闪德资讯，一个聚焦关注存储产业供应链和趋势变化的垂直媒体。 在库存方面，第三季存货降至约101亿元，较第二季的121亿元明显下滑，显示库存持续去化，有助后续毛利率修复。 机构指出，随着国际主要竞争对手逐步退出市场，以及车载与工业控制市场需求回暖，旺宏营运前景趋于乐观。 特别是NOR Flash价格在上半年有望延续上涨态势，使旺宏有机会在上半年实现扭亏为盈的目标。 制程方面，SLC NAND将由36纳米转进19纳米，有助降低单位成本。 同时，国际大厂陆续退出MLC NAND市场，也将提升旺宏在eMMC与相关应用的出货机会。 据闪德资讯获悉，旺宏电子内部公布了最新业绩。 2025年12月合并营收金额为26.32亿新台币，金额达26.32亿，较11月的24.44亿增长7.7%，较2024年同期大幅增长44.9%。 累计第四季度合并营收为77.33亿，较第三季度下滑超5%，与2024年同期相比略有下降。 2025年全年合并营收达288.8亿，同比增长11.6%。 ...

来源：芯世相 今年，存储芯片应该是现货市场最火爆的品类，价格一路上涨，市场情绪也仍在升温。可与此同时，假货、假标等问题似乎也在变多，风险正悄悄跟着热 度一起上涨。有分销商表示，自己短时间内已经遇到两起存储芯片标签异常。 阅读本文你将了解：存储芯片出现假标，到底咋回事？验货验标有哪些注意事项和细节？热闹的存储市场，发生了哪些变化？做存储的人越来越多，大家 都赚到钱了吗？ 01 热闹的存储市场 开始出现假标了 最近，有芯片分销商Amy向我们分享了两个案例。 第一个案例是Amy自己遇到的。前不久，Amy求购两颗热门存储芯片，一颗美光的8Gb的DDR3以及一颗三星8Gb的DDR4。一个熟悉的供应商说自己有 货，于是Amy便与他开始谈单。虽然是熟人，但保险起见Amy还是让对方先给标签拍张照片，然后把照片发给了公司的质检人员查看。 没想到，真的有问题。质检人员反馈，这个标签的格式和正常的不一样，怀疑是假标。当Amy去询问对方时，对方承认了换标，但否认是假货，声称是工 厂对这批货换标了。最终，Amy还是放弃了这笔单子。 另一个案例，是Amy熟悉的一个客户正在找一颗存储的料，又正好看见另一个认识的供应商在推这颗料，Amy想着 ...

阅读本文你将了解： 存储芯片 出现假标，到底咋回事？验货验标有哪些注意事项和细节？热闹的 存储市场，发生了哪些变化？做 存储的人越来越多，大家都赚到钱了吗？ 我是芯片超人花姐，入行20年，有50W+芯片行业粉丝。 有很多不方便公开发公众号的， 关于芯片买卖、关于资 源链接等， 我会分享在朋友圈 。 扫码加我本人微信 今年 ， 存储芯片应该是现货市场最火爆的品类，价格一路上涨，市场情绪也仍在升温。可与此同 时， 假货、假标 等问题似乎也在变多，风险正悄悄跟着热度一起上涨。 有 分销商表示， 自己 短 时间 内 已经 遇到两起存储芯片标签异常。 向供应商询问，结果对方坚持自己的货没问题，为了避免后续争执，这个单子也取消了。 两件案例的时间只隔了一个周末，好在都及时发现了问题，还没有签合同，也没有造成任何损失。 这两个案例都是从标签上看出了问题，Amy表示，质检人员说，两个都是标签格式有问题，而 且"假"得比较明显， "会看的人，一眼假"。 此外，近期在社交媒体上，也有很多人晒出了自己遇到的存储芯片的假货或假标事件。 他出示一颗海力士的存储颗粒，表示："明显是'盖了面'，盖的是8+1 （8G +1G ） 的海力士的 ...

