Group 1 - The chemical sector is currently attracting significant capital attention, with the chemical ETF (159870) seeing net subscriptions exceeding 400 million units, driven by multiple positive factors in the industry [1] - Key supporting factors for the current cycle's price increase include: profitability reaching a historical low after four years of adjustment, limited further downside potential; policy-driven initiatives such as "anti-involution" and "dual carbon" policies controlling new capacity and eliminating outdated production; and a global supply reshaping with high-cost production in Europe and Japan accelerating shutdowns, leading to a 4%-7% exit of core product capacities like ethylene and propylene by 2026-2027 [1] - The chemical sector's P/B valuation is at historically low levels, with capital allocation ratios rebounding from their lows [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) include Wanhua Chemical, Salt Lake Industry, and Cangge Mining, collectively accounting for 44.82% of the index [2] - The chemical ETF (159870) closely tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, which is composed of seven sub-indices reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in related sub-industries [2] - As of February 5, 2026, the chemical ETF is priced at 0.87 yuan, with notable stock movements including Sankeshu leading with a 1.05% increase [2]

Core Viewpoint - UBS predicts that the Chinese chemical industry is likely to enter a new upward cycle from 2026 to 2028, driven by multiple positive factors, leading to profit recovery and valuation reassessment [1] Group 1: Core Drivers of Upward Cycle - Profit bottoming out with limited downside: After four years of adjustment, the chemical industry is nearing historical lows, with reduced capacity expansion pressure and marginal demand improvement providing support [2] - Deepening anti-involution policies reshaping industry ecology: China's "anti-involution" and "dual carbon" policies are key drivers for industry transformation, tightening new project approvals and optimizing standards for eliminating outdated capacity [3] - Accelerated exit of overseas capacity optimizing global supply structure: High-cost overseas chemical production is exiting the market, particularly in Europe and Japan, which will significantly improve global supply-demand balance [4][5] - Valuation and configuration at dual bottoms, highlighting cost-effectiveness: The current P/BV valuation of 1.5x for the Chinese chemical industry is at the 43rd percentile over the past 20 years, indicating strong investment potential [6][7] Group 2: Opportunities in Sub-sectors - Traditional chemicals: Price elasticity opportunities under tight supply-demand balance [8] - New materials: Rapid development in emerging industries like semiconductors and commercial aerospace opens up a trillion-dollar market for chemical new materials [9] - Key enterprise layouts: Companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Wanhua Chemical are positioned to benefit from price recovery in their respective sectors [10][11] - Downstream rapid development: Companies such as Zhongcai Technology and Tianqi Materials are set to benefit from the growth in satellite ceramic materials and battery materials [12] Group 3: Target Price Adjustments - UBS has raised target prices for several core stocks, reflecting strong confidence in the industry's upward cycle, with Asian Potash's target price increased from 54.10 to 78.30, Hengli Petrochemical from 25.60 to 35, and Wanhua Chemical from 94 to 120 [12]

Group 1 - The overall A-share profit growth is expected to accelerate from 6% in 2025 to 8% in 2026, primarily driven by the non-financial sector [1] - The revenue growth of non-financial A-shares is closely related to China's nominal GDP growth and PPI inflation, with a projected nominal GDP growth of 4.3% in 2026 [1] - The net profit margin (NPM) of non-financial A-shares has rebounded in the first nine months of 2025, reversing a long-term downward trend since 2021 [1] Group 2 - The financial sector's profit growth is expected to remain stable, supported by solid asset quality in the banking sector and improved market sentiment [2] - The cumulative profit growth of industrial enterprises in China was only 0.1% in the first eleven months of 2025, but certain sectors like computer and electronic equipment manufacturing saw a 15% profit increase [2] - Investors should pay attention to potential revisions in profit growth expectations around April 2026, as historical data shows discrepancies in profit growth forecasts during that period [2] Group 3 - The current rolling P/E ratio of the Wind All A-share index has risen above the historical average, leading some investors to worry about overvaluation [13] - Despite concerns, the equity risk premium in the A-share market remains above historical averages, indicating potential for further revaluation [13][16] - Factors such as clearer fiscal support, accelerating profit growth, and increased household savings reallocating to stocks are expected to drive A-share growth in 2026 [16] Group 4 - The Chinese central bank plans to moderately expand the deficit and maintain stable credit pulses, which is expected to support A-share revaluation [17] - The anticipated reduction in policy rates and reserve requirement ratios by the central bank may further enhance liquidity in the market [17] - A moderate expansion in P/E ratios is expected as profit growth accelerates, with historical data showing a correlation between profit growth and P/E ratios [21] Group 5 - The ongoing market capitalization management reforms are changing investor perceptions, leading to increased focus on shareholder