Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computing chip industry, particularly focusing on domestic GPU manufacturers [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the development of large models follows the "Scaling Law," indicating a rigid expansion of computing power demand. This is supported by quantifiable data on AI application deployment and computing consumption, establishing a commercial link where "computing power is production material" [6]. - The GPU industry is characterized by a concentrated market structure, with major players like NVIDIA dominating the landscape. The report highlights the ongoing strategic partnerships between cloud giants and NVIDIA, reinforcing the latter's core position in AI infrastructure [6][7]. - The report analyzes the domestic GPU manufacturers' response to U.S. export restrictions, detailing their technological advancements and market strategies. Companies like Cambricon, Haiguang Information, Moore Threads, and Muxi are highlighted for their efforts to catch up with international standards [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. GPU's Role in AI - GPUs excel in parallel computing, making them suitable for AI acceleration. The architecture of GPUs allows for simultaneous processing of vast amounts of data, significantly reducing training times for AI models [11][12]. - The GPU industry value chain is primarily concentrated in the midstream, where AI chip demand drives market growth. The report notes that the global GPU market is expected to reach 1,051.54 billion yuan by 2024, with a significant portion attributed to AI computing GPUs [24][29]. 2. Global AI Investment Trends - Major global tech companies are increasing their investments in AI, with NVIDIA maintaining a dominant position. The report cites that NVIDIA holds a 98% market share in the data center GPU segment, underscoring its competitive edge [21][35]. - The report indicates that the AI investment cycle is achieving a closed loop, with companies like Google and Microsoft ramping up their capital expenditures significantly to support AI infrastructure [46][50]. 3. Domestic GPU Development - The report discusses the urgency for domestic GPU manufacturers to achieve self-sufficiency in light of U.S. export controls. Companies are making strides in product development and market entry, with varying degrees of commercial success [6][7]. - The report highlights the financial trajectories of domestic firms, noting that Haiguang Information achieved profitability in 2021, while Cambricon is expected to reach profitability by Q4 2024 [6][7]. 4. Market Projections - The report forecasts that the global GPU market will grow to 3,611.97 billion yuan by 2029, with China's share increasing from 15.6% in 2024 to 37.8% by 2029. AI computing GPUs are projected to be the core growth driver [24][29]. - The report anticipates that the demand for data center GPUs will continue to surge, with a projected market size of 663.92 billion yuan by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 70.1% [29][31].

Core Viewpoint - Cambricon's recent half-year report has shown explosive growth, with a revenue increase of 4347.82% year-on-year, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses to a net profit of 1.038 billion yuan [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Cambricon achieved operating revenue of 2.88 billion yuan, compared to 64.77 million yuan in the same period last year [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.038 billion yuan, a stark contrast to a loss of 530 million yuan in the previous year [2]. - Basic earnings per share improved from -1.27 yuan to 2.50 yuan [2]. - In Q2 alone, revenue was 1.769 billion yuan, up 4425.01% year-on-year, with a net profit of 683 million yuan, reversing a loss of 303 million yuan from the previous year [2]. Market Reaction - Following the report, Cambricon's stock surged nearly 14% on August 22, 2023, surpassing a market capitalization of 494 billion yuan, making it the largest company on the STAR Market [6][8]. - By August 27, the stock price rose over 8%, reaching 1438 yuan per share, with a market capitalization exceeding 570 billion yuan [8][11]. Competitive Landscape - Despite the impressive financial results, Cambricon still faces significant competition from international giants like NVIDIA, with its MLU590 chip's performance being only 6% of NVIDIA's GB200 [13][15]. - Cambricon's technology is still in the development phase, with its main products using 7nm process technology, while competitors have advanced to 4nm and are planning to adopt 3nm technology [13][15]. Customer Concentration - The company's revenue is highly concentrated, with its top five customers contributing 94.63% of total revenue, and the largest customer alone accounting for 79.15% [19]. - Historical data indicates that Cambricon has experienced fluctuations in its customer base, which poses risks to revenue stability [19]. Future Outlook - Cambricon's recent success is seen as a gamble on the demand for domestic AI chips, but the sustainability of this growth remains uncertain due to customer concentration and global competition [18][20]. - The company's ability to establish itself as a leading AI chip manufacturer will depend on its technological advancements and ecosystem development in the coming years [21].

Investment Rating - Industry View: In-Line [7] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing unprecedented demand driven by AI advancements and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the context of China's push for AI localization [4][8]. - The report highlights a decoupling between broader semiconductor cycles and AI growth, indicating that while overall semiconductor growth was slow at 10% year-over-year in 2024, AI-related demand continues to surge [10][13]. - Logic semiconductor foundry utilization is reported at 70-80% in the first half of 2025, suggesting that recovery is still ongoing [9]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Significant demand is anticipated from AI, with NVIDIA experiencing booming demand and its Days of Inventory (DOI) reaching a historical low [15]. - The report forecasts that the top six companies' capital expenditures (capex) will grow by 62% year-over-year to RMB 373 billion [30]. - China's GPU self-sufficiency ratio was 34% in 2024, expected to rise to 82% by 2027, with local GPU revenue projected to reach RMB 287 billion by 2027 [32][35]. Market Trends and Projections - The total addressable market (TAM) for cloud AI semiconductors is projected to grow to USD 235 billion in 2025, with edge AI semiconductors expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% from 2023 to 2030 [49][60]. - Inference AI semiconductors are forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 55% from 2023 to 2030, outpacing training and general-purpose chips [60]. - The report anticipates robust cloud capex spending of nearly USD 789 billion across 2025-2026, driven by major cloud service providers [49]. Supply Chain and Capacity - TSMC is expected to expand its CoWoS capacity significantly, with projections of producing 5.1 million chips in 2025 [61][70]. - AI computing wafer consumption is estimated to reach up to USD 15 billion in 2025, with NVIDIA accounting for the majority of this consumption [73]. - The report indicates that the semiconductor supply chain is under pressure, with GPU supply and demand needing time to align [70].