以下文章来源于凤凰WEEKLY ，作者叶子 凤凰WEEKLY . 有温度、有情感、有趣味 "薅羊毛"。 作者/ 叶子 编辑/闫如意 来源/凤凰WEEKLY (ID：phoenixweekly) 海南一封关，三亚提前过年了。免税店里挤满男女老少，捡漏队伍排到了商场大门。 稍晚一步，就会与1折失之交臂。 图源：小红书网友@ J u d y z e n g 9 9 9 虽然不清楚到底能买到点啥，但有一点却非常肯定，这一波羊毛必须薅。 如此密集的人群，任谁看到都忍不住问一句：大家怎么都忽然变得这么有钱了？ 苹果门店前长队蜿蜒，华为热销机型一度售罄，宝格丽小周忙到飞起； 而那一批最懂投资的中产，则是将目光盯上了"免税金"。 谁能想到，海南封关后，冲上第一的热搜，不是免税政策也不是消费品打折，而是：买 4 0克金饰能省1万多。 没错，第一批"薅羊毛"的中产，已经涌入海南"抢"金子了。 海南封关之后 金子更好买了 了解了一番价格后小k发现，虽然免税加上消费券，但算下来克价还是得要1 0 0 0+。 "被自己穷笑了，我差的根本不是那一点税。" 而真正有实力的朋友，不仅早已经大手一挥冲下4 4克实心镯子，还满意留下评论： 是的 ...

Core Insights - The recent closure of Hainan has transformed it into a shopping paradise, particularly for gold and luxury goods, attracting a surge of consumers eager to take advantage of tax exemptions and discounts [1][24][54] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The immediate aftermath of Hainan's closure saw a significant increase in demand for gold, with consumers flocking to duty-free stores to purchase gold jewelry at reduced prices, leading to long queues [4][5] - The price of gold in Hainan's duty-free stores is notably lower than in mainland China, with prices around 1194 RMB per gram compared to over 1368 RMB in mainland stores, allowing consumers to save over 160 RMB per gram [15][47] - Many consumers perceive purchasing gold in Hainan as a profitable investment rather than mere consumption, with reports of individuals buying gold at prices significantly lower than in other regions [21][23] Group 2: Luxury Goods and Consumer Behavior - The demand for luxury items, including the latest iPhone models, has surged, with discounts reaching up to 2000 RMB, making them highly sought after among consumers [27][37] - The influx of consumers has led to record sales figures for duty-free stores, with some reporting sales exceeding 100 million RMB over consecutive days [37] - The shopping frenzy is not limited to gold and electronics; consumers are also purchasing a variety of luxury goods at discounted prices, indicating a broader trend of increased consumer spending in Hainan [31][40] Group 3: Economic Implications - Hainan's transformation into a duty-free shopping hub is expected to contribute significantly to its GDP, driven by the influx of consumers and their spending habits [37][45] - The region is positioning itself as an attractive destination for investment, with favorable tax policies for businesses and high-income individuals, further enhancing its appeal as a commercial hub [47][54] - The strategic implications of Hainan's closure extend beyond consumer goods, as it aims to become a center for various industries, leveraging its tax advantages and increased product offerings [54][62]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a bizarre financial fraud case involving Nicolas Puech, the fifth-generation heir of Hermès, who lost a significant portion of his wealth due to the actions of his financial manager, leading to a dramatic decline in his financial status [4][6][35]. Group 1: Fraud Case Details - Nicolas Puech discovered that stocks worth 100 billion yuan had disappeared, leading him to sue Bernard Arnault, the chairman of LVMH, claiming his shares were taken [6][10]. - After an audit, it was revealed that Puech had only 600,000 euros in cash and approximately 96 million euros in illiquid investments, a stark contrast to his previous wealth [12][13]. - Puech's financial manager, Eric Fremont, had manipulated his assets over the years, leading to a court ruling against Puech due to lack of evidence [14][15]. Group 2: Financial Manager's Role - Fremont claimed that his expenditures were gifts to Puech, and he had been in a personal relationship with him, complicating the case further [16][18]. - The financial manager had previously encouraged Puech to convert his shares into bearer stocks, making them easier to transfer without Puech's knowledge [14][18]. - Fremont died in a train accident, which was ruled a suicide, leaving many questions about the missing assets unanswered [20][21]. Group 3: Impact on Hermès and Luxury Market - Hermès, a leading luxury brand, reported revenues of 15.2 billion euros and a net profit of 4.6 billion euros in 2024, with a net profit margin of around 30% [25]. - The luxury market is experiencing a downturn, with major brands like LVMH and Kering reporting declines in profits and revenues [43][44]. - The number of luxury consumers has decreased from 400 million in 2022 to approximately 340 million in 2025, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards more experiential spending rather than conspicuous consumption [47][48]. Group 4: Changing Consumer Trends - Older consumers are becoming more conservative, preferring investments in gold and jewelry, while younger consumers are shifting from ostentatious purchases to experiences [45][46]. - Luxury brands are attempting to reach a broader audience by engaging with everyday consumers, but these efforts have met with mixed reactions [52][54].