Group 1 - The storage chip sector has seen a significant surge, with companies like Maiwei Co., Ltd. (300751) rising over 18%, and others like Shannon Semiconductor (300475) and Jiangbolong (301308) increasing by approximately 15% [1] - Reports indicate that the spot prices of storage chips have skyrocketed recently, with DDR4x particles experiencing a price increase of over 400% this year, leading to a "hoarding" phenomenon in the supply chain [1] - End manufacturers, such as mobile phone producers, are facing historically low inventory levels, generally below 4 weeks, which is below the healthy range of 8-10 weeks, resulting in a "passive replenishment" situation under supply chain constraints [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities notes that since September, the storage market has shifted to a seller's market, with price increases spreading across all categories and accelerating [2] - Looking ahead, enterprise SSD contract prices for NAND are expected to rise by over 50% in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, while DDR4 8Gb products have seen a price increase of approximately 350% from March to September [2] - The overall storage sector is in the early stages of a super cycle, with high visibility of shortages expected to continue at least until the end of 2026, indicating a positive outlook for the sustainability of this structural cycle [2]

Greater China Semiconductors | Asia Pacific M Idea Old memory: keeps surprising to the upside We believe the pricing power of DDR4, MLC NAND, and NOR is getting even stronger into 2026. We reiterate our bullish view on all our covered old memory stocks. Top Pick Winbond. Key Takeaways December 4, 2025 08:00 PM GMT Not the time to take profits: Starting from late 2Q, we had expected that old memory undersupply would drive a super-cycle (link). We also built our own DDR4, SLC, MLC, and NOR Flash model (link). ...

Summary of Conference Call on Greater China Semiconductors Industry Overview - The focus is on the **old memory** segment within the **semiconductor industry** in Greater China, particularly regarding **DDR4** and **NAND** memory products [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Market Correction and Outlook - There has been a **correction in stock prices** of old memory players, but the outlook remains **bullish** on old memory, with **Winbond** identified as a **Top Pick** [1][2]. - A **structural DDR4 supply shortage** is anticipated, alongside significant **pricing upside** due to a widening undersupply gap in **MLC NAND** and **NOR** [2]. Capacity Expansion - There is **no major DDR4 capacity expansion** expected from the big three vendors or **CXMT**, as they are focusing on **HBM4/HBM3e** and **DDR5** to pursue a larger **Total Addressable Market (TAM)** [3]. - **Winbond** plans to expand its DDR4 capacity from **15kwpm** to **24-25kwpm** by **2027**, but this will not alleviate the supply shortage expected in **2026**, where Winbond is projected to account for only **~12%** of total capacity supply [4]. Demand Resilience - Demand for **legacy DRAM** remains resilient post-price hikes due to: 1. Impracticality of shifting from **DDR4 to DDR5** for certain applications. 2. Risks to system stability and compatibility with DDR5. 3. Low percentage of DRAM in the **Bill of Materials (BOM)** for various systems [5]. Memory Cycle and Valuation - The memory cycle typically spans **4-6 quarters**, and the current cycle is only about **two quarters** in. The **DDR4 structural supply shortage** and pricing upside are unprecedented, driven by the **AI megatrend** [6]. - There is potential for further price hikes, with **DDR4 contract pricing** expected to rise multiple times from the trough, and spot prices may also see an increase due to low inventory levels [6]. Recent Price Correction - The recent correction in memory pricing is attributed to **technical and positioning factors** rather than fundamental changes in pricing, earnings outlook, or supply-demand dynamics. A recommendation to **buy on dips** is suggested [7]. Additional Insights - The **valuation methodology** for Winbond is based on a **3.0x 2026e P/B**, reflecting the industry's high volatility and strong DRAM pricing upside [11]. - Risks to the upside include stronger-than-expected demand for **NOR Flash** and **DRAM pricing**, while risks to the downside involve potential oversupply and slower development in **SLC NAND** [13]. Conclusion - The semiconductor industry, particularly in the old memory segment, is poised for significant developments despite recent stock price corrections. The focus on DDR4 and the strategic moves by companies like Winbond indicate a complex but potentially lucrative landscape for investors in the coming years.

