[Table_IndNameRptType] 基础化工 行业周报 有机硅行业至高减产 30%，XRG 收购科思创交易获德国批准 [Table_IndRank] 行业评级：增持 报告日期： 2025-11-26 [Table_Chart] 行业指数与沪深 300 走势比较 -27% -14% 0% 14% 27% 41% 2/24 5/24 8/24 11/24 2/25 5/25 8/25 11/25 基础化工 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：王强峰 分析师：潘宁馨 执业证书号：S0010524070002 电话：13816562460 邮箱：pannx@hazq.com [Table_Report] 相关报告 1.印度对华 BIS 认证撤销，有机硅 DMC 价格涨幅居前 20251114 2.天然气制绿氨首获 ISCC PLUS 认证，三季 度轮胎盈利普遍回暖 20251107 3.510 亿元央企新兴产业发展基金启航，六 氟磷酸锂价格涨势不止 20251031 4.2026 年化肥、原油进口配额总量公布，地 缘催化油价震荡走强 20251024 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the chemical industry is expected to experience a recovery in profitability due to macroeconomic improvements and supply-side policy advancements, with a focus on sectors like phosphate chemicals, potassium fertilizers, pesticides, MDI, titanium dioxide, and lithium battery materials [1] - The macroeconomic environment has shown steady recovery since 2025, with expectations for CPI to return to positive territory by Q4 2025 and a gradual narrowing of PPI's year-on-year decline, indicating a bottoming out phase for the chemical industry [1] - The chemical industry's capital expenditure is currently contracting, and the pace of new capacity additions is slowing, which is beneficial for improving supply-demand relationships [1] Group 2 - The chemical industry's PB valuation is at historical lows, suggesting significant upside potential, while PE valuation reflects market pricing in future recovery [2] - The agricultural chemicals sector is performing relatively well, with high prices for phosphate and potassium fertilizers, and the pesticide industry entering a recovery phase [2] - The lithium battery materials sector is seeing improved profitability trends due to strong end-demand and orderly expansion by leading companies [2] Group 3 - Emerging applications in AI, OLED, and robotics are driving strong growth in the chemical new materials sector, with significant demand for key materials like photoresists and electronic chemicals [3] - The OLED market is experiencing rapid growth, with domestic panel manufacturers increasing their market share and the scale of organic materials expanding [3] - The robotics industry is creating new demand for high-performance materials such as PEEK and MXD6, which are characterized by lightweight, high strength, and high-temperature resistance [3]

Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment is steadily recovering, establishing a bottoming trend for the chemical industry. Since 2025, macro price indices have shown continuous improvement, with CPI expected to return to positive territory by Q4 2025 and PPI's year-on-year decline expected to narrow gradually. The chemical product price index is anticipated to stabilize, indicating that the industry is entering a phase of bottom consolidation [3][10][15]. - The chemical industry is currently experiencing low PB valuations, suggesting potential for profit recovery. The PE valuation is relatively high, reflecting market expectations for future recovery, while the PB valuation is close to historical lows, indicating significant upside potential for the industry [3][15][19]. - The agricultural chemicals sector is performing relatively well, with high prices for phosphate and potash expected to persist. The pesticide industry is entering a phase of recovery, while the MDI sector, despite low prices, is maintaining stable profits through effective shipment management by leading companies [3][41][42]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Data and Industry Trends - The CPI is expected to turn positive, and the PPI's decline is narrowing, indicating a gradual improvement in the overall supply-demand landscape for chemical products [10][15]. - The chemical industry’s capacity utilization rate is at a historical low of 72.5%, with a slight recovery in gross profit margins observed [19][20]. - The chemical industry is entering a replenishment phase after a prolonged destocking period, with inventory levels expected to rise as demand recovers [23]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The agricultural chemicals sector is seeing sustained high prices for phosphate rock, with domestic prices around 1017 CNY/ton as of October 27, 2025, supported by tight supply and increasing demand for new applications [42][44]. - The MDI sector is characterized by stable profitability despite low prices, with leading companies effectively managing their shipment schedules [41]. - The lithium battery materials sector is experiencing a recovery in profitability due to strong terminal demand and orderly expansion by leading companies [3][41]. Group 3: Policy and Investment Outlook - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has launched a growth stabilization plan for the petrochemical industry, targeting an average annual growth of over 5% from 2025 to 2026 [3][36]. - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from reduced capital expenditures, with fixed asset investments declining by 5.6% in the first nine months of 2025, indicating a shift towards improved supply-demand dynamics [31][32]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong cost control capabilities in sectors such as phosphate chemicals, potash, pesticides, MDI, titanium dioxide, and lithium battery materials [3][41].

