2025年下半年起，主要奢侈品集团在亚太区(剔除日本)的销售增速显著改善，LVMH、历峰等集团增速 在连续7个季度后首次转正。中国区市场的改善已成为全球奢侈品集团业绩修复的关键变量，各大品牌 普遍看好中国市场的长期潜力。国内高端商场零售额增速亦在下半年显著提升。2025年恒隆地产内地商 场租户零售额同比增长4%，日均客流量创历史新高;太古地产旗下多数商场在下半年显著提速，其中上 海兴业太古汇凭借标志性项目"路易号"拉动，零售额大增49.6%。 财富效应驱动高端消费需求回升，高频指标印证修复 富人资产增速、海南离岛免税数据、澳门博彩业数据、高档酒店数据等可做高端消费高频跟踪;二奢数 据反映大众人群需求，与高端消费同向变动;奢侈品公司季度业绩表现、高端商圈(恒隆、太古等)零售额 增速可做为高端消费情况后验指标。其中富人资产增速(t-1期)对奢侈品业绩具有领先预测价值，随着股 市及投资收益改善，高净值人群消费意愿已实质性回暖，可在瑞士钟表对华出口转正、澳门博彩毛收入 逐季加速复苏以及高端酒店RevPAR的增长中得到印证。 风险提示 宏观经济与消费信心波动风险、政策与监管环境变化风险、行业竞争与替代分流风险。 华福证 ...

证券研究报告|行业深度报告 社会服务 行业评级 强于大市（维持评级） 2026年2月25日 2H25国内高端消费显著提升， 富人资产修复背景下有望延续增势 证券分析师： 姚婧 执业证书编号：S0210525060002 李天阳 执业证书编号：S0210525080001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 Ø 高端消费市场整体企稳回暖，大中华区复苏动能强劲。 2 华福证券 华福证券 • 2025年下半年起，主要奢侈品集团在亚太区（剔除日本）的销售增速显著改善，LVMH、历峰等集团增速在连续7个 季度后首次转正。 中国区市场的改善已成为全球奢侈品集团业绩修复的关键变量，各大品牌普遍看好中国市场的长期 潜力。 国内高端商场零售额增速亦在下半年显著提升。 2025年恒隆地产内地商场租户零售额同比增长4%，日均客流 量创历史新高；太古地产旗下多数商场在下半年显著提速，其中上海兴业太古汇凭借标志性项目"路易号"拉动，零 售额大增49.6%。 Ø 财富效应驱动高端消费需求回升，高频指标印证修复。 • 富人资产增速、海南离岛免税数据、澳门博彩业数据、高档酒店数据等可做高端消费高频跟踪；二奢数据反映大 ...

分析师 1: 好的，各位投资人晚上好，非常欢迎参加我们今天的这场电话会。今天我们是非常荣幸的 邀请到一位在行业非常资深的高端购物中心的专家。为我们分享一下春节假期高端消费的 大致情况。那今天我们就直接进行 QA 了，然后有几个大家共性关注的问题，我先跟专家 做个请教，就第一个先麻烦专家帮我们分享，跟拆分一下春节假期在可比口径下。我们这 边的，包括销售额，还有客流、客单的一个大致情况，跟去年同期的对比，谢谢。 高端购物中心行业专家: 那， OK，行。长度和跨度其实都不太一样。那么考虑到整个口径相同的一个原因，然后 我就统一的就按照这个叫什么？按照从大年三十就是我们所说的除夕，除夕那一天，然后 到年初六，大概 7 天的这样的一个数据，然后去做一个对比，这样可能两年之间的这样的 一个口径，就把它变得趋同或者相同。然后更有可比性一点。那么我们系统内部的这个情 况是这个样子的，因为刚刚过去的春节。然后我们今天才是第一天上班，正式上班。然后 有些数据其实还是在，正在在这个统计的过程当中，可能应该等一下，我们要问到的有， 有些品牌或者分品牌的一些情况，可能现在目前可能还不能完全的去展示出来。 但是这个我觉得其实问题并不大， ...

