Group 1 - The event "DCE·Industry Action: Futures + OTC Empowering Stable Operations for Enterprises" was successfully held to address the risk management needs of the chlor-alkali chemical industry, aiming to enhance the operational capabilities of enterprises [1][3] - The training featured three senior experts who provided insights tailored to the actual needs of enterprises, focusing on the current supply-demand dynamics and future price trends of the PVC market [1] - The event facilitated face-to-face communication to accurately diagnose the actual risk management needs of enterprises, effectively delivering knowledge on applicable financial derivative tools [3] Group 2 - The training included detailed discussions on key aspects of hedging operations, supported by practical case studies to clarify core issues and strategies in hedging [1] - The event emphasized the importance of futures companies in supporting the real economy, with a commitment to exploring new service models to inject strong financial momentum into the sustainable development of the real economy [3] - The training provided clear guidance on the specific processes and operational points of PVC futures delivery, helping enterprises manage delivery risks effectively [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: PVC Futures Weekly Report (20250721 - 0725) [1] - Report Date: July 21, 2025 [3] - Research Institution: Anliang Futures Research Institute [3] - Industry: PVC Futures [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The fundamentals of PVC currently lack a clear driving force, and in the short - term, PVC is likely to fluctuate following market sentiment [4][5][7] Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's PVC Market Review - **PVC Spot**: The domestic PVC price in East China was 4,840 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. International PVC prices in China CIF, Northwest Europe FOB, Southeast Asia CIF, and India CIF remained unchanged week - on - week at 700, 750, 660, and 720 US dollars/ton respectively. As of July 18, 55% of the market had a neutral outlook, 10% were bullish, and 35% were bearish [8] - **PVC Futures**: Last week, the closing price of the PVC main contract fluctuated between 5,010 - 4,934 yuan/ton, and the settlement price fluctuated between 4,985 - 4,944 yuan/ton. As of July 18, the closing price was 4,937 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 43 yuan/ton (a decline of 0.86%), and the settlement price was 4,957 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 56 yuan/ton (a decline of 1.12%). The basis was - 97 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan/ton [10] 2. Supply and Demand Analysis - **PVC Enterprise Operating Rate**: Last week, the operating rate of PVC production enterprises was 77.59%, a week - on - week increase of 0.62% and a year - on - year increase of 7.19%. Among them, the calcium carbide method was 79.71%, a week - on - week increase of 0.50% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39%, and the ethylene method was 71.95%, a week - on - week increase of 0.94% and a year - on - year increase of 12.74% [7][13] - **Social Inventory**: As of July 17, the PVC social inventory increased by 5.42% week - on - week to 657,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.15%. The inventory in East China was 600,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.55%. The inventory in South China was 57,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.04% and a year - on - year increase of 11.05% [7][15] - **PVC Downstream Enterprise Operating Rate**: As of July 18, the operating rate of PVC pipe enterprises was 33.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 10.41% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.65%. The operating rate of PVC profile enterprises was 34.55%, unchanged week - on - week and a year - on - year decrease of 25.18%. The operating rate of PVC film enterprises was 71.67%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.52% [7][17] 3. Cost and Gross Margin - **Cost**: As of July 18, the cost of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,933 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 96 yuan/ton, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC was 5,579 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton [19] - **Gross Margin**: As of July 18, the gross margin of calcium carbide - based PVC was - 315 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 130 yuan/ton, and the gross margin of ethylene - based PVC was - 595 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 26 yuan/ton [7][19] 4. Price Spread and Structure - **Ethylene - Calcium Carbide Price Spread**: As of July 18, the ethylene - calcium carbide price spread was 210 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton [23] - **Near - and Far - Month Main Contract Price Spreads**: As of July 18, the 1 - 5 spread was - 204 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread was 323 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was - 119 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton [23] 5. Technical Analysis - Last week, the V2509 contract fluctuated weakly. The highest price during the week was 5,027 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 4,922 yuan/ton. The Bollinger Bands indicator's opening slightly contracted, and the futures mainly traded between the middle and upper bands. The RSI indicator mainly operated in the 50 - 80 range, indicating a bullish consolidation state [7][26]