Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - The latest prices and their daily and weekly changes of various grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions are presented, including Ningxia 72, Inner Mongolia 72, etc. [1] - Price trends of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions from 2022 - 2026 are shown, such as 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, etc. [2] Supply - Production data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are provided, including the output of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises in China (monthly and weekly) and the production of silicomanganese in China (weekly) [4][6] - Capacity utilization rates of 136 ferrosilicon production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi are presented [4] Demand - Data on the demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are given, such as the demand for silicomanganese in China (in ten thousand tons) and the procurement volume and price of FeSi75 - B by HeSteel Group [4][6][7] Inventory - Inventory data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are provided, including the inventory of 60 sample enterprises of ferrosilicon in different regions (weekly) and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises of silicomanganese in China (weekly) [5][7] - Information on the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is presented [5][7] Cost and Profit - Cost and profit data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are given, including the production cost and profit of ferrosilicon in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the profit of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, etc. [5][7]

中辉能化观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中东地缘缓和，油价回落，短期仍有较强不确定性。地缘：中东地缘拉扯， | | 原油 | 谨慎看空 | 美伊谈判仍有较大不确定性，油价波动加剧，短期防风险为主；核心驱动： | | ★ | | 供给过剩格局仍未扭转，需求淡季到来，油价仍有下行压力；关注变量： | | | | 美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 中东地缘缓和，成本端油价大幅回落，液化气跟随油价回落。成本端油价 | | LPG | | 短期受地缘扰动反弹走强，沙特上调 2 月 CP 合同价，成本端利好；供需 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 方面，液化气商品量出现下降，PDH 开工率维持在 70%上方，下游化工 | | | | 需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | L | | 两油石化库存重新累库，寒潮影响阶段性回落，盘面回吐地缘和天气溢价， | | ★ | 空头盘整 | 短期产业可关注逢高套保机会。近期装置陆续回归，预计本周产量环比增 | | | | 加，基差跌至同期低位，关注后市需求验证情况。 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side shows that the domestic refineries' asphalt production is decreasing, which reduces supply pressure. The demand is currently below the historical average level. The cost side has the support of rising crude oil prices in the short - term. It is expected that the asphalt 2603 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3393 - 3455 in the short - term [8][9]. - The factors are mixed. The positives include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support and the reduction of supply pressure due to refinery production cuts. The negatives are the lack of demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward trend in demand with the strengthening expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In February 2026, the domestic refineries' asphalt production is 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of the sample is 27.325%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The national sample enterprises' shipment is 214,450 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.80%. The sample enterprises' production is 456,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.20%. The estimated maintenance volume of the sample enterprises' devices is 1.022 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%. Refineries have reduced production this week, and supply pressure may decrease next week [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 25.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 is 3.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 is 5.7161%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 14%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 18%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 128.13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 85.30%. The weekly delayed - coking profit of Shandong refineries is 16.1943 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 81.75%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [9]. - **Basis**: On January 30th, the Shandong spot price is 3,260 yuan/ton, and the 03 - contract basis is - 164 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 892,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. The refinery inventory is 602,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%. The port diluted - asphalt inventory is 840,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 90.91%. The social inventory continues to accumulate, the refinery inventory continues to decline, and the port inventory continues to accumulate [9]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the 03 - contract futures price closes above the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position decreases [9]. - **Expectation**: Refineries have reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is difficult to boost, and overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish. Inventory continues to decline. Crude oil strengthens, and cost support strengthens in the short - term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, and the asphalt 2603 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3393 - 3455 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price Overview**: The report provides the price, change, and change rate of different asphalt contracts (such as 12 - contract, 11 - contract, etc.), as well as the price, change, and change rate of asphalt in different regions (such as North China, South China, etc.), downstream demand开工率, asphalt coking profit, weekly shipment volume, weekly production, and inventory data [16]. - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026 [19][20]. - **Spread Analysis**: It includes the spread trends of the main contracts (1 - 6, 6 - 12), the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil, the crude - oil cracking spread, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [22][25][28][32]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional Market Price Trend**: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt prices in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026 [35][36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026 [37][38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026 [40][42]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt shipment volume from 2020 to 2026 [43][44]. - **Diluted - Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of domestic diluted - asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [46][47]. - **Production**: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2026 [49][50]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production**: It shows the historical trends of Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026 [52][54]. - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [55][57]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2026 [58][59]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2026 [61][62]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and refinery inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [64][65]. - **Social Inventory and Refinery Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and refinery inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026 [68][69]. - **Refinery Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It shows the historical trends of the refinery inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2026 [72][73]. - **Import and Export Situation**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2019 to 2026 [75][76][79]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It shows the historical trends of apparent asphalt consumption from 2019 to 2025 [84][85]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 [87][88]. - **New Local Special Bonds**: It shows the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025 [89]. - **Infrastructure Investment Completion**: It shows the year - on - year change trends of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 [89]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt - concrete paver sales volume, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales volume, and road - roller sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [91][92][94]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2026 [96][97]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: It shows the historical trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2026 [99][100]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation**: It shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt capacity utilization rate, shoe - material TPR capacity utilization rate, road - modified asphalt capacity utilization rate, and waterproofing - membrane capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2026 [102][103][104]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly asphalt production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, refinery inventory, and diluted - asphalt port inventory from October 2024 to January 2026 [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry - wide investment rating. However, for individual varieties, ratings such as "cautious short", "bullish rebound", "sideways with a bullish bias", etc. are given [1][2][4] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Short - term, the price is volatile and bullish due to high geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, but there is still downward pressure in the long - term as the supply - surplus pattern remains and the demand off - season arrives [1][7] - **LPG**: Cost - side factors drive a rebound, with geopolitical impacts on oil prices and Saudi's CP contract price increase [1] - **L**: The uptrend continues as the inventory of the upstream is at a relatively low level, but attention should be paid to geopolitical and cold wave changes [14][17] - **PP**: The uptrend continues before the Spring Festival, with high - level maintenance reducing upstream inventory, but the fundamental supply - demand is weak [18][21] - **PVC**: It is sideways with a bullish bias in the short - term due to strong export orders, but there is a weakening expectation in the long - term [22][25] - **PTA**: The fundamental expectation is positive, and it is recommended to buy on dips [26][28] - **MEG**: Supply - demand is loose, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [29][30] - **Methanol**: There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation, and it is recommended to buy on dips [32][34] - **Urea**: It rebounds in the short - term with cost support and strong supply - demand, but be cautious about chasing up as the downstream demand enters the off - season [37][38] - **LNG**: The impact of the cold wave is weakening, and the upside of gas prices is limited [41][43] - **Asphalt**: The valuation of the futures is high, and there may be a short - term correction [45][48] - **Glass**: The supply - demand is weak, and it is in a range - bound oscillation [50][53] - **Soda Ash**: The operation is bearish and sideways with a decline in the operating rate [54][57] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous Friday, international oil prices fluctuated within a range. WTI decreased by 0.32%, Brent decreased by 0.39%, and domestic SC increased by 3.40% [6] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term, geopolitical factors in the Middle East lead to an increase in geopolitical premium; in the long - term, the supply is in surplus during the off - season, and global crude oil inventories are accumulating rapidly [7] - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ maintained its production policy unchanged in the February 1st meeting and continued to suspend production increases in March. The geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East has increased. The impact of the cold wave in the US is decreasing, and US crude oil production is gradually rising. India's diesel exports to West Africa reached a record high in December, and its crude oil imports in December increased by 1.6% month - on - month [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. In the short - term, it is expected to rebound. Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The range for SC is [460 - 480] [9] LPG - **Market Performance**: On January 30th, the PG main contract closed at 4353 yuan/ton, a 0.97% increase. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4480 (+60) yuan/ton, 4428 (+15) yuan/ton, and 4840 (-10) yuan/ton respectively [11] - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly determined by the cost - side oil price. In the short - term, the oil price rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances, but is under pressure in the long - term. The supply is stable, and the downstream chemical demand is weak with inventory accumulation [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the price has room for further compression as the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand. In the short - term, the cost - side oil price is uncertain. The range for PG is [4300 - 4400] [13] L - **Market Performance**: The L05 contract price decreased by 0.5%. The L05 basis was - 174 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 55 yuan/ton [15][16] - **Basic Logic**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina has dropped to a low level in the same period. The uptrend continues, but attention should be paid to geopolitical and cold wave changes. The production is expected to increase this week, and the basis has dropped to a low level in the same period [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The range for L is [7000 - 7200] [17] PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 contract price decreased by 0.7%. The PP05 basis was - 108 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 33 yuan/ton [19][20] - **Basic Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the market is mainly trading on expectations. High - level maintenance has significantly reduced upstream inventory, and the uptrend continues. The current supply - demand is weak, and the parking ratio is 21%, reducing supply pressure [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The range for PP is [6800 - 7000] [21] PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract price increased by 3.4%. The V05 basis was - 283 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 122 yuan/ton [23][24] - **Basic Logic**: Export orders are strong, and enterprise inventory has dropped to a low level in the same period. In the short - term, it is sideways with a bullish bias. The spot price of liquid caustic soda has been falling, and the cost support of marginal devices has improved. However, there is a weakening expectation in the long - term [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The range for PVC is [5000 - 5200] [25] PTA - **Market Performance**: As of January 30th, TA05 closed at 5270, at the 90.5% quantile level in the past three months. The basis was 20 (+102) yuan/ton, and the TA5 - 9 spread was - 12 (+6) yuan/ton [28] - **Basic Logic**: The PTA device is under planned maintenance with a relatively high intensity. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and there is seasonal inventory accumulation in January and February. However, the fundamental expectation is positive [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy the 05 contract on dips. The range for TA05 is [5220 - 5420] [28] MEG - **Market Performance**: The EG05 contract price decreased by 37 yuan/ton. The basis was - 99 (+21) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 105 (-8) yuan/ton [29] - **Basic Logic**: The low - valuation has been repaired. Domestic production capacity utilization has increased, and overseas devices have slightly increased their loads. