1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon market is expected to be weak. The market anticipates significant production cuts in the future. This week, production decreased month - on - month, demand declined slightly, and the overall supply - demand remains in an oversupply state. There are concerns about the supply of raw materials for overseas mines, which may affect the mining rhythm in the long term. The price of port manganese ore has risen significantly, and the immediate production profit of alloy plants has been mostly consumed by manganese ore. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy of near - weak and far - strong [3]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon market is also expected to be weak. The tight balance of supply and demand has eased, the overall production cost is relatively firm, production has decreased slightly, and the production of magnesium metal has declined significantly from its high level. Factory quotes have increased, and low - priced goods are hard to find in the market. The market still has expectations of cost increases in the coal - related industrial chain due to crude oil shortages, and price fluctuations are relatively large. Fundamentally, it is recommended to take a bearish stance, but be vigilant about future coal - related prices [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Manganese Ore Inventory - The total port inventory of manganese ore is 474.5 tons, with a slight increase month - on - month. Tianjin Port's inventory increased slightly to 341.4 tons, significantly higher than the same period last year, and Qinzhou Port's inventory increased slightly to 132.6 tons, also significantly higher than the same period last year [14]. - In Tianjin Port, the inventory of South African ore decreased slightly to 237.2 tons, the inventory of Gabon ore decreased significantly to 21.9 tons, far lower than the same period last year, and the inventory of Australian ore decreased significantly to 43.7 tons, still higher than the same period last year [18]. Manganese Ore Price - In Tianjin Port, the price of Gabon lumps is 48 yuan/ton - degree, Australian lumps are 47 yuan/ton - degree, and South African semi - carbonate is 44 yuan/ton - degree. The manganese ore market is running strongly, and most market transactions are of a trading nature, while factories are cautious in purchasing and mostly only replenish a small amount of essential inventory [20]. Production - As of March 27, the weekly production of silicon - manganese increased to 19.17 tons. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia decreased slightly to 14,460 tons/day, in Ningxia decreased slightly to 5,705 tons/day, in Yunnan increased to 890 tons/day, in Guizhou increased to 1,905 tons/day, and in Guangxi increased to 1,970 tons/day [32]. Demand - As of March 27, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises was 11.88 tons, and the weekly production of the five major steel products decreased to 839.58 tons. The proportion of rebar in the five major steel products in Mysteel sample data increased significantly month - on - month [37]. Price - The market price in Inner Mongolia is around 6,230 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin it is 6,300 yuan/ton. A large steel group in Hebei set the purchase price at 6,150 yuan/ton in March and replenished 5,100 tons this week [50]. Chemical Coke Price - This week, the price of chemical coke increased slightly by 50 yuan/ton. The ex - factory prices of 25 - 40mm in Yinchuan, Ordos, and Alxa are 1,190, 1,140, and 1,140 yuan/ton respectively [53]. Production Profit - The point - to - point profit of manganese silicon has improved significantly [57]. Month - Spread - As of March 26, the 5 - 9 month - spread of manganese silicon was - 58 yuan/ton, continuing to fluctuate at a low level [60]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The futures price is fluctuating and consolidating, and the basis has strengthened slightly. As of March 26, the total of manganese silicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 28.85 tons [64]. Ferrosilicon Production - As of March 27, on the supply side, the weekly production was 10.21 tons, slightly decreasing month - on - month. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia was 5,275 tons, in Qinghai was 1,535 tons, in Ningxia was 4,080 tons, and in Shaanxi was 2,210 tons [76]. Demand - The consumption of ferrosilicon by Mysteel sample steel mills totaled 1.93 tons, lower than the same period last year [80]. - The export price of magnesium metal at Tianjin Port is 2,515 US dollars/ton, and the market price is 17,050 yuan/ton, increasing slightly month - on - month. The weekly production of magnesium metal was 19,446 tons, decreasing slightly month - on - month but higher than the same period last year. Recently, the prices of raw materials such as coal and ferrosilicon have been high, and the price of magnesium ingots has increased accordingly. Low - priced goods in the market are hard to find. Some traders said they are mainly inquiring and not in a hurry to stock up [84]. Export - As of March 27, the overseas FOB price of 75 ferrosilicon was 1,205 US dollars/ton, and that of 72 ferrosilicon was 1,135 US dollars/ton, increasing significantly month - on - month. The export volume of ferrosilicon decreased in February [87]. Raw Material Situation - As of March 27, the quotes of mainstream regional semi - coke small materials remained stable. The current prices are 705 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 805 yuan/ton in Ningxia, and 695 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The price of iron oxide scale is 730 yuan/ton [95]. Production Profit - As of March 26, the point - to - point profit of ferrosilicon has improved significantly. The production profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Qinghai are 156, 225, 101, and - 193 yuan/ton respectively [110]. Month - Spread - As of March 26, the 5 - 9 month - spread of ferrosilicon was - 80 yuan/ton, weakening significantly month - on - month [113]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The futures price is fluctuating and consolidating, and the basis of ferrosilicon fluctuates slightly. As of March 26, the total of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 5.81 tons, higher than the same period last year [116]. Balance Sheet Manganese Silicon - From July 2025 to June 2026, the total supply and demand of manganese silicon show different trends. There are periods of oversupply and tight supply. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption also change over time [119]. Ferrosilicon - From July 2025 to June 2026, the total supply and demand of ferrosilicon also show different trends. There are periods of oversupply and tight supply. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption also change over time [120].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has significantly recovered, while the profit of ethylene - based production is relatively low, and the current valuation is neutral. There are expectations of passive production cuts in ethylene - based production and seasonal maintenance, and the overall load in March is expected to decline. Although the domestic demand is under pressure, overseas demand may increase due to raw material shortages, and the market is expected to turn to destocking in March. In the short term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, the market will mainly show a rebound, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is 2,550 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 450 yuan; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is 2,910 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 205 yuan; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 735 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has significantly recovered, while the profit of ethylene - based production is relatively low, and the current valuation is neutral [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 81.4%, a 0.2% increase month - on - month. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 82.9%, a 2.3% increase month - on - month; the ethylene method is 77.6%, a 4.6% decrease month - on - month. In March, some enterprises may start spring maintenance, and with the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the ethylene - based production load is expected to further decline, and the overall load is expected to decline [11]. - **Demand**: The export tax - rebate policy is planned to be cancelled on April 1st, and the short - term effect of rush - exporting has declined. However, due to the lack of raw materials in Asia, the load reduction in Northeast Asia may bring export growth opportunities. The start - up rates of the three major downstream industries are gradually recovering from the Spring Festival holiday. The load of pipes is 38%, a 5% increase month - on - month; the load of films is 60%, a 13% increase month - on - month; the load of profiles is 30%, a 2.6% increase month - on - month; the overall downstream load is 39.3%, a 3.5% increase month - on - month. The pre - sales volume of PVC last week was 1.09 million tons, a 200,000 - ton increase week - on - week [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 377,000 tons, a 81,000 - ton reduction week - on - week; the social inventory was 1.407 million tons, a 3,000 - ton increase week - on - week; the overall inventory was 1.784 million tons, a 78,000 - ton reduction week - on - week; the number of warehouse receipts decreased seasonally. It is expected that the overall load in March will decline, and overseas exports are expected to be supported by the shortage of ethylene raw materials in Northeast Asia, and the market is expected to turn to destocking in March [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report provides multiple charts, including the PVC term structure, the price of PVC East China SG - 5, the PVC spot basis, the 5 - 9 spread of PVC, the active contract positions and trading volume of PVC, and the total positions and trading volume of PVC, to show the market conditions of PVC futures and spot [15][18][21][25][27]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: The in - factory inventory is accelerating destocking, and the social inventory is stable. The report presents multiple charts to show the in - factory inventory of calcium carbide - based PVC, the social inventory of PVC, the total inventory of in - factory and social, and the number of PVC warehouse receipts [32][33][40]. - **Profit**: The report provides charts of the comprehensive profit of Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integration, the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC, the profit of ethylene - based PVC, and the profit of Inner Mongolia's calcium carbide [42]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Calcium Carbide**: The price of calcium carbide has rebounded. The report shows the price, inventory, and start - up rate of calcium carbide through charts [48][51][53]. - **Other Raw Materials**: The price of semi - coke has declined, while the prices of ethylene and caustic soda have rebounded. The report presents the market prices of semi - coke, 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, liquid chlorine in Shandong, and the CFR spot price of Northeast Asian ethylene through charts [54][55]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Capacity and Production**: The report shows the historical trend of PVC production capacity, the production capacity put into operation in 2025, and the raw materials consumed by the production capacity put into operation in 2025 through charts and tables [59][61][63]. - **Start - up Rate**: The PVC start - up rate remains at a high level, the ethylene - based production load has begun to decline, and the calcium carbide - based production load has increased. The report presents the start - up rates of calcium carbide - based PVC, ethylene - based PVC, and overall PVC, as well as the weekly production volume of PVC through charts [66][70][71]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Downstream Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of the three major downstream industries are gradually recovering. The report shows the start - up rates of PVC films, profiles, pipes, and the overall downstream through charts [75][77][80][81]. - **Export and Pre - sales**: The report shows the export volume of PVC, the export volume to India, and the pre - sales volume of PVC through charts [82][84][86]. - **Related Indicators**: The report also shows the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area through a chart [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Manganese Silicon - The overall view is bearish. After a sharp rally this week, the price is oscillating at a high level. Due to overseas geopolitical conflicts, oil prices have soared, leading to a significant increase in shipping costs. As manganese ore has a high degree of external dependence, some market participants are worried about the stability of its subsequent shipments. Fundamentally, silicon - manganese is still in a state of oversupply. High production keeps manganese ore prices relatively firm in the short term. After the Spring Festival, downstream steel mills have gradually entered the resumption cycle. The procurement time of some northern steel mills is undetermined. After the Two Sessions, the demand for dual - silicon is expected to gradually recover, but it is still difficult to alleviate the oversupply situation. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. - The monthly spread is bearish. As of March 5, the 5 - 9 monthly spread of manganese silicon was - 46 yuan/ton, continuing to oscillate at a low level [3]. - The spot market is neutral. Factory quotes are cautious, downstream transactions are a bit slow, and the steel procurement in March has been slow to start, with a wait - and - see attitude. The 6517 is quoted in the range of 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton, the 6014 is quoted at around 5450 yuan/ton, and the high - silicon silicon - manganese is quoted in the range of 6600 - 6800 yuan/ton. 6517 factories mainly engage in hedging, and retail transactions are average [3]. - Steel production is neutral. As of March 6, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises was 111200 tons, and the weekly production of the five major steel products increased to 797240 tons. The proportion of rebar in the five major steel products in Mysteel sample data increased slightly month - on - month [3]. - Inventory is bearish. As of March 5, the total of manganese silicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 249200 tons [3]. - Cost - profit is neutral. The manganese ore market remains firm, and the transaction center has gradually moved up. Comilog released its April offer at 5.25 US dollars/ton degree. Recently, the supply of South African manganese ore has been concentrated, and the market's sentiment of holding back supply and raising prices is prominent [3]. Ferrosilicon - The overall view is neutral. After a sharp rally this week, the price is oscillating at a high level. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are in a tight balance. The cost of semi - coke has decreased, but the increase in electricity cost makes the overall production cost relatively firm. The production of magnesium metal is at a high level. Due to the significant increase in the price of 72 ferrosilicon, the price difference between 75 and 72 ferrosilicon has narrowed significantly. Steel mills have started the March tender, and attention should be paid to the pricing. In the short term, the market price of ferrosilicon is stable with a slight upward trend. In February, the ferrosilicon warehouse receipts were concentrated for cancellation, and attention should be paid to the recovery of new warehouse receipts. For unilateral trading, be cautious about chasing long positions after the rapid rally of the futures price, and consider taking profits gradually [4]. - The monthly spread is bearish. As of March 5, the 5 - 9 monthly spread of ferrosilicon was - 50 yuan/ton, showing a slight weakening month - on - month [4]. - The spot market is neutral. The 72 is priced at 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, and the 75 is priced at 5800 - 6000 yuan/ton for cash natural lumps ex - factory. The price of 72 has increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton [4]. - Steel and magnesium metal demand is neutral. The total consumption of ferrosilicon by Mysteel sample steel mills is 17800 tons. The production of magnesium metal remains at a high level, and the demand for 75 ferrosilicon is better than that for 72 [4]. - Inventory is bullish. As of March 5, the total of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 39500 tons. After the concentrated cancellation of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts in February, attention should be paid to the recovery of subsequent warehouse receipts [4]. - Cost - profit is neutral. The price of semi - coke has decreased slightly, while the electricity cost has increased, making the overall production cost firm [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Manganese Ore Inventory - The total port inventory of manganese ore is 4.954 million tons, showing a significant month - on - month increase. Among them, the inventory at Tianjin Port has increased to 3.595 million tons, higher than the same period last year; the inventory at Qinzhou Port has increased significantly to 1.354 million tons, significantly higher than the same period last year [11]. - At Tianjin Port, the inventory of South African ore is 2.289 million tons, showing a significant month - on - month increase; the inventory of Gabon ore is 336000 tons, showing a significant month - on - month increase but still far lower than the same period last year; the inventory of Australian ore is 537000 tons, continuing to increase and significantly higher than the same period last year [16]. Manganese Ore Port Price - At Tianjin Port, the price of Gabon lumps is 43.8 yuan/ton degree, Australian lumps are 43 yuan/ton degree, and South African semi - carbonate is 38.7 yuan/ton degree. The manganese ore market remains firm, and the transaction center has gradually moved up. Recently, the supply of South African manganese ore has been concentrated, and the market's sentiment of holding back supply and raising prices is prominent. Comilog released its April offer at 5.25 US dollars/ton degree [19]. Manganese Silicon Production - As of March 6, the weekly production of silicon - manganese decreased to 195800 tons. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia increased slightly to 14820 tons/day; the daily average production in Ningxia remained flat at 6035 tons/day; the daily average production in Yunnan increased to 700 tons/day; the daily average production in Guizhou increased to 1830 tons/day; the daily average production in Guangxi decreased to 1685 tons/day [30]. Manganese Silicon Demand - As of March 6, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises was 111200 tons, and the weekly production of the five major steel products increased to 797240 tons. The proportion of rebar in the five major steel products in Mysteel sample data increased slightly month - on - month [35]. Manganese Silicon Price - The market price in Inner Mongolia is around 5850 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin, it is 5900 yuan/ton. A large steel group in Hebei had no silicon - manganese procurement plan in February due to recent maintenance and will resume normal procurement in March. In January, the factory purchased 17000 tons [43]. Chemical Coke Price - This week, the price of chemical coke remained stable. The ex - factory prices of 25 - 40mm chemical coke in Yinchuan, Ordos, and Alxa are 1190, 1140, and 1140 yuan/ton respectively. Hebei has a plan to lower the price of coke, and attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in the spot price [46]. Manganese Silicon Production Profit - The immediate profit of manganese silicon is low, and the point - to - point profit is in a loss [50]. Monthly Spread - As of March 6, the 5 - 9 monthly spread of manganese silicon was - 46 yuan/ton, continuing to oscillate at a low level [54]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The futures price is oscillating, and the basis has strengthened slightly. As of March 5, the total of manganese silicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 249200 tons [57]. Ferrosilicon Ferrosilicon Production - As of March 6, the weekly production was 96500 tons, showing a slight month - on - month decrease. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia was 4685 tons, in Qinghai was 1415 tons, in Ningxia was 3620 tons, and in Shaanxi was 2500 tons [70]. Ferrosilicon Demand - **Steel Mills**: The total consumption of ferrosilicon by Mysteel sample steel mills was 17800 tons, lower than the same period last year [75]. - **Magnesium Metal**: The export price of magnesium metal at Tianjin Port is 2470 US dollars/ton; the market price is 16750 yuan/ton, showing a slight month - on - month increase. The weekly production of magnesium metal is 20741 tons, at a high level in the same historical period. The market of magnesium ingots is running smoothly; the factory quotes of magnesium ingots remain unchanged at 16800 yuan/ton ex - factory including tax, and the actual transaction price is 16700 yuan. The market transactions are tepid, and the transactions maintain just - in - time procurement [79]. Ferrosilicon Export - As of March 5, the overseas FOB price of 75 ferrosilicon is 1135 US dollars/ton, and that of 72 ferrosilicon is 1080 US dollars/ton, showing a slight month - on - month increase. In December, the import volume of ferrosilicon decreased slightly month - on - month, while the export volume increased month - on - month [87]. Ferrosilicon Raw Materials - As of March 5, the prices of mainstream semi - coke small materials decreased slightly. The current prices are 705 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 805 yuan/ton in Ningxia, and 695 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The price of oxidized iron scale is 750 yuan/ton [96]. Ferrosilicon Production Profit - As of March 5, the point - to - point profit loss of ferrosilicon has narrowed significantly. The production profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Qinghai are - 70, - 1, - 125, and - 449 yuan/ton respectively [108]. Monthly Spread - As of March 5, the 5 - 9 monthly spread of ferrosilicon was - 50 yuan/ton, showing a slight weakening month - on - month [110]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The futures price is oscillating, and the basis of ferrosilicon fluctuates slightly. As of March 5, the total of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 39500 tons. After the concentrated cancellation of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts in February, attention should be paid to the recovery of subsequent warehouse receipts [114]. Balance Sheet Manganese Silicon - From July 2025 to June 2026, the total supply and demand of manganese silicon show different trends. There is an oversupply situation in most months, but the degree of oversupply varies. The production and consumption cumulative year - on - year growth rates also show different trends over time [116]. Ferrosilicon - From July 2025 to June 2026, the total supply and demand of ferrosilicon also show different trends. There are periods of oversupply and short supply. The production and consumption cumulative year - on - year growth rates also change over time [117].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - The latest prices and their daily and weekly changes of various grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions are presented, including Ningxia 72, Inner Mongolia 72, etc. [1] - Price trends of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions from 2022 - 2026 are shown, such as 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, etc. [2] Supply - Production data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are provided, including the output of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises in China (monthly and weekly) and the production of silicomanganese in China (weekly) [4][6] - Capacity utilization rates of 136 ferrosilicon production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi are presented [4] Demand - Data on the demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are given, such as the demand for silicomanganese in China (in ten thousand tons) and the procurement volume and price of FeSi75 - B by HeSteel Group [4][6][7] Inventory - Inventory data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are provided, including the inventory of 60 sample enterprises of ferrosilicon in different regions (weekly) and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises of silicomanganese in China (weekly) [5][7] - Information on the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is presented [5][7] Cost and Profit - Cost and profit data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are given, including the production cost and profit of ferrosilicon in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the profit of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, etc. [5][7]