此外，里昂的渠道调查显示，受金价波动影响，黄金珠宝销售仍面临压力，而部分奢侈品牌则在年初至 今表现强劲。该行认为，春节数据更偏向强劲的出行及旅游业，且高端消费表现良好，将有利里昂首选 股包括：新秀丽(01910)、法国奢侈品巨擘LVMH和卡地亚母公司瑞士历峯集团(Richemont)，以及与国 内需求相关的安踏体育(02020) 。 智通财经APP获悉，里昂发布研报称，虽然正等待内地文化和旅游部的春节数据，但截至昨日(23日)数 据显示，内地消费整体维持正面，旅游出行热度良好。跨境旅游方面，国家移民管理局预计，日均跨境 客流量年增约14%。海南免税店的消费在更强劲的促销活动及政策推动的增量需求下保持韧性，但很大 程度上已反映在中国中免(01880,601888.SH)的股价中。但电影票房表现疲软，创下八年来的最低纪录。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，奢侈品、高端香化、高端零售业绩修复加速，高净值人群消 费恢复或是高端消费改善的主要原因。该行认为，当前中国高端消费筑底效应已经展现，短期内高端消 费修复需依靠高净值人群的财富效应与针对中产的政策刺激。中长期看，需关注收入和就业的系统性改 善、房地产的企稳回升，以及财富效应从高净值人群向中产的扩散节奏。高端消费实际需求改善+供给 相对稀缺+政策效果强，重点推荐免税、黄金珠宝行业。 国金证券主要观点如下： 免税：低基数，强政策红利，高端消费修复，有望带动免税行业重回增长 免税是进口化妆品、奢侈品等高档消费品流通的重要渠道，将极大受益于高端消费恢复。海南自由贸易 港正式启动封关，有望对海南本地以及全国的免税业务产生明显的影响，叠加高端消费复苏趋势持续演 绎，影响逻辑有望超预期。此外，日本旅游热度下滑后，海南成为新热门目的地。去哪儿旅行、携程等 平台数据显示，截至2月初，春节假期目的地为海南的日均机票订单量同比增长超45%。 中国中免：公司基本面回暖，从内需看，高端消费的恢复是免税行业复苏的基础，免税行业存在整体性 机会；从外需看，入境游客的消费潜力，并未被市场充分认识，预期中 ...

Core Insights - The high-end consumption market in China is undergoing a significant transformation, shifting from material satisfaction to a focus on spiritual fulfillment and diverse experiences [1][10] - Over 40% of the elite population considers "active living, not lying flat" as a core element of a high-quality life, emphasizing self-expression and social integration through consumption [1][10] Consumer Segmentation - The elite population is categorized into three segments: "Mid-High Elite," "Super Elite - Y Generation and above," and "Super Elite - Z Generation," highlighting fundamental differences in motivations and behaviors among these groups [2][10] - The Mid-High Elite and Y Generation Super Elite remain the core market forces, focusing on quality, individuality, and social recognition, while the Z Generation Super Elite shows stronger consumption resilience and a broader range of interests [2][10] Category Preferences - Traditional luxury goods are under pressure as their "external value" diminishes due to homogenization and mass-market trends, while categories like high-end travel, entertainment, beauty, and cutting-edge technology are experiencing significant growth [3][10] - These emerging categories cater to the elite's diverse value points, such as self-enjoyment, individuality, social resonance, and trend-seeking [3][10] Channel Dynamics - The integration of online and offline channels is becoming increasingly important in the consumer decision-making process, with different categories exhibiting distinct purchasing behavior patterns [4][10] - Platforms like WeChat, lifestyle platforms, short videos, and e-commerce play differentiated roles in content marketing, professional reviews, interactive live streaming, and trustworthy transactions, creating a comprehensive touchpoint network for elite consumers [4][10] Brand Implications - Brands need to transcend product functionality and delve into the emotional and spiritual realms of the elite population, establishing deep resonance through creative storytelling and seamless online-offline experiences [5][10] - The focus should be on understanding the role and value proposition of the brand in the lives of target consumers, utilizing innovative formats to convey brand philosophy and maintain ongoing dialogue on a spiritual level [5][10] Key Findings - Elite consumer spending has slightly decreased by 6% over the past year, with a projected slowdown to 4%, primarily influenced by macroeconomic factors rather than long-term behavioral changes [27][10] - 42% of the elite population believes that "spiritual wealth and not lying flat" are essential elements of a high-quality life, indicating a growing importance of internal fulfillment [27][10] - The Z Generation Super Elite is reshaping the future of high-end lifestyles, with distinct values and consumption behaviors that differ from previous generations [27][10]