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and port inventory is accumulating [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. The range for EG05 is [3860 - 3980] [31] Methanol - **Market Performance**: The methanol main contract is at a high valuation in the past three months. The comprehensive profit is - 235 yuan/ton, and the East China basis is - 60 (+20) [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic methanol device operating rates are high, while overseas devices have significantly reduced their loads. Demand has weakened significantly. Although the fundamentals are relatively loose, geopolitical conflicts and cold weather in North America have led to a short - term increase in overseas natural gas costs, which is bullish [34] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions. The range for MA05 is [2280 - 2350] [36] Urea - **Market Performance**: The urea main contract closed at 1788 (+12) yuan/ton, at the 73.3% quantile level in the past year. The Shandong small - particle basis was - 28 (-2) yuan/ton, and the UR5 - 9 spread was 25 yuan/ton [39] - **Basic Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The supply is under pressure as the production of previously maintained devices has resumed. Demand is strong in the short - term, but the downstream demand is entering the off - season [38][39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about chasing up. The range for UR05 is [1780 - 1810] [40] LNG - **Market Performance**: On January 29th, the NG main contract closed at 3.878 US dollars/million British thermal units, a 4.16% increase [42] - **Basic Logic**: The impact of the cold wave in the US on gas prices has weakened, and the upside of gas prices is limited. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is in the peak season [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The range for NG is [3.556 - 4.050] [44] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On January 30th, the BU main contract closed at 3424 yuan/ton, a 1.55% decrease. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China increased [47] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of asphalt raw materials has increased, and the oil price has rebounded due to geopolitical factors, but the basis is weak, and there is a risk of a short - term correction [48] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to risks due to geopolitical uncertainties. The range for BU is [3400 - 3500] [49] Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 contract price decreased by 2.9%. The FG05 basis was - 36 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 112 yuan/ton [51][52] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory of enterprises has slightly decreased at a high level. The futures price is oscillating at a low level. Attention should be paid to the reduction in supply [53] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about chasing up. The range for FG is [1050 - 1100] [53] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract price decreased by 1.6%. The SA05 basis was - 34 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 62 yuan/ton [55][56] - **Basic Logic**: Some devices are planned for maintenance, and the operating rate has decreased. The demand for heavy soda ash is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [57] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about chasing up. The range for SA is [1200 - 1250] [57]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, it is recommended to take profit on the heavy oil crack spread and go long on crude oil at dips within the shale oil break - even cost range [3] - For methanol, considering its low current valuation and improved future outlook, there is limited downside. With geopolitical expectations from Iran, it is feasible to go long at dips [4] - For urea, due to open import windows and expected start - up recovery at the end of January, it is advisable to short on rallies [7] - For rubber, the chemical sector is short - term strong. Rubber has weak seasonality, so beware of RU price drops. Adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term on the market, and go short if RU2605 breaks below 16000. Partially build a position for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13] - For PVC, in the context of strong domestic supply and weak demand, with poor fundamentals, short - term factors support it, but in the medium - term, short on rallies is the main strategy [16] - For pure benzene and styrene, as styrene non - integrated profits have been significantly repaired, it is time to gradually take profit [19] - For polyethylene, with OPEC+ plans and inventory changes, although PE valuation has room to decline, there is support for the price. In the seasonal off - season, the overall demand is weak [22] - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure, wait for the supply - surplus pattern to change in the first quarter of next year. Go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at dips [25] - For PX, it is expected to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium - term, there are opportunities to go long following crude oil at dips [28] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short - term, but there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Look for opportunities to go long at dips [31] - For ethylene glycol, the industry is facing high inventory and high - load pressure. Without further domestic production cuts, the valuation is expected to be compressed [34] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 16.80 yuan/barrel, or 3.69%, to 472.50 yuan/barrel; related refined oil futures also had significant increases. US EIA weekly data showed changes in crude oil and refined product inventories, such as a 2.29 - million - barrel draw in commercial crude oil inventories to 423.75 million barrels [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Take profit on the heavy oil crack spread and go long on crude oil at dips within the shale oil break - even cost range [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different regions had different changes, with the main futures contract rising 29.00 yuan/ton to 2352 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changing by 17 yuan [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Given its low current valuation and improved future outlook, with geopolitical expectations from Iran, it is feasible to go long at dips [4] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot price changes varied, with the overall basis at - 67 yuan/ton, and the main futures contract rising 18 yuan/ton to 1817 yuan/ton [6] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to open import windows and expected start - up recovery at the end of January, short on rallies [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: The chemical sector showed a volatile rebound. There were different views on natural rubber from bulls and bears. As of January 22, 2026, tire enterprise operating rates and rubber inventories were reported. Spot prices of some rubber products also changed [10][11][12] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The chemical sector is short - term strong. Rubber has weak seasonality, so beware of RU price drops. Adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term on the market, and go short if RU2605 breaks below 16000. Partially build a position for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 18 yuan to 4895 yuan, with changes in spot prices, basis, 5 - 9 spread, etc. Cost - end prices and production and demand - end data also changed, such as a decline in overall production rate and an increase in social inventory [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the context of strong domestic supply and weak demand, with poor fundamentals, short - term factors support it, but in the medium - term, short on rallies is the main strategy [16] Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: There were changes in the prices and spreads of pure benzene and styrene, as well as changes in upstream and downstream operating rates and port inventories. For example, the upstream operating rate of pure benzene decreased by 1.23% to 69.63%, and the port inventory of styrene increased by 0.71 million tons to 10.06 million tons [18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: As styrene non - integrated profits have been significantly repaired, it is time to gradually take profit [19] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polyethylene rose 82 yuan/ton to 7049 yuan/ton, with changes in spot prices, basis, upstream operating rates, and inventory. The upstream operating rate increased by 1.23% to 81.56%, and production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 million tons [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With OPEC+ plans and inventory changes, although PE valuation has room to decline, there is support for the price. In the seasonal off - season, the overall demand is weak [22] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polypropylene rose 92 yuan/ton to 6870 yuan/ton, with changes in spot prices, basis, upstream operating rates, and inventory. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly by 0.01% to 76.61%, and various inventories decreased [23] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the context of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure, wait for the supply - surplus pattern to change in the first quarter of next year. Go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at dips [25] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 12 yuan to 7380 yuan, with changes in CFR price, basis, 3 - 5 spread, etc. PX and PTA operating rates and inventory data were also reported. For example, China's PX operating rate increased by 0.3% to 89.2% [27] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium - term, there are opportunities to go long following crude oil at dips [28] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 38 yuan to 5332 yuan, with changes in spot prices, basis, 5 - 9 spread, etc. PTA and downstream operating rates and inventory data were reported. The downstream operating rate decreased by 1.7% to 84.7% [30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short - term, but there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Look for opportunities to go long at dips [31] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 13 yuan to 3957 yuan, with changes in spot prices, basis, 5 - 9 spread, etc. Supply - and demand - end operating rates and inventory data were reported. The supply - end operating rate increased by 1.4% to 74.4%, and the port inventory increased by 6.3 million tons [33] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry is facing high inventory and high - load pressure. Without further domestic production cuts, the valuation is expected to be compressed [34]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices are weakly stable. The night - session prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil closed at 3123 yuan and 3287 yuan respectively. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar remains at 200 yuan. Due to raw material prices being weaker than steel prices, the profitability of steel mills has increased. Production is stable at a low level, inventory is accumulating, and apparent demand is decreasing. The supply - demand of the industry is weak. The seasonal decline in rebar demand is obvious, the supply - demand gap of rebar is widening, and inventory is accumulating significantly. The demand for hot - rolled coil has not declined much, and the inventory is still being depleted. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate within a range. The 5 - month contract of rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3100 - 3200 yuan, and hot - rolled coil is expected to fluctuate between 3250 - 3350 yuan. The long - position on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar can be continued to hold [1] Iron Ore Industry - The main iron ore contract oscillated weakly yesterday. The ore price is still under pressure. Although Vale's production suspension event has limited impact on supply, the supply side has a slightly increasing global shipment volume, with a marginal decline in the shipment center but still at a relatively high level compared to historical periods. The demand side is expected to keep the molten iron production stable, and the seasonal decline in the port clearance volume indicates that the resumption of molten iron production before the festival is restricted. Steel exports have weakened significantly. Port inventory continues to accumulate but at a slower pace, and steel mill inventory growth has also slowed down. Iron ore is facing a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is under pressure. It can be short - sold around 800 yuan. Be vigilant against macro - level fluctuations [3] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures showed a weakly declining trend yesterday. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has landed and stabilized. The supply side has slightly reduced production due to pressure on coking profits. The demand side has seen a slight recovery in molten iron production after the New Year's Day. The inventory in ports and steel mills has increased, while that in coking plants has decreased. The overall inventory has increased slightly. The mainstream coking enterprises have initiated a price increase, but it has not been implemented, and the post - festival market is expected to be loose. It should be regarded as oscillating and bearish, with the range of 1600 - 1750 yuan. The arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke. Coking coal futures also showed a weakly declining trend. The supply side has seen an increase in daily production and better shipments but insufficient inventory reduction. The demand side has limited downstream replenishment demand before the Spring Festival. The inventory in mines, coking enterprises, and steel mills has increased, while that in coal - washing plants, ports, and border ports has decreased. The overall inventory has increased slightly. It should be regarded as oscillating and bearish, with the range of 1000 - 1150 yuan. The arbitrage strategy is also to go long on coking coal and short on coke [5] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - The main ferrosilicon contract oscillated weakly yesterday, with a continuous decline in open interest. The supply is stable at a low level, and most regions' production is flat compared to last week. The steel - making demand is expected to keep molten iron production stable before the festival, and the non - steel demand has weakened. The cost in Inner Mongolia may increase due to the expected electricity price adjustment. The overall situation is relatively healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 5500 - 5900 yuan. The main ferromanganese contract also oscillated weakly, with a gradual increase in open interest. The supply has decreased, and the production is at a historically low level. The demand is also weak, and the high inventory still suppresses the price. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 5800 - 6000 yuan [6] Summary of Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices have generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3280 yuan to 3260 yuan, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coil decreased by 16 yuan [1] Cost and Profit - The price of steel billet decreased by 20 yuan to 2930 yuan, and the profit of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased by 10 yuan to 27 yuan [1] Production - The daily average molten iron production was 228.1 tons, almost unchanged. The production of rebar increased by 9.3 tons to 199.6 tons, with a 4.9% increase, and the production of hot - rolled coil decreased by 2.9 tons to 305.4 tons, with a 1.0% decrease [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 10.1 tons to 1257.1 tons, with a 0.8% increase. The rebar inventory increased by 14.0 tons to 452.1 tons, with a 3.2% increase, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 4.6 tons to 357.8 tons, with a 1.3% decrease [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume decreased by 1.0 tons to 6.6 tons, with a 12.8% decrease. The apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 16.6 tons to 809.5 tons, with a 2.0% decrease [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of most iron ore varieties increased slightly, and the basis of the 05 - contract for some varieties decreased. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1.5 yuan to - 31.0 yuan, with a 5.1% decrease [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 129.7 tons to 2530.0 tons, with a 4.9% decrease, and the global shipment volume increased by 48.4 tons to 2978.3 tons, with a 1.7% increase [3] Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 228.1 tons, almost unchanged. The 45 - port daily average clearance volume decreased by 9.2 tons to 310.7 tons, with a 2.9% decrease [3] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 211.4 tons to 16766.53 tons, with a 1.3% increase, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 126.6 tons to 9388.8 tons, with a 1.4% increase [3] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - Coke and coking coal futures and spot prices generally decreased. For example, the 05 - contract price of coke decreased by 51 yuan to 1668 yuan, and the 05 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 43 yuan to 1117 yuan [5] Supply - The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 tons to 63.3 tons, with a 0.2% decrease, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2 tons to 46.9 tons, with a 0.4% increase. The raw coal production of sample mines decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, with a 0.3% decrease [5] Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 228.1 tons, almost unchanged. The demand for coke mainly comes from the molten iron production [5] Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 18.9 tons to 939.2 tons, with a 2.1% increase. The coking coal inventory in mines, coking enterprises, and steel mills increased, while that in coal - washing plants, ports, and border ports decreased [5] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Price and Spread - The main contract prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly. The SF - SM main spread decreased by 14 yuan to - 214 yuan [6] Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased slightly, and the production profit decreased. The manganese ore prices in Tianjin Port were relatively stable [6] Supply - The production of ferrosilicon was stable at a low level, and the production of ferromanganese decreased slightly. The manganese ore shipment volume increased by 5.2 tons to 77.7 tons, with a 7.2% increase [6] Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in steel - making is expected to keep molten iron production stable before the festival. The non - steel demand for ferrosilicon has weakened [6] Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises increased by 0.3 tons to 6.7 tons, with a 5.4% increase, and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises was stable [6]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term market fundamentals of cotton have limited drivers, and prices fluctuate with market sentiment, likely to continue the range - bound trend. The lower space is relatively limited, and it is mainly regarded as a short - term adjustment [1] - In the context of the production peak of the northern hemisphere's main producing countries and the expected increase in production, the short - term fundamentals of the international sugar market have limited changes. Without other factors, it is expected to continue to oscillate in the range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound [1] - After another round of decline, the market is gradually approaching the crushing cost of southern sugarcane mills. The cost of out - of - quota imported sugar currently has little difference from the futures price, and the downward space is gradually narrowing [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - Xinjiang cotton inventory is decreasing, processing enterprises are actively selling, and the spot basis is firm. Downstream cotton yarn varieties continue to show differentiation, with stable orders for medium - and high - count yarns and weak operation of low - count yarns [1] - Cotton enterprises have relatively abundant inventory and actively quote for promotion. Spinning enterprises increase point - price purchases when prices fall and reduce transactions when prices rise. The pre - Spring Festival restocking is in the final stage, and local transactions have slightly increased [1] Sugar - Brazil exported 1.7376 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of January 2026, with a daily average export volume of 108,600 tons. In January 2025, Brazil's sugar export volume was 2.0622 million tons, with a daily average export volume of 93,700 tons [1] - The estimated cost of processing and paying taxes for in - quota Brazilian sugar is 3,997 yuan per ton, and that for out - of - quota Brazilian sugar is 5,077 yuan per ton. Compared with the spot price of Rizhao white sugar, the estimated profit for in - quota Brazilian sugar is 1,443 yuan per ton, and that for out - of - quota Brazilian sugar is 363 yuan per ton [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, with the expected production increase in Venezuela and the normalization of low - intensity frictions between the US and Iran, there is a bottom support for oil prices. It is cost - effective to go long when the price is around the shale oil break - even point in the medium - to - long term [3] - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and its future pattern will improve marginally. Although there is short - term downward pressure, it is feasible to go long at low prices due to geopolitical expectations in Iran [5] - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short [7] - For rubber, with the overall rise in commodities, but the seasonal weakness of rubber, it is recommended to trade with a neutral mindset, short - term trading on the disk. Short - sell if RU2605 falls below 16000, and partially build a position for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [10][13] - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the fundamental situation is poor. In the short term, it is supported by electricity price expectations, export rush, and strong commodity sentiment. In the medium term, the strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [15][17] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and it is advisable to gradually take profits [19][20] - For polyethylene, the futures price has risen. The price of crude oil may have bottomed out, and the downward valuation space of PE remains. It is in the seasonal off - season, and the overall demand is weakening [22][23] - For polypropylene, the futures price has risen. The supply - surplus situation may ease, and it is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [24][26] - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, there are opportunities to go long following the trend of crude oil [27][28] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short term, and there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the medium term [29][32] - For ethylene glycol, the industry is facing high - inventory and high - production pressure. The valuation needs to be compressed in the medium term, and significant production cuts are needed to improve the supply - demand pattern [33][34] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 17.90 yuan/barrel, a 4.07% increase, closing at 457.30 yuan/barrel; related refined oil main futures, high - sulfur fuel oil rose 178.00 yuan/ton, a 6.81% increase, closing at 2791.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 108.00 yuan/ton, a 3.49% increase, closing at 3206.00 yuan/ton. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.23 million barrels to 11.48 million barrels, a 2.00% decrease; diesel inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 15.41 million barrels, a 2.84% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.37 million barrels to 7.11 million barrels, a 5.56% increase; naphtha inventory decreased by 0.27 million barrels to 5.92 million barrels, a 4.36% decrease; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 0.21 million barrels to 7.83 million barrels, a 2.79% increase; the overall refined oil inventory increased by 0.51 million barrels to 47.76 million barrels, a 1.08% increase [2][3] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Venezuela's oil production is expected to increase gradually. The situation between the US and Iran will enter a state of low - intensity friction normalization. There is a bottom support for oil prices, and it is cost - effective to go long around the shale oil break - even point in the medium - to - long term [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: The spot price in Jiangsu changed by 25 yuan/ton, in Lunan by - 17.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 77.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2347 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 148 yuan [5] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation is low, and the future pattern will improve marginally. It is feasible to go long at low prices due to geopolitical expectations in Iran [5] Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 3 yuan/ton, closing at 1791 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 51 yuan/ton [7] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: Commodities and chemicals rose overall, and rubber prices rebounded. The sharp rise in butadiene rubber may be due to macro funds' large - scale allocation of chemical longs, the expected increase in naphtha and butadiene costs due to the naphtha consumption tax policy, and the increase in butadiene exports due to spot demand in South Korea. The port inventory decreased significantly. The long and short sides have different views on natural rubber. The long side believes that rubber production in Southeast Asia may be limited, and there is an expected improvement in demand in China; the short side believes that the macro - economic outlook is uncertain, and supply is increasing while demand is in the seasonal off - season. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises' all - steel tires was 62.84%, 2.30 percentage points higher than last week and 2.78 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises' semi - steel tires was 74.35%, 6.35 percentage points higher than last week and 4.09 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of January 11, 2026, China's total natural rubber social inventory was 125.6 tons, a 1.9% increase from the previous period [10][11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the overall rise in commodities but the seasonal weakness of rubber, it is recommended to trade with a neutral mindset, short - term trading on the disk. Short - sell if RU2605 falls below 16000, and partially build a position for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [13] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 72 yuan, closing at 4921 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4750 (+100) yuan/ton, the basis was - 209 (+62) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 117 (- 6) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2475 (- 25) yuan/ton, the price of semi - coke was 785 (- 35) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 705 (- 5) dollars/ton, and the price of caustic soda was 605 (- 17) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.7%, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80%, unchanged from the previous period; the ethylene method was 75.7%, a 3.1% decrease from the previous period. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.9%, a 1% increase from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 30.8 tons (- 0.3), and the social inventory was 117.8 tons (+3.3) [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the fundamental situation is poor. In the short term, it is supported by electricity price expectations, export rush, and strong commodity sentiment. In the medium term, the strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [16][17] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6010 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan increase; the closing price of the active contract was 6078 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan increase; the basis of pure benzene was - 68 yuan/ton, a 23 - yuan increase. The spot price of styrene was 7850 yuan/ton, a 150 - yuan increase; the closing price of the active contract was 7702 yuan/ton, a 6 - yuan decrease; the basis was 148 yuan/ton, a 156 - yuan increase. The BZN spread was 194.75 yuan/ton, a 9.75 - yuan increase; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was 119.6 yuan/ton, a 20.55 - yuan decrease; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 69.63%, a 1.23% decrease; the inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.71 tons to 9.35 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.40%, a 0.49% increase; the operating rate of PS was 57.30%, a 0.10% decrease, the operating rate of EPS was 58.71%, a 4.65% increase, and the operating rate of ABS was 66.80%, a 3.00% decrease [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and it is advisable to gradually take profits [20] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6935 yuan/ton, a 70 - yuan increase; the spot price was 6850 yuan/ton, a 75 - yuan increase; the basis was - 85 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons to 35.03 tons, and the trader inventory remained unchanged at 2.92 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 27 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan decrease [22] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of crude oil may have bottomed out. The downward valuation space of PE remains. It is in the seasonal off - season, and the overall demand is weakening [23] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6737 yuan/ton, an 81 - yuan increase; the spot price was 6600 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan increase; the basis was - 137 yuan/ton, a 56 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decrease. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.67 tons to 43.1 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.08 tons to 19.39 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.05 tons to 7.06 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 198 yuan/ton, an 11 - yuan decrease; the PP5 - 9 spread was - 41 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan decrease [24][25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - surplus situation may ease. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [26] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 118 yuan, closing at 7508 yuan. The PX CFR price rose 7 dollars, closing at 930 dollars. The basis was - 35 yuan (+34), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 108 yuan (+10). The operating rate in China was 88.9%, a 0.5% decrease; the Asian operating rate was 81%, a 0.4% increase. Zhejiang Petrochemical further reduced its load, Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and the South Korean GS plant restarted overseas. The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase. In the first and middle of January, South Korea's PX exports to China were 21.5 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8 tons. The inventory at the end of November was 446 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6 tons. The PXN was 358 dollars (+18), the South Korean PX - MX was 151 dollars (+5), and the naphtha crack spread was 86 dollars (- 14) [27] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, there are opportunities to go long following the trend of crude oil [28] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 150 yuan, closing at 5448 yuan. The East China spot price rose 65 yuan, closing at 5350 yuan. The basis was - 79 yuan (- 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 30 yuan (- 10). The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase. The downstream operating rate was 86.4%, a 1.9% decrease. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 6% to 49%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 16 was 204.5 tons, a 4 - ton increase from the previous period. The spot processing fee of PTA rose 34 yuan to 439 yuan, and the disk processing fee fell 19 yuan to 504 yuan [29] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short term, and there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the medium term [30][32] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 150 yuan, closing at 3997 yuan. The East China spot price rose 89 yuan, closing at 3887 yuan. The basis was - 120 yuan (- 2), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 97 yuan (- 14). The supply - side operating rate was 73%, a 1.4% decrease; among them, the synthetic gas - based operating rate was 79.4%, a 0.8% decrease; the ethylene - based operating rate was 69.5%, a 1.7% decrease. The downstream operating rate was 86.4%, a 1.9% decrease. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 6% to 49%. The import arrival forecast was 20.5 tons, and the East China departure volume from January 23 - 25 was 2 tons. The port inventory was 85.8 tons, a 6.3 - ton increase from the previous period. The naphtha - based profit was - 869 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 606 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 352 yuan. The price of ethylene fell to 705 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal fines fell to 530 yuan [33] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry is facing high - inventory and high - production pressure. The valuation needs to be compressed in the medium term, and significant production cuts are needed to improve the supply - demand pattern [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Aluminum: Macro funds' bullish sentiment on prices remains, but environmental controls and bad weather have slowed the inventory accumulation mid - week. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong at high levels in the short term. Attention should be paid to the development of macro events and downstream feedback [12]. - Zinc: Affected by the volatility of non - ferrous metals, zinc prices are relatively strong. In the medium - and long - term, the supply increase exerts pressure on the upside, but it will take time to materialize. Zinc prices will run at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - risk events and inventory trends at home and abroad [14]. - Tin: Tin prices are at a high level, and it is advisable to avoid participation in the short term [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: It will fluctuate in a high - level range, with a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality". Policy expectations and supply disruptions support the price bottom [16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01 Colorful Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The report shows the closing prices, weekly changes, and weekly price changes of the main futures contracts and spot prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, and nickel from January 16th to January 23rd, 2026. For example, the main copper futures contract (CU2603) rose 0.57%, while the average copper spot price in Shanghai Wumaohu decreased 0.80% [9]. 3.2 02 This Week's Non - Ferrous Market Forecast - **Aluminum**: Macro factors such as geopolitical frictions and tariff uncertainties put pressure on the US dollar. On the fundamental side, some northern mining areas have staged production cuts due to weather, and the domestic ore price is expected to remain stable. The overall aluminum processing industry shows a pattern of stable operation with local fluctuations. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong at high levels in the short term [12]. - **Zinc**: SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average price remained flat, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased. The supply of domestic zinc concentrates continues to weaken, and the overall supply - demand pattern in February is expected to remain unchanged. The galvanizing industry shows a "first - up - then - down" trend. Zinc prices will run at a high level in the short term [14]. - **Tin**: In December 2025, China's tin concentrate imports increased. The smelting plants in Yunnan and Jiangxi are operating at a high level, but there is limited room for further improvement. The demand is stable, and the market is optimistic about the semiconductor and new - energy vehicle industries after the festival. Tin prices are at a high level, and short - term participation should be avoided [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Last week, the lithium carbonate market rose strongly. The supply side is contracting comprehensively, the demand side has kinetic energy conversion and prominent structural contradictions, the inventory structure has deteriorated significantly, and the profit structure has prominent contradictions. It will fluctuate in a high - level range, with a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality" [16]. 3.3 03 Variety Data 3.3.1 Aluminum - **Bauxite**: The prices of domestic high - and low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week; the average price index of imported bauxite decreased. The port arrival volume increased, while the departure volume decreased [21][24]. - **Alumina**: The domestic price in Henan decreased, the full cost decreased, and the profit in Shanxi increased [27]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The total cost decreased, and the regional price difference increased. The downstream processing industry's overall operating rate showed a mixed trend, with some rising and some remaining stable. The inventory in the bonded area decreased, the social inventory increased, and the inventory in the futures exchange also changed [29][36][41]. - **Spot and Basis**: The basis of SMM A00 aluminum decreased week - on - week, and the monthly spread also changed [47][48]. 3.3.2 Zinc - **Zinc Concentrate**: The price of domestic zinc concentrate decreased, the domestic processing fee remained unchanged, and the imported processing fee decreased. The enterprise production profit decreased, the import loss increased, and the imported zinc concentrate inventory in Lianyungang increased [57][60]. - **Refined Zinc**: The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased, the bonded area inventory remained unchanged, the inventory in the futures exchange changed [63]. - **Galvanizing**: The output and operating rate increased, and the raw material and finished - product inventories increased [67]. - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: The basis of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased, and the monthly spread changed [71][75]. 3.3.3 Tin - **Refined Tin**: The combined output and operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces increased [82]. - **Tin Ingot Inventory**: The SHFE tin ingot inventory and the Chinese regional social inventory increased [85]. - **Tin Concentrate Processing Fee**: The processing fees in different regions remained unchanged week - on - week and increased year - on - year [88]. - **Tin Ore Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss level increased [89]. - **Spot Price**: The average prices in different regions increased [95]. 3.3.4 Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main contract increased, the trading volume decreased, the open interest increased, and the basis decreased significantly [98]. - **Supply Side**: The overall operating rate and output decreased, with significant declines in the lithium - spodumene and recycling - material routes [100][105]. - **Demand Side**: The cathode material industry generally increased production and accumulated inventory, and the demand transmission was blocked. The total demand on the terminal side was under pressure, but energy storage showed strong performance [113][118]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory decreased slightly, the smelters and downstream accumulated inventory, and the social inventory increased [119]. - **Cost and Profit**: The raw - material market showed a differentiated trend, with overseas lithium - spodumene prices rising slightly and domestic lithium - ore prices generally falling back. The production and import profits were differentiated, and the delivery profit improved but was still under pressure [126][129].