Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a significant correction on Tuesday, with the TMT sector rising against the trend and the pro-cyclical sectors experiencing a collective decline. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach [2][3]. - The bond market showed a narrow - range oscillation. The central bank's net investment may increase, but if the net investment is less than expected, the tightness of the capital market may continue this week. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations for long - term bonds [5][7]. - The precious metals market showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. In the medium and long term, it is expected to drive the precious metals market to reproduce a bull market similar to that in the 1970s. It is recommended to buy on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options [9]. - The shipping index (European line) showed a downward trend in shock. It is expected to continue the shock pattern in the short term and rise in shock in the short term [11][12]. - The copper market showed a shock operation. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the gradual upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices. It is recommended to focus on the marginal changes in the demand side and overseas interest - rate cut expectations [12][16]. - The alumina market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to focus on whether the production reduction of high - cost enterprises can reverse the supply - demand pattern [17][19]. - The aluminum market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to focus on the changes in downstream start - up, inventory depletion rhythm, and overseas policies [21][22]. - The aluminum alloy market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to focus on the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, changes in downstream procurement rhythm, and inventory depletion process [22][24]. - The zinc market showed a shock adjustment. It is recommended to focus on whether there is an improvement in demand and interest - rate cut expectations [24][27]. - The tin market showed a high - level shock. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy on dips [27][31]. - The nickel market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to focus on macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [31][33]. - The stainless - steel market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to focus on the production reduction of steel mills and the price of nickel iron [34][37]. - The lithium carbonate market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [38][41]. - The polysilicon market showed a high - level shock. It is recommended to focus on the support of spot prices and the digestion of warehouse receipts [42][43]. - The industrial silicon market showed a small - range shock. It is recommended to focus on the implementation of organic silicon production reduction [44][45]. - The steel market showed a weak trend. It is recommended to try short positions. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge [46][48]. - The iron ore market showed a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see [49][50]. - The coking coal market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to wait and see [51][53]. - The coke market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to wait and see [55][56]. - The meal market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [57][60]. - The pig market showed a sign of stabilization. It is recommended to wait and see [61]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: The A - share market showed a significant correction on Tuesday. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly. The TMT sector rose against the trend, and the pro - cyclical sectors declined significantly [2][3]. - News: Domestically, China protested against Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan. Overseas, the Bank of Japan discussed economic and monetary policies with the prime minister [3]. - Capital: The trading volume of the A - share market was stable, and the central bank had a net investment of 37 billion yuan [3]. - Operation suggestion: Wait for the market to stabilize and mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. If there is a deep decline, consider a bull spread of put options [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: The main contracts of treasury futures all rose, and the yield of major interest - bearing bonds changed little [5]. - Capital: The central bank had a net investment of 37 billion yuan, and the inter - bank market liquidity was tight [5]. - Operation suggestion: Conduct range - bound operations in the short term [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: The US labor market remained resilient, and the US Treasury announced relevant data. The US stock market fell, and precious metals bottomed out and rebounded [8][9]. - Outlook: In the medium and long term, it is expected to drive the precious metals market to reproduce a bull market similar to that in the 1970s. It is recommended to buy on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options [9]. - Capital: The outflow trend of gold and silver ETFs may gradually weaken [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - Shipping index: As of November 17, the SCFIS European line index and the US - West route index both declined [11]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US was different [12]. - Logic: The futures market showed a downward trend in shock. It is expected to continue the shock pattern in the short term [12]. - Operation suggestion: Rise in shock in the short term [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: The price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the market trading atmosphere was average [12]. - Macro: The US government shutdown affected the market liquidity and the Fed's interest - rate cut decision [13]. - Supply: The copper concentrate TC was at a low level, and the production of electrolytic copper decreased in October [14]. - Demand: The operating rate of copper rod processing increased, and the downstream demand was resilient [15]. - Inventory: The LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while the domestic social inventory decreased [15]. - Logic: The macro situation and fundamentals support the copper price. It is recommended to focus on the marginal changes in demand and overseas interest - rate cut expectations [16][17]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 85,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - Spot: The price of alumina decreased, and the supply pattern was gradually relaxed [17]. - Supply: The production of alumina increased in October, and it is expected to continue to be in a surplus situation in November [18]. - Inventory: The inventory of alumina increased [18]. - Logic: The market is in a state of supply - demand relaxation, and the price is expected to continue to be weak and volatile [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [19]. Aluminum - Spot: The price of aluminum decreased, and the market trading was inactive [19]. - Supply: The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in October, and it is expected to decrease slightly in November [20]. - Demand: The operating rate of aluminum products decreased, and the demand was under pressure [22]. - Inventory: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was difficult to deplete [22]. - Logic: The aluminum price will fluctuate between macro - positive factors and weak fundamentals. It is recommended to focus on downstream start - up, inventory depletion, and overseas policies [21][22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 21,200 - 21,800 yuan/ton [22]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: The price of aluminum alloy decreased [22]. - Supply: The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased in October, and it is expected to continue to decline in November [23]. - Demand: The demand for aluminum alloy was weak, and the inventory digestion was slow [23]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy decreased slightly [23]. - Logic: The price of ADC12 will remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to focus on scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement, and inventory depletion [24]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton [24]. Zinc - Spot: The price of zinc decreased, and the downstream demand was weak [24]. - Supply: The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the supply pressure of refined zinc was relieved [25]. - Demand: The operating rate of primary processing industries was basically stable, and the demand was not strong [26]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory decreased, and the LME inventory increased [26]. - Logic: The supply - demand situation is stable, and the zinc price will fluctuate. It is recommended to focus on demand improvement and interest - rate cut expectations [27]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [27]. Tin - Spot: The price of tin decreased slightly, and the market trading was average [27]. - Supply: The import of tin ore and tin ingots decreased in September, and the supply was still tight [28]. - Demand and inventory: The operating rate of solder decreased in October, and the inventory increased slightly [29]. - Logic: The supply is tight, and the demand in South China is resilient. It is recommended to buy on dips [31]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a low - buying strategy on dips [31]. Nickel - Spot: The price of nickel decreased significantly [31]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel decreased in October, but it was still at a high level [31]. - Demand: The demand for nickel in electroplating and alloys was stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate was weak [32]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory was high, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly [32]. - Logic: The market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price was under pressure. It is recommended to focus on macro - expectations and Indonesian policies [33]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton [33]. Stainless Steel - Spot: The price of stainless steel was stable, and the market trading was inactive [34]. - Raw materials: The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron decreased [34]. - Supply: The production of stainless steel decreased in November, and the supply pressure was still there [35][36]. - Inventory: The social inventory increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [36]. - Logic: The policy and macro - driving forces were insufficient, and the price was expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to focus on steel mill production reduction and nickel iron price [37]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton [38]. Carbonate Lithium - Spot: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the market trading was light [38]. - Supply: The production of lithium carbonate increased in October, and it is expected to continue to increase [39]. - Demand: The demand for lithium carbonate was optimistic, and the inventory decreased [39][40]. - Logic: The price fluctuated in a high - level range. It is recommended to focus on the resumption of production of large enterprises and the marginal changes in demand [41]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [42]. Polysilicon - Spot price: The price of polysilicon was stable [42]. - Supply: The production of polysilicon is expected to decrease in November and increase