国泰海通晨报 2026 年 01 月 29 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【策略研究】：本轮全球宽松周期下，各类资产关联度上升，新任美联储主席的变动有望重塑 全球货币政策路径与市场空间。 2、【建筑工程研究】华电科工：2025 全年公告重大合同同比增 83.8%，其中 2025Q4 重大合同同 比增 87.1%。重大合同快速增长，并将在后续不断落地，预示公司基本面有望受益提升。 3、【美妆研究】若羽臣：公司公告预计 2025 年归母净利润 1.76-2 亿元，同比+67%-89%，主要受 益自有品牌及品牌管理业务加速成长，看好旗下绽家、斐萃等多品牌高增，打开成长天花板。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 方奕(分析师) 021-38031658 fangyi2@gtht.com S0880520120005 黄维驰(分析师) 021-38032684 huangweich ...

Group 1 - The company is expected to undergo a systematic revaluation of its value driven by the gradual release of new product performance, leading product quality in the housing sector, and the capital cycle being facilitated by commercial REITs [1] - The investment recommendation is to maintain a "buy" rating, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 1.18, 1.19, and 1.32 CNY, and a target price of 20.3 HKD based on a 0.5X PB for 2026 [1] - The transition between old and new projects is progressing, with high-quality new investments expected to drive performance recovery as historical inventory projects are gradually liquidated [1] Group 2 - The company has launched the Living OS system, integrating safety, comfort, sustainability, and intelligence into the design, construction, and operation phases, which is expected to create a differentiated advantage in the market [2] - The commercial operation is forming a second growth curve, with the successful listing of the first commercial REITs in 2025 marking a breakthrough in the acquisition, renovation, operation, and exit path [2] - The continuous operation of the REITs platform is anticipated to lower capital costs and enhance asset turnover efficiency, providing long-term valuation and return elasticity for the company's commercial sector [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [1]. Core Insights - As an industry leader, the company is expected to undergo a systematic revaluation driven by the gradual release of new product performance, leading product quality, and the integration of commercial REITs to enhance capital circulation [2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be RMB 202.524 billion in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 12.3%. However, it is expected to decline to RMB 185.154 billion in 2024, a decrease of 8.6%, and further decline in subsequent years [4]. - Gross profit is forecasted to decrease from RMB 41.153 billion in 2023 to RMB 32.765 billion in 2024, with a recovery to RMB 27.085 billion by 2027 [4]. - Net profit is expected to drop significantly from RMB 25.610 billion in 2023 to RMB 15.636 billion in 2024, with a gradual recovery to RMB 14.499 billion by 2027 [4]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to increase from 5.27 in 2023 to 10.30 in 2025, before stabilizing at 9.21 in 2027 [4]. - The PB ratio is expected to remain stable around 0.33 from 2025 to 2027 [4]. Market Data - The current stock price is HKD 13.64, with a market capitalization of HKD 149.288 billion and a 52-week price range of HKD 12.00 to HKD 15.26 [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a "Buy" rating, with an estimated EPS of RMB 1.18, RMB 1.19, and RMB 1.32 for 2025-2027. The target price is set at HKD 20.3 for 2026, based on a PB of 0.5X [8]. - The company is transitioning between old and new projects, with high-quality new investments expected to drive performance recovery. The focus is on prime locations in first-tier and strong second-tier cities, enhancing project quality [8]. - The company’s "Good House" initiative is expected to lead industry trends, with a comprehensive product system and technological integration providing a competitive advantage [8]. - The commercial operations are forming a second growth curve, with the successful launch of the first commercial REITs in 2025 marking a breakthrough in capital efficiency and asset valuation [8]. Company Overview - Established in 1979, the company has extensive experience in real estate development and property management, operating in over 80 cities in China and several countries [14]. - The company is a leading developer of office buildings in China and has a strong focus on urban renewal and comprehensive development [15][16]. - The company is backed by China Overseas Group, a top-tier investment and construction service provider, enhancing its operational capabilities [21].

