data No specific analysis provided, only profit - related charts are shown, including import profit, PDH propylene profit, and PDH polypropylene profit [34]. 3.3.4 Spot Profit Data No specific analysis provided, only profit - related charts are shown, including import profit under different trade terms, PDH propylene profit, PDH polypropylene profit, and etherification gross profit [37]. 3.3.5 Supply Data - The data shows the seasonal trends of LPG production, crude oil processing volume, and the capacity utilization rates of major and independent refineries [40]. - There are also schedules for domestic major refinery device overhauls and PDH device overhauls of some enterprises [43][45]. 3.3.6 Inventory Data The data shows the seasonal trends of LPG port inventory, port storage capacity ratio, and the storage capacity utilization rate of tertiary stations [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the LPG market showed a volatile and weak trend, especially with a significant decline starting from the night session on Thursday. The decline was caused by multiple factors, including the weakening support from the cost side due to the weak international crude oil prices, the need to digest the warehouse receipt pressure, and the divergence between the domestic and international markets. The firmness of the international market led to high import costs for downstream chemical enterprises, continuous losses in PDH profits, a decrease in the operating rate, and a more pessimistic outlook for future operations. Additionally, the economic efficiency compared to naphtha cracking continued to deteriorate. On the other hand, the relatively warm winter in the Yangtze River Delta region and the high inventory levels at the third - tier stations indicated that the combustion demand did not exceed expectations and might even fall short [4]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies for single - side trading, wait and see for the 03/04 reverse spread opportunity in arbitrage trading, and watch for the put options opportunities of LPG2603 and LPG2604 [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Market Trend**: The LPG market was volatile and weak this week, with a significant decline starting from Thursday night. The decline was due to weak international crude oil prices, warehouse receipt pressure, and the divergence between domestic and international markets. The high international prices led to high import costs for downstream chemical enterprises, resulting in continuous losses in PDH profits, a decrease in the operating rate, and a poor outlook for future operations. The economic efficiency compared to naphtha cracking also deteriorated. The relatively warm winter in the Yangtze River Delta region and high third - tier station inventories suggested that the combustion demand was not as expected [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: - Single - side: Maintain a short - selling strategy on rallies as the market is expected to be volatile and weak. - Arbitrage: Wait and see for the 03/04 reverse spread opportunity. - Options: Watch for the put options opportunities of LPG2603 and LPG2604 [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil market continued to face supply pressure. Although OPEC+ suspended production increases in the first quarter of next year due to expectations of weak seasonal demand and sluggish global economic growth, the expectation of oversupply was difficult to change in the short term. The interception of a sanctioned oil tanker by the US military and the possible seizure of more oil tankers transporting Venezuelan oil affected oil prices. The Fed's interest rate cut this week also boosted the macro - financial market [7][8][10]. - **Supply from Refineries**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic major crude oil refineries rebounded by 0.45% to 75.11% after three consecutive weeks of decline. Although it was at a relatively low level this year, it was normal compared to historical levels due to seasonal maintenance. With the end of autumn maintenance, the capacity utilization rate of major refineries is expected to increase. The capacity utilization rate of independent refineries slightly decreased by 0.25% to 64.34%, but it was still at a relatively high level this year and in historical terms. The overall supply is expected to remain stable as there are no major load adjustment plans for Shandong refineries next week [13]. - **Supply from Imports**: According to Clarkson data, the number of LPG ships arriving at Chinese ports rebounded, and the weekly LPG arrival volume increased by 175,000 tons. The freight rates of VLGC ships on three classic routes increased slightly, which was reflected in the FEI price. However, due to the divergence between domestic and international markets and the continuous losses of domestic PDH enterprises, the willingness for large - scale imports was weak [16]. - **Inventory**: The LPG port inventory increased slightly this week due to a small increase in arrivals, and the port storage capacity ratio continued to be below the seasonal average. The LPG inventory in refineries also increased slightly. The inventory capacity utilization rates at third - tier stations showed regional divergence, with continuous decreases in North China, high levels in the Yangtze River Basin and South China, and neutral levels in other regions, possibly due to uneven temperatures [17][20]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Price Data**: The report presents various price - related data, including Brent and WTI crude oil prices, CP, C3, FEI C3 prices, LPG main contract prices, and their seasonal trends, as well as the economic efficiency comparison between CP/FEI and other related data [24]. - **Spread Data**: It shows the spread data between different regions' LPG prices (such as South China, East China, and Shandong), the basis seasonal trends of LPG in different regions, and the basis between the LPG main contract and the spot market [27]. - **Profit Data on the Futures Market**: The data includes import profits based on CP and FEI, PDH propylene and polypropylene profits based on CP and FEI, and the relationship between import prices, LPG futures prices, and profits [30]. - **Profit Data in the Spot Market**: It covers import profits based on FOB, CFR, PDH propylene and polypropylene profits based on FOB and CFR, and the profits of isomerization etherification and dehydrogenation etherification [34]. - **Supply Data**: The data shows the seasonal trends of LPG production, crude oil processing volume, the capacity utilization rates of major and independent refineries, and also provides the maintenance schedules of domestic major refineries and PDH plants [37][39][41]. - **Temperature Forecast**: The report provides the national temperature forecast, but no specific forecast content is given, only the data source is mentioned [43]. - **Inventory Data**: It presents the inventory capacity utilization rates of third - tier stations in different regions, the seasonal trends of LPG port inventory, and the seasonal trends of the port storage capacity ratio [47].