存款数字创五年新高，但没人敢说这是"富裕"。央行数据显示，2025年二季度居民存款突破128万亿元，同比激增12.3%。北京程序员小李的故事极具代表 性：他本打算换辆30万的中高档车，最终却将钱存入银行。不是不想消费，而是"怕下个月降薪，怕突然失业"。这种集体性防御心理，让社会消费品零售 总额增速始终徘徊在4%左右，远低于年初预期的5.5%。更讽刺的是，即便央行降准降息释放流动性，企业贷款难、百姓借钱谨慎的现象依然普遍——钱 在金融体系空转，就是流不到真正需要的地方。 房地产市场的反常更令人深思。首付比例降了，房贷利率历史新低，限购政策松了，但买房的人反而少了。2025年上半年，全国商品房销售面积同比下降 8.3%，销售额暴跌12.6%。上海同事王梅付七成首付买房，只因"不敢背太多债"。这种"恐贷症"背后，是居民实际收入增长2.8%却跑不赢CPI的残酷现 实。当"房住不炒"变成"房住不敢"，当一线城市人口净流出17.2万而二三线净流入26.8万，房租"倒挂"现象揭示的不仅是人口流动规律，更是城市吸引力 衰减的隐忧。 消费市场的分化达到前所未有的程度。一边是奢侈品市场寒冬——LV、香奈儿在华销售额两位数下滑，中 ...

Core Insights - The luxury goods industry is showing signs of recovery in Q3 2025, with Greater China emerging as a key driver for performance improvement [1][2] - Many brands have either narrowed revenue declines or achieved positive growth, indicating a gradual restoration of consumer confidence [2][3] Industry Overview - The luxury goods sector is experiencing a clear bottoming-out and recovery trend, particularly in the Greater China market, which is crucial for boosting market confidence [2] - Despite some brands still facing slight revenue declines year-on-year, the rate of decline is decreasing, and several companies have reported their first positive growth since the pandemic [2][3] Brand Performance - **LVMH**: Achieved a quarterly sales rebound for the first time in 2025, with Q3 total revenue at €18.2 billion, down 4% year-on-year but showing 1% organic growth, driven by strong performance in Greater China [3] - **Prada**: Reported a 9% increase in net revenue to €4.07 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, with Q3 growth at 8%, highlighting significant improvement in mainland China sales [3] - **Hermès**: Q3 revenue grew by 9.6% to €3.9 billion, with improvements noted in the Chinese market, although slightly below market expectations [4] - **Kering**: Revenue declined by 10% to €3.42 billion in Q3, but the decline was less severe than previous quarters, indicating a recovery trend, particularly in the North American market [4] - **Burberry**: Reported a 3% growth in comparable store sales in Q2 FY26, indicating a recovery trajectory in Greater China, with adjusted operating profit turning from a loss to a profit [5][6] - **Moncler**: Experienced a 1% revenue decline to €616 million in Q3, reflecting challenges in brand strategy and market competition [6] Investment Recommendations - The luxury goods sector in the Asia-Pacific region is seeing a significant narrowing of sales declines, with some brands already showing year-on-year increases, suggesting a bottoming out of mid-to-high-end consumption [7] - The focus of the market has shifted from concerns about deep recession to validating the strength and sustainability of recovery, with the performance in China being a critical variable for future luxury goods performance [7] - Companies with strong brand power, clear strategies, and effective execution in the Chinese market are expected to better capitalize on the recovery, with recommendations to focus on LVMH, Prada, Hermès, and Burberry [7]

