Report Investment Rating - The report suggests holding long positions in crude oil, indicating a view that the price may oscillate upwards [1] Core View - The report analyzes the price movements of international crude oil futures and the arbitrage situations in different markets, including the Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean. It also provides key market news that may affect the crude oil market [1][3][4][6] Summary by Directory International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI April crude oil futures closed down $0.18, a decline of over 0.18%, at $96.14 per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures for May closed up $1.27, a gain of 1.18%, at $108.65 per barrel; SC2605 crude oil futures closed down 46.30 yuan per barrel, a decline of 5.76%, at 757.10 yuan per barrel [1] Mexican Gulf Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - For most crude oils, the spreads decreased compared to January. The main drivers include the deterioration of crude oil price disadvantages and high freight costs [1] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - The spreads of most crude oils decreased compared to January. The core drivers are the expansion of crude oil price disadvantages and the negative impact of refining value [3] Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - The spreads of some crude oils increased, mainly due to the strong refining value. While the spreads of some others decreased, mainly due to the change of crude oil price advantages to disadvantages and high freight costs [4] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The spreads of some crude oils changed slightly. The main influencing factors are the change of the relative price advantage of the benchmark oil Urals and high freight costs [6] Key Market News - Israel and the US have carried out 20 - day air strikes on Iran, and the military action will continue until necessary. The US Treasury has issued a new license to allow the delivery and sale of Russian - origin crude oil and petroleum products loaded before March 12 [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - NYMEX WTI April crude oil futures rose $3.87, or 4.26%, to $94.77 per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures for May rose $6.27, or 6.76%, to $98.96 per barrel; SC2604 crude oil futures rose 2.50 yuan per barrel, or 0.33%, to 749.10 yuan per barrel [1] - The report suggests holding long positions in crude oil as appropriate and paying attention to the resumption of flights Summary by Directory 1. Mexican Gulf Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - Arab Extra Light: Spread closed, down $11.67 month-on-month. Core driver is the significant expansion of the crude oil price disadvantage relative to WTI MEH [2] - Arab Light: Spread closed, down $14.73 month-on-month. Due to the dual deterioration of refining value and crude oil price disadvantage, and the soaring structure cost [2] - Nemba: Spread closed, down $0.42 month-on-month. High freight is the main drag despite the significant crude oil price advantage [2] - Agbami: Spread closed, down $1.65 month-on-month. The advantage of crude oil price is offset by high freight and structure cost [2] - Forties: Spread closed, down $1.75 month-on-month. Core drag is the crude oil price disadvantage relative to WTI MEH and high freight [2] - Arab Heavy: Spread closed, down $3.95 month-on-month. Mainly due to the significant increase in structure cost, eroding the arbitrage space [2] - Vasconia: Spread open, up $20.14 month-on-month. Key driver is the extremely deep discount of crude oil price, providing a huge price advantage [2] - Castilla: Spread open, up $16.13 month-on-month. Core driver is the extremely deep discount of crude oil price [2] - Napo: Spread open, up $14.01 month-on-month. Decisive factor is the huge discount of crude oil price [2] - Maya: Spread open, up $9.61 month-on-month. Benefit from the significant crude oil price discount, offsetting the negative impact of refining value [4] 2. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties: Spread closed, up $1.08 month-on-month. The crude oil price changes from disadvantage to significant advantage relative to Bonny Light, but is partially offset by the increase in structure cost [5] - Arab Extra Light: Spread closed, down $13.94 month-on-month, turning deeply negative. Core drag is the sharp expansion of the crude oil price disadvantage [5] - Saharan Blend: Spread open, up $1.17 month-on-month. Although the refining value turns negative, the crude oil price turns into an advantage to support the arbitrage window [5] - Cabinda: Spread closed, down $4.6 month-on-month. The deep negative refining value is the decisive factor for the closure of the arbitrage window [5] - Urals: Spread open, up $2.37 month-on-month, with a huge arbitrage space. Core driver is the huge advantage of its crude oil price relative to Bonny Light [5] 3. Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH: Spread closed, down $4.09 month-on-month, turning negative. Mainly because the crude oil price advantage relative to Forties weakens significantly and the structure cost soars [7] - Eagle Ford: Spread closed, down $7.12 month-on-month, turning negative. Similar reasons to WTI MEH, the weakening of price advantage and high structure cost are the main causes [7] - Azeri Light: Spread open, up $1.25 month-on-month. Strong refining value and significant price advantage jointly drive the arbitrage space [7] - Saharan Blend: Spread open, up $5.79 month-on-month. Abnormally strong refining value and significant price advantage are the core driving forces [7] - Bonny Light: Spread open, down $2.33 month-on-month. The extremely high refining value is largely offset by the significant price disadvantage and high structure cost [7] 4. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend: Spread closed, up $0.83 month-on-month (negative value decreases). Mainly because the relative price advantage of benchmark oil Urals slightly narrows [8] - Azeri Light: Spread closed, down $0.61 month-on-month. The price advantage of Urals still suppresses alternative oil types [8] - Bonny Light: Spread closed, down $8.34 month-on-month. The price advantage of Urals, high freight and soaring structure cost lead to deterioration [8] - Ekofisk: Spread closed, down $7.28 month-on-month. The strength of Urals is the systematic factor [8] 5. Chinese Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri: Spread open. The current spread data of Duri is abnormal and cannot be analyzed month-on-month [9] - Basrah Heavy: Spread closed, down $5.13 month-on-month. The significantly negative refining value is the main drag [9] - Napo: Spread open, up $10.52 month-on-month, maintaining a high level. Core driving force is the huge discount of its crude oil price relative to Dubai [9] - Maya: Spread closed, down $4.92 month-on-month. The negative refining value offsets its price advantage [9] - Mars: Spread open, up $5.04 month-on-month, turning from negative to positive. Mainly because the refining value significantly improves, reversing the negative arbitrage space in January [9] 6. Key Market News - Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Qassemi on the 9th firmly denied that Iran attacked Turkey, Azerbaijan and Cyprus, and called for vigilance against "false flag" operations [11] - Iran said that if it can be guaranteed not to be attacked again, the war can end [11] - US President Trump said that the US military action against Iran will "soon" end, oil and gas prices will rise, and he will lift some sanctions to reduce oil prices. He also threatened Cuba and claimed to transport 100 million barrels of oil from Venezuela [11] - According to British media, due to the military conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, many LNG carriers bound for Europe diverted to Asia, resulting in a decline in the UK's energy reserves, with only two days of natural gas reserves left [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests holding long positions in crude oil as appropriate and continuing to monitor upside risks [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of major crude oil futures contracts have increased, and the market situation and arbitrage opportunities in different regions have changed [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI April crude oil futures rose $3.33 per barrel, a 4.67% increase, to $74.56 per barrel; ICE Brent crude futures contract 04 rose $3.66 per barrel, a 4.71% increase, to $81.40 per barrel; SC2604 crude oil futures rose 78.70 yuan per barrel, a 13.99% increase, to 641.10 yuan per barrel [1] Mexican Gulf Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of most crude oils are closed, with significant changes in spreads compared to January. The main factors include price disadvantages, negative refining values, and high freight costs. However, Vasconia, Castilla, Napo, and Maya have positive spreads due to significant price discounts [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties' spread turned from negative to positive, with a significant increase. Arab Extra Light's spread remained basically flat. Saharan Blend's spread widened significantly, and Urals' spread increased with a large arbitrage space [4] Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - The spreads of WTI MEH and Eagle Ford narrowed, with WTI MEH approaching the break - even point and Eagle Ford turning negative. Azeri Light's spread remained basically flat, Saharan Blend's spread increased, and Bonny Light's spread turned negative [7] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The spreads of Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, and Ekofisk all decreased, mainly due to the expanding price advantage of the benchmark oil Urals [8] China Crude Oil Arbitrage - The spreads of Duri and Mars turned from negative to positive, with significant increases. Napo's spread narrowed but remained high. The