Core Insights - The luxury goods industry is showing signs of recovery in Q3 2025, with Greater China emerging as a key driver for performance improvement [1][2] - Many brands have either narrowed revenue declines or achieved positive growth, indicating a gradual restoration of consumer confidence [2][3] Industry Overview - The luxury goods sector is experiencing a clear bottoming-out and recovery trend, particularly in the Greater China market, which is crucial for boosting market confidence [2] - Despite some brands still facing slight revenue declines year-on-year, the rate of decline is decreasing, and several companies have reported their first positive growth since the pandemic [2][3] Brand Performance - **LVMH**: Achieved a quarterly sales rebound for the first time in 2025, with Q3 total revenue at €18.2 billion, down 4% year-on-year but showing 1% organic growth, driven by strong performance in Greater China [3] - **Prada**: Reported a 9% increase in net revenue to €4.07 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, with Q3 growth at 8%, highlighting significant improvement in mainland China sales [3] - **Hermès**: Q3 revenue grew by 9.6% to €3.9 billion, with improvements noted in the Chinese market, although slightly below market expectations [4] - **Kering**: Revenue declined by 10% to €3.42 billion in Q3, but the decline was less severe than previous quarters, indicating a recovery trend, particularly in the North American market [4] - **Burberry**: Reported a 3% growth in comparable store sales in Q2 FY26, indicating a recovery trajectory in Greater China, with adjusted operating profit turning from a loss to a profit [5][6] - **Moncler**: Experienced a 1% revenue decline to €616 million in Q3, reflecting challenges in brand strategy and market competition [6] Investment Recommendations - The luxury goods sector in the Asia-Pacific region is seeing a significant narrowing of sales declines, with some brands already showing year-on-year increases, suggesting a bottoming out of mid-to-high-end consumption [7] - The focus of the market has shifted from concerns about deep recession to validating the strength and sustainability of recovery, with the performance in China being a critical variable for future luxury goods performance [7] - Companies with strong brand power, clear strategies, and effective execution in the Chinese market are expected to better capitalize on the recovery, with recommendations to focus on LVMH, Prada, Hermès, and Burberry [7]

Core Viewpoint - Prada's retail sales for Q3 2025 met market expectations, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.6% at constant exchange rates, with the Prada and Miu Miu brands performing in line with expectations [1] Sales Performance - Prada's retail sales decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, while Miu Miu's sales increased by 29% year-on-year [1] - Over a two-year period, both brands demonstrated stable quarterly performance, with Prada's core brand showing a year-on-year growth of 1% in both Q2 and Q3 of this year, and Miu Miu showing significant growth of 136% and 134% respectively [1] Market Insights - The Chinese market for Prada's core brand is still experiencing negative growth, but there has been a quarter-on-quarter improvement in Q3 [1] - Positive growth was observed in the Americas, Europe, and Japan, driven by strong local demand and slightly improved tourism demand [1] - Management believes that the worst period in China has passed, and sales have continued to improve since October [1] Future Outlook - The management cautioned that the fourth quarter will be challenging due to tough comparisons, and the last six weeks of the year will be crucial for performance [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reported that Prada's sales in Q3 increased by 8.5% at constant exchange rates, slightly above market consensus, with retail sales growth of 7.6% aligning with expectations, driven primarily by the volatile wholesale channel [1] - Prada remains one of the fastest-growing groups, with growth rates nearly comparable to Hermès, significantly outpacing French luxury giants LVMH and Kering [1] - Morgan Stanley has lowered its earnings per share forecast for Prada for FY2025-2026 by 0.6% but maintains a target price of HKD 53, while keeping a "market perform" rating due to observed investment opportunities in the luxury sector [1] Group 2 - Market reaction to Prada's results is expected to be muted, as the company's revenue barely meets market expectations, leading to a forecast of price range fluctuations in the coming days or months [1] - Three main concerns are highlighted: increased competition in the creative field with the influx of new creative directors, potential loss of Miu Miu's competitive edge as a brand that has innovated and provided differentiated products [1] - A shift in fashion trends from minimalism to maximalism may disadvantage both Prada and Miu Miu, as more elaborate brands like Gucci gain popularity [1] Group 3 - The acquisition of Versace is projected to dilute the group's profit margins for at least the next few years, with estimated operating losses of EUR 150 million in FY2026 and EUR 120 million in FY2027, indicating minimal profit growth for the group [2] - Morgan Stanley has revised its revenue growth forecast for the group in 2025 down to 6.6% from an original 8.5%, while maintaining an EBITDA margin of 23.4% [2] - By brand, Prada's revenue is expected to decline by 1.3% year-on-year in Q4, while Miu Miu's revenue growth forecast is slightly adjusted down to 30% [2]

Core Insights - Prada Group reported a net revenue of €4.07 billion for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, representing an 8.9% year-over-year increase [1] Revenue Performance - Retail sales for the Prada brand decreased by 2% year-over-year when calculated at constant exchange rates, while Miu Miu's revenue surged by 41% [1] - Overall retail sales net revenue grew by 9.3%, accounting for 89.6% of total revenue [1] Regional Performance - Retail sales in the Asia-Pacific region increased by 10.4%, with a significant improvement in sales trends in mainland China during the third quarter [1] - The Americas market experienced a growth of 14.8%, continuing to accelerate in the third quarter [1] - The European market saw a growth of 6.3%, supported by stable local demand [1] - Japan and the Middle East recorded growth rates of 2.6% and 21.1%, respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - Prada's stock opened over 3% higher following the release of its financial results, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company's performance [1] Financial Performance - For the nine months ending September 30, 2025, Prada Group reported a net revenue of €4.07 billion, representing a 9% year-over-year increase at constant exchange rates [1] - Retail sales net revenue also increased by 9% year-over-year at constant exchange rates [1] - Prada's retail sales net revenue decreased by 2% year-over-year at constant exchange rates, while Miu Miu's retail sales net revenue surged by 41% [1] Regional Performance - All regions reported growth in retail sales net revenue at constant exchange rates compared to the same period in 2024: - Middle East: +21% - Americas: +15% - Asia-Pacific: +10% - Europe: +6% - Japan: +3% [1]

Core Insights - PRADA Group reported a net revenue of €2.74 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9% [1] - Retail sales reached €2.453 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 10%, and growth was observed across all regions [1] Regional Performance - Asia-Pacific region saw a revenue increase of 10% year-on-year [1] - European region experienced a revenue growth of 9% year-on-year [1] - Americas region reported a revenue growth of 12% year-on-year [1] - Japan's revenue increased by 4% year-on-year [1] - Middle East region achieved a significant revenue growth of 26% year-on-year [1] Brand Performance - In the first half of 2025, PRADA's retail sales decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a 3.6% decline in the second quarter [1] - The brand continues to interpret contemporary society in a diverse and multifaceted manner, with creative vitality driving the sustained enhancement of classic products [1] - Miu Miu maintained a strong growth momentum, with a 49% year-on-year increase in the first half of 2025 and a 40% increase in the second quarter [1] - The brand is actively exploring diverse expressions of femininity [1]