王彦龙 国泰海通通信分析师: 好的，各位投者大家好。那个，我是国泰君安通信分析师文云龙。今天，我单独给大家可 能汇报一期吧。因为这周相对来说大家的这个交易相对来说是不顺畅的，尤其是通讯这边 光模块为代表的这些公司吧。也存在着其实很多争议，甚至我们看到了一些现象，就是大 家可能把一些技术层面的一个争议，因为可能就衍生成为一种互相对立的一个情况，对。 所以这块的话，今天想通过这个会议给大家可能做一个我们的一个观点的陈述所以今天可 能更多的是要行业层面的一个分享。 当然就是对国家的公共块，包括这个 CPU，甚至 NPU，包括 OBO 什么之类的，每个人都 有自己的一个观点，因为我们每个人其实看到的都大项的一个小指甲，然后可能把它拼起 来之后。你可能就会去说服别人，可能去同意自己的一个观点，这个是一个很正常的一个 现象，每一个新的一个技术的一个眼镜都会遇到这么一个过程，对吧？就跟之前在 24 年 的时候，同览的时候，刚开始其实大家也是有质疑的，后来公开了方案之后，然后后来突 然其实有一个比较大的一个发展，以及到现在为止的话，突然其实也面临了一，一些争议 所以这是很正常的 那么光，这个眼镜的话，从原来的这个 10G，2 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the growing importance of integrated semiconductor optical modules, specifically On-Board Optical (OBO), Near-Package Optical (NPO), and Co-Packaged Optical (CPO) solutions, which are expected to see a compound annual growth rate of 50% in shipment volume by 2033 [2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Integrated optical solutions are significantly improving transmission capacity and processing for AI systems, providing higher bandwidth at lower power consumption [2][4]. - The transition from copper to optical solutions is anticipated to lead to a non-linear performance enhancement, with potential performance increases of up to 80 times compared to existing solutions [7]. Group 2: Key Players and Future Projections - Major companies like NVIDIA, Intel, Marvell, and Broadcom are currently leading the development of CPO technology, which is expected to drive substantial revenue growth and shipment volume by 2027 [4]. - By 2033, it is projected that over half of the revenue and shipment volume will come from integrated semiconductor optical I/O solutions [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Counterpoint Research highlights the significant growth potential of integrated semiconductor optical modules, particularly embedded optical interconnects, which are expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50% by 2033, driven by advancements in AI and high-bandwidth network architectures [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The shipment volume of integrated optical solutions, including On-Board Optical (OBO), Near-Package Optical (NPO), and Co-Packaged Optical (CPO), is projected to grow at a CAGR of 50% by 2033 [2]. - The transition from copper to optical technology is anticipated to enhance bandwidth and reduce power consumption, with embedded optical modules expected to see a significant increase in adoption [2][3]. - By 2027, widespread adoption of NPO and CPO is expected to drive a triple-digit year-on-year revenue growth, with their share in total shipments reaching double digits [2][3]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - CPO is identified as a game changer for AI computing, enabling ultra-high bandwidth expansion and significant reductions in power consumption [3][5]. - The shift towards "less copper, more light" will lead to a substantial decrease in copper usage at each stage of transition from OBO to NPO to CPO, resulting in nonlinear performance improvements [7]. - The performance of 3D CPO solutions may exceed current technologies by up to 80 times, marking a significant leap in capabilities [7]. Group 3: Key Players - Major companies leading the CPO field include NVIDIA, Intel, Marvell, and Broadcom, with ongoing technological evolution expected to be a gradual process [3][5].