Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core View - The report suggests short - term observation of crude oil and warns of the recurrence of geopolitical risks [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI futures 02 contract dropped $2.83, a decline of 4.56%, closing at $59.19 per barrel; ICE Brent crude futures 03 contract fell $2.76, a decrease of 4.15%, at $63.76 per barrel; SC2603 crude oil futures closed down $10.60, a 2.34% drop, at 441.80 yuan per barrel [1] Crude Oil Arbitrage Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, Agbami, and Forties all have a closed arbitrage state, with respective arbitrage values of -$3.78, -$4.82, -$5.95, -$6.65, and -$10.4 per barrel due to factors like high freight, low cracking profit, weak demand, and lack of competitiveness [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties has a closed arbitrage state with an arbitrage value of -$1.95 per barrel due to limited trans - Atlantic arbitrage space; Arab Extra Light, Saharan Blend, and Urals have an open arbitrage state, with values of $2.22, $0.6, and $26.19 per barrel respectively, due to arbitrage opportunities, improved cost - effectiveness, and strong demand [2] Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTIMEH, Eagle Ford, and Bonny Light have an open arbitrage state, with values of $2.1, $2.5, and $2.45 per barrel respectively, due to good cracking profit and strong demand; Azeri Light has a closed arbitrage state with a value of -$0.36 per barrel because of environmental policy suppression [4] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend, Bonny Light, and Ekofisk all have a closed arbitrage state, with values of -$24.36, -$23.81, and -$27.19 per barrel respectively, due to low demand and structural over - supply [4] Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Murban, Bonny Light, Forties, and Eagle Ford all have a closed arbitrage state, with values of -$12.57, -$14.01, -$21.32, and -$11.71 per barrel respectively, due to fierce competition, weak demand, and narrowed arbitrage space [5] Key Market News - Iraq opposes the use of its territory as a springboard for attacks on Iran [5] - The US Treasury Department announced new sanctions against Iran [6] - At least one US aircraft carrier is being deployed to the Middle East [7] - Netanyahu asked Trump to postpone the strike on Iran [9] - Trump is closely monitoring the situation in Iran and keeps all options open [9] - Trump informed Iran that he has no intention to attack and asked for restraint [9] - Venezuela's oil production reached 1.2 million barrels per day in December [9] - Trump is delaying the decision on striking Iran and is consulting internally and with allies [9] - Venezuela's oil industry has been operating through phone and hand - written reports after a cyber - attack on PDVSA [9] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral state [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests paying attention to the upside risks such as the Iran issue, and Brent crude oil may challenge the range of $65 - $68 per barrel [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is 1, indicating a relatively neutral outlook [6] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Crude Oil Prices - NYMEX WTI futures contract 02 rose $1.36, or 2.35%, to $59.12 per barrel - ICE Brent crude futures contract 03 rose $1.35, or 2.18%, to $63.34 per barrel - SC2602 crude oil futures closed up 11.90 yuan per barrel, or 2.79%, at 437.70 yuan per barrel [1] 3.2 Crude Oil Arbitrage - **Mexico Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage**: All listed crude oil varieties (Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, Agbami, Forties) have a closed arbitrage state, with reasons including unprofitable imports, low cracking profits, high freight, weak demand, and lack of competitiveness [2] - **Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage**: Forties has a closed arbitrage state with limited trans - Atlantic arbitrage space, while Arab Extra Light has an open arbitrage state with an arbitrage opportunity in the US East [2] - **North - West Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage**: WTIMEH, Eagle Ford, and Bonny Light have an open arbitrage state due to good cracking profits, strong demand, and improved cost - effectiveness respectively. Azeri Light has a closed state because of environmental policies [3] - **Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage**: All listed crude oil varieties (Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk) have a closed arbitrage state due to low demand, high freight, and structural oversupply [3] - **Asia Crude Oil Arbitrage**: All listed crude oil varieties (Murban, Bonny Light, Forties, Eagle Ford) have a closed arbitrage state