slightly in December [42]. - Demand: The downstream demand is expected to decline, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [43]. - Inventory: The inventory of polysilicon increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [43]. - Logic: The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. It is recommended to focus on the support of spot prices and the digestion of warehouse receipts [43]. - Operation suggestion: The price is expected to be in a high - level shock [44]. Industrial Silicon - Spot price: The price of industrial silicon was stable [44]. - Supply: The production of industrial silicon is expected to decrease in November [44]. - Demand: The demand for industrial silicon is expected to decline, and the inventory decreased [44][45]. - Logic: The price is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range. It is recommended to focus on the implementation of organic silicon production reduction [45]. - Operation suggestion: The price is expected to operate between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [45]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price was stable, and the basis weakened [46]. - Cost and profit: The cost of iron elements had weak support, and the cost of carbon elements had support. The profit of cold - rolled coils was the highest [46]. - Supply: The production of iron elements increased, and the production of five major steel products decreased [46]. - Demand: The domestic demand was weak, and the export was at a high level. The apparent demand decreased [47]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils needed to be further reduced [48]. - View: The price of steel was stable, and the price of coking coal decreased. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge. It is not recommended to go long [48]. Iron Ore - Spot: The price of mainstream iron ore powder increased slightly [49]. - Futures: The price of iron ore futures increased, and the 1 - 5 spread strengthened [49]. - Basis: The optimal delivery product was Carajás fines, and the basis of different varieties was different [49]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal increased, and the demand for iron ore was high [49]. - Supply: The global shipment of iron ore increased, and the arrival at ports decreased [50]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill inventory increased [50]. - View: The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [50]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: The price of coking coal futures decreased significantly, and the spot price also showed a downward trend [51]. - Supply: The production of coking coal increased slightly, and the import of Mongolian coal increased [51][53]. - Demand: The demand for coking coal decreased, and the steel mill's replenishment demand was weak [52][53]. - Inventory: The overall inventory increased slightly [52]. - View: The price of coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [53][54]. Coke - Futures and spot: The price of coke futures decreased, and the spot price was expected to be stable in the short term [55][56]. - Profit: The average profit of coking plants was negative [55]. - Supply: The production of coke decreased slightly [55]. - Demand: The demand for coke was affected by the increase in hot - metal output and the decrease in steel mill profit [56]. - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased slightly [56]. - View: The price of coke is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The price of soybean meal was stable, and the trading volume decreased. The price of rapeseed meal was up and down, and there was no transaction [57][58]. - Fundamentals: The US soybean crushing volume in October exceeded expectations, and the export inspection volume was at the lower end of the expected range. China purchased US soybeans [58][59]. - Outlook: The US soybean demand improved, but the export demand was still weak. The domestic soybean meal supply was loose. It is expected to fluctuate widely [59][60]. Pig - Spot situation: The spot price of pigs oscillated, and there were signs of stabilization [61].

VC去库难度偏高，高库存压力或持续。成本端电石、乙烯价格支撑有限。短期V2601预计偏弱震荡，区间 预计在4490-4620附近。 免责声明 PVC产业日报 2025-11-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4520 | -81 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 904897 | 104133 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1462731 | 107190 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 1060264 | 63708 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 1318874 | 98864 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -258610 | -35156 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4610 | -10 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4531.92 | -16.54 | | | 华南:PVC: ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the lithium carbonate market continue to show a tight supply-demand balance, with total inventory declining for 13 consecutive weeks and the decline rate further expanding. The domestic production has continuously reached new highs, and the new production lines are ramping up to contribute to the increase. Currently, the price increase stimulates the production enthusiasm of manufacturers. However, the rapid consumption of spodumene raw material inventory limits the upside potential of production. The terminal market shows strong performance, and the optimistic demand expectation is difficult to be falsified. The orders in the power and energy storage markets are booming, and the production of lithium iron phosphate has repeatedly reached new highs, strongly supporting lithium carbonate. Currently, the market has strong expectations for energy storage, and related stocks have risen significantly. The market trading focuses on the demand side, and the impact of supply resumption is gradually weakening. In the short