spreads of Basrah Heavy and Maya decreased [9] Key Market News - The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending February 27 was 564.7 million barrels, higher than expected. There are political events in Iran, including the possible selection of a new leader and the CIA's plan to support the Kurdish armed forces. The US Senate will vote on the "War Powers Resolution" regarding Iran. Iraq may be forced to cut production by over 3 million barrels per day, and it has already cut production at the West Qurna 2 oil field by 450,000 barrels per day. There are also reports of a possible Saudi attack on Iran [10][11][13] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 1, indicating a relatively neutral to slightly positive outlook [12]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report suggests holding long positions in crude oil, indicating a positive outlook. Brent crude oil is expected to challenge the $70 mark [1]. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the crude oil market, including price movements, arbitrage opportunities in different regions, and key market news. It indicates that the crude oil market is influenced by various factors such as geopolitical events and supply - demand dynamics [1][2][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 International Crude Oil Prices - NYMEX WTI March crude oil futures rose $1.76, or 2.90%, to $62.39 per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 03 rose $1.98, or 3.02%, to $67.57 per barrel; SC2603 crude oil futures rose $6.90, or 1.54%, to $456.00 per barrel [1]. 3.2 Crude Oil Arbitrage Opportunities - **Mexico Gulf**: Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, Arab Heavy, and Vasconia all had negative spreads on January 26, indicating closed arbitrage windows. The negative spreads suggest import uneconomical or lack of competitiveness [2]. - **Atlantic**: Forties had a negative spread of -$4.28 on January 26, meaning it's uneconomical to transport North Sea Forties crude oil to USAC [2]. - **Northwest Europe**: WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Azeri Light, and Bonny Light all had positive spreads on January 26, with their arbitrage windows open. Azeri Light had a significant arbitrage space and strong competitiveness [3]. - **Mediterranean**: Saharan Blend and Azeri Light had large negative spreads on January 26, unable to compete with Urals crude oil, so their arbitrage windows were closed [4]. - **Asia**: In Singapore vs Tapis, Murban, Dubai, Bonny Light, and WTI MEH all had positive spreads, with their arbitrage windows open. However, the arbitrage window for US crude oil to Asia was extremely narrow. In Northeast Asia vs ESPO, Murban, Bonny Light, Forties, and Eagle Ford had negative spreads, indicating closed arbitrage windows due to the advantage of ESPO crude oil [5]. 3.3 Key Market News - Trump mentioned that a fleet was heading towards Iran and was not worried about the dollar's depreciation. - US Secretary of State Rubio said the Trump administration was ready to use force to ensure Venezuela's cooperation. - On January 27, an infrastructure in Brody, Lviv Oblast, Ukraine, was attacked. There were reports that the facility was connected to the "Friendship" oil pipeline, but Hungary said the pipeline itself was not attacked [7][8]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 1, indicating a moderately positive trend within the [-2, 2] range [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of crude oil is 1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook. The range of trend strength is from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [7]. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices are driven higher by geopolitical factors, and Brent may challenge $70 per barrel [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Crude Oil Prices - NYMEX WTI March crude oil futures rose $1.71 per barrel, a 2.88% increase, to $61.07 per barrel. ICE Brent crude futures contract 03 rose $1.82 per barrel, a 2.84% increase, to $65.88 per barrel. SC2603 crude oil futures rose $10.40, a 2.37% increase, to $449.80 per barrel [1]. Crude Oil Arbitrage - **Mexico Gulf**: The negative spreads of Vasconia, Castilla, and Napo widened, while the negative spread of Arab Heavy narrowed slightly, and the spread of Maya remained stable [2]. - **Atlantic**: The spread of WTI narrowed significantly, possibly due to rising freight costs. The spreads of Eagle and Azeri widened, indicating strong import demand and geographical advantages respectively [2]. - **Northwest Europe**: Similar to the Atlantic, the spread of WTI MEH narrowed, while those of Eagle Ford and Azeri widened [4]. - **Mediterranean**: The negative spreads of Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, and Bonny Light all improved, with the latter two showing significant improvement [4]. - **Asia**: The spreads of Duri and Maya remained stable, while the negative spread of Basrah Heavy increased slightly. The