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautious Sell**: Crude oil, LPG, ethylene glycol, methanol, natural gas, asphalt [1][2][4] - **Bearish Consolidation**: L, PP, glass, soda ash [1][4] - **Cautiously Bullish with Volatility**: PVC [1] - **Wide - Range Fluctuation**: PX/PTA [2] - **Cautious Chasing Upside**: Urea [2] 2. Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased, and oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing. There is still a large downward pressure due to oversupply and seasonal factors [7]. - **LPG**: It follows the decline in oil prices. Although there are some cost - side and inventory - side positives, the overall fundamentals are bearish [12]. - **L**: Petrochemical inventories have re - accumulated, and the market is in a bearish consolidation. Pay attention to the demand verification [17]. - **PP**: The market has given back geopolitical and macro premiums. The current fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand, and there is no prominent contradiction [21]. - **PVC**: Calcium carbide prices have risen, and short - term export orders support prices, but high social inventories limit the upside [25]. - **PTA**: The valuation has been repaired, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. Pay attention to buying opportunities on significant pullbacks [27]. - **MEG**: The low valuation has been repaired, but the supply - demand situation is weakening. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [30]. - **Methanol**: The main contract is at a high valuation level. The fundamentals are slightly loose, but there are short - term positives. Pay attention to buying on dips [35]. - **Urea**: The absolute valuation is not low, and short - term demand is strong, but downstream demand may weaken during the holiday season. Cautiously chase the upside [39]. - **LNG**: The impact of the cold wave has subsided, and prices have returned to fundamental pricing. The upside space is limited [43]. - **Asphalt**: It follows the decline in oil prices. Although there are some raw - material positives, there is a short - term correction risk [47]. - **Glass**: The fundamentals are in a weak supply - demand pattern, with high - level inventory slightly reducing. Be cautious about chasing the upside before further supply reduction [52]. - **Soda Ash**: The start - up rate has declined slightly, and the supply is under pressure. Be cautious about chasing the upside before further intensification of maintenance [56]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight, oil prices fell. WTI dropped 4.71%, Brent dropped 4.36%, and domestic SC dropped 2.11% [6]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased, and oil prices are back to fundamental pricing. Core, there is an oversupply in the off - season, and global crude oil inventories are accelerating accumulation [7]. Supply, OPEC+ will maintain its production policy in March, and US crude oil production is gradually increasing. Demand, India's crude oil imports in December increased. Inventory, as of January 23, US crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. In the short - term, it may rebound. Pay attention to geopolitical developments in the Middle East. SC focus range is [445 - 455] [9]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On February 2, the PG main contract closed at 4334 yuan/ton, a 2.73% decline [11]. - **Basic Logic**: It is mainly anchored to oil prices. The supply is stable, downstream chemical demand is weakening, and inventories are accumulating. As of February 2, the number of warehouse receipts was unchanged. As of January 30, the commodity volume increased, while the开工 rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil decreased. Refinery inventories increased, and port inventories decreased [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the price center is expected to decline. In the short - term, the uncertainty of oil prices has increased. PG focus range is [4150 - 4250] [13]. 3.3 L - **Market Review**: The L05 contract price decreased, and the basis and spreads changed [15]. - **Basic Logic**: Petrochemical inventories have re - accumulated, and the market has given back geopolitical and weather premiums. Short - term, industries can consider short - selling hedging opportunities. Recent device restarts are expected to increase production this week. The basis has fallen to a low level, and attention should be paid to future demand verification. L focus range is [6800 - 7000] [17]. 3.4 PP - **Market Review**: The PP05 contract price decreased, and the basis and spreads changed [19]. - **Basic Logic**: The market has given back geopolitical and macro premiums. The supply - side maintenance rate is high, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The current fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand, and PDH profit compression intensifies the maintenance expectation. Pay attention to future demand verification. PP focus range is [6600 - 6800] [21]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Review**: The V05 contract price decreased, and the basis and spreads changed [23]. - **Basic Logic**: Calcium carbide prices have risen, and short - term export order volume supports prices, but high social inventories limit the upside. The comprehensive chlorine - alkali gross profit is at a low level, but the cost support at the bottom has improved. There is a short - term export rush, but the long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken. V focus range is [5000 - 5200] [25]. 3.6 PTA - **Market Review**: The TA05 contract price decreased, and the basis and spreads changed [26]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation, TA05 is at a high level in the past three months, and the basis and processing fees have improved. Supply, domestic device changes are small, and the maintenance intensity is high. Demand, downstream demand is seasonally weakening. Inventory, there is a seasonal accumulation in January - February, but the pressure is not large. Cost, PX is in a weak - balance state. Overall, the fundamentals are expected to improve [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips for the 05 contract. TA05 focus range is [5050 - 5190] [27]. 3.7 MEG - **Market Review**: The EG05 contract price decreased, and the basis and spreads changed [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation, the low valuation has been repaired. Supply, domestic device load has increased, and overseas devices have slightly increased their load. Demand, downstream demand is seasonally weakening. Inventory, social inventory is slightly accumulating, and there is an accumulation pressure in January - February. Overall, it lacks upward drivers and fluctuates within a range. [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. EG05 focus range is [3710 - 3810] [30]. 3.8 Methanol - **Market Review**: The main contract is at a high valuation level, and the basis has changed [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply, domestic device start - up rate is high, while overseas devices have significantly reduced their load. Import volume is expected to be 110wt in January, and port inventories have slightly increased. Demand, downstream demand has weakened significantly. Cost support is weak and stable. Overall, the fundamentals are slightly loose, but there are short - term positives [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to buying on dips. MA05 focus range is [2220 - 2280] [35]. 3.9 Urea - **Market Review**: The UR05 contract price changed, and the basis and spreads changed [36]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation, the absolute valuation is not low, and the basis has changed. Supply, the start - up rate has continued to rise, and the daily output has returned to over 200,000 tons. Demand, short - term demand is strong, but downstream demand may weaken during the holiday season. Inventory is still at a relatively high level. Overall, there is an upside limit and a downside support [37]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously chase the upside. UR05 focus range is [1770 - 1800] [39]. 3.10 LNG - **Market Review**: On January 30, the NG main contract closed at 4.416 dollars/million British thermal units, a 13.87% increase [41]. - **Basic Logic**: Core, the impact of the cold wave has subsided, and prices have gradually declined. Cost - profit, domestic LNG retail profit is unchanged. Supply, domestic natural gas production has increased, and the number of US natural gas rigs has decreased. Demand, Japan's LNG imports have decreased. Inventory, US natural gas inventories have decreased [42]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the winter, demand supports prices, but the upside space is limited. NG focus range is [3.120 - 3.676] [43]. 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Review**: On February 2, the BU main contract closed at 3299 yuan/ton, a 3.65% decline [46]. - **Basic Logic**: Core, the export of Venezuelan crude oil has more buyers, but geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased, and oil prices have dropped. There is a short - term correction risk. Cost - profit, the comprehensive profit is unchanged. Supply, the total asphalt output in February has decreased. Demand, asphalt imports and exports increased in 2025. Inventory, social inventories have increased [47]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still room for compression. The supply - side uncertainty has increased. Pay attention to geopolitical risks. BU focus range is [3250 - 3350] [48]. 3.12 Glass - **Market Review**: The FG05 contract price is unchanged, and the basis and spreads have changed [50]. - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals are in a weak supply - demand pattern, with high - level inventory slightly reducing. Demand is in a seasonal off - season, and supply needs to be further reduced to digest inventory. Be cautious about chasing the upside before further supply reduction. FG focus range is [1050 - 1100] [52]. 