term, lithium carbonate is expected to remain strong, and it is advisable to go long on dips [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Overview - In October 2025 in China, the new social financing was 810 billion yuan, and the new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan. The M2 - M1 gap at the end of October was 2.0 percentage points, wider than 1.2 percentage points in the previous month. The national industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year (previous value: 6.5%), social retail consumption increased by 2.9% year - on - year (previous value: 3%), the national real estate development investment from January to October was - 14.7% (previous value: - 13.9%), and the urban fixed - asset investment increased by - 1.7% year - on - year (previous value: - 0.5%). The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown and starting a "long restart." Fed officials signaled a hawkish stance before the release of important economic data, reducing the probability of a rate cut in December, and risk assets adjusted collectively [3] Supply Side - This week, the lithium carbonate production continued to increase, with the weekly production remaining above 23,000 tons and reaching a new high for the year. The newly put - into - production capacity continued to ramp up, and the average industry operating rate rebounded to over 52%. In October 2025, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 56% increase from the previous month, and 16,200 tons were exported to China [3] Demand Side - According to the data released by the Passenger Car Association, from November 1st to 9th, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 265,000 units, a 5% decrease compared to the same period in November last year and a 16% increase compared to the same period in the previous month. The new - energy penetration rate was 64%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 10.415 million units, a 21% increase year - on - year. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers was 306,000 units, a 3% decrease compared to the same period in November last year and a 59% increase compared to the same period in the previous month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year reached 12.362 million units, a 29% increase year - on - year [4] Cost and Profit - This week, the prices of lithium ore increased. The price of African SC 5% lithium ore was quoted at $730 per ton, a $100 increase from last week. The CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was $1,060 per ton, a $120 increase from last week. The market price of lithium mica was 3,075 yuan per ton, a 300 - yuan increase from last week. The cost of the lithium carbonate industry was 73,646 yuan per ton, a 2,476 - yuan increase from last week, and the profit was 10,704 yuan per ton, a 1,800 - yuan increase [4] Total Inventory - As of November 14th, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 120,472 tons, a decrease of 3,481 tons from last week. Among them, the inventory of upstream smelters was 28,270 tons, a decrease of 2,446 tons [5] Market Performance - As of November 14th, LC2601 closed at 87,360 yuan per ton, a 6.1% increase from last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 87,000 yuan per ton, an 8.4% increase from last week. The basis discount widened, and the position of the main contract was 517,000 lots. This week, the main contract reached a new high for the year, approaching the 90,000 - yuan mark. On Monday, the position increased by 40,000 lots, and the weighted position approached 1 million lots, with continuous increase in market attention [7] Production Status - As of November 14th, the lithium carbonate production was 23,850 tons, a 385 - ton increase from last week. The enterprise operating rate was 52.37%, a 0.84% increase from last week. This week, the production continued to increase slightly. The price increase stimulated the production enthusiasm of manufacturers, and the operating rates of some enterprises increased. The newly put - into - production capacity was ramping up steadily, the production of lithium carbonate from mica was gradually increasing, and the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene was restricted by raw material supply [9] - As of November 14th, the lithium hydroxide production was 6,520 tons, a 65 - ton increase from last week. The enterprise operating rate was 37.09%, a 0.37% increase from last week. This week, the lithium hydroxide production remained stable, and the operating rate was at a low level. Some production lines switched to lithium carbonate production, leading to a structural adjustment. Downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand, dominated by small - batch orders [11] - As of November 14th, the lithium iron phosphate production was 99,906 tons, a 3,050 - ton increase from last week. The enterprise operating rate was 87.92%, a 2.68% increase from last week. This week, the lithium iron phosphate production continued to reach new highs, and the industry operating rate was close to 90%. The situation of strong supply and demand continued, especially the high - density lithium iron phosphate was in short supply. Downstream battery cell manufacturers maintained full production and sales, and material manufacturers had sufficient orders [13] Inventory Status - As of November 13th, the total inventory of the lithium carbonate industry was 120,472 tons, a decrease of 3,841 tons from last week. The warehouse receipt inventory was 27,170 tons, a decrease of 162 tons from last week. The inventory decline rate of lithium carbonate continued to increase, and the inventory level of smelters was less than 30,000 tons, lower than the same period last year. However, the inventory in the trader segment increased slightly. The warehouse receipts remained at a low level, and