returns [27] - A-share cash dividends reached 2.06 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a significant increase, while stock buybacks have also risen [27] Group 6 - Daily trading volume in A-shares has significantly increased in 2026, driven by improved investor risk appetite, with average daily turnover reaching 3.03 trillion yuan [28] - Regulatory measures have been implemented to cool down excessive trading activity, with daily turnover ratios fluctuating [28][33] - The financing balance in A-shares reached a historical high of 2.7 trillion yuan, indicating increased leverage in the market [33] Group 7 - The trend of reallocating household savings towards stocks is evident, with a significant portion of household deposits still available for investment in A-shares [40] - Despite a recent uptick in the stock market, the influx of household funds into the market has not yet reached overheating levels [42][46] - The potential for further inflows into A-shares exists as investors may gradually shift from fixed-income products to equity investments [49] Group 8 - The issuance of active funds has been slow, but the performance of equity funds has improved, potentially leading to increased inflows as market conditions stabilize [53] - The ETF market has seen rapid growth, with A-share holdings in ETFs surpassing those in active equity funds for the first time [58] Group 9 - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to improve supply-demand dynamics and support price recovery, enhancing corporate profitability [64] - The narrowing and eventual recovery of PPI is crucial for the revenue growth of non-financial A-shares, which may lead to stock price revaluation [65] Group 10 - The growth style is expected to outperform the value style in the mid-term, with cyclical stocks likely to perform better than defensive stocks [66] - Tactical preferences lean towards sectors benefiting from innovation, ample liquidity, and narrowing PPI, such as electronics, telecommunications, and chemicals [66] Group 11 - Despite recent declines in financing balances and market turnover, the technology sector's fundamentals remain strong, with expectations for continued growth in 2026 [75] - Metrics for assessing trading congestion in technology stocks include the proportion of trading volume and financing balances relative to market capitalization [78]

| Price (26 Jan 26 15:00) | Rmb31.140 | | --- | --- | | Target price | Rmb45.000 | | Expected share price return | 44.5% | | Expected dividend yield | 0.1% | | Expected total return | 44.6% | | Market Cap | Rmb37,070M | | | US$5,324M | Cynthia WuAC Do-Fluoride (002407.SZ) FY25 profit alert indicates a Rmb162mn NP during 4Q25 CITI'S TAKE Do-Fluoride announced a profit alert after market close today, suggesting FY25 net profit to be around Rmb200-280mn. Implied 4Q25 headline midpoint came in as Rmb162mn, than ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Battery and Battery Components** industry in **China**. - The report discusses the performance and outlook of two companies: **Tinci** and **Shenzhen Senior**. Key Points on Tinci - **Downgrade**: Tinci's stock rating has been downgraded from **Overweight** to **Equal-weight** due to high expectations already priced in and unattractive valuations [1][2] - **Earnings Performance**: Tinci has realized a **LiPF6 price** of over **Rmb100,000/t** and an **electrolyte unit net profit** of **Rmb4,000/t** in **4Q25**. This indicates a payback period of less than a year, suggesting that further upside may not be sustainable [3][9] - **Valuation Adjustment**: The stock is now valued using a **20x 2026e P/E** multiple, leading to a new price target of **Rmb49**. The previous valuation was based on long-term profit estimates rather than actual profit [3][10] - **Market Position**: Tinci is positioned to benefit from a demand boom due to a favorable competitive landscape, but the sustainability of high prices is questioned as the top three LiPF6 producers have significant capacities ready to start [9][10] - **Earnings Forecasts**: The earnings forecasts for **2025/26/27** have been raised, reflecting the higher LiPF6 price estimates [10] Key Points on Shenzhen Senior - **Downgrade**: Shenzhen Senior's stock rating has also been downgraded from **Overweight** to **Equal-weight** as its sales volume guidance for **2026** is below industry averages [1][4] - **Sales Volume Guidance**: The company expects a **30% YoY sales volume growth** in **2026**, which is lower than the **35-40%** expected by peers. This is attributed to a higher overseas customer mix and a potential shift from dry to wet separators by some battery producers [4][35] - **Earnings Forecasts**: The earnings forecasts for **2025/26/27** remain unchanged, based on a reasonable long-term **ROIC** of **15%** for separator makers, with a maintained price target of **Rmb16** [4][36] Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The ongoing price negotiations between battery makers and battery material makers are highlighted, indicating a competitive environment [2] - **Capacity Concerns**: The report notes that Tinci and its competitors have ready-to-start capacities that could significantly impact market prices and profitability [3][9] - **Long-term Outlook**: Both companies are expected to face challenges in sustaining high profit levels due to market saturation and competitive pressures [3][4][9] Conclusion - The downgrades for both Tinci and Shenzhen Senior reflect a cautious outlook on their stock valuations amid high expectations and competitive market dynamics. The focus on earnings performance and market positioning will be critical for future assessments in the battery components industry.