due to intense competition, weak demand, and narrowed arbitrage space [4] 3.3 Key Market News - Iranian President Pezeshkian stated that the government recognizes peaceful protests and is willing to meet with protest groups - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed the Iran situation with US Secretary of State Rubio - US President Trump said that the flow of oil and funds from Venezuela to Cuba will end - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi opposed the "Somaliland" colluding with Taiwan authorities for independence - Cuban Foreign Minister stated that Cuba will not yield to US extortion or military coercion [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Hold short positions in crude oil and pay attention to geopolitical disturbances [1] Core Viewpoints - On December 12, 2025, NYMEX WTI futures contract 01 fell $0.86, or 1.47%, to $57.60 per barrel; ICE Brent futures contract 02 fell $0.93, or 1.49%, to $61.28 per barrel; SC2601 crude oil futures closed down 6.40 yuan per barrel, or 1.45%, to 434.80 yuan per barrel [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [10] Summary by Directory 1. Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for various crude oils such as Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, etc., are closed, with negative arbitrage spaces ranging from -1.16 to -8.39 USD/barrel, showing weak competitiveness [2] 2. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties has no cost - advantage against Bonny Light, with an arbitrage space of -0.3 USD/barrel; Arab Extra Light and Saharan Blend present arbitrage opportunities with spaces of 0.93 and 2.68 USD/barrel respectively; Urals has a huge arbitrage space of 23.2 USD/barrel due to sanctions [4] 3. Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light show arbitrage opportunities against Forties, with arbitrage spaces ranging from 0.9 to 2.23 USD/barrel; Azeri Light has a weak arbitrage space [5] 4. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk, and Eagle Ford against Urals are closed, with large negative arbitrage spaces, indicating weak competitiveness [6][7] 5. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri, Napo, and Mars against Dubai present arbitrage opportunities, with spaces of 1.2, 5.08, and 1.33 USD/barrel respectively; Basrah Heavy and Maya have closed arbitrage windows [8] 6. Key Market News - Trump promised to contribute to Ukraine's security efforts if Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is reached; Trump mentioned that actions in Venezuela will soon take place on land; the Central Economic Work Conference was held on December 10 - 11 [11]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - Hold short positions in crude oil and monitor geopolitical disturbances [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI futures contract 01 rose by $0.21, or 0.36%, to $58.46 per barrel; ICE Brent futures contract 02 rose by $0.27, or 0.44%, to $62.21 per barrel; SC2601 crude oil futures closed down by 3.80 yuan per barrel, or 0.86%, to 440.50 yuan per barrel [1] 3.2 Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saudi extra - light crude, Angolan crude, Nigerian crude, North Sea crude, and some Saudi heavy crude are closed; Vasconia crude shows a weak arbitrage opportunity; Ecuador's Napo crude has a significant arbitrage space; Maya crude is close to the break - even point [2][4] 3.3 Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties and Cabinda crudes have insufficient competitiveness; Arab Extra Light and Saharan Blend crudes show arbitrage opportunities, with Urals crude having a huge arbitrage space due to sanctions - related discounts [4] 3.4 Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light crudes present arbitrage opportunities; Azeri Light crude has a weak arbitrage space [6] 3.5 Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk, and Eagle Ford crudes against Urals are all closed [7][8] 3.6 Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri, Napo, and Mars crudes show arbitrage opportunities; Basrah Heavy and Maya crudes have their arbitrage windows closed [9] 3.7 Key Market News - Venezuelan opposition leader Machado fled the country; the Fed announced short - term bond purchases and a 25BP interest rate cut; the US seized a Venezuelan oil tanker; Venezuela's President Maduro made a tough statement; a Russian "shadow fleet" oil tanker was sunk in the Black Sea [12] 3.8 Trend Intensity - The crude oil trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [11]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the short - term trend of crude oil is volatile, and it is recommended to continue holding short positions. The current trend strength of crude oil is - 1, suggesting a bearish outlook [1][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Crude Oil Prices - NYMEX WTI 01 futures contract rose $0.31/barrel, a 0.53% increase, closing at $58.95/barrel. - ICE Brent 02 futures contract rose $0.22/barrel, a 0.35% increase, closing at $62.67/barrel. - SC2601 crude oil futures rose 1.60 yuan/barrel, a 0.36% increase, closing at 450.90 yuan/barrel [1]. 