GTC、OFC 小结：光的新起点 20260322 摘要 RubyUltra 方案首次在 scale-up 层应用光互联，2026 年 1.6T 光模块 放量，2027 年需求将大幅增长，行业高景气度预计持续 3-5 年。 供应链物料极度短缺，光芯片、隔离器锁单至 2027-2030 年；2026 年 因算力上线迫切，预计出现支付加急费的"急单溢价"现象。 市场空间远超预期，2026 年 800G/1.6T 增速同比超 3 倍，2028 年端 口数或达数亿级，Lumentum 预测潜在空间达 900 亿美元。 技术路线由分歧转向协同，英伟达、谷歌、Arista 向开放生态靠拢， CPO/NPO/LPO 方案共存以提升带宽密度并优化成本。 中际旭创、新易盛、天孚通信等国内龙头从产品供应转向标准制定，深 度参与 FAU 及光引擎封装，打破"外置光源"价值量限制。 硅光与薄膜铌酸锂方案大规模应用，通过"一拖四/八"设计分散光芯片 短缺风险，提升带宽密度并缓解供应链压力。 国内算力受 2025 年流片中断影响，2026Q1 业绩承压，预计 2026Q2 中下旬迎来大规模出货与部署拐点。 Q&A GTC 与 OFC 两 ...

中金研究 我们参加了于3月17日-19日在美国洛杉矶举行的OFC 2026大会。作为全球光通信行业风向标之一，根据官网，本届大会汇聚超1.6万名参会人和700余 家参展企业，海内外科技企业同台竞技，纷纷展出光通信领域前沿技术与成果。从本次OFC大会中，我们感受到在位厂商对AI大周期的信心，建议关 注Scale up CPO/NPO、Scale across、OCS等光通信行业发展趋势。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 Scale up CPO趋势明确， NPO方案有 望率先放量。 CPO是本次OFC焦点话题之一。中国企业在FAU、ELS模块、OE光引擎封装等环节表现出产业引领地 位；日美企业在光芯片、连接插芯等环节展出更多创新方案。我们认为，尽管CPO在实现大规模商用上仍面临难题，但在scale up场景中，由于对 beachfront density和单位带宽功耗的要求明显高于scale out，CPO的意义更加突出、确切，产业共识认同CPO将在scale up增量场景中明确放量，我们预计 有望在2H27-2028放量。得益于NPO在维护成本、可靠性、产业链复制等方面的优势，我们判断2027 ...

GTC&OFC 总结：光互联、全液冷大时代 2026 年 03 月 21 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 60% 72% 84% 96% 108% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 通信 沪深300 相关研究报告 《重视"Token 工厂"三大投资主线 —行业点评报告》-2026.3.19 《GTC&OFC 或催化光、液冷、电源 等板块—行业周报》-2026.3.15 《重视腾讯云涨价投资机会—行业点 评报告》-2026.3.11 蒋颖（分析师） 杜致远（联系人） duzhiyuan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124070064 GTC 大会：全新架构亮相 GTC 2026 大会，英伟达营收预计达万亿 GTC 2026 大会于 2026 年 3 月 17 日开幕，英伟达展示了采用台积电 3nm EU V 工艺、搭载 HBM4 内存的全新 Rubin 系统，该系统由 7 款芯片组成并搭配 5 套不同场景的机架式架构，其中 LPU 亮眼登场，推理、训练性能大幅提升 且单 Token 成本降低 10 倍，将于 ...