Core Insights - The luxury goods market in China and the US is experiencing a significant downturn, with China's market recording negative growth for six consecutive quarters, leading to a projected decline in global luxury sales by 2% to 5% by mid-2025 [2][3][4] Group 1: Market Trends - After a period of explosive growth, luxury consumption in China has stagnated, prompting brands to seek rent reductions and operational support from shopping malls [2][3] - The shift in consumer preferences towards experience, emotion, and cultural relevance is causing a transformation in consumer profiles, making them more integrated and less distinct [2][10] - The luxury market is transitioning from a focus on material possession to experience and emotional consumption, indicating a profound change in retail dynamics [9][10] Group 2: Brand Performance - Major luxury brands are reporting disappointing financial results, with LVMH's revenue down 4% and net profit down over 20%, while Kering's net profit plummeted by 46% [4] - Brands are increasingly closing underperforming stores to concentrate resources on key locations, with Kering's closure plan rising from 50 to 80 stores [5][4] Group 3: Retail Strategies - Shopping malls are under pressure to support brands through rent reductions and marketing subsidies, as luxury brands demand more from mall operators [6][8] - Malls are adopting diverse promotional strategies, including immersive experiences and collaborations with artists, to attract consumers and enhance brand performance [7][11] - The market has shifted to a tenant-driven landscape, where the departure of a significant brand can trigger a chain reaction affecting other tenants and overall mall attractiveness [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The introduction of non-traditional luxury brands and experiential offerings is seen as a positive shift, helping malls attract a broader customer base and mitigate the impact of declining luxury sales [11] - However, this diversification poses challenges, as it may dilute the distinct positioning of high-end malls and lead to increased competition among similar offerings [11]

Core Insights - The luxury goods market in China, which experienced rapid growth a decade ago, is now facing a downturn, with significant declines in revenue and profit reported by major brands like LVMH [3][4][5] - In contrast, the market for near-expiry food products is witnessing explosive growth, with a projected market size exceeding 40 billion yuan and an annual growth rate of nearly 6% [4][10] Group 1: Luxury Goods Market Decline - In 2015, China's luxury goods market reached a peak size of 113 billion yuan, contributing significantly to global consumption [1] - By 2025, LVMH reported a 4% decline in revenue for Q2, with a 15% drop in operating profit and a 22% drop in net profit [3] - Bain & Company revised its forecast for the global luxury goods market, predicting a potential decline of 2% to 5% in sales for 2025 [3] Group 2: Rise of Near-Expiry Food Products - The near-expiry food market in China is projected to surpass 40 billion yuan this year, driven by a shift in consumer attitudes towards more practical and cost-effective purchasing [4][10] - The rapid expansion of near-expiry food chains, such as Haotemai, reflects a growing consumer preference for value-oriented shopping [4] - The trend indicates a fundamental change in consumer behavior from ostentatious luxury spending to rational and pragmatic consumption [4][10] Group 3: Changing Consumer Psychology - The shift in consumer behavior is attributed to a deep transformation in the consumption psychology of the middle class, moving from conspicuous consumption to practical spending [5][10] - The middle class's debt levels have risen above 50%, with a focus on cost-effectiveness and practical consumption dominating their purchasing decisions [5] - The economic environment has shifted from rapid growth to a more cautious approach, influencing consumer habits and preferences [7] Group 4: Generational Shift in Consumption - The primary consumers of luxury goods have shifted from the older generations (70s and 80s) to Generation Z, who prioritize cultural identity and self-expression over brand logos [8] - By 2025, online penetration of luxury goods is expected to reach 46%, with Generation Z accounting for 72% of transactions [8] - The second-hand luxury market is projected to grow significantly, indicating a shift towards circular consumption and away from new luxury purchases [8] Group 5: Future Trends in Consumption - The rise of near-expiry food signifies a new trend in middle-class consumption, emphasizing quality-price ratio and sustainable practices [10][11] - Future consumption patterns are expected to focus on experiential spending, with increased interest in high-end travel and cultural entertainment [10] - Companies are encouraged to adapt to the "new pragmatism" in consumer behavior, focusing on quality and value in their offerings [11]