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA05 contract price decreased, and the basis and spreads changed [54]. - **Basic Logic**: Some devices are planned to be maintained, and the start - up rate has declined. Real - estate demand is weak, and heavy - soda demand support is insufficient. New production capacity has been put into operation, and supply is under pressure. Be cautious about chasing the upside before further intensification of maintenance. SA focus range is [1180 - 1230] [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side shows that the domestic refineries' asphalt production is decreasing, which reduces supply pressure. The demand is currently below the historical average level. The cost side has the support of rising crude oil prices in the short - term. It is expected that the asphalt 2603 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3393 - 3455 in the short - term [8][9]. - The factors are mixed. The positives include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support and the reduction of supply pressure due to refinery production cuts. The negatives are the lack of demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward trend in demand with the strengthening expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In February 2026, the domestic refineries' asphalt production is 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of the sample is 27.325%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The national sample enterprises' shipment is 214,450 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.80%. The sample enterprises' production is 456,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.20%. The estimated maintenance volume of the sample enterprises' devices is 1.022 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%. Refineries have reduced production this week, and supply pressure may decrease next week [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 25.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 is 3.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 is 5.7161%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 14%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 18%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 128.13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 85.30%. The weekly delayed - coking profit of Shandong refineries is 16.1943 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 81.75%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [9]. - **Basis**: On January 30th, the Shandong spot price is 3,260 yuan/ton, and the 03 - contract basis is - 164 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 892,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. The refinery inventory is 602,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%. The port diluted - asphalt inventory is 840,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 90.91%. The social inventory continues to accumulate, the refinery inventory continues to decline, and the port inventory continues to accumulate [9]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the 03 - contract futures price closes above the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position decreases [9]. - **Expectation**: Refineries have reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is difficult to boost, and overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish. Inventory continues to decline. Crude oil strengthens, and cost support strengthens in the short - term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, and the asphalt 2603 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3393 - 3455 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price Overview**: The report provides the price, change, and change rate of different asphalt contracts (such as 12 - contract, 11 - contract, etc.), as well as the price, change, and change rate of asphalt in different regions (such as North China, South China, etc.), downstream demand开工率, asphalt coking profit, weekly shipment volume, weekly production, and inventory data [16]. - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026 [19][20]. - **Spread Analysis**: It includes the spread trends of the main contracts (1 - 6, 6 - 12), the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil, the crude - oil cracking spread, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [22][25][28][32]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional Market Price Trend**: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt prices in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026 [35][36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026 [37][38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026 [40][42]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt shipment volume from 2020 to 2026 [43][44]. - **Diluted - Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of domestic diluted - asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [46][47]. - **Production**: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2026 [49][50]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production**: It shows the historical trends of Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026 [52][54]. - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [55][57]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2026 [58][59]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2026 [61][62]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and refinery inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [64][65]. - **Social Inventory and Refinery Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and refinery inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026 [68][69]. - **Refinery Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It shows the historical trends of the refinery inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2026 [72][73]. - **Import and Export Situation**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2019 to 2026 [75][76][79]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It shows the historical trends of apparent asphalt consumption from 2019 to 2025 [84][85]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 [87][88]. - **New Local Special Bonds**: It shows the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025 [89]. - **Infrastructure Investment Completion**: It shows the year - on - year change trends of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 [89]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt - concrete paver sales volume, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales volume, and road - roller sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [91][92][94]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2026 [96][97]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: It shows the historical trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2026 [99][100]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation**: It shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt capacity utilization rate, shoe - material TPR capacity utilization rate, road - modified asphalt capacity utilization rate, and waterproofing - membrane capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2026 [102][103][104]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly asphalt production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, refinery inventory, and diluted - asphalt port inventory from October 2024 to January 2026 [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry - wide investment rating. However, for individual varieties, ratings such as "cautious short", "bullish rebound", "sideways with a bullish bias", etc. are given [1][2][4] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Short - term, the price is volatile and bullish due to high geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, but there is still downward pressure in the long - term as the supply - surplus pattern remains and the demand off - season arrives [1][7] - **LPG**: Cost - side factors drive a rebound, with geopolitical impacts on oil prices and Saudi's CP contract price increase [1] - **L**: The uptrend continues as the inventory of the upstream is at a relatively low level, but attention should be paid to geopolitical and cold wave changes [14][17] - **PP**: The uptrend continues before the Spring Festival, with high - level maintenance reducing upstream inventory, but the fundamental supply - demand is weak [18][21] - **PVC**: It is sideways with a bullish bias in the short - term due to strong export orders, but there is a weakening expectation in the long - term [22][25] - **PTA**: The fundamental expectation is positive, and it is recommended to buy on dips [26][28] - **MEG**: Supply - demand is loose, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [29][30] - **Methanol**: There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation, and it is recommended to buy on dips [32][34] - **Urea**: It rebounds in the short - term with cost support and strong