2026 年 1 月 28 日 原油：多单持有，Brent 或挑战 70 美元 商 品 研 究 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【国际原油】 NYMEX WTI 3 月原油期货收涨 1.76 美元，涨幅 2.90%，报 62.39 美元/桶；ICE 布油期货 03 合 约收涨 1.98 美元，涨幅 3.02%，报 67.57 美元/桶;SC2603 原油期货收涨 6.90 美元，涨幅 1.54%， 报 456.00 元/桶。 1、 墨西哥湾原油套利 | 原油品 | 1 月 26 日价差 | 状态 | 简要分析 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | (美元/桶) | | | | Arab Extra | -3.34 | 关闭 | 价差为负，进口不经济。 | | Light | | | | | Arab | -4.71 | 关闭 | 价差更深，缺乏竞争力。 | | Light | | | | | Nemba | -5.5 | 关闭 | 安哥拉原油套利窗口关闭。 | | Arab | | 关闭 | 重质油对 Mars 的价差也为负 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 26 日 原油：地缘驱动走强，Brent 或挑战 70 美 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【国际原油】 NYMEX WTI 3 月原油期货收涨 1.71 美元/桶，环比+2.88%，报 61.07 美元/桶；ICE 布油期货 03 合约收涨 1.82 美元/桶，环比+2.84%，报 65.88 美元/桶;SC2603 原油期货收涨 10.40 美元，涨幅 2.37%，报 449.80 元/桶。 1、 墨西哥湾原油套利（同前日） | 原油 | 价差 (美 元/桶) | 变化数值 | (美元/桶) | | 变化说明 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Arab Heavy | -3.25 | | 0.06 | 价差负值微幅收窄 | | | Vasconia | -1.14 | | -0.32 | 价差负值扩大，套利窗口恶化 | | | Castilla | -4.51 | | -0.13 | 价差负值扩大，竞争力下降 | | | Napo | -6.45 | | -0.4 ...

Market Overview - Global commodity prices mostly increased, with international oil prices showing active performance; ICE Brent crude futures rose by 1.04%, and NYMEX WTI crude futures also increased by 1.04% [1] - Precious metal futures saw significant gains, with COMEX gold futures up by 0.45% and COMEX silver futures rising sharply by 4.13% [1] - London base metals collectively rose, with LME copper increasing by 1.25% and LME aluminum up by 2.27% [1] Policy and Regulatory Developments - Six departments jointly released an implementation plan to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand for consumer goods, aiming for a significant optimization of the supply structure by 2027, with the formation of three trillion-level consumption fields and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots [2] - The Guangxi Futures Exchange announced that platinum futures will be listed on November 27, 2025, with a base price of 405 yuan per gram for various contracts, while palladium futures will also be listed on the same date with a base price of 365 yuan per gram [2] - Zhejiang Province issued a plan to build an integrated off-market trading hub for bulk commodities, aiming for steady growth in spot trading scale by the end of 2027 and an expanded influence of commodity price indices by the end of 2030 [2] Commodity Insights - Recent weak economic data from the U.S. has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in December, with the dollar index falling to 99.59; this has led to fluctuations in precious metals, particularly a significant rise in COMEX silver [4] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices saw a slight decline, averaging 21,390 yuan per ton, down by 50 yuan per ton, influenced by weak external markets and geopolitical tensions in East Asia [4] - The aluminum market is expected to remain volatile, with a projected trading range of 21,000 to 21,600 yuan per ton, as supply disruptions and macroeconomic shifts are anticipated [5] Livestock Market - The short-term outlook for the pig market indicates a phase of strong supply and weak demand, with prices expected to remain low; attention is needed on the impact of short-term stockpiling on market sentiment [6] - The mid-term forecast suggests an increase in pig supply due to the number of new piglets, which may limit price increases; however, if disease impacts are excluded, supply is expected to continue until September next year [6] - Long-term, a significant decrease in the number of breeding sows may ease supply pressure after September next year, presenting potential low-buy opportunities if the trend continues [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impact of escalating tensions in the Middle East on global markets, leading to declines in U.S. stock indices and significant increases in gold and oil prices due to heightened risk aversion and supply concerns [1][3][11]. Group 1: U.S. Stock Market Performance - All three major U.S. stock indices fell, with the Dow Jones down 1.58%, Nasdaq down 1.08%, and S&P 500 down 0.97% [3]. - The "fear index," or the S&P 500 volatility index, surged above 20, reaching its highest level since late May [3]. - The technology sector, represented by the seven major tech companies, also experienced declines, with the index down 0.86% and notable drops in stocks like Apple and Nvidia, which fell over 1% [6]. Group 2: Energy and Commodity Markets - International gold prices rose significantly, with COMEX gold futures increasing by 1.69% to $3459.8 per ounce, and London gold spot prices up 1.23% to $3427.71 per ounce [11][12]. - Oil prices surged due to concerns over potential disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supply, with NYMEX WTI crude oil futures rising by 6.67% to $72.58 per barrel and ICE Brent crude oil futures up 6.52% to $73.88 per barrel [11][12]. - Energy stocks saw a collective increase, with Houston energy stocks rising over 100% and U.S. energy stocks up over 62% [7].