Summary of Conference Call on Greater China Semiconductors Industry Overview - **Industry**: Greater China Semiconductors - **Focus**: Memory products, particularly DDR4 and NAND Flash technologies Key Points Demand and Pricing Trends - **DDR4 Demand**: DDR4 is critical not only for datacenter switches but also for GPU servers, CPU servers, and storage servers, indicating a structural demand that could lead to significant pricing hikes into Q1 2026 [3][10] - **HDD/eSSD Contribution**: HDD and eSSD are expected to account for approximately 7% of global DDR4 demand in 2025, with a significant rise anticipated in 2026 due to strong demand [4] - **Spot Pricing Concerns**: The market is overly concerned about high spot pricing for DDR4 16Gb, with expectations of upside due to low channel inventory [4] NAND Flash Market Dynamics - **MLC NAND Production Cuts**: Samsung's reduction in MLC NAND production could decrease global capacity by over 20%, leading to potential double-digit price increases in Q1 2026 [5] - **NOR Flash Supply Issues**: An undersupply of 3-5% for NOR Flash is expected to persist into 2026, driven by rising demand for CPU/GPU servers and TWS earbuds [5] Company-Specific Insights - **Top Picks**: Winbond is highlighted as a top pick, with expectations of significant gross margin expansion in 2026 due to pricing hikes across memory product lines [6][10] - **Price Target Adjustments**: Price targets for Winbond, Nanya, PSMC, and Macronix have been raised, reflecting improved market conditions and pricing power [8][10] - **Winbond's Earnings Estimates**: EPS estimates for Winbond have been increased by 2% for 2025, 36% for 2026, and 18% for 2027, driven by stronger pricing for specialty DRAM and NOR Flash [28] Valuation and Market Sentiment - **Valuation Methodology**: Winbond's price target is raised to NT$88, using a P/B multiple methodology, reflecting strong DRAM pricing upside and sustainable NOR pricing hikes [31][36] - **Market Sentiment**: The consensus rating distribution shows 89% of analysts rating the stocks as overweight, indicating strong market confidence [42] Risks and Considerations - **Market Volatility**: The semiconductor industry is characterized by high earnings volatility, which could impact stock valuations [31] - **Potential Headwinds**: There are anticipated headwinds for the logic business, which could affect overall market dynamics [43] Additional Insights - **Long-term Opportunities**: Engagement with multiple foundry partners and customers in the CUBE segment is expected to yield meaningful opportunities in 2026 [43] - **Regional Exposure**: Winbond has significant revenue exposure to Mainland China, which constitutes 40-50% of its market [46] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the semiconductor industry's dynamics, particularly in memory products, and the outlook for key players in the market.

Summary of Conference Call on Greater China Semiconductors Industry Overview - The focus is on the semiconductor industry, particularly memory products such as DDR4 and NAND - Demand for networking is expected to extend the lifespan of DDR4, leading to further increases in average selling prices (ASP) across vendors [1][2][3] Key Insights - **Data Center Demand**: Data centers are driving demand not only for mainstream memory but also for DDR4. Most networking switches, including Nvidia Spectrum and NVlink, still utilize DDR4, indicating a slower migration to DDR5 [3][4] - **DDR4 Supply and Demand Dynamics**: DRAM constitutes a low-single-digit percentage of the bill of materials (BOM) for switches, compared to approximately 30% for general servers. This suggests that vendors have little incentive to switch to DDR5 as long as DDR4 supply remains available. Even if DDR4 prices double, it would only represent about 5% of the switch BOM [4][9] - **NAND Market Potential**: There is potential upside for MLC NAND, with vendors like Macronix expected to introduce high-density MLC NAND in the next six months. The demand for legacy ROM is also anticipated to strengthen due to the launch of Nintendo Switch 2, which aligns with high digital gaming rates [5][9] Company-Specific Updates - **Winbond**: - Winbond has reported stronger-than-expected earnings, with gross margins estimated to have reached approximately 43% in September. The company is expected to benefit from the anticipated price hikes in memory during Q4 [6][9] - Price target raised from NT$50 to NT$65, reflecting a bullish outlook on the company's performance [30][34] - **Macronix**: Earnings estimates have been raised, with expectations for MLC 128Gb dies to be supported starting from Q2 2026. The company is also expected to benefit from the Nintendo Switch sales [6][9] - **Nanya Technology**: Target price lifted as it is seen as a major beneficiary of the DDR4 shortage [6][9] - **Powerchip**: Upgraded to Overweight despite being the least preferred memory stock, as it may surprise due to the strength of the DDR4/3 cycle [6][9] Financial Projections - Winbond's EPS estimates for 2025 have been revised to a loss of NT$0.01 from NT$0.22, with significant increases in EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 [25][30] - PSMC's EPS forecasts for 2025-27 have been slightly lowered due to depreciation impacts and lukewarm demand from logic [59][60] Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment remains bullish, with price targets raised across various vendors, indicating confidence in the memory market's recovery and growth potential [6][9][30] Additional Considerations - The market is currently underestimating the importance of DDR4 in enterprise and data center switches, which could impact future supply and demand dynamics [9] - The ongoing transition from DDR4 to DDR5 is not a primary focus for switch vendors, which may prolong the relevance of DDR4 in the market [3][4]

