Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that despite a downturn in the industry, Prada's profitability remains solid, but its stock price has been under pressure this year due to weak investor sentiment. UBS believes the market has underestimated Prada's growth potential starting in 2026 and maintains a "Buy" rating [1] Valuation Summary - UBS values Prada based on the luxury goods industry's current price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 23 times the 12-month forward earnings, arriving at a fair value of HKD 83. Discounted cash flow valuation yields a fair value of HKD 65. The average of these two valuations sets a target price for Prada at HKD 74, down from a previous target of HKD 77 [1] Sales Forecast Summary - Prada is expected to report third-quarter sales on October 23, predicting group sales of EUR 1.3 billion, representing a 6% growth at constant exchange rates. By channel, direct store sales are anticipated to be EUR 1.182 billion, growing 7% at constant exchange rates, while wholesale sales are expected to reach EUR 86 million, growing 2% [1] Brand and Regional Performance - By brand, Prada is forecasted to decline by 2%, while Miu Miu is expected to grow by 28%. Regionally, the Americas are projected to lead growth at 14%, followed by the Middle East at 12%, Asia-Pacific at 6%, Europe at 5%, and Japan at a decline of 3% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's research report indicates that Prada's revenue growth has slowed to single digits (6%) in the latest quarter, with the Prada brand experiencing negative growth for the first time since 2020, while Miu Miu shows better-than-peer performance despite gradual normalization [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Prada's revenue growth has decreased to 6%, marking a significant slowdown [1] - The Prada brand has recorded negative growth for the first time since 2020 [1] - Miu Miu's performance is improving but still outpaces its competitors [1] Group 2: Investment Needs - The company requires substantial investments in advertising, promotions, production, IT infrastructure, and the expansion of Miu Miu's retail network, which may limit further profit margin expansion [1] Group 3: Financial Forecast Adjustments - Sales, EBIT, and earnings per share forecasts for 2025 have been reduced by 2%, 2%, and 4% respectively, and for 2026 by 3%, 5%, and 6% respectively [1] - The target price has been lowered from HKD 52.3 to HKD 45.5, maintaining a "neutral" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "A" for the textile and apparel industry [1] Core Insights - Adidas reported a 14% year-on-year revenue growth in its brand under constant currency for the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching €12.105 billion, a 7% increase compared to the previous year [4][19] - The report highlights that all regional markets for Adidas achieved double-digit growth under constant currency [20] - The overall textile and apparel sector has shown a decline of 2.14% in the SW textile and apparel index, underperforming the broader market [22] Summary by Sections Company Performance - Adidas' FY2025H1 revenue increased by 7% to €12.105 billion, with a net profit growth of 121% to €798 million [4][19] - The company's gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points to 51.9%, driven by lower product and transportation costs [5][19] - The report anticipates that for FY2025, Adidas will maintain its guidance of high single-digit revenue growth under constant currency, with operating profit expected to be between €1.7 billion and €1.8 billion [20] Market Dynamics - The textile and apparel sector's retail sales growth for the first half of 2025 was 3.1%, with sports and leisure goods showing a robust growth of 22.2% [11] - The report notes that the SW textile and apparel sector has lagged behind the broader market, with various sub-sectors experiencing declines [22] Regional Performance - In the European market, Adidas' revenue grew by 9% to €3.983 billion, while in North America, it increased by 6% to €2.523 billion [21] - The Greater China market saw an 8% revenue increase to €1.827 billion, and emerging markets experienced an 18% growth to €1.632 billion [21] Valuation Metrics - As of August 1, the PE-TTM for SW textile manufacturing was 20.94, while for SW apparel and home textiles, it was 27.69, indicating high valuation levels compared to historical averages [30]

Group 1: Company Performance - Hermès reported a 9% sales growth in Q2, reaching €3.9 billion, with all regions showing growth. Leather goods sales increased by 14.8% to €1.76 billion, while watch sales declined by 5.5% to €130 million [14] - Adidas achieved a 7.3% increase in net sales for H1, totaling €12.1 billion, with a gross margin rise of 0.9 percentage points to 51.9% and operating profit up 70% to €1.2 billion [2] - Prada's H1 revenue reached €2.74 billion, marking a 9.1% increase at constant exchange rates, with retail sales up 10.1% to €2.453 billion [2][3] Group 2: Strategic Developments - Kering announced a €20 million signing bonus for new CEO Luca de Meo, alongside a nearly €9 million annual salary, which has positively impacted the company's stock price, rising 24% since the announcement [3] - PUMA appointed Andreas Hubert as COO, effective September 1, to streamline operations by integrating procurement, IT, and logistics under one role [6] - Arena appointed Mark Pinger as the new Chief Brand Officer, effective October 1, leveraging his background in sports and experience in strategic roles [7] Group 3: Market Trends and Challenges - L'Oréal's Q2 sales grew by 1.6% to €22.47 billion, with an operating margin of 21.1%, indicating a recovery from previous performance issues [8] - Canada Goose reported a strong start to the new fiscal year with a 22.4% revenue increase to CAD 107.8 million, showcasing brand resilience [9] - SMCP's sales grew by 2.7% to €601.1 million, with all regions outside Asia showing growth, indicating a stable performance despite regional challenges [11] Group 4: Leadership Changes and Impacts - Jil Sander's CEO Serge Brunschwig resigned after six months, indicating potential instability in leadership [13] - Nicolas Puech, the largest individual shareholder of Hermès, no longer holds shares, raising concerns about brand image and market confidence [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains a "buy" rating for Prada (01913) but lowers the target price by 6.3% to HKD 75 due to ongoing weakness in the luxury goods sector and uncertainties surrounding the integration of Versace [1] Group 1: Target Price and Valuation - The target price corresponds to a 2025 P/E ratio of 22.6 times and a 2026 P/E ratio of 18.9 times [1] - The current stock price reflects a 2025 P/E ratio of 13.8 times and a 2026 P/E ratio of 11.2 times, indicating a potential upside of 60.3% from the target price [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Prada Group reported a 9% year-on-year increase in net revenue for 1H25, reaching EUR 2.74 billion, in line with FactSet consensus expectations [2] - Gross margin improved to 80.1% in 1H25 from 79.8% in 1H24 due to higher operational efficiency and lower logistics costs [2] - EBIT grew by 6% year-on-year to EUR 607 million, with an EBIT margin of 22.2%, slightly below FactSet consensus of EUR 631 million [2] - Net income stood at EUR 386 million, with a net margin of 14.1%, remaining stable year-on-year [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the group held net cash of EUR 352 million [2] Group 3: Growth Drivers - Despite uncertainties related to the Versace acquisition, Prada Group is expected to be one of the best-performing luxury companies in 2025, driven by: 1) Expansion of retail space for Prada and Miu Miu brands, expected to accelerate in 2H25 [1] 2) Increased production of leather goods for the Miu Miu brand [1] 3) Consistency in creativity while many peers undergo design transformations in 2025 [1]

Core Insights - Prada's adjusted EBIT for the mid-term is approximately €618.5 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.55% [1] - The net revenue stands at approximately €386 million, showing a slight year-on-year growth of 0.62% [1] - Earnings per share are reported at €0.151 [1] Revenue Breakdown - Retail sales net revenue increased by 10.1% year-on-year, primarily driven by full-price and comparable sales [1] - Retail sales account for 89.5% of total net revenue [1] - Prada brand's retail sales net revenue decreased by 2% at constant exchange rates, while Miu Miu's retail sales net revenue surged by 49% [1] Regional Performance - All regions reported growth in retail sales net revenue: - Asia-Pacific increased by 10.4% - Europe grew by 8.6% - Americas saw a rise of 12.4% - Japan experienced a growth of 4.3% - The Middle East showed strong performance with a growth of 25.7% [1]

Core Insights - Prada reported a net revenue of €2.74 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a 9% increase year-over-year at constant exchange rates [1] - Adjusted EBIT was approximately €618.5 million, showing a year-over-year growth of 7.55% [1] - Retail sales net revenue increased by 10.1% compared to the same period in 2024, driven by full-price and comparable sales [1] Revenue Breakdown - Retail sales net revenue accounted for 89.5% of total net revenue, consistent with 2024 [1] - Retail sales net revenue for the Prada brand decreased by 2% at constant exchange rates, while Miu Miu's retail sales net revenue surged by 49% [1] Regional Performance - All regions experienced growth, with Asia-Pacific retail sales net revenue increasing by 10.4% [2] - Europe saw an 8.6% increase in retail sales net revenue, despite a high comparison base and reduced tourist spending in the second quarter [2] - The Americas achieved a notable growth of 12.4%, supported by local and tourist demand [2] - Japan's retail sales net revenue increased by 4.3%, reflecting a slowdown in tourist spending but stable local demand [2] - The Middle East exhibited strong performance with a 25.7% year-over-year increase in retail sales net revenue [2]

Core Insights - Prada Group reported a net revenue of €2,740 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a 9% increase at constant exchange rates compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Retail sales net revenue increased by 10% at constant exchange rates compared to 2024, with Miu Miu's retail sales net revenue rising by 49%, while Prada brand's retail sales net revenue decreased by 2% [1] - All regions experienced growth in retail sales net revenue at constant exchange rates: Middle East +26%, Americas +12%, Asia Pacific +10%, Europe +9%, and Japan +4% [1] Financial Performance - The adjusted EBIT for the first half of 2025 was €619 million, an 8% increase compared to 2024, with a profit margin of 22.6%, remaining stable year-on-year [1] - The net income for the first half of the year was €386 million [1] - The board proposed a final dividend of €0.164 per share for the fiscal year 2024 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Prada Group reported a 