3.2 Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of various crude oils such as Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, etc., are mostly closed, with different negative arbitrage spaces. For example, Arab Extra Light has an arbitrage space of -$5.68/barrel [2]. 3.3 Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties crude oil shows a slight negative arbitrage, with a trade volume of 36 MB/D in October. - Arab Extra Light's arbitrage window is slightly open but has no actual trade volume. - Saharan Blend has a significant arbitrage space, with a trade volume of 9 MB/D in October [5]. 3.4 Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Azeri Light, etc., are open, with different positive arbitrage spaces. For example, Eagle Ford has an arbitrage space of $1.27/barrel [6]. 3.5 Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, etc., are deeply closed. For example, Saharan Blend has an arbitrage space of -$16.12/barrel [7]. 3.6 Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri and Napo crude oils have open arbitrage windows but no recent trade volume. Basrah Heavy and Maya crude oils' arbitrage windows are closed [8]. 3.7 Key Market News - Venezuelan President Maduro said he had a phone call with US President Trump about 10 days ago. - Venezuela's oil exports in November rose slightly to about 921,000 barrels per day, the third - highest monthly average this year. - US EIA crude inventory and gasoline inventory data for the week ending November 28 deviated from expectations. - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng mentioned in an article about monetary policy adjustments [9][10][11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short positions in crude oil should be held, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. The trend strength of crude oil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI futures 01 contract rose by $0.77 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.32%, to $59.32 per barrel. ICE Brent futures 02 contract rose by $0.79 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.27%, to $63.17 per barrel. SC2601 crude oil futures closed up by 5 yuan per barrel, a gain of 1.11%, to 455.90 yuan per barrel [1]. Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - All light crude oil arbitrage windows flowing into USGC are deeply closed. US domestic crude oil has an overwhelming cost advantage over imported Middle - Eastern light crude oil, strongly suppressing the import demand for such crude oil. For coking refineries, there are selective opportunities. The arbitrage window for Colombian heavy crude Vasconia is slightly open (-$1.94), and the Mexican Maya crude oil arbitrage window is close to balance (-$1.16) [2]. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Arbitrage opportunities in this region are differentiated. North Sea Forties, Algerian Saharan Blend, and Russian Urals have economic viability. Notably, the high arbitrage value of Urals crude oil (+$15.60) reflects the large price discount due to geopolitical factors, driving a large amount of Russian crude oil to flow into this region [4]. Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - The trans - Atlantic light crude oil arbitrage window is slightly open. The arbitrage windows of WTI MEH (+$0.56), Eagle Ford (+$1.03), Azeri Light (+$0.04), Saharan Blend (+$1.37), and Bonny Light (+$0.15) are all open, but the economic viability is generally weak [5]. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - All arbitrage windows flowing into the Mediterranean are deeply closed. Urals crude oil has an absolute cost advantage in the Mediterranean region, consolidating its position as the main supply source [6]. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - For cracking refineries, all alternative crude oil arbitrage windows for ESPO are closed, and the negative values are large, indicating that ESPO has a strong market share and cost advantage in the Northeast Asian market. For coking refineries, there are significant opportunities. The arbitrage window for South American heavy crude Napo is open (+$5.68), and the arbitrage of Indonesian Duri and US Mars crude oil is also open [7]. Key Market News - On December 1st, shipping company Besiktas Shipping confirmed that an oil tanker carrying diesel was attacked by four external explosions near Dakar, Senegal. It was the third Russian - related vessel attacked in the past few days [8].