公司发布Living OS系统，将安全、舒适、绿色与智慧理念系统化嵌入设计、建造与运维全周期，并通 过示范项目实现落地验证。随着改善型需求占比提升，具备完整产品体系与科技导入能力的房企有望在 新一轮格局重塑中形成差异化优势，公司产品力有望持续转化为销售韧性与定价能力。 商业运营构成第二增长曲线，REITs打通资本循环提升价值弹性 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通证券发布研报称，维持中国海外发展(00688)"增持"评级。作为行业龙头， 在新货业绩逐步释放、好房子产品力引领及商业REITs打通资本循环的共同推动下，公司价值有望迎来 系统性重估。给予公司2025-2027年EPS为1.18/1.19/1.32元，参考可比公司，充分考虑公司资产质量、业 务发展空间、战略规划等，给予公司2026年PB 0.5X，目标价20.3港元。 国泰海通证券主要观点如下： 新旧项目切换推进，优质新增投资有望驱动业绩修复 随着公司历史库存项目逐步去化、结转压力释放，住宅开发业务正进入新旧项目切换阶段。2025年以来 公司逆周期加大投资力度，新增项目高度集中于一线及强二线城市核心优质地块，项目质量显著提升。 在此背景下，新项目利润贡献有 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [1] Core Views - As an industry leader, the company's value is expected to undergo systematic re-evaluation driven by the gradual release of new product performance, the leading product quality of "good houses," and the unlocking of capital cycles through commercial REITs [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be RMB 202.524 billion in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 12.3%. However, it is expected to decline to RMB 185.154 billion in 2024, a decrease of 8.6%, and further decline in the following years [4] - Gross profit is expected to decrease from RMB 41.153 billion in 2023 to RMB 32.765 billion in 2024, with a net profit forecasted to drop from RMB 25.610 billion to RMB 15.636 billion in the same period [4] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to increase from 5.27 in 2023 to 7.78 in 2024, while the PB ratio is expected to decrease from 0.36 to 0.32 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a "Buy" rating, with an estimated EPS of RMB 1.18, 1.19, and 1.32 for 2025-2027. The target price is set at HKD 20.3 based on a PB of 0.5X for 2026 [8] - The transition between old and new projects is expected to drive performance recovery, with new investments concentrated in prime locations in first-tier and strong second-tier cities [8] - The company’s "good house" initiative is anticipated to lead industry trends, enhancing product strength and long-term competitive advantages [8] Business Operations - The company has established a multi-format commercial operation system centered on office buildings and shopping centers, with stable cash flow and continuous expansion [8] - The successful listing of the first commercial REITs in 2025 marks a breakthrough in the company's asset management strategy, enhancing capital efficiency and long-term valuation [8] Financial Analysis - The company is expected to maintain a strong financial position with a focus on cost control and stable dividend payouts [13] - The development segment contributes over 90% to profits, with a recovery in gross margins anticipated [13] - The company’s liquidity remains strong, with a stable dividend yield [11]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the Chinese real estate industry is entering a new phase of value competition amid deep adjustments, shifting its core competitiveness from scale and speed to product quality, operational service, and sustainable professional capabilities. Brand communication has transformed into a multi-dimensional value output focused on "hardcore product strength," "warm community strength," and "entrusted professionalism" [1]. Group 1: Brand Development - The year 2025 marks a significant transformation in the industry, with the "Good House" standard becoming a key driver for brand development and product quality, as it is integrated into government work reports and residential regulations [8]. - Many companies are releasing updated "Good House" standards, with Green City China updating its standards to include 270 core guidelines, while Jianfa Real Estate has introduced a four-dimensional framework for its "Good House" system [9]. - The launch of innovative community projects under the "Good House" framework, such as Darwin Camp and zero-carbon community projects, has garnered high attention and engagement [10]. Group 2: Community Brand - The real estate industry is evolving from "space construction" to "relationship cultivation," focusing on community warmth, neighborly relations, and growth experiences [16]. - Leading companies are creating community ecosystems that foster recognition, participation, and continuity, with community operations becoming a key aspect of post-delivery services [21]. - Initiatives like the "Children-Friendly" program by China Railway Real Estate and various health and wellness activities by companies like China Railway and Fuyue Property highlight the industry's focus on enhancing living experiences for residents [17][18]. Group 3: Construction Brand - In 2025, brand communication in real estate construction is characterized by a focus on "stronger companies, technology-driven, and value deepening," with an emphasis on comprehensive strength and differentiated value [22]. - The integration of AI technology in construction processes, such as the AI cooling station control system developed by Longfor, showcases the industry's commitment to innovation and efficiency [22]. - The establishment of industry standards, such as the "Comprehensive Capability Evaluation Standard for Construction Enterprises," enhances brand credibility and positions companies as authoritative figures in the market [23]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The brand communication landscape in the real estate sector is becoming increasingly structured, with product brands focusing on the "Good House" concept, community brands emphasizing human connections, and construction brands building on professionalism and technological capabilities [26]. - Future brand strategies will likely integrate product innovation, community engagement, and digital capabilities, allowing companies to create perceivable and trustworthy brand assets that provide a competitive edge in the evolving market [26].