ab 14 November 2025 Oil prices might recover in 2026-28E, China demand dragged by gasoline/diesel Crude oil: UBS projects Brent crude oil price to average US$64/70/75/bbl in 2026-28, with expectations that the second tranche of OPEC+'s voluntary cuts of 1.65Mb/d may end in Dec 2026 and the effective production increase may be 40% of the headline numbers. Oil prices could improve from later part of 2026, in UBS view. Weak gasoline and diesel consumption might further weigh on China demand and we project 4.4% ...

E s s e n t i a l s | 14 Nov 2025 05:04:32 ET │ 46 pages China Battery Materials Returning to a Bull Narrative; Initiate on Tinci Materials and Do- Fluoride at Buy CITI'S TAKE After a four-year downturn, we see electrolyte/LiPF6 dynamic shifts back to a tight rebalance till 2H26E, on industry supply discipline in the past few quarters and extended resilient battery demand (especially on ESS). We initiate coverage of the electrolyte/LiPF6 sector ahead of reframing bull narratives, echoing our Super-Sector gl ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Chemical Sector, specifically focusing on fluorochemicals and refrigerants - **Key Trends**: Significant price increases in refrigerants, driven by supply constraints and robust demand from the air conditioning (AC) industry and emerging liquid cooling technologies for data centers Core Insights - **Refrigerant Price Increases**: - Average Selling Prices (ASPs) for refrigerants R32 and R134a have increased by 43% and 22% respectively year-to-date as of September 12, 2025, with R32 reaching Rmb61.5k/t and R134a at Rmb52.0k/t [2][8] - ASPs for R22 have also risen, reflecting a 5% increase [8] - **Market Dynamics**: - Strong supplier pricing power due to quota constraints and a favorable competitive landscape [3][8] - Anticipated continued demand growth for R32, particularly as it is used in most new household ACs, replacing R410a [3][17] - **Liquid Cooling Demand**: - AI-driven demand for liquid cooling solutions in data centers is expected to create new growth opportunities for fluorochemical companies [4][25] - Two-phase cold plate liquid cooling and immersion cooling are highlighted as key technologies, with R134a being a suitable coolant for these applications [4][26] Company-Specific Insights - **Price Target Adjustments**: - Price targets for Dongyue, Sanmei, Capchem, and Tinci have been raised due to improved earnings forecasts and favorable pricing outlooks for refrigerants [5][42] - Sanmei's price target increased from Rmb62.60 to Rmb85.60, reflecting a 37% change [5][50] - Dongyue's price target raised from HKD12.00 to HKD18.00, indicating a 50% increase [5][51] - **Earnings Forecasts**: - 2025-27E earnings for companies in the sector have been lifted, with specific increases for Dongyue (3-19%) and Sanmei (1-20%) [5][50][51] - **Valuation Metrics**: - Dongyue and Sanmei are trading at lower PE ratios compared to peers, suggesting potential for valuation upside as refrigerant prices continue to rise [39][68] Potential Risks - **Regulatory Changes**: Possible changes to the refrigerant quota policy in 2026 could impact supply dynamics [53] - **Market Competition**: The introduction of fourth-generation refrigerants may disrupt the pricing of third-generation refrigerants [53] - **Demand Fluctuations**: A potential decline in AC production in 2026 could negatively affect refrigerant demand [53] Additional Insights - **Long-term Outlook**: The refrigerant industry is expected to maintain elevated prices due to stable supply conditions and strong demand, particularly for R32 and R134a [54][66] - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like Capchem are positioned to benefit from the exit of 3M from PFAS production, potentially capturing market share in fluorinated liquids [29][30] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of the chemical sector, particularly in the refrigerant market, and the implications for specific companies within the industry.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Oil, Gas, and Chemicals - **Key Trends**: - OPEC+ is expected to fully unwind production cuts, leading to increased oil supply surplus expectations. - Brent crude oil prices fell by 3% month-over-month (MoM) to US$67.3 per barrel in August, indicating weaker prices as peak demand season ends. [2][28] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day (Mb/d) in 2025, increasing to 3.0 Mb/d in 2026. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts around 1.5 Mb/d for both years. [2][28] Chemical Sector Insights - **Price Movements**: - TDI (Toluene Diisocyanate) average selling price (ASP) increased by 13% MoM, but showed a downward trend due to soft demand and higher supply. [3] - mMDI (Modified MDI) ASP rose by 7% MoM, supported by maintenance periods for some plants. [3] - Refrigerant R32 ASP also increased by 7% MoM, driven by strong producer bargaining power. [3] - **Demand Dynamics**: - Price increases were noted among TiO2 producers and polyester filament businesses, indicating potential for further price hikes in the near term. [4] - Products with tight supply include acetic acid, hydrogen peroxide, refrigerants, and others, suggesting potential price support. [4] Stock Recommendations - **Preferred Sectors**: - Chemical subsectors are favored as beneficiaries of 'anti-involution', particularly: - Fertilizers (Hualu) - Refining/Olefins (Hengli, Baofeng, Satellite) - Products with price hike potential (Wanhua for pMDI, Tongkun for polyester filament, Fufeng/Meihua for MSG, and refrigerants). [5] Risk Factors - **Oil & Gas Sector Risks**: - Fluctuations in crude oil prices and disappointing productivity enhancements could impact the sector. [28] - **Chemical Sector Risks**: - Price volatility due to international oil price changes and macroeconomic uncertainties could affect demand. [29] - **New Materials Sector Risks**: - Technological changes and reliance on policy support pose risks to revenue growth and stability. [30] Price Trends and Spreads - **Chemical Product Prices**: - Significant price changes were observed in various chemical products, with some experiencing declines of over 30% year-over-year (YoY). [27] - For example, butyl acrylate saw a 20.9% decrease MoM, while methanol-coal prices increased by 63.5% YoY. [27] Conclusion - The oil and chemical sectors are facing a complex landscape characterized by supply surpluses, price volatility, and shifting demand dynamics. Investors are advised to monitor these trends closely for potential investment opportunities and risks.

Summary of Key Takeaways from the Chemicals Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Chemicals Sector - **Key Chemicals Discussed**: MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate), Refrigerants, Electrolytes, Urea MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate) - **Earnings Improvement**: MDI earnings improved in H125 due to voluntary production cuts by producers to protect pricing, despite weaker domestic demand and export challenges from tariffs and anti-dumping measures [2][10] - **Pricing Outlook**: MDI prices are expected to trend up slowly in Q325, with potential strain in Q425 due to new capacity launches and contract price bidding. The average selling price (ASP) is projected to be Rmb15,800/t in H225, down 4.8% from H125 [12] - **Capacity Developments**: Major capacity additions include Wanhua's Fujian Phase II (800ktpa) and other expansions from BASF and Covestro. Hualu-Hengsheng is also progressing on its TDI project [11][9] - **Export Challenges**: Tariff and anti-dumping impacts are expected to persist, but Wanhua is positioned to mitigate some effects by exporting from European facilities [13] Refrigerants - **Price Increases**: Major refrigerants saw price increases in H125, with R32 and R134a rising significantly due to strong demand from household and automotive sectors. R32 prices are expected to reach Rmb51,000/Rmb65,000/t in 2025/2026 [15][16] - **Weakness in R22/R125**: R22 and R125 prices are under pressure due to weak demand and high inventory levels, with cautious outlooks for H225 [15][16] Electrolytes - **Cautious Price Outlook**: The electrolyte expert projects prices to fluctuate between Rmb15,000-20,000/t in H225, primarily due to oversupply and strong bargaining power of downstream companies [4][17] - **Capacity Growth**: LiPF6 capacity is expected to increase by 8% to 424ktpa in 2025, with current utilization rates remaining low [18] - **Capacity Exits**: It may take 2-3 years for smaller capacity exits to occur, as marginal firms continue to operate despite losses [19] Urea - **Export Dynamics**: Urea exports are crucial for balancing domestic supply-demand. A quota of 3.5mt has been granted for July-October, with potential for additional quotas [5][23] - **Pricing Trends**: Urea ASP is expected to rise to Rmb1,800-1,880/t in July-August due to export and agricultural demand, but may drop to Rmb1,680-1,780/t later in the year due to increased supply [25] - **Capacity Expansion**: Domestic urea capacity is projected to grow, with total capacity expected to reach 79.11mtpa by end-2025 [21] Additional Insights - **Market Risks**: The chemicals sector faces risks from price fluctuations due to international oil prices, macroeconomic uncertainties, and rapid capacity additions that could weaken fundamentals [26] - **Regulatory Environment**: The Chinese government is promoting anti-involution policies, which may impact the operational landscape for chemical firms [24] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the chemicals sector in China.