Q&A 与 2025 年相比，2026 年 OFC 大会在市场关注度、产业进展以及技术方向 上呈现出哪些显著的变化和超预期的亮点？ OFC 光电连接亮点梳理 20260322 摘要 光通信速率跨代跃升，2026 年 OFC 焦点直指 6.4T/12.8T，3.2T 仅为 过渡方案，AI 芯片互联需求倒逼技术迭代超预期。 2027 年全球高速光模块市场规模预计达 800 亿美元，其中 800G 与 1.6T 出货量预期均上调至 8,000 万只，可插拔方案仍是资金容纳量最 大的主航道。 CPO 技术确定性落地，预计 2026 年小批量组网，2027 年底大规模应 用；OCS 成为超预期增量市场，2030 年规模看至 40 亿美元。 DCI 市场受分布式算力驱动，预计 2026 年下半年爆发，2030 年规模 达 80-100 亿美元，相干技术成为电信级产品切入数据中心的关键。 中国厂商影响力剧增，中际旭创、新易盛、华工科技等技术达行业首创， 并首次加入北美标准联盟，产业链地位从跟随转向定义标准。 AEC 铜连接在 1.6T 时代凭借性价比优势保持竞争力，传输距离提升至 6-7 米，预计 2027 年市场规模至少 ...

直击 2026 OFC20260319 摘要 AI 算力需求驱动 Scale-across（跨域拓展）成为新趋势，其带宽需求 约为传统 DCI 网络的 14 倍，目前渗透率不足 30%，增长空间巨大。 Scale-up 场景中 CPO、NPO、XPO 技术路线并存，英伟达主推 CPO， 但因供应链成熟度问题，具备热插拔、高密度优势的 XPO 方案近期关注 度显著提升。 XPO 封装相比 1.6T OSFP 模块面板密度提升 4 倍，集成冷板设计支持 400W+散热，有效解决了风冷散热瓶颈并延长了可插拔模块生命周期。 薄膜铌酸锂与硅光结合的 PIC 方案成为单波 400G 主流，预计在 3.2T 及更高增速市场渗透领先；VCSEL 方案有望缓解 EML/CW 光源供应链 紧张。 Lumentum 预测 2030 年相关市场空间达 900 亿美元，其 OCS 业务已 获数十亿美元协议；Ciena 在云厂商光系统市场份额达 53%，800G 相 关产品 2026 年产能已售罄。 中国厂商在光封装领域实力雄厚，旭创、新易盛、天孚通信等已布局 NPO/XPO/OCS 及 2.5D 封装，有望在 CPO 时代实现从代工到 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|通信 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 通信行业 OFC 光模块龙头多元化卡位超预期 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-03-19 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -20% 3% 26% 48% 71% 94% 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 01/26 03/26 通信 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]韩东 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260523050005 | | 021-38003776 | | gfhandong@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 王昊 | | SAC 执证号：S0260525030001 | | 021-38003541 | | shwanghao@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 王亮 | | SAC 执证号：S0260519060001 | | SFC CE No. BFS478 | | 021-38003658 | | gfwangliang@gf.com.cn | ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the AI computing network industry, highlighting three key investment directions: optical communication, network equipment and chips, and AIDC computing infrastructure [4][8]. Core Insights - The evolution of AI computing networks is shifting from Scale-out to Scale-up, with significant advancements in optical communication technology and a rapid increase in demand. The report emphasizes the importance of hardware technology solutions and the ongoing domestic replacement of chips within the Ethernet ecosystem [5][8]. - The OFC 2026 event is expected to reveal critical trends in optical communication, including the emergence of NPO and XPO as new competitive arenas, and the full introduction of 400G/lambda technology, signaling the approach of the 3.2T era [37][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Review and Outlook: What Stage is the Industry and Investment At? - The AI-driven technological transformation, particularly in LLM training and inference, has propelled the optical communication industry into a new cycle, with a notable change in the supply-demand relationship compared to previous cycles [14]. - The current architecture is increasingly influenced by computing power, with a significant opening of domestic computing network space as solutions evolve from Scale-out to Scale-up [17][20]. 2. Domestic and International Computing Networks: Two Flowers Blooming - The report identifies key players in the optical communication sector, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication, as well as in computing equipment like Unisplendour and Ruijie Networks [8]. - The report discusses the competitive landscape of optical communication technologies, emphasizing the coexistence of various paths rather than a simple replacement scenario [10][43]. 