Summary of the 2025 China Materials Tour Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Battery Materials and Energy Storage Systems (ESS) - **Key Company**: ZE Consulting Core Insights 1. **Battery Demand Forecast**: ZE Consulting predicts a significant increase in ESS demand for FY26, estimating a growth of **70-80% YoY**. This is attributed to battery makers revising their output guidance upwards for FY26, indicating a tightening supply-demand dynamic in the battery market [1][2][3] 2. **Battery Price Trends**: Anticipated price hikes in batteries are expected due to: - Tightening supply and demand dynamics for both ESS and electric vehicle (EV) batteries - Inflation in raw material costs that battery manufacturers will need to pass on to consumers [1][3][5] 3. **Production Pipeline**: The production pipeline for December 2025 is expected to remain stable month-over-month. Leading battery manufacturers are stockpiling battery materials in preparation for increased average selling prices (ASP) and for production needs during the Chinese New Year [2][3] 4. **Cost Inflation Impact**: Recent inflation in battery materials has resulted in approximately a **10% increase** in the cost of battery cells. Key materials such as LiPF6, VC, and lithium carbonate have seen significant price increases, with further hikes expected for cathodes and other components [3][5] 5. **Lepidolite Mine Operations**: JXW is projected to resume operations in December 2025, adding around **8,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE)** monthly to the market. However, other lepidolite mines may face operational suspensions similar to CATL's situation during FY26 [4][5] 6. **Price Hikes Sequence**: The sequence of price increases is expected to start with ESS, followed by LiPF6 and cathodes, and then separators and anodes. EV battery prices may also rise due to cost pressures and a shift in production capacity towards ESS [5][8] 7. **Profitability Concerns**: If battery makers increase the ASP of battery cells to offset cost inflation, it could negatively impact the internal rate of return (IRR) for ESS projects. Profitability is at risk if the ASP exceeds **Rmb0.4/wh** [8] Additional Important Points - **Inventory Management**: Leading battery manufacturers are increasing their inventory of battery materials in anticipation of rising prices and production needs [2][3] - **Market Dynamics**: The overall market dynamics indicate a shift towards a more constrained supply environment, which could lead to further price volatility in the battery materials sector [1][5] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, highlighting the evolving landscape of the battery materials industry and its implications for future investments.

Summary of Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - **Sector**: China Electrolyte Sector - **Key Material**: LiPF6 (Lithium Hexafluorophosphate) - **Market Dynamics**: The supply-demand balance for LiPF6 is expected to improve in 2026, with a significant price increase anticipated due to rising demand for energy storage systems (ESS) batteries and limited new capacity additions [2][3][9] Core Insights - **Price Trends**: - LiPF6 retail price surged from Rmb57,000/tonne in early September to Rmb158,000/tonne [2][9] - Projected 2026 prices for LiPF6 and electrolytes are Rmb90,000/tonne and Rmb24,000/tonne respectively, indicating YoY increases of 44% and 18% [2][12] - **Capacity and Demand**: - Effective capacity growth for LiPF6 is estimated at less than 20% in 2026, primarily from top producers [3][16] - Demand for electrolytes is projected to rise over 30% in 2026, driven by ESS battery demand [3][8] Company-Specific Insights Tinci Materials - **Sales Volume Growth**: Expected to increase by 42% YoY to 920kt in 2026 [4] - **Net Profit Sensitivity**: For every Rmb10,000/t increase in LiPF6 price, Tinci's net profit is estimated to rise by approximately Rmb800 million [4][23] - **Earnings Estimates**: - 2026E net profit forecast doubled to Rmb3 billion, reflecting strong demand and price increases [23][32] - Price target raised from Rmb38.0 to Rmb60.0, implying a 27x PE for 2027E [5][32] Capchem - **Sales Volume Growth**: Expected to rise by 35% YoY to 440kt in 2026 [4] - **Net Profit Sensitivity**: For every Rmb10,000/t increase in LiPF6 price, Capchem's net profit is estimated to increase by Rmb130 million [4][23] - **Earnings Estimates**: - Slight increase in 2026-28E earnings by 2-5% due to higher additive prices [25][33] - Price target raised from Rmb66.0 to Rmb75.0, reflecting a 35x PE for 2026E [5][33] Market Positioning - **Competitive Landscape**: Tinci and Capchem are positioned as leading producers with integrated supply chains, enhancing their competitive edge [4][8] - **Valuation Metrics**: - Tinci and Capchem are trading at 28x and 25x 2026E PE, below the sector average of 35x, indicating potential undervaluation [8][27] Additional Considerations - **Capacity Expansion Plans**: - Tinci plans to launch 35kt of new capacity in H226, while Capchem's Jiangxi Shilei aims to expand from 24kt to 37kt [3][16] - **Market Sentiment**: Recent stock price declines attributed to concerns over LiPF6 price realization and demand seasonality [8][27] Conclusion - The electrolyte sector, particularly for LiPF6, is poised for significant growth driven by increasing demand from the ESS battery market. Tinci and Capchem are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, with revised earnings estimates reflecting a positive outlook for both companies.