Industry Overview - The chemical sector experienced a decline of 5.83% from October 13 to October 17, 2025, ranking 26th among all sectors, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.36 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 0.12 percentage points [2][3] Key Trends and Recommendations - The chemical industry is expected to continue its trend of divergence in 2025, with a focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [2] - Synthetic biology is anticipated to reach a pivotal moment, driven by energy structure adjustments, with traditional chemical companies needing to adapt to energy consumption and carbon tax costs [2] - The third-generation refrigerants are entering a high prosperity cycle due to supply constraints and increasing demand from markets like Southeast Asia [3] - Electronic specialty gases are critical for the semiconductor industry, with domestic companies poised to benefit from the increasing demand for high-end production capacity [4] - The trend towards light hydrocarbon chemicals is becoming global, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter feedstocks like ethane and propane, which are more cost-effective and environmentally friendly [5] - The industrialization of COC/COP materials is accelerating in China, driven by domestic production capabilities and the need for supply chain security [6] - Potash fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as major suppliers reduce output, leading to a tightening supply-demand balance [7][8] - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with a favorable supply structure anticipated as demand recovers, making it a resilient chemical product [9] Price Tracking - Significant price increases were noted for liquid chlorine (553.33%), sulfur (8.80%), and acrylic acid (3.68%), while notable declines were seen in nitrile rubber (-33.13%) and NYMEX natural gas futures (-7.98%) [10] - A total of 165 chemical enterprises reported production capacity impacts, with 8 new maintenance activities and 4 restarts recorded [11]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Overweight [1] Core Views - The chemical sector showed a weekly performance ranking of 8th with a gain of 1.99%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.63 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 5.85 percentage points [4][22]. - The chemical industry is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector's overall performance for the week of October 9-10, 2025, was a gain of 1.99%, ranking 8th among sectors [22]. - The top three performing sub-sectors were phosphate and phosphorus chemicals (6.26%), titanium dioxide (4.23%), and oil and petrochemical trade (4.23%) [23]. Key Industry Dynamics - Synthetic biology is at a pivotal moment, with low-energy products expected to gain a longer growth window due to the adjustment of energy structures [4]. - The upcoming quota policy for third-generation refrigerants is anticipated to enter a high prosperity cycle, with demand expected to grow steadily due to market expansion in Southeast Asia [5]. - The electronic specialty gases market is characterized by high technical barriers and high added value, with significant opportunities for domestic substitution [6][8]. - The trend of light hydrocarbon chemicals is becoming global, with a shift towards lighter raw materials for olefin production [8]. - The COC polymer industry is accelerating its domestic industrialization process, driven by supply chain security concerns and the shift of downstream industries to domestic production [9]. - Potash fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as major producers reduce output and the demand for fertilizers increases due to rising grain prices [10]. - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with a favorable supply structure expected as demand gradually recovers [12].

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Overweight [1] Core Views - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 17th this week, with a decline of 0.95%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.16 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 2.91 percentage points [4][22] - The chemical industry is expected to continue its trend of differentiated growth in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector's performance this week was -0.95%, ranking it 17th among all sectors, while the top three performing sectors were power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and electronics [22][23] - The top three individual stocks in the chemical sector this week were Bluefeng Biochemical (61.16%), Shangwei New Materials (44.81%), and Huarsoft Technology (31.83%) [28] Key Industry Dynamics - A new plan for stable growth in the petrochemical industry was released by seven departments, aiming for an average annual growth of over 5% in value added from 2025 to 2026 [34] - The plan emphasizes the importance of technological innovation, digital empowerment, and environmental sustainability in the petrochemical sector [34] Investment Opportunities - Synthetic biology is highlighted as a key area for growth, with companies like Kasei Biotech and Huaheng Biological being recommended for investment [4][8] - The third-generation refrigerants are expected to enter a high prosperity cycle due to upcoming quota policies and stable demand growth from the air conditioning and cold chain markets [5] - The electronic specialty gases market presents significant domestic substitution opportunities, driven by rapid upgrades in the semiconductor and photovoltaic industries [6][8] - Light hydrocarbon chemicals are identified as a global trend, with a shift towards lighter raw materials expected to enhance the value of leading companies in this sector [8] - The COC polymer industry is accelerating its domestic industrialization process, with companies like AkzoNobel being recommended for attention [9] - Potash fertilizer prices are anticipated to rebound as supply tightens and demand increases due to rising agricultural planting intentions [10] - The MDI market is expected to improve due to oligopolistic supply dynamics and stable demand from polyurethane applications [12]