13% year-on-year increase in net revenue for Q1 of FY2025, reaching €1.341 billion, surpassing market expectations, while competitors like LVMH and Kering experienced declines [2] Group Performance - The Prada brand's revenue remained stable at €913 million, while Miu Miu saw a significant growth of 60%, contributing €416 million to the total revenue [4] - Church's recorded a mild growth of 1.8%, reaching €8.2 million [4] Regional Performance - Asia-Pacific achieved a 9.6% growth despite a challenging market environment [4] - Europe experienced a 14.3% increase driven by local consumer and tourist spending [4] - The Americas saw a 10% growth despite complex macroeconomic conditions [4] - Japan's market grew by 18%, although the growth rate is expected to slow down [4] - The Middle East was the standout market with a substantial 26% growth in retail sales [4] Strategic Initiatives - Prada continues to invest in the Chinese market, opening its first Asian dining space in Shanghai, designed by director Wong Kar-wai, offering a blend of Italian and Chinese cuisine [5][10] - Miu Miu opened its largest flagship store in Wuhan, China, as part of its expansion strategy [10] Acquisition Plans - Prada Group announced the acquisition of Italian luxury brand Versace for €1.25 billion, expected to complete in the second half of 2025, although analysts predict short-term profit pressure due to the acquisition [10]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Group recorded net revenues of EUR 1.34 billion in the first quarter, up 13% at constant exchange rates compared to the same period last year [9] - Retail sales reached EUR 1.22 billion, also up 13% at constant FX, driven by like-for-like and full-price sales [9] - Wholesale sales increased by 7% year-on-year, while royalties delivered a 13% growth, supported by eyewear and fragrances [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Prada brand's retail sales remained stable against high comparisons from the previous year, while Miu Miu experienced a remarkable growth of 60% at constant FX, increasing its contribution to Group retail sales from 22% to 31% [11][10] - Leather goods were highlighted as one of the fastest-growing categories, particularly for Miu Miu, with significant success in the first three months [29][30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Asia Pacific sales were up 10% at constant FX, Europe increased by 14%, the Americas grew by 10%, and Japan saw an 18% rise, with the Middle East delivering the best performance at 26% [12] - The Chinese market showed volatility, with local transactions negatively impacting performance, while traveler transactions remained positive [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to build Prada's desirability and product innovation to maintain positive growth despite challenging market conditions [4] - Miu Miu's expansion in the U.S. is a focus, with plans for further store openings and refurbishments to enhance brand presence [35] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the market remains complicated, with regular trends and some differences across regions, but expressed optimism about maintaining positive growth [14] - The company is not expecting significant changes in consumer behavior in the short term but hopes for gradual improvements in local demand, particularly in China [68] Other Important Information - The company is observing pricing strategies closely, considering potential impacts from tariffs and currency fluctuations, with a maintenance pricing strategy of 2-4% every six months [41] - The online channel for both brands has seen growth, particularly in North America, contributing to 8-10% of total revenue [59] Q&A Session Summary Question: Trends by nationality and product brand EBITDA - Management noted volatility in the Chinese cluster, with a return to negative performance in Q1 compared to a strong Q4 [20] Question: Changes in American consumer behavior and future acceleration - Management indicated that the U.S. market remains unstable, with ongoing investments aimed at improving performance [23] Question: Drivers of leather goods growth - Miu Miu's leather goods category showed strong performance, with a mix of iconic and new products driving success [30] Question: Update on store expansion plans - The company confirmed ongoing plans for store expansions, particularly for Miu Miu in North America, with a successful refurbishment of the Soho store [35] Question: Pricing strategy in light of tariffs - Management stated that maintenance pricing increases would likely be sufficient to offset potential tariffs, but consumer confidence remains a concern [50] Question: Overlap between Prada and Miu Miu customer demographics - Management emphasized that both brands are managed independently, with no intentional overlap in customer targeting [54] Question: Profitability outlook and seasonality - Management indicated that growth remains the priority, with a focus on maintaining moderate margin expansion [58] Question: Performance of online channels - Online sales have grown slightly in North America, maintaining a consistent contribution to total revenue [59] Question: Competitive landscape and new product cycles - Management acknowledged the reshuffling in the luxury industry and expressed confidence in gaining market share through stability and creativity [65] Question: Investments in China and local demand outlook - Management remains positive about long-term prospects in China, with expectations for easier comparisons in the second half of the year [68]