Summary of Key Takeaways from the Conference Call on the China Chemical Sector Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: China Chemical Sector, specifically MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate), refrigerants, electrolytes, and TiO2 (Titanium Dioxide) [2][3][4][5] MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate) - **Price Trends**: pMDI prices have decreased year-to-date (YTD), averaging Rmb15,986/t, down 6% YoY, with a forecast range of Rmb14,500-16,000/t for 2026 [8][11] - **Supply Dynamics**: Expected capacity additions in 2026 include Wanhua (700ktpa), BASF (160ktpa), and Covestro (40ktpa) [9] - **Demand Outlook**: Modest domestic demand growth anticipated in 2026, with a projected consumption growth of 2-6% for major downstream applications [10] - **Export Challenges**: Exports expected to decline to ~0.8mt in 2025, primarily due to reduced shipments to the US [10] Refrigerants - **Pricing Divergence**: Significant price variations observed YTD, with R32 and R134a prices increasing by 57% and 47% YoY, respectively, while R22 prices fell due to weak demand [12][15] - **Future Price Projections**: R32 and R134a prices expected to reach Rmb69,500/t and Rmb63,500/t by end-2026, respectively [14] - **Demand Risks**: Potential downside risks from new air conditioning demand and increased overseas capacity, particularly in India [15] Electrolytes - **Supply-Demand Balance**: Anticipated moderation in supply-demand imbalance for LiPF6 in 2026, with a price range forecast of Rmb80,000-90,000/t [16][17] - **Capacity Growth**: Expected capacity growth of 6.8% in 2026, with a slowdown to ~5.4% CAGR from 2026-2030 [17] - **Additives Pricing**: Significant price increases for electrolyte additives noted, with vinylene carbonate rising to Rmb108,000/t [18] TiO2 (Titanium Dioxide) - **Market Conditions**: Domestic TiO2 producers facing losses due to oversupply and high costs, with average prices projected to decline 3% YoY to Rmb13,500/t in 2026 [5][23] - **Capacity Additions**: Anticipated new capacity of 1.12mtpa in 2026, with 200ktpa expected to come online early in the year [21] - **Export Recovery**: Mild recovery in TiO2 export volumes expected, driven by global demand growth and potential changes in India's anti-dumping policies [22] Additional Insights - **Risks in the Chemical Sector**: Key risks include price volatility due to fluctuations in oil prices, macroeconomic uncertainties affecting demand, and rapid capacity expansions leading to oversupply [24] - **Analyst Insights**: The opinions expressed by experts do not necessarily reflect the views of UBS, and the firm disclaims responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided [7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Oil, Gas, and Chemical Sector in China - **Outlook Period**: 2026-2028 Oil Market Insights - **Brent Crude Price Forecast**: UBS projects average prices of US$64, US$70, and US$75 per barrel for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [7][10][12] - **OPEC+ Production Cuts**: The second tranche of OPEC+'s voluntary cuts of 1.65 million barrels per day (Mb/d) may conclude in December 2026, with effective production increases expected to be only 40% of the headline numbers [2][24] - **China's Oil Demand**: Anticipated declines in gasoline and diesel demand by 4.4% and 3.7% year-over-year (YoY) in 2025 and 2026 respectively, driven by the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) [2][53] Natural Gas Market Insights - **Asia LNG Price Forecast**: Expected prices of US$12.8 and US$11.5 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with long-term prices approaching US$7-8/MMBtu [2][41][47] - **China's Natural Gas Demand Growth**: Projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3-4% from 2025 to 2030, despite a 1% YoY decline in H1 2025 due to various economic factors [48][52] Chemical Sector Insights - **Earnings Recovery**: The petrochemical industry is expected to rebound due to overseas capacity exits and China's anti-involution policies [3] - **Preferred Sectors**: Recommendations include PTA, silicone, and glyphosate sectors, focusing on industries with low profitability and potential for improved utilization rates [3] New Materials Insights - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6)**: Prices expected to remain strong in 2026, with demand growth outpacing effective capacity growth [4] - **Memory Chip Cycle Recovery**: Anticipated support for earnings rebound for electronic gas and wet chemical producers [4] Stock Recommendations - **Oil Companies**: Favorable outlook for PetroChina A/H, CNOOC A/H, and Sinopec A/H due to expected recovery in oil prices and attractive dividend yields [5] - **Chemical Companies**: Recommendations include Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and Hengli Petrochemical [5] - **New Materials**: Positive outlook for Capchem, Sinocera, and Jiemei as beneficiaries of the electrolyte and MLCC cycle recoveries [5] Risks and Considerations - **Oil Price Risks**: Potential upside risks include firmer global economic growth and geopolitical tensions, while downside risks involve a global economic slowdown and weaker compliance from OPEC+ [9][10] - **Natural Gas Market Volatility**: Expected tightness in the global LNG market until 2030, with potential disruptions leading to elevated prices [41][47] Additional Insights - **EV Penetration**: Domestic EV penetration in China has exceeded 50% since April, with expectations to reach 76% by 2030 [54][55] - **China's Crude Imports**: A 3% YoY increase in crude imports in 9M25, attributed to lower oil prices and inventory scaling [60]

Summary of Conference Call on China Battery Materials Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The conference call centers on the electrolyte/LiPF6 sector within the battery materials industry, particularly in China. - **Market Dynamics**: After a four-year downturn, the market is expected to shift back to a tight balance by the second half of 2026, driven by supply discipline and resilient battery demand, especially in energy storage systems (ESS) [1][2][11]. Key Insights Supply and Demand Projections - **Supply Growth**: Estimated supply growth for LiPF6 is projected at 9% year-over-year (YoY) for FY26, with major new capacity expected to come online in the second half of 2026 [2][11]. - **Demand Growth**: Demand for LiPF6 is anticipated to grow by 31% YoY in FY26, with ESS battery demand expected to rise by 45% YoY [2][44]. - **Utilization Rates**: Utilization rates are expected to increase to 81% in 2026, up from 51% in 2024 [3][12][48]. Price Dynamics - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: The average selling price of LiPF6 is projected to reach Rmb100,000 per ton in 2026, representing a 48% increase from Rmb67,500 per ton in 2025 [3][52]. - **Price Recovery**: Recent price increases have been noted, with spot prices rising from Rmb63,000 per ton before the Golden Week to over Rmb100,000 per ton [12][51][76]. Market Structure - **Concentration of Market**: The market is expected to become more concentrated, with the top five producers (CR5) projected to control 75% of the market by 2028, up from 68% in 2024 [3][57][59]. - **Capacity Expansion**: Leading players like Tinci Materials and Do-Fluoride are expected to expand their capacities, with Tinci planning to add 35ktpa in 2H26 and Do-Fluoride adding 20ktpa by FY27 [57][94]. Investment Recommendations - **Stock Coverage Initiation**: Coverage has been initiated on Tinci Materials (Buy, target price Rmb62) and Do-Fluoride (Buy, target price Rmb45), with Tinci preferred due to its cost competitiveness and market share growth [5][13]. - **Risks Identified**: Key risks include weaker battery demand, cost inflation, and the potential commercialization of solid-state batteries, which could impact electrolyte demand [5][63][64]. Market Concerns and Debates - **Solid-State Battery Impact**: The potential commercialization of solid-state batteries poses a long-term risk to LiPF6 demand, although mass production is not expected soon [4][72]. - **Demand Sustainability**: There are varying expectations regarding the sustainability of ESS battery demand, with forecasts ranging from 20% to 60% YoY growth [65][69]. Conclusion - The electrolyte/LiPF6 market is poised for recovery, with significant growth in both supply and demand anticipated through 2026. The investment outlook is positive for leading companies in the sector, although risks related to demand fluctuations and technological advancements must be monitored closely.