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel prices maintain a sideways trend, with rebar slightly stronger than hot - rolled coils, and the spread between coils and rebar has converged to 160 yuan per ton. The steel industry has weak supply and demand. Rebar demand declines seasonally, with a large supply - demand gap and obvious inventory accumulation; hot - rolled coil demand declines slightly and inventory continues to be depleted. The market sentiment has improved in the second half, and steel is expected to fluctuate towards the upper limit of the range. The 5 - month contract of rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3050 - 3250 yuan, and hot - rolled coils between 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is facing a pattern of weak supply and demand. With the possible easing of the negotiation deadlock, lower - than - expected hot - metal production resumption, and the gradual realization of steel - mill restocking, prices are under pressure. Be cautious of macro - level fluctuations [3]. Coke - The coke futures showed a trend of first falling and then rising last week. The spot market is currently stable. Supply - side price adjustments lag behind coking coal, and coking profits are under pressure. Demand - side steel - mill production has resumed slightly after the New Year's Day. Inventory has increased slightly. After the fourth round of spot price cuts, some coke enterprises are resisting price cuts and starting to raise prices, which is expected to be implemented. The market is expected to be loose again, and prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 1600 - 1800 yuan [5]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures also showed a trend of first falling and then rising last week. The spot auction prices in Shanxi mostly increased, and the Mongolian coal quotation followed the futures down. The supply side has resumed production, and the demand side has low - level hot - metal production and weakening coking profits. The overall inventory has increased slightly. Before the Spring Festival, the spot is strong due to restocking demand, but the futures have over - anticipated the rise. After the festival, the market is expected to be loose, and prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 1000 - 1200 yuan [5]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Supply is stable, and production is at a historically low level. The non - steel demand is weakening. The overall inventory is moderately high. The cost is affected by the manganese ore restocking. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate widely within the range of 5500 - 5900 yuan [6]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese supply is relatively stable with a low absolute value. The demand is affected by the slow resumption of hot - metal production. The manganese ore supply and port inventory have an impact on the cost. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within the range of 5600 - 6000 yuan [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions have different changes, with some rising and some remaining stable. The basis and spreads of different contracts also vary [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices have different changes. The costs of electric - furnace and converter rebar in different regions also change, and the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions decline to varying degrees [1]. Production - The daily average hot - metal output and the output of five major steel products are basically stable. Rebar production increases by 4.9%, with converter production increasing by 6.3% and electric - furnace production decreasing by 2.0%. Hot - rolled coil production decreases by 1.0% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increases by 0.8%, with rebar inventory increasing by 3.2% and hot - rolled coil inventory decreasing by 1.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material transactions increase by 8.9%, while the apparent demand for five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coils decreases [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders increase by about 0.9%, and the basis of the 05 - contract for different powders decreases slightly. The 5 - 9 spread increases by 2.9%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreases by 3.4% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port increase by about 0.8% - 0.9%, and the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price increases slightly [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume and global shipment volume decline, while the national monthly import volume increases by 8.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is basically stable, the 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume decreases by 2.9%, and the national monthly pig - iron and crude - steel production decline [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory and the imported - ore inventory of 247 steel mills increase, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increase by 9.5% [3]. Coke Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remain stable, while the 05 and 09 - contract prices increase. The coking profit (weekly) of the Steel Union declines [5]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remains stable, and the price of Mongolian coking coal (warehouse - receipt) increases by 0.4%. The overseas coal prices of some varieties increase [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreases slightly, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increases slightly [5]. Demand - The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increases slightly [5]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increases by 2.1%, with the inventory of coking plants decreasing and the inventory of steel mills and ports increasing [5]. Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap remains basically unchanged [5]. Coking Coal Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remains stable, and the 05 and 09 - contract prices increase. The sample coal - mine profit (weekly) increases [5]. Supply - The raw - coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreases slightly, and the coking - coal product output decreases slightly [5]. Demand - The coke output of all - sample coking plants decreases slightly, and the coke output of 247 steel mills increases slightly [5]. Inventory Changes - The coking - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreases, while the inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports changes in different directions [5]. Ferrosilicon Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increases, and the spot prices of some regions increase slightly [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in some regions changes slightly, and the production profit in some regions improves [6]. Supply - The ferrosilicon product output (weekly) decreases slightly, and the operating rate of production enterprises decreases slightly [6]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand (weekly) calculated by the Steel Union increases slightly [6]. Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increases by 5.4%, and the average available days of downstream ferrosilicon decrease [6]. Silicomanganese Silicomanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the silicomanganese main contract increases, and the spot prices in most regions remain stable [6]. Cost and Profit - The manganese - ore prices of some varieties at Tianjin Port remain stable [6]. Supply - The silicomanganese weekly output increases slightly, and the operating rate increases slightly [6]. Demand - The silicomanganese demand calculated by the Steel Union increases slightly [6]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises remains basically unchanged, and the average available days of inventory decrease [6].