中泰证券（600918）发布研报称，2025年第三季度奢侈品行业显现触底回升态势，大中华区成为核心复 苏引擎，推动LVMH、Burberry等品牌业绩改善。多数品牌营收降幅收窄或实现正增长，消费者信心逐 步恢复，行业或已度过最困难时期，部分品牌进入复苏早期阶段。 中泰证券主要观点如下： 2025年Q3奢侈品行业展现出明确的触底回升态势 大中华市场的复苏已成为驱动业绩改善和提振市场信心的最关键主线。尽管部分奢侈品牌总营收同比仍 略有下滑，但下滑幅度收窄。多家公司实现疫情后时期的首次正增长，并成功扭亏为盈，奢侈品行业最 困难的时期可能已经过去。其中，大中华区的复苏引领以Burberry为代表，其大中华区最新季度可比销 售强劲增长3%，成功扭转上一季度的下滑态势。这种"前低后高"的季度走势在多家公司的财报中均有 体现，可能表明中国消费者信心和奢侈品消费需求正在稳步恢复。 奢侈品消费的积极信号同样在高奢商场的运营表现中得到印证。太古地产披露三季度运营数据，总体来 看其零售业务出租表现实现全面复苏，办公楼业务虽仍旧承压，但出租率稳中有升、租金调整幅度更为 平缓。 爱马仕：保持稳健，中国市场有所改善。2025年第三季度营 ...

Core Insights - The luxury goods market in China and the US is experiencing a significant downturn, with China's market recording negative growth for six consecutive quarters, leading to a projected decline in global luxury sales by 2% to 5% by mid-2025 [2][3][4] Group 1: Market Trends - After a period of explosive growth, luxury consumption in China has stagnated, prompting brands to seek rent reductions and operational support from shopping malls [2][3] - The shift in consumer preferences towards experience, emotion, and cultural relevance is causing a transformation in consumer profiles, making them more integrated and less distinct [2][10] - The luxury market is transitioning from a focus on material possession to experience and emotional consumption, indicating a profound change in retail dynamics [9][10] Group 2: Brand Performance - Major luxury brands are reporting disappointing financial results, with LVMH's revenue down 4% and net profit down over 20%, while Kering's net profit plummeted by 46% [4] - Brands are increasingly closing underperforming stores to concentrate resources on key locations, with Kering's closure plan rising from 50 to 80 stores [5][4] Group 3: Retail Strategies - Shopping malls are under pressure to support brands through rent reductions and marketing subsidies, as luxury brands demand more from mall operators [6][8] - Malls are adopting diverse promotional strategies, including immersive experiences and collaborations with artists, to attract consumers and enhance brand performance [7][11] - The market has shifted to a tenant-driven landscape, where the departure of a significant brand can trigger a chain reaction affecting other tenants and overall mall attractiveness [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The introduction of non-traditional luxury brands and experiential offerings is seen as a positive shift, helping malls attract a broader customer base and mitigate the impact of declining luxury sales [11] - However, this diversification poses challenges, as it may dilute the distinct positioning of high-end malls and lead to increased competition among similar offerings [11]

Core Insights - The luxury goods market in China, which experienced rapid growth a decade ago, is now facing a downturn, with significant declines in revenue and profit reported by major brands like LVMH [3][4][5] - In contrast, the market for near-expiry food products is witnessing explosive growth, with a projected market size exceeding 40 billion yuan and an annual growth rate of nearly 6% [4][10] Group 1: Luxury Goods Market Decline - In 2015, China's luxury goods market reached a peak size of 113 billion yuan, contributing significantly to global consumption [1] - By 2025, LVMH reported a 4% decline in revenue for Q2, with a 15% drop in operating profit and a 22% drop in net profit [3] - Bain & Company revised its forecast for the global luxury goods market, predicting a potential decline of 2% to 5% in sales for 2025 [3] Group 2: Rise of Near-Expiry Food Products - The near-expiry food market in China is projected to surpass 40 billion yuan this year, driven by a shift in consumer attitudes towards more practical and cost-effective purchasing [4][10] - The rapid expansion of near-expiry food chains, such as Haotemai, reflects a growing consumer preference for value-oriented shopping [4] - The trend indicates a fundamental change in consumer behavior from ostentatious luxury spending to rational and pragmatic consumption [4][10] Group 3: Changing Consumer Psychology - The shift in consumer behavior is attributed to a deep transformation in the consumption psychology of the middle class, moving from conspicuous consumption to practical spending [5][10] - The middle class's debt levels have risen above 50%, with a focus on cost-effectiveness and practical consumption dominating their purchasing decisions [5] - The economic environment has shifted from rapid growth to a more cautious approach, influencing consumer habits and preferences [7] Group 4: Generational Shift in Consumption - The primary consumers of luxury goods have shifted from the older generations (70s and 80s) to Generation Z, who prioritize cultural identity and self-expression over brand logos [8] - By 2025, online penetration of luxury goods is expected to reach 46%, with Generation Z accounting for 72% of transactions [8] - The second-hand luxury market is projected to grow significantly, indicating a shift towards circular consumption and away from new luxury purchases [8] Group 5: Future Trends in Consumption - The rise of near-expiry food signifies a new trend in middle-class consumption, emphasizing quality-price ratio and sustainable practices [10][11] - Future consumption patterns are expected to focus on experiential spending, with increased interest in high-end travel and cultural entertainment [10] - Companies are encouraged to adapt to the "new pragmatism" in consumer behavior, focusing on quality and value in their offerings [11]

