1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term price of the black building materials industry is expected to be "strong - biased", and the medium - term outlook is "sideways" [1][2][6] 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of supply contraction is strengthened, and the market sentiment is optimistic. Frequent macro - level positive factors combined with a good fundamental situation lead to a short - term strong - biased price trend in the black building materials industry [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines have basically ended their quarterly volume - pushing, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The profitability rate of steel enterprises has remained stable, and the molten iron production of small - sample steel enterprises has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. The port inventory has slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The market sentiment is good, and the futures price is oscillating strongly [2] Carbon Element - In the supply side, coal mines in Shanxi are gradually resuming supply, but there are still regional disturbances, and the overall supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the daily customs clearance at the port has remained above 800 vehicles in recent days, and the pre - festival stocking sentiment is evident. In the demand side, the coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. The downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent, and future attention should be paid to coal mine复产 and Mongolian coal imports [3] Alloys - **Manganese Alloy**: The manganese ore price has remained stable, but the port inventory has slightly increased, and there is still room for the ore price to decline in the future. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the futures price is insufficient, but the downward space is limited due to cost support, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is relatively healthy, but there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, which makes it more difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the silicon iron price is insufficient, but due to the continuous loss in the industry, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term under cost support [3][6] Glass - In the demand side, the demand in the off - season is declining, and the deep - processing demand is still weak. In the supply side, there are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and a production line is planned to resume production, so the supply pressure still exists. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and the internal contradiction is not prominent. Recently, the anti - involution sentiment has increased, and the market is worried about supply - side production cuts. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate [12][13] Soda Ash - The supply - side over - capacity situation has not changed, and the long - term suppression still exists. The production is at a high level, and the supply pressure remains. In the demand side, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand for light soda ash is weak, with manufacturers continuously reducing prices. The market is affected by sentiment, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended that enterprises seize the short - term positive - feedback hedging opportunities. The short - term outlook is sideways, and the long - term price center is expected to decline [6][13] Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: In the off - season, the fundamental contradiction is limited, and the off - season pressure remains to be observed. Overseas tariffs are constantly disturbing, and after the steel price increase, the pressure on steel exports shows a marginal weakening trend. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short term [8] - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron production of small - sample steel enterprises has decreased, and the price is oscillating upward. The demand is at a high level, and the fundamental contradiction is not obvious. After this round of upward movement, the futures price has reached an important resistance level, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both weakening marginally, and it is expected to oscillate after the macro - level sentiment cools down [9] - **Coke**: The cost support is strengthening, and the expectation of price increase is growing. The current supply - demand pattern has further improved, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment is high, and both the spot and futures prices are strengthening. The current fundamental supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] - **Silicon Manganese**: The spot market is in a stalemate. The supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and it is difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the futures price is insufficient, but the downward space is limited due to cost support, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [14] - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand relationship is currently healthy, but there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, making it difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the price is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term under cost support [16]

Core Viewpoint - The overall sentiment in the polysilicon market is weak, with expectations for a continued decline in prices and demand due to inventory pressures and reduced downstream procurement [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On May 7, polysilicon futures experienced a sharp decline, hitting a low of 35,655.0 yuan, with a current price of 35,700.0 yuan, reflecting a drop of 2.65% [1]. - The current inventory of polysilicon is around 250,000 tons, with total industry inventory estimated at nearly 500,000 tons, indicating significant de-stocking pressure [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The polysilicon market is in a capacity reduction cycle, with production cuts across various segments, leading to a slight recovery in March production to 96,000 tons, but overall price support remains weak [1]. - Downstream silicon wafer production shows signs of stabilization, but the focus remains on depleting polysilicon inventory, with new orders being limited [1]. - The demand side is negatively impacted by the end of the photovoltaic rush, with expected declines in silicon wafer production in May and June [2]. Group 3: Price Trends and Future Outlook - The N-type silicon material price has dropped nearly 4%, and the overall market is expected to see further price declines due to weak demand and inventory accumulation [1][2]. - The average cash cost for mainstream silicon material manufacturers is around 35,000-36,000 yuan per ton, which may provide some support for prices in the near term [2]. - The market is anticipated to remain in a weak state, with potential short-term rebounds as the market approaches delivery pricing in mid to late May [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, with suggested cautious trading within a range. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate and weaken. Nickel prices lack upward momentum due to oversupply, with a suggestion to wait and see. Tin prices are expected to have increased volatility, with suggested interval trading. [2][3][5][6] Summary by Metal Copper - As of April 28, the closing price of the SHFE copper main 06 contract dropped 0.08% to 77,580 yuan/ton. After the ECB's interest - rate cut and dovish remarks from some Fed officials, the market's expectation of a June interest - rate cut rose, weakening the negative impact of the Trump administration's tariff stance on copper prices. The copper concentrate spot market remained sluggish, with TC continuously hitting new lows. Despite high by - product prices supporting refined copper output, smelters' pressure is increasing. This week, inventory reduction accelerated, with the SHFE weekend inventory decreasing by 54,858 tons, the largest single - week decline since 2003. The peak demand season drove copper product output growth, with China's copper product output reaching 2.125 million tons in March, a new high for the same period in recent years. The upward space of copper prices is limited due to potential demand suppression and the negative impact of the trade war on global economic demand. [2] - In the spot market, domestic spot copper prices fell, and the market transaction was light. High premiums supported holders to hold prices, but downstream buyers were cautious. [7] - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 4,704 tons to 36,884 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 650 tons to 202,800 tons. [16] Aluminum - As of April 28, the closing price of the SHFE aluminum main 06 contract dropped 0.1% to 19,935 yuan/ton. The supply at the ore end improved, and prices declined. The weekly operating capacity of alumina increased by 150,000 tons to 87.3 million tons, and the national alumina inventory decreased by 26,000 tons to 3.423 million tons. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 15,000 tons to 44.089 million tons. The domestic downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate increased by 0.15% to 62.52%. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased. However, due to the US tariffs, the upward trend of aluminum prices is difficult to sustain, and prices are expected to oscillate and weaken. [3] - In the spot market, the transaction was light. Holders tried to hold prices in the morning, but downstream buyers were mostly on the sidelines. In the afternoon, some downstream buyers made pre - holiday low - price purchases, driving sporadic transactions. [8] - The alumina spot market transaction was light, with prices stabilizing. Holders actively sold goods, but downstream electrolytic aluminum plants had limited operating capacity and mainly made rigid - demand purchases. [9] - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,902 tons to 72,590 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 419,575 tons. [16] Nickel - As of April 28, the closing price of the SHFE nickel main 06 contract dropped 0.83% to 124,690 yuan/ton. The US April Markit composite PMI hit a 16 - month low, and Trump's attitude towards China's tariffs eased, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite. The Indonesian nickel usage tax rate policy was implemented this week, increasing the cost at the ore end. The pure nickel surplus situation remained, and the spot transaction was sluggish. The nickel - iron price was supported by the strong ore end, but the surplus pattern expanded. The 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production in April was 1.9075 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.04% and a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. The sulfuric acid nickel price was strong due to cost push, and the loss was repaired. Overall, due to the oversupply of nickel, the upward momentum is insufficient, and it is recommended to wait and see. [4][5] - In the spot market, as nickel prices fell, the willingness to make low - price inquiries and replenish inventory increased. [13] - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 168 tons to 24,632 tons, and LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,044 tons to 201,426 tons. [16] Tin - As of April 28, the closing price of the SHFE tin main 05 contract dropped 0.63% to 260,590 yuan/ton. The spot supply was tight, supporting prices. In March, China's refined tin output was 18,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.5%. The import of tin concentrate in March was 3,466 metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42%. Indonesia's refined tin exports in March were 5,780 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47%. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and the inventory of domestic and foreign exchanges and domestic social inventory decreased by 409 tons. The tin ore supply is tight, but there are strong expectations for mine resumption. The price is expected to fluctuate more, and it is recommended to trade within the range of 250,000 - 273,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 06 contract. [6] - In the spot market, downstream inquiries were cautious at the beginning of the week, and overall consumption needs further improvement. [14] - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 192 tons to 8,722 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 35 tons to 2,845 tons. [16] Other Metals - Zinc: Spot zinc prices fell. The market was well - supplied due to imported goods. Holders were reluctant to lower prices due to high premiums, while downstream buyers pressured prices for purchases and were pessimistic about the future. [10] - Lead: Spot lead prices fell. As pre - May Day inventory replenishment was coming to an end, the spot transaction was light. [11][12]