Group 1 - Bernard Arnault, the CEO of LVMH, has been visiting China for three consecutive years, indicating the importance of the Chinese market for luxury brands [3] - LVMH, which owns brands like Louis Vuitton, Dior, and Tiffany, is facing challenges as the global luxury market is cooling down, with a projected decline in the number of luxury consumers from 400 million in 2022 to 350 million by the end of 2024 [3][4] - The luxury goods market is expected to see a total consumption of approximately €1.48 trillion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1%-3% [3] Group 2 - LVMH's revenue is projected to decline by 4% year-on-year to €39.81 billion in the first half of 2025, with net profit decreasing by 22% to €5.69 billion [3] - There is a growing interest among Chinese consumers in local brands, with LVMH planning to continue investing in China despite the market slowdown [4] - The overlap in consumer demographics between local brand Lao Pu Huang Jin and international luxury brands like LV and Cartier is significant, with a 77.3% overlap rate [4]

Core Insights - The luxury goods industry is experiencing a downturn, with major players like LVMH and Kering reporting significant declines in revenue and profits for the second quarter of 2025 [1][4][5] - The overall market sentiment has shifted, leading to a revised forecast for global luxury goods sales, now expected to decline by 2% to 5% in 2025 [1][4] Group 1: Company Performance - LVMH reported a 4% decline in revenue for Q2 2025, with operating profit down 15% and net profit down 22%, particularly affected by poor performance in its core fashion and leather goods segment [1] - Kering's Q2 revenue was €3.7 billion, a 15% year-on-year decline, with Gucci's sales down 26% for the sixth consecutive quarter, and net profit down 46% [1] - In contrast, Prada's Miu Miu saw a 40% increase in Q2 revenue, while Richemont exceeded market expectations with a 6% revenue growth in Q1 2026 [4] Group 2: Market Trends - The Japanese market has shown weak performance, with Kering's Asia-Pacific revenue down 21% and LVMH's revenue in Japan down 15% [5] - The luxury sector is witnessing a "layered" market dynamic, where some brands thrive while others struggle, indicating a divergence in performance across different companies [4] Group 3: Channel Restructuring - Many luxury brands are closing stores, with Kering planning to close 80 stores this fiscal year, focusing on optimizing their retail presence [7][9] - The strategy involves reducing the number of stores in lower-tier cities while concentrating resources in major urban centers to enhance brand visibility and consumer engagement [9][10] Group 4: Marketing Strategies - Luxury brands are adopting a more restrained marketing approach, focusing on quality over quantity, with Valentino and Hermès leading this trend by reducing the frequency of marketing events [11][12] - This shift aims to enhance brand perception and mitigate risks associated with excessive visibility and consumer backlash during economic downturns [12][13] Group 5: Conclusion - The luxury goods industry is undergoing a significant adjustment phase, with leading brands refocusing on core markets and adopting more subtle marketing strategies, moving away from aggressive growth tactics [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The viral video claiming that the LV flagship store in Shanghai was flooded during Typhoon "Zhu Jie Cao" has been debunked as false information, with local authorities confirming no significant water accumulation in the area [3][4]. Group 1 - The video showing flooding around the LV flagship store gained widespread attention on social media [1]. - On-site investigations revealed that there was no noticeable water accumulation in the vicinity of the LV store during the typhoon [3]. - Authorities have identified the viral video as a fabricated content and are currently investigating the creator and the spread of the video [4].