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the construction of "good houses" is a strategic development direction for residential products, transitioning from policy concepts to industry practices, and is expected to become a long-term trend in the real estate market [1][3][72] - The demand for better housing quality is driven by urbanization and changing consumer expectations, with buyers increasingly prioritizing quality, environment, and amenities over mere availability [3][5][6] - The implementation of price control policies has led to a decline in housing quality, prompting the industry to shift focus from scale to quality in response to growing consumer complaints and a crisis of trust [4][5][6] Group 2 - Leading real estate companies are launching "good house" strategies that focus on safety, comfort, green living, and smart technology, with measurable technical standards to ensure implementation [7][8][10] - Companies like China Overseas and Greentown are establishing comprehensive technical standards that cover the entire lifecycle of design, construction, and service, reflecting a trend towards refined management [8][9][10] - The shift from being mere "space providers" to "technology solution service providers" is evident, as companies leverage standardized technology and service ecosystems to create long-term value [9][10] Group 3 - The article outlines five key dimensions of "good houses": safety performance, comfort and livability, green and low-carbon design, smart technology, and community environment [3][31][54] - Innovations in spatial efficiency and flexible design are becoming critical indicators of housing quality, with companies optimizing building structures and multifunctional spaces to enhance living experiences [31][32][36] - Health and environmental quality are being addressed through comprehensive solutions that go beyond basic physical indicators, incorporating multi-sensory experiences to improve overall living conditions [45][49] Group 4 - The future of "good house" construction is expected to be a continuous process of deepening and refining, with policies evolving to support differentiated designs and technical standards for various market segments [72][73] - The industry is transitioning from traditional scale expansion to quality enhancement, with a focus on the four dimensions of safety, comfort, green living, and smart technology, leading to a more integrated and innovative development approach [72][73]

Core Viewpoint - The construction of "good houses" is a strategic development direction for residential products, transitioning from policy concepts to industry practices, and is expected to become a long-term trend in the real estate market [1][3]. Group 1: Development and Policy Background of "Good Houses" - The demand for "good houses" is driven by urbanization and a shift in consumer expectations from merely having a house to living in a quality home [3][5]. - The industry's transformation is influenced by policies such as "housing is for living, not for speculation," leading to price control measures that have impacted profit margins for real estate companies [4][5]. - As quality issues in housing become more prominent, the industry is shifting focus from scale to quality, making "good houses" a consensus and development direction [6][5]. Group 2: Real Estate Companies' "Good House" Strategies and Case Studies - Leading real estate companies like Poly, China Overseas, and China Resources are launching "good house" strategies focusing on safety, comfort, green living, and smart technology [7][8]. - Companies are establishing comprehensive technical standards that cover the entire lifecycle from design to service, reflecting a shift towards refined management [8][9]. - The strategies are transitioning from qualitative claims to quantifiable controls, with companies like China Overseas achieving measurable improvements in sound insulation and pollution reduction [8][9]. Group 3: Five Dimensions of "Good House" Product Practices - Safety performance is emphasized as the first guarantee of quality living [30]. - Comfort and livability have evolved from merely increasing physical space to optimizing space efficiency and human-centered design [31][32]. - Health environment assurance has shifted from basic physical indicators to a multi-dimensional approach that includes sound, light, air, and water quality [44][45]. - Green and low-carbon initiatives are integrated into daily life through innovative designs and technologies [52]. - Smart technology is advancing from passive control to proactive service, enhancing user experience through intelligent systems [53][59]. Group 4: Future Outlook for "Good Houses" - The construction of "good houses" will be a continuous process of deepening and refining, with policies expected to become more detailed and standardized [70]. - The industry will continue to transition from traditional scale expansion to quality enhancement, focusing on the four dimensions of safety, comfort, green living, and smart technology [70].