3. The Debate on xPO: Where is Optical Communication Headed? - The report outlines the competitive dynamics of optical modules, highlighting the significance of pluggable optics and the expected dominance of 800G/1.6T pluggable modules in the AIDC optical interconnect market by 2026-2027 [47]. - It also discusses the potential of CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) and NPO (Near-Packaged Optics) as significant variables in the industry, with expectations for their deployment in the near future [57][60]. 4. Key Trends from OFC 2026 - The report notes that the introduction of 400G/lambda technology and the advancements in optical modules by leading Chinese manufacturers mark a pivotal moment for the industry, indicating a shift towards higher bandwidth and lower power consumption solutions [38][41]. - The report anticipates that the next few years will see a rapid evolution in optical communication technologies, with a focus on diverse paths and product forms, leading to extended opportunities across the industry chain [44][64].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication sector and communication equipment manufacturing [8]. Core Insights - The upcoming GTC and OFC conferences are expected to catalyze developments in the communication sector, particularly in areas such as optical modules, liquid cooling technologies, fiber optics, and copper connections [1][2][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI computing chain investment opportunities, suggesting a focus on companies that are well-positioned in this space [1][2]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The communication index fell by 0.12% last week, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.70%, and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.76% [1][11]. Key Companies and Dynamics - The report identifies a primary investment theme in the communication industry as the AI computing chain, recommending companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and others. It also highlights two secondary themes: core assets (China Mobile, China Telecom) and new productive forces (commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy) [3]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include: - Wolong Huacai (002130 CH) with a target price of 43.21 and a "Buy" rating [34]. - China Telecom (601728 CH) with a target price of 9.11 and a "Buy" rating [34]. - China Mobile (600941 CH) with a target price of 126.20 and a "Buy" rating [34]. - Xinyu Sheng (300502 CH) with a target price of 476.71 and a "Buy" rating [34]. - Arista Networks (ANET US) with a target price of 166.30 and a "Buy" rating [34]. - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308 CH) with a target price of 626.68 and a "Buy" rating [34]. - Ruijie Network (301165 CH) with a target price of 102.51 and a "Buy" rating [34]. - Guanghuan Xinwang (300383 CH) with a target price of 18.87 and an "Overweight" rating [34]. Upcoming Events and Focus Areas - The report suggests monitoring developments in the following areas during the GTC and OFC conferences: 1. Optical modules: Focus on Nvidia's statements regarding CPO technology and the performance of NPO and XPO prototypes [2][12]. 2. Liquid cooling: Attention to advancements in the Feynman generation technology and domestic supply chain progress [2][13]. 3. Fiber optics: Updates on the commercialization of hollow-core fiber technology [2][14]. 4. Copper connections: The potential impact of LPU cabinet forms on the market perception of copper cable lifecycles [2][14].