Group 1 - Bernard Arnault, the CEO of LVMH, has been visiting China for three consecutive years, indicating the importance of the Chinese market for luxury brands [3] - LVMH, which owns brands like Louis Vuitton, Dior, and Tiffany, is facing challenges as the global luxury market is cooling down, with a projected decline in the number of luxury consumers from 400 million in 2022 to 350 million by the end of 2024 [3][4] - The luxury goods market is expected to see a total consumption of approximately €1.48 trillion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1%-3% [3] Group 2 - LVMH's revenue is projected to decline by 4% year-on-year to €39.81 billion in the first half of 2025, with net profit decreasing by 22% to €5.69 billion [3] - There is a growing interest among Chinese consumers in local brands, with LVMH planning to continue investing in China despite the market slowdown [4] - The overlap in consumer demographics between local brand Lao Pu Huang Jin and international luxury brands like LV and Cartier is significant, with a 77.3% overlap rate [4]

Core Insights - The luxury goods industry is experiencing a downturn, with major players like LVMH and Kering reporting significant declines in revenue and profits for the second quarter of 2025 [1][4][5] - The overall market sentiment has shifted, leading to a revised forecast for global luxury goods sales, now expected to decline by 2% to 5% in 2025 [1][4] Group 1: Company Performance - LVMH reported a 4% decline in revenue for Q2 2025, with operating profit down 15% and net profit down 22%, particularly affected by poor performance in its core fashion and leather goods segment [1] - Kering's Q2 revenue was €3.7 billion, a 15% year-on-year decline, with Gucci's sales down 26% for the sixth consecutive quarter, and net profit down 46% [1] - In contrast, Prada's Miu Miu saw a 40% increase in Q2 revenue, while Richemont exceeded market expectations with a 6% revenue growth in Q1 2026 [4] Group 2: Market Trends - The Japanese market has shown weak performance, with Kering's Asia-Pacific revenue down 21% and LVMH's revenue in Japan down 15% [5] - The luxury sector is witnessing a "layered" market dynamic, where some brands thrive while others struggle, indicating a divergence in performance across different companies [4] Group 3: Channel Restructuring - Many luxury brands are closing stores, with Kering planning to close 80 stores this fiscal year, focusing on optimizing their retail presence [7][9] - The strategy involves reducing the number of stores in lower-tier cities while concentrating resources in major urban centers to enhance brand visibility and consumer engagement [9][10] Group 4: Marketing Strategies - Luxury brands are adopting a more restrained marketing approach, focusing on quality over quantity, with Valentino and Hermès leading this trend by reducing the frequency of marketing events [11][12] - This shift aims to enhance brand perception and mitigate risks associated with excessive visibility and consumer backlash during economic downturns [12][13] Group 5: Conclusion - The luxury goods industry is undergoing a significant adjustment phase, with leading brands refocusing on core markets and adopting more subtle marketing strategies, moving away from aggressive growth tactics [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The viral video claiming that the LV flagship store in Shanghai was flooded during Typhoon "Zhu Jie Cao" has been debunked as false information, with local authorities confirming no significant water accumulation in the area [3][4]. Group 1 - The video showing flooding around the LV flagship store gained widespread attention on social media [1]. - On-site investigations revealed that there was no noticeable water accumulation in the vicinity of the LV store during the typhoon [3]. - Authorities have identified the viral video as a fabricated content and are currently investigating the creator and the spread of the video [4].

Core Insights - The luxury goods sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with LVMH reporting a significant decline in revenue while Burberry shows signs of recovery [1][2][8] Financial Performance - LVMH's total revenue decreased by 4% to €39.81 billion, with net profit down 22% to €5.7 billion, primarily due to macroeconomic uncertainties and weak demand in Asia [2] - Moncler reported stable revenue of €1.2257 billion, but EBIT fell by 13% to €225 million, attributed to higher marketing expenses [7] - Burberry's retail sales dropped by 6% to £433 million, but the decline is less severe compared to a 21% drop last year, indicating potential recovery [8] Strategic Moves - LVMH is reportedly in talks to sell Marc Jacobs, with a potential valuation of $1 billion, indicating a strategic shift [4] - Estée Lauder appointed Aude Gandon as Chief Digital and Marketing Officer to lead digital transformation and marketing strategies [5][6] - Chanel acquired a 20% stake in the Italian leather factory Nuova Impala, reinforcing its commitment to high-quality manufacturing [9] Market Trends - The luxury market is facing challenges, with LVMH's fashion and leather goods segment seeing a 7% organic revenue decline [2] - The UK retail sector is advocating for a new VAT-free shopping scheme to attract high-spending tourists, which could generate £3.7 billion annually [14] Brand Initiatives - Tiffany & Co. launched the "Love For Our Oceans" project to support mangrove wetland conservation, enhancing its sustainability image [11][12] - Pronovias appointed Cristina Alba Ochoa as CEO, aiming for a more market-driven expansion strategy [10] Events and Industry Developments - The 2026 Spring/Summer New York Fashion Week is scheduled for September 11-16, featuring over 60 shows, reflecting a shift towards a more diverse presentation format [15]