spread of Napo narrowed but the arbitrage window remained open, and the spread of Mars remained negative [5]. Key Market News - The Caspian Pipeline Consortium restored the transportation capacity of a major oil - export route from Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan's oil production was affected in December, with daily output dropping to just over 1.5 million barrels [6]. - Iraq's oil exports in December totaled 1.07651 billion barrels [6]. - Saudi Arabia's export value increased by 10.0% in November, with oil export value rising by 5.4% [6]. - Iran's missile capabilities and defense efficiency have improved compared to the "12 - day war" in 2025. An Iranian official warned the US and Israel against taking aggressive actions [6]. - Mexico is evaluating whether to stop oil shipments to Cuba due to concerns about US retaliation. The Trump administration is considering a full - scale blockade of Cuba's oil imports [6]. - There are signs that Israel is still seeking to attack Iran [6].

Market Overview - Global commodity prices mostly increased, with international oil prices showing active performance; ICE Brent crude futures rose by 1.04%, and NYMEX WTI crude futures also increased by 1.04% [1] - Precious metal futures saw significant gains, with COMEX gold futures up by 0.45% and COMEX silver futures rising sharply by 4.13% [1] - London base metals collectively rose, with LME copper increasing by 1.25% and LME aluminum up by 2.27% [1] Policy and Regulatory Developments - Six departments jointly released an implementation plan to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand for consumer goods, aiming for a significant optimization of the supply structure by 2027, with the formation of three trillion-level consumption fields and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots [2] - The Guangxi Futures Exchange announced that platinum futures will be listed on November 27, 2025, with a base price of 405 yuan per gram for various contracts, while palladium futures will also be listed on the same date with a base price of 365 yuan per gram [2] - Zhejiang Province issued a plan to build an integrated off-market trading hub for bulk commodities, aiming for steady growth in spot trading scale by the end of 2027 and an expanded influence of commodity price indices by the end of 2030 [2] Commodity Insights - Recent weak economic data from the U.S. has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in December, with the dollar index falling to 99.59; this has led to fluctuations in precious metals, particularly a significant rise in COMEX silver [4] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices saw a slight decline, averaging 21,390 yuan per ton, down by 50 yuan per ton, influenced by weak external markets and geopolitical tensions in East Asia [4] - The aluminum market is expected to remain volatile, with a projected trading range of 21,000 to 21,600 yuan per ton, as supply disruptions and macroeconomic shifts are anticipated [5] Livestock Market - The short-term outlook for the pig market indicates a phase of strong supply and weak demand, with prices expected to remain low; attention is needed on the impact of short-term stockpiling on market sentiment [6] - The mid-term forecast suggests an increase in pig supply due to the number of new piglets, which may limit price increases; however, if disease impacts are excluded, supply is expected to continue until September next year [6] - Long-term, a significant decrease in the number of breeding sows may ease supply pressure after September next year, presenting potential low-buy opportunities if the trend continues [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impact of escalating tensions in the Middle East on global markets, leading to declines in U.S. stock indices and significant increases in gold and oil prices due to heightened risk aversion and supply concerns [1][3][11]. Group 1: U.S. Stock Market Performance - All three major U.S. stock indices fell, with the Dow Jones down 1.58%, Nasdaq down 1.08%, and S&P 500 down 0.97% [3]. - The "fear index," or the S&P 500 volatility index, surged above 20, reaching its highest level since late May [3]. - The technology sector, represented by the seven major tech companies, also experienced declines, with the index down 0.86% and notable drops in stocks like Apple and Nvidia, which fell over 1% [6]. Group 2: Energy and Commodity Markets - International gold prices rose significantly, with COMEX gold futures increasing by 1.69% to $3459.8 per ounce, and London gold spot prices up 1.23% to $3427.71 per ounce [11][12]. - Oil prices surged due to concerns over potential disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supply, with NYMEX WTI crude oil futures rising by 6.67% to $72.58 per barrel and ICE Brent crude oil futures up 6.52% to $73.88 per barrel [11][12]. - Energy stocks saw a collective increase, with Houston energy stocks rising over 100% and U.S. energy stocks up over 62% [7].