Core Insights - CPO has emerged as a highly discussed technology in AI data centers, positioned as a potential solution to bandwidth, latency, and power consumption challenges faced by AI workloads [2][4] - Despite impressive demonstrations at industry events, actual deployment of CPO in most data centers remains limited, with a cautious attitude prevalent among data center managers [2][4] - The transition to CPO is not just a technical upgrade but involves significant changes in user psychology, risk tolerance, and the relationship between infrastructure buyers and suppliers [2][4] Group 1: CPO's Relevance and Advantages - CPO is not a new technology; its concept dates back years, but its relevance has surged with the rise of AI as a core workload in data centers [4] - CPO is seen as a solution to specific problems in AI data centers, particularly as the industry moves towards higher speeds (112G and 224G SerDes) where electrical interconnects become inefficient [4] - The advantages of CPO include energy efficiency improvements of 20%-40% in interconnect power consumption at 800G to 1.6T rates, potentially saving 5-15 watts per 800G port and reducing overall switch power consumption by 200-500 watts [5] Group 2: User Perspectives and Adoption Challenges - There is a divide in attitudes towards CPO among data center operators, with some fascinated by its potential while others are skeptical about operational risks [8] - Many traditional data center managers have limited knowledge of CPO, and even established suppliers of pluggable optical modules are often unaware of its implications [8] - CPO is viewed as a critical technology for ultra-large-scale enterprises, which are already experimenting with it to manage power budgets and enhance performance [9] Group 3: Transition Technologies and Market Dynamics - Users are likely to adopt transitional solutions like NPO and LPO before fully committing to CPO, as these provide some benefits without the risks associated with full co-packaging [12][13] - The rise of external laser sources (ELSFP) may reintroduce some level of modularity to CPO systems, addressing maintenance concerns while also presenting new risks [14] - The influence of key suppliers like Broadcom and NVIDIA is significant in shaping user perceptions and driving CPO adoption through credible engineering support [15] Group 4: Future Deployment Phases - The deployment of CPO is expected to follow a three-phase approach: skepticism to acceptance (2026-2028), acceptance to reliance (2029-2032), and reliance to optimization (2032-2035) [23] - The success of CPO will depend on overcoming challenges related to laser technology, packaging yield, and thermal design [23] - The evolution of AI workloads and the ongoing development of copper cabling will also impact the adoption rate of CPO technology [24]

Summary of the Conference Call on AI Transceiver Industry Industry Overview - The conference discussed the **AI transceiver industry** within the **Greater China Technology Hardware** sector, focusing on upcoming catalysts related to the **2026 Optical Fiber Communication Conference (OFC)** scheduled for **March 17-19, 2026** in the United States [1][2][3]. Key Points Upcoming Conference and Expectations - The **OFC** is anticipated to be a significant catalyst for **AI transceiver stocks**, with leading vendors expected to showcase innovative optical communication products, including **NPO (New Product Offerings)** and **OCS (Optical Communication Solutions)** demonstrations [2][3]. Importance of Product Demonstrations - New product demonstrations are crucial as investors are concerned that **co-packaged optics (CPO)** could disrupt pluggable transceiver vendors. Demonstrating meaningful product innovation is essential to alleviate these concerns and support a positive outlook on the sector's long-term growth prospects [4][5]. Growth Potential - The growth potential of optical communications within AI infrastructure is substantial. Leading players in the industry are well-positioned to leverage their technological expertise to drive innovation in next-generation products [5][6]. Positive Industry Outlook - A positive view on the AI transceiver industry is reiterated, emphasizing that both **NPO** and **OCS** represent long-term structural growth drivers. The report suggests that both **CPO** and pluggable transceivers can experience rapid growth [6]. Additional Insights Company-Specific Catalysts - Specific companies mentioned include: - **Eoptolink Technology Inc Ltd (300502.SZ)**: Expected to have a high impact from new product demos at OFC [10]. - **Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co Ltd (300394.SZ)**: Also anticipated to benefit significantly from the conference [10]. - **Accelink Technologies Co. Ltd. (002281.SZ)**: Expected to showcase new products that could act as a positive catalyst [10]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation methodology for companies like **Accelink Technologies** and **Suzhou TFC** involves a residual income model with a probability-weighted approach reflecting different market scenarios (bull, base, bear) [11][12]. Market Growth Projections - High-end transceiver demand is projected to grow at a **CAGR of 24%** in the base case from **2026-2028**, with net profit CAGR estimates ranging from **11% to 37%** depending on market conditions [14][17]. Risks and Opportunities - Risks include slower-than-expected growth in the datacom market and intensified competition, while opportunities may arise from faster adoption of optical engines and stronger demand for high-capacity products like **800G** and **1.6T** [14][17]. Conclusion - The upcoming OFC is positioned as a pivotal event for the AI transceiver industry, with significant implications for growth and innovation. Companies that successfully demonstrate new products are likely to enhance their market positions and investor confidence.