Core Insights - China Overseas Development (中海发展) has been recognized for its outstanding sustainable development performance, achieving a low-risk ESG rating of 13.9 from Sustainalytics, placing it in the top 3% of global companies assessed, an improvement from the previous year's top 10% [1] - The company focuses on a "Four Good Company" strategy, emphasizing good products, services, benefits, and citizenship, which supports its sustainable growth path [1][2] - The real estate market is stabilizing, with healthy financials and clear strategies giving companies like China Overseas Development a competitive edge [2] Financial Performance - As of the end of 2024, the company maintained a low net debt ratio of 38.7% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 2.3, with a weighted financing cost of only 3.28%, indicating strong financial health [2] - In the first seven months of 2025, the company achieved contract property sales of 132 billion yuan and spent approximately 55 billion yuan on land acquisition, showcasing its effective investment strategy [3] Product Innovation - In April 2025, the company launched the Living OS system, the first intelligent living standard in the industry, which integrates technology and innovation to redefine housing experiences [4] - The Living OS system includes 16 product systems and 172 comprehensive demand responses, focusing on safety, comfort, and sustainability [4] Market Recognition - The company's products have gained significant market recognition, with projects like Shanghai Yun Di Jiu Zhang selling out immediately and high customer traffic at the Beijing Wan Ji Jiu Xu exhibition [5] ESG and Sustainability - China Overseas Development integrates corporate social responsibility and green low-carbon concepts into its strategy, receiving recognition for its efforts in sustainable practices [7] - The company has achieved numerous green building certifications, with over 673 certifications covering more than 1.1 million square meters, highlighting its leadership in the green building sector [7] Strategic Outlook - The company is positioned to navigate industry adjustments and transformations through financial discipline, product innovation, and a commitment to sustainability, demonstrating a holistic approach to development [8]

Core Viewpoints - The concept of "Good House" has become the core guiding principle for brand communication among real estate companies in the first half of 2025, with firms focusing on product, marketing, and community engagement to enhance brand recognition and influence [1][3]. Group 1: Product Development - Real estate companies are innovating in product creation. For instance, Jianfa Real Estate utilizes a "culture-value-strategy-technology" framework to build a new Chinese-style product system, highlighting craftsmanship through four major product series [1]. - China Overseas Land & Investment has launched the Living OS system, which includes 16 product systems to meet 172 customer needs, promoting an image of "comprehensive service" [1]. - Xiangyu Real Estate's "Lifetime Home" brand aligns with specific spiritual values and high-end product lines to meet customer demands [1]. Group 2: Marketing Innovation - Real estate firms are leveraging AI and new media to break through communication limitations. Poly Development initiated the "Starry Sky Plan - Star Sea Alliance," aggregating numerous online influencers and fans for an upgraded marketing strategy [1]. - Huafa Group's "Home with AI Understands You Better" campaign attracted significant user participation through immersive experiences, achieving both sales conversion and brand exposure [1]. - Deep Industry Group's "May AI Purchase Festival" integrated AI robots into various scenarios to enhance brand innovation [1]. Group 3: Community Engagement - Community operations are crucial for implementing brand values. Greentown China expanded its community through the "Hundred Flowers Neighborhood Festival," enhancing homeowner belonging [1]. - China Resources Land combined sports and ESG concepts in its activities to shape a responsible real estate image [1]. - China Merchants Shekou's "24-Hour Global Spring Viewing Live Broadcast" broke regional limitations to convey brand positioning [1]. Group 4: Brand Communication Rankings - In the brand communication power rankings for the first half of 2025, Greentown China, Poly Development, and China Resources Land ranked in the top three due to their comprehensive advantages, followed closely by China Overseas Land & Investment and China Merchants Shekou, showcasing strong brand competitiveness [2].