Group 1 - Sichuan provincial and municipal funds are actively investing in key industrial projects, including rocket transportation, integrated circuits, and biomedicine [1] - Sichuan Manufacturing Collaborative Development Fund has strategically invested in Chengdu Ridiwei Technology Co., Ltd., a key player in millimeter-wave SoC chips and active phased array microsystems [4] - The investment aims to accelerate the mass production and iterative upgrade of Ridiwei's core products, enhancing the resilience and security of Sichuan's electronic information industry chain [4] Group 2 - Beijing Xinghe Power Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd. completed a D-round financing of 2.4 billion yuan, marking the second-highest single financing amount in China's commercial aerospace sector [6] - The funds will be used to accelerate the development of the "Zhishenxing" reusable liquid rocket and "Gushenxing No. 2" medium solid rocket [6] - Xinghe Power's financing reflects a trend of increased funding for private rocket companies in China, with Sichuan state-owned assets actively participating [7] Group 3 - Chengdu Science and Technology Investment Group led an investment in Zhixun Innovation Technology Co., Ltd., focusing on the mass production of MLC NAND and future new products [9] - The investment will support the establishment of a second headquarters and a storage chip R&D and manufacturing base in Chengdu [9] - Chengdu Nuyret Medical Technology Co., Ltd. completed a D-round financing of approximately 800 million yuan, indicating strong market confidence in its development prospects [9]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant rebound, driven by supply shortages and price increases, particularly in DDR4 memory chips, alongside technological advancements in optical computing [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The semiconductor sector has shown strong performance, with notable stocks like Shengyi Electronics, Kexiang Co., and Zhongfu Circuit rising over 10%, and several stocks hitting the daily limit [1][2]. - The semiconductor ETF saw a rise of over 1%, indicating a positive market sentiment and a potential shift in investor focus towards this sector [2]. Group 2: Supply-Side Dynamics - Trend Force reported a 53% month-on-month increase in DDR4 prices in May, marking the largest increase since 2017, with prices continuing to surge into June [2][3]. - Major DRAM manufacturers, including Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, have announced production halts for DDR4, leading to a supply crunch and increased prices for existing stock [3]. - The market is expected to see a reduction in DDR4 production starting in Q1 2024, which may benefit domestic companies through price increases and order transfers [4]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - A breakthrough in optical computing was reported by the Shanghai Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics, with the development of the "Meteor One" chip, which addresses high-density information processing challenges [3]. - This advancement is anticipated to enhance the performance of optical computing systems, paving the way for low-power, high-speed computing solutions [3]. Group 4: Demand-Side Trends - The consumer electronics sector is witnessing a recovery, with specific growth in AI and automotive applications driving demand for semiconductors [5]. - Global smartphone shipments are projected to grow by 1.5% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while PC shipments are expected to increase by 4.9% in the same period [6][7]. - The wearable technology market is experiencing significant growth, with AI glasses expected to see a 216% increase in shipments year-on-year in Q1 2025 [8].