中远海能 摘要 中远海能 2025 年上半年归母净利润 18.69 亿元，同比下降 29%，但 二季度环比增长 64%，显示经营情况边际改善。外贸油运毛利同比下降， 但二季度环比增长；LNG 运输贡献利润同比增长。 公司积极更新船队，订购甲醇双燃料船和化学品船，预计 2027-2028 年交付，同时处置老旧船舶，并推进脱硫塔安装，提升船队环保性能。 中远海能 A 股定增项目获证监会批文，拟募资不超过 80 亿元，用于 VLCC、阿芙拉及 LNG 运输船建造，优化资产负债结构，中远海运集团 承诺认购 50%。 VLCC 运价受益于大西洋贸易活跃和中东出货集中，已达每日 5 万美元 水平。预计 OPEC+增产和季节性需求将支撑四季度运价，但需关注全 球石油供给增速超过需求增速的风险。 VLCC 供给端面临更新换代滞缓，老旧船舶占比高，新船交付量有限。 美国对伊朗石油制裁升级可能导致市场供给紧张，支撑行业基本面。 美国提高对印度输美商品关税，促使印度转向合规原油市场，增加合规 市场吨海里需求，利好 VLCC 和 Aframax 运输。公司已增加大西洋地 区大型成品油轮布局。 公司预计 2025 年下半年 VLCC ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company's revenue for 1H25 was 11.64 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.87 billion RMB, down 29.2% year-on-year. The decline in performance is primarily due to pressure on international oil transportation demand and a decrease in freight rates. However, there is an expectation for a seasonal demand boost in the second half of the year, which may lead to a recovery in freight rates [1][2] - The report suggests closely monitoring the US interest rate cut cycle and the recovery of domestic demand in China, which could benefit global oil transportation demand and support market freight rates [1] Summary by Sections Oil Transportation Business - The foreign trade oil transportation business generated revenue of 7.31 billion RMB in 1H25, down 5.7% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 1.29 billion RMB, a significant decline of 49.1%. The gross margin was 17.6%, down 15.1 percentage points year-on-year. The decline in freight rates was attributed to increased geopolitical uncertainties affecting production consumption and crude oil replenishment demand. The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) averaged a year-on-year decrease of 21.4% [2] - The domestic oil transportation segment reported revenue of 2.76 billion RMB, down 5.5% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 660 million RMB, down 6.8%. The gross margin was 24.0%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points. The LNG transportation business contributed a net profit of 420 million RMB, up 5.7% year-on-year, supported by the expansion of the LNG fleet and long-term contracts [3] Business Structure - The company has established a diversified business structure, operating in oil transportation, LNG, LPG, and chemical logistics. This diversification allows for resource sharing and strategic synergy among different business segments. As of June, the company ranked first globally in oil tanker fleet size and fourth in LNG fleet size [4] Profit Forecast and Target Price - The profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised downwards by 18%, 9%, and 9% to 4.43 billion RMB, 5.54 billion RMB, and 5.89 billion RMB, respectively. The target prices for A and H shares have been adjusted downwards by 18% and 3% to 13.20 RMB and 8.90 HKD, respectively, maintaining the "Buy" rating [5]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of approximately RMB 11.573 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of about 2.5% [1] - The profit attributable to equity holders was approximately RMB 1.894 billion, down about 29.0% year-on-year, with earnings per share at 39.71 cents [1] Revenue Breakdown - The foreign trade tanker fleet generated transportation revenue of RMB 7.29 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.3% in Q2 [1] - The domestic trade tanker fleet achieved transportation revenue of RMB 2.74 billion, also down 5.5% year-on-year [1] - The LNG transportation segment contributed a profit of RMB 424 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [1] - The LPG fleet completed transportation revenue of RMB 140 million, up 26.5% year-on-year, with a profit of RMB 30 million, an increase of 21.3% [1] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit from the foreign trade tanker fleet was RMB 1.3 billion, down 48.9% year-on-year, but showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42.9% in Q2 [1] - The gross profit margin for the foreign trade segment was 17.9%, a decrease of 15.2 percentage points year-on-year, but increased by 5.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The gross profit margin for the domestic trade segment was 24.4%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The chemical tanker fleet generated transportation revenue of RMB 160 million, a year-on-year decrease of 13.1%, while gross profit was RMB 40 million, an increase of 7.0% [2] - The gross profit margin for the chemical segment was 26.7%, an increase of 5.0 percentage points year-on-year [2]