浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 新能源汽车行业 小鹏汽车（XPEV.US/9868.HK）：汽车毛利率 持续改善，预期四季度实现盈亏平衡 SPDBI 目标价 目前价 市场预期区间 资料来源：Bloomberg、浦银国际 小鹏汽车-W（9868.HK） 目标价（港元） 106.9 潜在升幅/降幅 +16% 目前股价（港元） 91.90 52 周内股价区间（港元） 27.55-106 总市值（百万港元） 175,208 近 90 日均成交额（百万港元） 1,631.6 注：股价截至 2025 年 8 月 22 日收盘 市场预期区间 USD 17.0 USD 23.8 USD 31.0 USD 27.4 HKD 91.9 重申小鹏汽车的"买入"评级。上调小鹏汽车（XPEV.US）目标价至 27.4 美元，潜在升幅 15%；上调小鹏汽车-W（9868.HK）目标价至 106.9 港 元，潜在升幅 16%。 图表 1：盈利预测和财务指标（2023-2027E） | 人民币百万元 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is on track to achieve breakeven in Q4 2025, supported by improved vehicle margins and a solid delivery scale, despite increased R&D guidance in the second half of 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, vehicle sales increased by 17.5% QoQ to RMB16.9 billion, driven by an improved product mix and a rise in average selling price (ASP) by 7.1% QoQ to RMB164,000 [2][3]. - The vehicle margin expanded significantly from 10.5% in Q1 to 14.3% in Q2, aided by an optimized product portfolio and cost-cutting measures [3]. - Non-GAAP net losses narrowed from RMB426 million in Q1 to RMB385 million in Q2, exceeding expectations [4]. Group 2: Delivery and Production Guidance - The company guided for Q3 2025 sales volume of 113,000 to 118,000 units, aligning with forecasts for average monthly sales of 38,000 to 41,000 units [5]. - The company anticipates a robust year in 2026 with a higher number of new and revamped models, including the introduction of two SUV models in the MONA series [5]. Group 3: Technological Developments - The CEO outlined a roadmap for the growth of the robotics business, including plans for mass production of L4 autonomous driving vehicles by 2026 and humanoid robots in the second half of 2026 [6]. - The company is also exploring external supply opportunities for its self-developed AI Turing chip, which could diversify revenue streams and enhance its technological leadership [6]. Group 4: Valuation and Forecasts - The sales volume forecast for 2025 has been slightly revised down to 460,000 units, while the 2026 delivery forecast has been increased to 630,000 units [7]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to RMB82.5 billion and RMB118.1 billion, respectively, reflecting the updated sales volume forecasts [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that BYD leads the domestic brand sales with a total of 2.145 million vehicles sold in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 33% [2][3] - New energy vehicle sales are experiencing significant growth, with BYD's sales reaching 378,000 units in June, a year-on-year increase of 11% [3] - The report notes that new entrants in the market, such as Leap Motor, Li Auto, and Xpeng, have shown strong performance, with Leap Motor achieving a record monthly sales of 48,000 units in June, a year-on-year increase of 138.7% [3] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - BYD's June sales reached 383,000 units, with a total of 2.145 million units sold in the first half of the year, achieving 39% of its annual target of 5.5 million units [3] - SAIC Group reported a wholesale sales figure of 365,000 units in June, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%, with a total of 2.053 million units sold in the first half of the year, up 12.4% year-on-year [3] - Geely's new energy vehicle sales in June were 122,000 units, accounting for 52% of its total sales, with a cumulative total of 725,000 units in the first half, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 126% [3] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the new energy vehicle segment is growing rapidly, with a 40.2% increase in sales for the segment [3] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with new models being launched and market dynamics shifting, impacting sales for some companies [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue in 1Q25 but managed to narrow its non-GAAP net loss to a record low due to improved gross margins and operational efficiency, alongside non-recurring income [1][5]. Financial Performance - 1Q25 revenue was largely in line with expectations, with vehicle sales dipping 2.1% QoQ to RMB14.4 billion, while average selling price (ASP) decreased by 4.7% to RMB153,000 due to a weakening sales mix [3]. - Gross margin improved from 10.0% in 4Q24 to 10.5% in 1Q25, despite temporary disruptions from inventory provisions and model switch losses [4]. - Non-GAAP net loss narrowed to RMB426 million, aided by a moderate optimization of the OPEX ratio to 24.8% and contributions from non-recurring items totaling RMB500 million [5]. Cash Flow and Position - The company reported strong free cash flow exceeding RMB3 billion in 1Q25, increasing net cash to RMB33.3 billion, which supports future growth initiatives [2][6]. Delivery Guidance and Future Outlook - The delivery guidance for 2Q25 is lower than previous estimates, with expected sales volume between 102,000 and 108,000 units, attributed to weaker demand during the model switch phase [7]. - Anticipated strong sales growth in 2H25 is expected from the launch of several new flagship models, including G7 and next-gen P7, which are crucial for brand enhancement [2][10]. Growth Strategies - The company aims to expand its growth beyond the AI vehicle business, targeting overseas markets and non-vehicle sectors, including humanoid robots, with plans for mass production starting in 2026 [8][9]. - The management expressed confidence in achieving a high-teens blended gross margin by 4Q25, supported by an optimized product portfolio and cost reduction efforts [4][12]. Valuation and Market Position - The company maintained its sales volume forecast for 2025-26 at 470,000 and 620,000 units, respectively, while adjusting non-GAAP net income forecasts to reflect improved gross margin expectations [9]. - Despite recent stock performance lagging behind competitors, the company remains optimistic about restoring sales momentum and profitability in the latter half of 2025 [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Xpeng, a Guangzhou-based electric vehicle maker, has experienced a significant surge in its stock price following strong earnings and an optimistic revenue forecast for the second quarter, reflecting robust sales momentum and a positive outlook for profitability [1][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Xpeng's first-quarter revenue more than doubled year-over-year, driven by strong sales, with 94,008 vehicles delivered, representing over four times the sales volume from the previous year [2]. - The company's net loss for the first quarter narrowed to 664 million yuan from 1.37 billion yuan a year ago, and its gross margin improved to 15.6% from 12.9% [2]. - For the second quarter, Xpeng anticipates revenue between 17.5 billion yuan and 18.7 billion yuan, exceeding the consensus forecast of 17.2 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Market Position and Competition - Xpeng is a key player in China's competitive electric vehicle market but has faced challenges in achieving profitability due to rising competition and sluggish domestic demand [3]. - Analysts expect Xpeng to turn profitable in the fourth quarter of this year, supported by strong sales momentum and a pipeline of new models, including the mass-market brand MONA and the flagship model X9 [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company aims to begin mass production of vehicles with Level 3 autonomous driving features by the end of the year, marking a significant upgrade from the more common Level 2 systems [4]. - Xpeng expects to deliver between 102,000 and 108,000 electric cars in the second quarter, a substantial increase of approximately 237.7% to 257.5% compared to the same period last year [5].