Industry Overview - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 11th this week (2025/08/25-2025/08/29) with a fluctuation of 1.11%, positioned in the upper-middle of the market. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated by 0.84%, while the ChiNext Index saw a fluctuation of 7.74%. The Shenwan Chemical sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite by 0.27 percentage points but underperformed the ChiNext by 6.63 percentage points [1][2]. Key Industry Insights - The chemical industry is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [2]. Synthetic Biology - A pivotal moment for synthetic biology is anticipated, driven by energy structure adjustments. Traditional chemical companies will face competition based on energy consumption and carbon tax costs. Companies that utilize green energy alternatives and scale advantages are likely to reduce energy costs and expand into larger overseas markets. The demand for bio-based materials is expected to surge, leading to potential profitability and valuation increases. Key companies to watch include Kasei Bio and Huaheng Bio [2]. Refrigerants - The implementation of quota policies is expected to usher in a high-growth cycle for third-generation refrigerants. Starting in 2024, the supply of these refrigerants will enter a "quota + continuous reduction" phase, while second-generation refrigerants will see accelerated reductions. The demand for refrigerants is projected to grow steadily due to the development of heat pumps, cold chain markets, and the expansion of the air conditioning market in Southeast Asia. Companies with a high quota share in refrigerants are likely to benefit from the ongoing supply-demand gap. Relevant companies include Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Yonghe Co. [3][4]. Electronic Specialty Gases - Electronic specialty gases are critical to the electronics industry and represent a core aspect of domestic industrial chain localization. The domestic market is experiencing rapid upgrades in wafer manufacturing, leading to a mismatch between the demand for high-end electronic specialty gases and the insufficient domestic production capacity. Companies that can establish high-end production capacity and possess substantial technical reserves are expected to gain a competitive edge. Key players include Jinhong Gas, Huate Gas, and China Shipbuilding Gas [4][5]. Light Hydrocarbon Chemicals - The trend towards light raw materials in the global olefin industry has been significant over the past decade, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter low-carbon alkanes like ethane and propane. This transition is characterized by shorter processes, higher yields, and lower costs. Light hydrocarbon chemicals are also aligned with global low-carbon and energy-saving initiatives. The leading companies in this sector are expected to see their valuations reassessed positively [5]. COC Polymers - The industrialization process of COC/COP (cyclic olefin copolymer) is accelerating in China, driven by domestic companies achieving breakthroughs after years of research. The shift of downstream industries, such as consumer electronics and new energy vehicles, to domestic production has heightened the urgency for local alternatives. The market for COC/COP remains constrained by supply-side bottlenecks, but domestic companies are poised to break through and expand market opportunities. Notable companies include Akerley [6]. MDI Market Dynamics - The MDI market is characterized by oligopolistic supply dynamics, with demand remaining stable due to the expansion of polyurethane applications. The global MDI production capacity is concentrated among eight manufacturers, with five major companies accounting for 90.85% of total capacity. Despite current price pressures, MDI is expected to maintain profitability, and the supply landscape is likely to improve as demand recovers. Key companies to monitor include Wanhua Chemical [9]. Price Tracking - The top five price increases this week included NYMEX natural gas (11.08%), bisphenol A (2.99%), PX (2.86%), refrigerant R32 (2.56%), and butadiene (2.08%). Conversely, the largest price declines were seen in liquid chlorine (-25.86%), urea (-3.45%), TDI (-3.33%), toluene (-3.18%), and pure benzene (-2.70%) [10]. Supply Side Tracking - This week, 153 chemical companies reported changes in production capacity, with six new maintenance activities and four restarts noted [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the chemical industry, specifically recommending Shengquan Group, Hailide, Zhuoyue New Energy, and Ruile New Materials [4][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with strong performance in the first half of 2025, particularly those benefiting from AI capital investments and macroeconomic stability [1]. - The phosphate fertilizer export window is expected to open, with high demand anticipated to continue, suggesting a focus on large phosphate chemical companies like Yuntianhua [2]. - Safety incidents in the chemical industry are prompting increased scrutiny, which may lead to a rise in the agricultural chemicals sector as non-compliant capacities are phased out [3]. Summary by Sections Key Companies and Performance - Shengquan Group is highlighted as a major supplier of electronic resins for AI servers, with expected performance improvements due to rising server shipments, projecting an EPS of 1.53 in 2025 [4]. - Hailide, a leader in industrial polyester yarn, is also recommended, with an EPS forecast of 0.37 for 2025 [4]. - Zhuoyue New Energy is noted for its capacity growth and new product launches, with an EPS of 3.16 expected in 2025 [4]. - Ruile New Materials