supply - demand, but be cautious about chasing up as the downstream demand enters the off - season [37][38] - **LNG**: The impact of the cold wave is weakening, and the upside of gas prices is limited [41][43] - **Asphalt**: The valuation of the futures is high, and there may be a short - term correction [45][48] - **Glass**: The supply - demand is weak, and it is in a range - bound oscillation [50][53] - **Soda Ash**: The operation is bearish and sideways with a decline in the operating rate [54][57] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous Friday, international oil prices fluctuated within a range. WTI decreased by 0.32%, Brent decreased by 0.39%, and domestic SC increased by 3.40% [6] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term, geopolitical factors in the Middle East lead to an increase in geopolitical premium; in the long - term, the supply is in surplus during the off - season, and global crude oil inventories are accumulating rapidly [7] - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ maintained its production policy unchanged in the February 1st meeting and continued to suspend production increases in March. The geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East has increased. The impact of the cold wave in the US is decreasing, and US crude oil production is gradually rising. India's diesel exports to West Africa reached a record high in December, and its crude oil imports in December increased by 1.6% month - on - month [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. In the short - term, it is expected to rebound. Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The range for SC is [460 - 480] [9] LPG - **Market Performance**: On January 30th, the PG main contract closed at 4353 yuan/ton, a 0.97% increase. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4480 (+60) yuan/ton, 4428 (+15) yuan/ton, and 4840 (-10) yuan/ton respectively [11] - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly determined by the cost - side oil price. In the short - term, the oil price rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances, but is under pressure in the long - term. The supply is stable, and the downstream chemical demand is weak with inventory accumulation [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the price has room for further compression as the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand. In the short - term, the cost - side oil price is uncertain. The range for PG is [4300 - 4400] [13] L - **Market Performance**: The L05 contract price decreased by 0.5%. The L05 basis was - 174 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 55 yuan/ton [15][16] - **Basic Logic**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina has dropped to a low level in the same period. The uptrend continues, but attention should be paid to geopolitical and cold wave changes. The production is expected to increase this week, and the basis has dropped to a low level in the same period [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The range for L is [7000 - 7200] [17] PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 contract price decreased by 0.7%. The PP05 basis was - 108 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 33 yuan/ton [19][20] - **Basic Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the market is mainly trading on expectations. High - level maintenance has significantly reduced upstream inventory, and the uptrend continues. The current supply - demand is weak, and the parking ratio is 21%, reducing supply pressure [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The range for PP is [6800 - 7000] [21] PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract price increased by 3.4%. The V05 basis was - 283 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 122 yuan/ton [23][24] - **Basic Logic**: Export orders are strong, and enterprise inventory has dropped to a low level in the same period. In the short - term, it is sideways with a bullish bias. The spot price of liquid caustic soda has been falling, and the cost support of marginal devices has improved. However, there is a weakening expectation in the long - term [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The range for PVC is [5000 - 5200] [25] PTA - **Market Performance**: As of January 30th, TA05 closed at 5270, at the 90.5% quantile level in the past three months. The basis was 20 (+102) yuan/ton, and the TA5 - 9 spread was - 12 (+6) yuan/ton [28] - **Basic Logic**: The PTA device is under planned maintenance with a relatively high intensity. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and there is seasonal inventory accumulation in January and February. However, the fundamental expectation is positive [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy the 05 contract on dips. The range for TA05 is [5220 - 5420] [28] MEG - **Market Performance**: The EG05 contract price decreased by 37 yuan/ton. The basis was - 99 (+21) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 105 (-8) yuan/ton [29] - **Basic Logic**: The low - valuation has been repaired. Domestic production capacity utilization has increased, and overseas devices have slightly increased their loads. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and port inventory is accumulating [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. The range for EG05 is [3860 - 3980] [31] Methanol - **Market Performance**: The methanol main contract is at a high valuation in the past three months. The comprehensive profit is - 235 yuan/ton, and the East China basis is - 60 (+20) [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic methanol device operating rates are high, while overseas devices have significantly reduced their loads. Demand has weakened significantly. Although the fundamentals are relatively loose, geopolitical conflicts and cold weather in North America have led to a short - term increase in overseas natural gas costs, which is bullish [34] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions. The range for MA05 is [2280 - 2350] [36] Urea - **Market Performance**: The urea main contract closed at 1788 (+12) yuan/ton, at the 73.3% quantile level in the past year. The Shandong small - particle basis was - 28 (-2) yuan/ton, and the UR5 - 9 spread was 25 yuan/ton [39] - **Basic Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The supply is under pressure as the production of previously maintained devices has resumed. Demand is strong in the short - term, but the downstream demand is entering the off - season [38][39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about chasing up. The range for UR05 is [1780 - 1810] [40] LNG - **Market Performance**: On January 29th, the NG main contract closed at 3.878 US dollars/million British thermal units, a 4.16% increase [42] - **Basic Logic**: The impact of the cold wave in the US on gas prices has weakened, and the upside of gas prices is limited. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is in the peak season [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The range for NG is [3.556 - 4.050] [44] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On January 30th, the BU main contract closed at 3424 yuan/ton, a 1.55% decrease. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China increased [47] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of asphalt raw materials has increased, and the oil price has rebounded due to geopolitical factors, but the basis is weak, and there is a risk of a short - term correction [48] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to risks due to geopolitical uncertainties. The range for BU is [3400 - 3500] [49] Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 contract price decreased by 2.9%. The FG05 basis was - 36 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 112 yuan/ton [51][52] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory of enterprises has slightly decreased at a high level. The futures price is oscillating at a low level. Attention should be paid to the reduction in supply [53] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about chasing up. The range for FG is [1050 - 1100] [53] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract price decreased by 1.6%. The SA05 basis was - 34 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 62 yuan/ton [55][56] - **Basic Logic**: Some devices are planned for maintenance, and the operating rate has decreased. The demand for heavy soda ash is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [57] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about chasing up. The range for SA is [1200 - 1250] [57]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, it is recommended to take profit on the heavy oil crack spread and go long on crude oil at dips within the shale oil break - even cost range [3] - For methanol, considering its low current