Core Insights - LVMH's luxury brand Louis Vuitton (LV) faced a data breach affecting approximately 420,000 customers in Hong Kong, adding to previous incidents in South Korea and China, totaling over one million affected customers in the Asia-Pacific region within two months [2][8][9] - The company issued a profit warning on July 23, indicating a continued decline in performance, with a projected revenue drop of 3% for the second quarter and a 6% decline in its fashion and leather goods segment [2][8] - The Hong Kong Privacy Commissioner is investigating the incident, which may take six months to a year, and if LV is found to have failed in correcting the breach, it could face criminal prosecution [4][9] Data Breach Details - The leaked data includes customer names, passport numbers, birth dates, addresses, email addresses, phone numbers, shopping records, and product preferences, but does not include payment information [6][8] - Similar data breaches have occurred with other LVMH brands, such as Dior, which also reported customer data leaks earlier this year, highlighting a trend of increasing data security issues within the luxury sector [8][9] Market Impact - LVMH's first-quarter revenue fell by 2% to €20.3 billion, with a significant 11% drop in the Asia-Pacific market, indicating a challenging environment for luxury brands [8][9] - Analysts have pushed back the timeline for recovery in the luxury sector to at least the second half of 2026, as brands reassess their strategies and communication with consumers amid a slowdown in price increases [8][9] Industry Concerns - The frequency of data breaches in the luxury sector raises concerns about data security during the digital transformation of these brands, emphasizing the need for improved data protection measures [9] - The luxury industry is under pressure to balance product and service quality with enhanced data security and customer privacy protection [9]

Core Insights - The new consumption industry is characterized by the integration of new technologies, aesthetics, products, and services, catering to a new generation of consumers [1][2] - The rapid technological advancements and the emergence of new aesthetic concepts are driving a global revolution in consumption, with significant implications for product and service innovation [1] - The rise of the new consumption industry is closely linked to the development of China's private economy, which has a vast potential yet to be fully realized [5][6] Group 1: New Consumption Industry Characteristics - The new consumption industry is defined by a focus on single product revolutions, emphasizing continuous innovation in specific categories to meet the demands of the new generation [2] - The industry is experiencing a geometric increase in global patent applications since 2007, indicating rapid technological evolution and cross-industry innovation [1] - New aesthetic concepts influenced by digital experiences and immersive media are reshaping consumer perceptions and expectations [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - China has 120 million private economic entities, but less than 1% are engaged in strategic new industries, highlighting a gap in the market [5] - The new consumption industry offers a wide array of opportunities, with examples from global leaders in beauty, food, and apparel sectors [5] - The potential for China to transition from a manufacturing powerhouse to a leader in new consumption brands and industries is significant, provided it leverages technological advancements effectively [5][6] Group 3: Future Directions - The first New Consumption Industry Development Conference aims to create a platform for sharing exemplary cases and fostering collaboration among various stakeholders [7] - The conference will annually release a report featuring 108 top cases to enhance understanding of the new consumption revolution and its dynamics [6][7] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is seen as a critical time for integrating the new consumption industry into broader economic strategies, promoting the development of new industrial clusters [7]

Core Insights - The definition of "luxury" has evolved beyond material possessions, encompassing a narrative system involving history, identity, art, and culture, with Western luxury brands dominating this space [1][2] - Chinese craft and art brands face challenges in establishing a strong narrative to compete in the global high-end market, despite having a rich historical background [3][4] Group 1: Western Luxury Brand Strategies - Western luxury brands like LVMH and Chanel leverage their historical craftsmanship and cultural narratives to build brand credibility and identity [2] - These brands often emphasize their long-standing traditions and artistic connections, which enhance their cultural capital and consumer appeal [2] Group 2: Challenges for Chinese Craft Brands - Chinese craft brands possess a long history but struggle with narrative construction, leading to a perception of their products as mere collectibles rather than luxury items [4][7] - The lack of a compelling story and brand identity hinders the ability of Chinese craft brands to penetrate the high-end market [4][7] Group 3: Building a New Luxury Narrative - To succeed, Chinese craft brands must draw inspiration from their cultural heritage while adopting contemporary design and global expressions to create a new luxury narrative [7][9] - Successful examples include Qeelin, which integrates traditional Chinese symbols with modern aesthetics, and brands like "观夏" that create a blend of traditional and modern experiences [8][9] Group 4: Globalization and Cultural Mission - The globalization of Chinese craft brands is not only a commercial endeavor but also a cultural mission, emphasizing the importance of storytelling in the luxury context [10] - Brands should utilize global communication mechanisms to transform local culture into an internationally understood luxury experience [9][10]