anticipates a 69.93% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by growth in its pharmaceutical segment [1][4]. Market Trends - The chemical industry index rose by 2.46% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [11]. - Key chemical products such as liquid chlorine, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide saw significant price increases, with liquid chlorine prices rising by 92% [20][18]. Sub-industry Analysis - The polyester filament market is experiencing price fluctuations, with an average price of 6,735 CNY/ton for POY and 7,050 CNY/ton for FDY [22]. - The tire industry shows a slight increase in operating rates, with full steel tire rates at 60.06% and semi-steel tire rates at 69.11% [31]. - The refrigerant market remains stable, with R22 prices holding firm between 39,500 and 40,500 CNY/ton [40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the chemical industry, specifically recommending Shengquan Group, Hailide, and Zhuoyue New Energy [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with strong performance in the first half of the year, particularly those expected to exceed earnings forecasts in Q2 2025. It highlights Shengquan Group's role as a major domestic supplier of electronic resins for AI servers, benefiting from increasing server shipments. Hailide is noted for its leadership in the polyester industrial yarn sector, which is expected to benefit from U.S. tariff conflicts. Zhuoyue New Energy is recognized for its capacity growth and new product launches, which are anticipated to elevate its performance [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Overview - The chemical industry index closed at 3727.14 points, down 1.46% from the previous week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.29% [10]. - Key chemical products such as TDI, epoxy chloropropane, lithium hydroxide, formic acid, and phosphoric acid saw significant price increases [21]. Key Sub-Industry Tracking - **Phosphate Fertilizers**: The report indicates a peak export window for phosphate fertilizers, with exports expected to alleviate domestic overcapacity and maintain profitability for large phosphate chemical companies like Yuntianhua [2]. - **Pesticides**: Following a chemical safety incident, the report anticipates a nationwide safety inspection that may lead to the elimination of non-compliant production capacities, potentially boosting the pesticide industry's outlook [3]. - **Polyester Filament**: The report notes a slight increase in polyester filament prices, driven by rising production costs and a modest uptick in demand, although overall market conditions remain weak [24][25]. Company Performance Forecasts - Shengquan Group is projected to have an EPS of 1.03 in 2024, with a PE ratio of 31, while Hailide's EPS is expected to be 0.35 with a PE of 16. Zhuoyue New Energy is forecasted to achieve an EPS of 1.24 with a PE of 35 [4].

Summary of Key Takeaways from the Chemicals Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Chemicals Sector - **Key Chemicals Discussed**: MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate), Refrigerants, Electrolytes, Urea MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate) - **Earnings Improvement**: MDI earnings improved in H125 due to voluntary production cuts by producers to protect pricing, despite weaker domestic demand and export challenges from tariffs and anti-dumping measures [2][10] - **Pricing Outlook**: MDI prices are expected to trend up slowly in Q325, with potential strain in Q425 due to new capacity launches and contract price bidding. The average selling price (ASP) is projected to be Rmb15,800/t in H225, down 4.8% from H125 [12] - **Capacity Developments**: Major capacity additions include Wanhua's Fujian Phase II (800ktpa) and other expansions from BASF and Covestro. Hualu-Hengsheng is also progressing on its TDI project [11][9] - **Export Challenges**: Tariff and anti-dumping impacts are expected to persist, but Wanhua is positioned to mitigate some effects by exporting from European facilities [13] Refrigerants - **Price Increases**: Major refrigerants saw price increases in H125, with R32 and R134a rising significantly due to strong demand from household and automotive sectors. R32 prices are expected to reach Rmb51,000/Rmb65,000/t in 2025/2026 [15][16] - **Weakness in R22/R125**: R22 and R125 prices are under pressure due to weak demand and high inventory levels, with cautious outlooks for H225 [15][16] Electrolytes - **Cautious Price Outlook**: The electrolyte expert projects prices to fluctuate between Rmb15,000-20,000/t in H225, primarily due to oversupply and strong bargaining power of downstream companies [4][17] - **Capacity Growth**: LiPF6 capacity is expected to increase by 8% to 424ktpa in 2025, with current utilization rates remaining low [18] - **Capacity Exits**: It may take 2-3 years for smaller capacity exits to occur, as marginal firms continue to operate despite losses [19] Urea - **Export Dynamics**: Urea exports are crucial for balancing domestic supply-demand. A quota of 3.5mt has been granted for July-October, with potential for additional quotas [5][23] - **Pricing Trends**: Urea ASP is expected to rise to Rmb1,800-1,880/t in July-August due to export and agricultural demand, but may drop to Rmb1,680-1,780/t later in the year due to increased supply [25] - **Capacity Expansion**: Domestic urea capacity is projected to grow, with total capacity expected to reach 79.11mtpa by end-2025 [21] Additional Insights - **Market Risks**: The chemicals sector faces risks from price fluctuations due to international oil prices, macroeconomic uncertainties, and rapid capacity additions that could weaken fundamentals [26] - **Regulatory Environment**: The Chinese government is promoting anti-involution policies, which may impact the operational landscape for chemical firms [24] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the chemicals sector in China.