Core Insights - The essence of high-end retail is that true brand elevation must be measured by physical space, with retail stores being essential for luxury brands to convey their value [1][2] - The opening of Gao Fan's first boutique in Hangzhou marks a strategic move to engage with discerning high-net-worth consumers in a competitive luxury market [2][3] Group 1: Brand Positioning - Gao Fan's store is located in Hangzhou Tower, a prestigious shopping destination that has set the standard for high-end retail in Zhejiang since 2004 [1][2] - The store's opening is part of Gao Fan's global channel strategy, reinforcing its position as one of the top two high-end down jacket brands [2][3] - The collaboration between Gao Fan and Hangzhou Tower reflects a mutual strategic alignment, focusing on unique value propositions such as the fusion of world-class materials and Chinese heritage craftsmanship [3][4] Group 2: Market Trends - The luxury market is experiencing a shift from ostentatious consumption to identity-driven consumption, necessitating a strong physical retail presence for high-end brands [2][4] - The concept of a "Golden Value Corridor" is emerging in China's high-end market, where brands like Gao Fan are redefining categories through exceptional product quality and unique value barriers [4][5] Group 3: Product Innovation - Gao Fan has developed a robust product system, termed the "Black Gold Standard," which utilizes premium down sourced from extreme cold regions and integrates advanced technology with traditional craftsmanship [5][6] - The brand's commitment to innovation is evidenced by 185 patents and collaborations with top research institutions, enhancing the functionality and luxury of its products [6][10] Group 4: Sales Performance - Gao Fan has achieved significant commercial success, leading the high-end down jacket sales online and expanding its presence in top-tier retail locations, with average transaction values between 3,000 to 5,000 yuan [6][7] - Recent sales data indicates that Gao Fan's offline stores have generated over 100 million yuan in revenue within three months, showcasing strong market acceptance [6][7] Group 5: Cultural Narrative - Gao Fan's approach emphasizes a unique cultural narrative that integrates Eastern aesthetics with global standards, positioning the brand as a cultural ambassador in the luxury market [10][12] - The brand's strategy reflects a broader trend among Chinese companies to transition from being mere suppliers in the global value chain to defining consumer experiences and standards [13]

Group 1 - The core activity of SKP's Spring Festival event runs from January 24 to February 14, attracting significant consumer interest, particularly at the Lao Pu Gold stores [1] - On the first day of the event, there was a notable increase in queue numbers compared to the previous year, with hundreds of customers waiting to enter the Lao Pu Gold store [1] - Lao Pu Gold is positioned as a leading high-end jewelry brand in China, with projections indicating it will surpass Richemont's jewelry revenue in the Chinese market by 2025 [1] Group 2 - Lao Pu Gold is set to open an independent store on the first floor of Beijing SKP in September 2025, challenging the dominance of international luxury brands in prime retail locations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, specializing in high-end gold jewelry retail with traditional craftsmanship, has shown significant growth in its operating performance, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 12.354 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 251%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.268 billion yuan, with a growth of 286% [1]. - The gross profit margins for the first half of 2024 and 2025 are projected to be 41.2% and 38.1%, respectively [1]. - The average revenue per store reached 207 million yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 120.28%, with a further increase of 176.19% in the first half of 2025 [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for gold jewelry is expected to continue growing due to the rising trend of self-consumption and the appeal of gold as a fashionable and valuable asset, supported by the long-term upward trend in gold prices [2]. - The resilience of high-end consumption in China has created a favorable environment for brands like the company, which focus on high-end traditional gold products [2]. Group 3: Competitive Advantages - The company maintains a comprehensive management system integrating product design, processing, and retail, which helps differentiate it in a market characterized by product homogeneity [2]. - The brand's high-end positioning and direct sales model enhance customer interaction and product experience, contributing to customer loyalty and repeat purchases [2]. - Future overseas expansion is anticipated to accelerate, leveraging cultural narratives combined with local adaptations for growth [2]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 4.84 billion yuan, 6.545 billion yuan, and 8.107 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 22.4, 16.6, and 13.4 times [3]. - The estimated reasonable stock price range is between 788.38 and 855.93 Hong Kong dollars per share, with an "outperform the market" rating [3].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up by 0.46% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.42%, with consumer stocks performing strongly, including Haidilao up over 5% and Nongfu Spring up over 3% [1] - The banking sector showed weakness, with China Bank declining by 0.22% [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities anticipates that the Hong Kong stock market will benefit from internal "15th Five-Year Plan" catalysts and external economic stimulus, predicting a second round of valuation recovery and performance revival by 2026, recommending focus on technology, healthcare, resource products, essential consumer goods, paper, and aviation sectors [2] - Huaxi Securities believes that the Hong Kong market will continue to underperform compared to A-shares, with a recovery in market sentiment requiring time, and notes that since early October last year, the market has been weak until a rebound in late December, suggesting that even with a strong start to the year, profit-taking may occur [2] - Guoyuan International states that the Hong Kong market is currently in a relatively quiet period, with market sentiment needing further catalysts, and mentions that the announcement of a new Federal Reserve Chair in January may reignite interest in rate cuts, potentially bringing new capital into the Hong Kong market [2] Group 3 - Industrial Securities recommends prioritizing leading internet companies in the AI sector, expecting a resonance of buying interest from both domestic and foreign investors, and suggests focusing on dividend assets in a low-interest-rate environment, including opportunities in insurance, banking, energy, property management, and public utilities [3] - The new consumption sector is highlighted, with three main lines of focus: traditional service-oriented consumption transformation led by chain hotels, Z-generation consumption such as trendy toys and beauty products, and high-end consumption [3]