valuation and improved future outlook, there is limited downside. With geopolitical expectations from Iran, it is feasible to go long at dips [4] - For urea, due to open import windows and expected start - up recovery at the end of January, it is advisable to short on rallies [7] - For rubber, the chemical sector is short - term strong. Rubber has weak seasonality, so beware of RU price drops. Adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term on the market, and go short if RU2605 breaks below 16000. Partially build a position for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13] - For PVC, in the context of strong domestic supply and weak demand, with poor fundamentals, short - term factors support it, but in the medium - term, short on rallies is the main strategy [16] - For pure benzene and styrene, as styrene non - integrated profits have been significantly repaired, it is time to gradually take profit [19] - For polyethylene, with OPEC+ plans and inventory changes, although PE valuation has room to decline, there is support for the price. In the seasonal off - season, the overall demand is weak [22] - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure, wait for the supply - surplus pattern to change in the first quarter of next year. Go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at dips [25] - For PX, it is expected to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium - term, there are opportunities to go long following crude oil at dips [28] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short - term, but there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Look for opportunities to go long at dips [31] - For ethylene glycol, the industry is facing high inventory and high - load pressure. Without further domestic production cuts, the valuation is expected to be compressed [34] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 16.80 yuan/barrel, or 3.69%, to 472.50 yuan/barrel; related refined oil futures also had significant increases. US EIA weekly data showed changes in crude oil and refined product inventories, such as a 2.29 - million - barrel draw in commercial crude oil inventories to 423.75 million barrels [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Take profit on the heavy oil crack spread and go long on crude oil at dips within the shale oil break - even cost range [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different regions had different changes, with the main futures contract rising 29.00 yuan/ton to 2352 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changing by 17 yuan [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Given its low current valuation and improved future outlook, with geopolitical expectations from Iran, it is feasible to go long at dips [4] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot price changes varied, with the overall basis at - 67 yuan/ton, and the main futures contract rising 18 yuan/ton to 1817 yuan/ton [6] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to open import windows and expected start - up recovery at the end of January, short on rallies [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: The chemical sector showed a volatile rebound. There were different views on natural rubber from bulls and bears. As of January 22, 2026, tire enterprise operating rates and rubber inventories were reported. Spot prices of some rubber products also changed [10][11][12] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The chemical sector is short - term strong. Rubber has weak seasonality, so beware of RU price drops. Adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term on the market, and go short if RU2605 breaks below 16000. Partially build a position for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 18 yuan to 4895 yuan, with changes in spot prices, basis, 5 - 9 spread, etc. Cost - end prices and production and demand - end data also changed, such as a decline in overall production rate and an increase in social inventory [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the context of strong domestic supply and weak demand, with poor fundamentals, short - term factors support it, but in the medium - term, short on rallies is the main strategy [16] Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: There were changes in the prices and spreads of pure benzene and styrene, as well as changes in upstream and downstream operating rates and port inventories. For example, the upstream operating rate of pure benzene decreased by 1.23% to 69.63%, and the port inventory of styrene increased by 0.71 million tons to 10.06 million tons [18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: As styrene non - integrated profits have been significantly repaired, it is time to gradually take profit [19] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polyethylene rose 82 yuan/ton to 7049 yuan/ton, with changes in spot prices, basis, upstream operating rates, and inventory. The upstream operating rate increased by 1.23% to 81.56%, and production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 million tons [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With OPEC+ plans and inventory changes, although PE valuation has room to decline, there is support for the price. In the seasonal off - season, the overall demand is weak [22] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polypropylene rose 92 yuan/ton to 6870 yuan/ton, with changes in spot prices, basis, upstream operating rates, and inventory. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly by 0.01% to 76.61%, and various inventories decreased [23] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the context of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure, wait for the supply - surplus pattern to change in the first quarter of next year. Go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at dips [25] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 12 yuan to 7380 yuan, with changes in CFR price, basis, 3 - 5 spread, etc. PX and PTA operating rates and inventory data were also reported. For example, China's PX operating rate increased by 0.3% to 89.2% [27] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium - term, there are opportunities to go long following crude oil at dips [28] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 38 yuan to 5332 yuan, with changes in spot prices, basis, 5 - 9 spread, etc. PTA and downstream operating rates and inventory data were reported. The downstream operating rate decreased by 1.7% to 84.7% [30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short - term, but there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Look for opportunities to go long at dips [31] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 13 yuan to 3957 yuan, with changes in spot prices, basis, 5 - 9 spread, etc. Supply - and demand - end operating rates and inventory data were reported. The supply - end operating rate increased by 1.4% to 74.4%, and the port inventory increased by 6.3 million tons [33] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry is facing high inventory and high - load pressure. Without further domestic production cuts, the valuation is expected to be compressed [34]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices are weakly stable. The night - session prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil closed at 3123 yuan and 3287 yuan respectively. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar remains at 200 yuan. Due to raw material prices being weaker than steel prices, the profitability of steel mills has increased. Production is stable at a low level, inventory is accumulating, and apparent demand is decreasing. The supply - demand of the industry is weak. The seasonal decline in rebar demand is obvious, the supply - demand gap of rebar is widening, and inventory is accumulating significantly. The demand for hot - rolled coil has not declined much, and the inventory is still being depleted. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate within a range. The 5 - month contract of rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3100 - 3200 yuan, and hot - rolled coil is expected to fluctuate between 3250 - 3350 yuan. The long - position on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar can be continued to hold [1] Iron Ore Industry - The main iron ore contract oscillated weakly yesterday. The ore price is still under pressure. Although Vale's production suspension event has limited impact on supply, the supply side has a slightly increasing global shipment volume, with a marginal decline in the shipment center but still at a relatively high level compared to historical periods. The demand side is expected to keep the molten iron production stable, and the seasonal decline in the port clearance volume indicates that the resumption of molten iron production before the festival is restricted. Steel exports have weakened significantly. Port inventory continues to accumulate but at a slower pace, and steel mill inventory growth has also slowed down. Iron ore is facing a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is under pressure. It can be short - sold around 800 yuan. Be vigilant against macro - level fluctuations [3] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures showed a weakly declining trend yesterday. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has landed and stabilized. The supply side has slightly reduced production due to pressure on coking profits. The demand side has seen a slight recovery in molten iron production after the New Year's Day. The inventory in ports and steel mills has increased, while that in coking plants has decreased. The overall inventory has increased slightly. The mainstream coking enterprises have initiated a price increase, but it has not been implemented, and the post - festival market is expected to be loose. It should be regarded as oscillating and bearish, with the range of 1600 - 1750 yuan. The arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke. Coking coal futures also showed a weakly declining trend. The supply side has seen an increase in daily production and better shipments but insufficient inventory reduction. The demand side has limited downstream replenishment demand before the Spring Festival. The inventory in mines, coking enterprises, and steel mills has increased, while that in coal - washing plants, ports, and border ports has decreased. The overall inventory has increased slightly. It should be regarded as oscillating and bearish, with the range of 1000 - 1150 yuan. The arbitrage strategy is also to go long on coking coal and short on coke [5] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - The main ferrosilicon contract oscillated weakly yesterday, with a continuous decline in open interest. The supply is stable at a low level, and most regions' production is flat compared to last week. The steel - making demand is expected to keep molten iron production stable before the festival, and the non - steel demand has weakened. The cost in Inner Mongolia may increase due to the expected electricity price adjustment. The overall situation is relatively healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 5500 - 5900 yuan. The main ferromanganese contract also oscillated weakly, with a gradual increase in open interest. The supply has decreased, and the production is at a historically low level. The demand is also weak, and the high inventory still suppresses the price. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 5800 - 6000 yuan [6] Summary of Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices have generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3280 yuan to 3260 yuan, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coil decreased by 16 yuan [1] Cost and Profit - The price of steel billet decreased by 20 yuan to 2930 yuan, and the profit of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased by 10 yuan to 27 yuan [1] Production - The daily average molten iron production was 228.1 tons, almost unchanged. The production of rebar increased by 9.3 tons to 199.6 tons, with a 4.9% increase, and the production of hot - rolled coil decreased by 2.9 tons to 305.4 tons, with a 1.0% decrease [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 10.1 tons to 1257.1 tons, with a 0.8% increase. The rebar inventory increased by 14.0 tons to 452.1 tons, with a 3.2% increase, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 4.6 tons to 357.8 tons, with a 1.3% decrease [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume decreased by 1.0 tons to 6.6 tons, with a 12.8% decrease. The apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 16.6 tons to 809.5 tons, with a 2.0% decrease [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of most iron ore varieties increased slightly, and the basis of the 05 - contract for some varieties decreased. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1.5 yuan to - 31.0 yuan, with a 5.1% decrease [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 129.7 tons to 2530.0 tons, with a 4.9% decrease, and the global shipment volume increased by 48.4 tons to 2978.3 tons, with a 1.7% increase [3] Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 228.1 tons, almost unchanged. The 45 - port daily average clearance volume decreased by 9.2 tons to 310.7 tons, with a 2.9% decrease [3] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 211.4 tons to 16766.53 tons, with a 1.3% increase, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 126.6 tons to 9388.8 tons, with a 1.4% increase [3] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - Coke and coking coal futures and spot prices generally decreased. For example, the 05 - contract price of coke decreased by 51 yuan to 1668 yuan, and the 05 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 43 yuan to 1117 yuan [5] Supply - The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 tons to 63.3 tons, with a 0.2% decrease, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2 tons to 46.9 tons, with a 0.4% increase. The raw coal production of sample mines decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, with a 0.3% decrease [5] Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 228.1 tons, almost unchanged. The demand for coke mainly comes from the molten iron production [5] Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 18.9 tons to 939.2 tons, with a 2.1% increase. The coking coal inventory in mines, coking enterprises, and steel mills increased, while that in coal - washing plants, ports, and border ports decreased [5] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Price and Spread - The main contract prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly. The SF - SM main spread decreased by 14 yuan to - 214 yuan [6] Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased slightly, and the production profit decreased. The manganese ore prices in Tianjin Port were relatively stable [6] Supply - The production of ferrosilicon was stable at a low level, and the production of ferromanganese decreased slightly. The manganese ore shipment volume increased by 5.2 tons to 77.7 tons, with a 7.2% increase [6] Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in steel - making is expected to keep molten iron production stable before the festival. The non - steel demand for ferrosilicon has weakened [6] Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises increased by 0.3 tons to 6.7 tons, with a 5.4% increase, and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises was stable [6]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term market fundamentals of cotton have limited drivers, and prices fluctuate with market sentiment, likely to continue the range - bound trend. The lower space is relatively limited, and it is mainly regarded as a short - term adjustment [1] - In the context of the production peak of the northern hemisphere's main producing countries and the expected increase in production, the short - term fundamentals of the international sugar market have limited changes. Without other factors, it is expected to continue to oscillate in the range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound [1] - After another round of decline, the market is gradually approaching the crushing cost of southern sugarcane mills. The cost of out - of - quota imported sugar currently has little difference from the futures price, and the downward space is gradually narrowing [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - Xinjiang cotton inventory is decreasing, processing enterprises are actively selling, and the spot basis is firm. Downstream cotton yarn varieties continue to show differentiation, with stable orders for medium - and high - count yarns and weak operation of low - count yarns [1] - Cotton enterprises have relatively abundant inventory and actively quote for promotion. Spinning enterprises increase point - price purchases when prices fall and reduce transactions when prices rise. The pre - Spring Festival restocking is in the final stage, and local transactions have slightly increased [1] Sugar - Brazil exported 1.7376 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of January 2026, with a daily average export volume of 108,600 tons. In January 2025, Brazil's sugar export volume was 2.0622 million tons, with a daily average export volume of 93,700 tons [1] - The estimated cost of processing and paying taxes for in - quota Brazilian sugar is 3,997 yuan per ton, and that for out - of - quota Brazilian sugar is 5,077 yuan per ton. Compared with the spot price of Rizhao white sugar, the estimated profit for in - quota Brazilian sugar is 1,443 yuan per ton, and that for out - of - quota Brazilian sugar is 363 yuan per ton [2]