1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term price of the black building materials industry is expected to be "strong - biased", and the medium - term outlook is "sideways" [1][2][6] 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of supply contraction is strengthened, and the market sentiment is optimistic. Frequent macro - level positive factors combined with a good fundamental situation lead to a short - term strong - biased price trend in the black building materials industry [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines have basically ended their quarterly volume - pushing, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The profitability rate of steel enterprises has remained stable, and the molten iron production of small - sample steel enterprises has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. The port inventory has slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The market sentiment is good, and the futures price is oscillating strongly [2] Carbon Element - In the supply side, coal mines in Shanxi are gradually resuming supply, but there are still regional disturbances, and the overall supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the daily customs clearance at the port has remained above 800 vehicles in recent days, and the pre - festival stocking sentiment is evident. In the demand side, the coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. The downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent, and future attention should be paid to coal mine复产 and Mongolian coal imports [3] Alloys - **Manganese Alloy**: The manganese ore price has remained stable, but the port inventory has slightly increased, and there is still room for the ore price to decline in the future. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the futures price is insufficient, but the downward space is limited due to cost support, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is relatively healthy, but there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, which makes it more difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the silicon iron price is insufficient, but due to the continuous loss in the industry, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term under cost support [3][6] Glass - In the demand side, the demand in the off - season is declining, and the deep - processing demand is still weak. In the supply side, there are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and a production line is planned to resume production, so the supply pressure still exists. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and the internal contradiction is not prominent. Recently, the anti - involution sentiment has increased, and the market is worried about supply - side production cuts. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate [12][13] Soda Ash - The supply - side over - capacity situation has not changed, and the long - term suppression still exists. The production is at a high level, and the supply pressure remains. In the demand side, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand for light soda ash is weak, with manufacturers continuously reducing prices. The market is affected by sentiment, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended that enterprises seize the short - term positive - feedback hedging opportunities. The short - term outlook is sideways, and the long - term price center is expected to decline [6][13] Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: In the off - season, the fundamental contradiction is limited, and the off - season pressure remains to be observed. Overseas tariffs are constantly disturbing, and after the steel price increase, the pressure on steel exports shows a marginal weakening trend. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short term [8] - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron production of small - sample steel enterprises has decreased, and the price is oscillating upward. The demand is at a high level, and the fundamental contradiction is not obvious. After this round of upward movement, the futures price has reached an important resistance level, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both weakening marginally, and it is expected to oscillate after the macro - level sentiment cools down [9] - **Coke**: The cost support is strengthening, and the expectation of price increase is growing. The current supply - demand pattern has further improved, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment is high, and both the spot and futures prices are strengthening. The current fundamental supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] - **Silicon Manganese**: The spot market is in a stalemate. The supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and it is difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the futures price is insufficient, but the downward space is limited due to cost support, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [14] - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand relationship is currently healthy, but there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, making it difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the price is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term under cost support [16]

Core Viewpoint - The overall sentiment in the polysilicon market is weak, with expectations for a continued decline in prices and demand due to inventory pressures and reduced downstream procurement [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On May 7, polysilicon futures experienced a sharp decline, hitting a low of 35,655.0 yuan, with a current price of 35,700.0 yuan, reflecting a drop of 2.65% [1]. - The current inventory of polysilicon is around 250,000 tons, with total industry inventory estimated at nearly 500,000 tons, indicating significant de-stocking pressure [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The polysilicon market is in a capacity reduction cycle, with production cuts across various segments, leading to a slight recovery in March production to 96,000 tons, but overall price support remains weak [1]. - Downstream silicon wafer production shows signs of stabilization, but the focus remains on depleting polysilicon inventory, with new orders being limited [1]. - The demand side is negatively impacted by the end of the photovoltaic rush, with expected declines in silicon wafer production in May and June [2]. Group 3: Price Trends and Future Outlook - The N-type silicon material price has dropped nearly 4%, and the overall market is expected to see further price declines due to weak demand and inventory accumulation [1][2]. - The average cash cost for mainstream silicon material manufacturers is around 35,000-36,000 yuan per ton, which may provide some support for prices in the near term [2]. - The market is anticipated to remain in a weak state, with potential short-term rebounds as the market approaches delivery pricing in mid to late May [2].

截至 4 月 28 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约下跌 0.08%至 77580 元/吨。继 欧洲央行降息后，美联储部分官员再发鸽派言论，市场对 6 月降息预期 上升，特朗普政府关税立场对于铜价不利影响有所减弱，受利好驱动， 铜价逐步反弹修复前期下跌缺口。基本面上，铜精矿现货市场延续低迷 态势，TC 持续探底跌破-40 美元，虽受益于副产品价格高位，精铜产出 依然保持韧性，但炼厂压力在增大。在铜产出维持高位的背景下，市场 去库并未受到明显影响，本周去库加快，上期所周末库存减少 54858 吨， 创 2003 年以来最大单周降幅。需求旺季带动了铜材产量增长，3 月中国 铜材产量达 212.5 万吨，创近几年同期新高，目前尚未看到关税战带来 的明显影响。下周仍面临假期备货需求，预期去库趋势仍然延续。供应 端矿端压力延续并有加大趋势，废铜进口可能受限、节前备库加快去库 节奏，基本面仍保持强劲。但铜价进一步上行将对需求带来抑制，而特 朗普政府贸易战对全球经济带来的拖累仍将对铜整体需求带来不利影 响，铜价上行空间也受到限制。沪铜维持偏强震荡，建议区间谨慎交易。 有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： ◆ 铝： 截至 4 月 2 ...