the warehouse receipts in November faced centralized cancellation [32] - As of November 14th, the total inventory of the lithium iron phosphate industry was 39,732 tons, a 400 - ton decrease from last week. This week, the finished - product inventory of lithium iron phosphate continued to decline. The continuous release of market demand drove the digestion of inventory. Downstream battery cell manufacturers had high capacity utilization rates. Lithium iron phosphate enterprises mainly fulfilled orders, with concentrated production scheduling, and the inventory maintained a downward trend [35] Cost and Profit Status - As of November 14th, the production cost of lithium carbonate was 73,646 yuan per ton, a 2,476 - yuan increase from last week, and the industry profit was 10,704 yuan per ton, a 1,800 - yuan increase. The price of lithium ore followed the fluctuations of lithium carbonate, and recently, the consumption rate of lithium ore was too fast. Mines gradually sold at high points, and the transaction price was at a premium to the futures price, further squeezing the processing fee. The profit of integrated smelters improved significantly [51] - As of November 14th, the production cost of lithium hydroxide was 66,639 yuan per ton, a 1,826 - yuan decrease from last week, and the industry profit was 9,986 yuan per ton, a 2,343 - yuan increase from last week. This week, the prices of lithium carbonate and spodumene were strong, driving a narrow increase in the price of lithium hydroxide. Downstream ternary material manufacturers maintained normal production rhythms, providing some support for the price. The inventory level continued to decline, and the industry maintained a slight profit [54] - As of November 14th, the production cost of lithium iron phosphate was 38,284 yuan per ton, a 1,607 - yuan increase from last week. The loss was 2,284 yuan per ton, a 178 - yuan decrease from last week. The increase in the price of lithium carbonate at the raw material end supported the cost of lithium iron phosphate. Due to the tight supply of high - density lithium iron phosphate products, the processing fees of newly signed orders increased, and the industry's loss was slightly reduced [58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the supply, demand, cost, profit, price, and spread of logs. It indicates that the supply - side pressure is decreasing, the demand remains weak with the approaching off - season and wood blue - stain period. The price is under pressure, and the market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance in the future [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Log Overview - **Supply - side**: In September 2025, the number of arriving ships was 16, and the arrival volume was 53.1 million cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs was about 200.13 million cubic meters, a 16.01% month - on - month increase. It is expected that the subsequent arrival will remain stable, and the supply - side pressure will decrease [7]. - **Demand and Inventory - side**: The weekly shipment volume and apparent demand show no significant improvement. The demand is weak, and the inventory is expected to fluctuate and adjust due to the weak demand despite the decrease in arrivals this week [9]. - **Price and Spread**: The outer - market quotation has a slight adjustment, the spot price is under pressure, and the wood - block price is stable. The spread is relatively stable, and the basis has certain support [11][13]. - **Cost and Profit**: The import cost of logs is expected to decline, and the import profit is decreasing [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The spot market price is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of the futures market are weakly oscillating, and it is expected to be under pressure in the short term [17]. 3.2 Part 2: Log Balance Sheet The report presents the weekly balance sheet of logs from June 6, 2025, to November 7, 2025, including arrival numbers, arrival volumes, daily shipment volumes, apparent demand, inventory by region and species, and the supply - demand difference [19]. 3.3 Part 3: Log Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: It includes the shipment volume of New Zealand logs, log imports, and imports by species [25][27][30]. - **Demand - side**: It involves the daily shipment volume of logs, the real - estate market, and downstream analysis such as wood - block price, profit, and downstream substitutes [34][36][41]. - **Inventory - side**: It includes inventory summaries, inventory by species, and inventory by region [58][60][66]. 3.4 Part 4: Cost and Profit - **Log Import Cost and Profit**: Analyzes the import cost and profit of logs [72]. - **Log Delivery Profit**: Analyzes the delivery profit of logs [77]. 3.5 Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis - **Log Outer - market Quotation**: Analyzes the outer - market quotation of logs [82]. - **Seasonality of Radiation Pine and Spruce Prices**: Presents the seasonal price trends of radiation pine and spruce [85]. - **Seasonality of Radiation Pine and Spruce Spreads**: Analyzes the seasonal spread trends of radiation pine and spruce [98]. - **Basis between Radiation Pine and LG**: Analyzes the basis between radiation pine and LG [104]. - **Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread of LG Main Contracts**: Presents the seasonal chart and inter - month spread of LG main contracts [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For precious metals, although central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center of precious metals in the long - term, the short - term is in an adjustment phase, and there is expected to be no strong driving force in November [3]. - For copper, when the copper price drops to around 85,000 yuan/ton, downstream enterprises' replenishment enthusiasm increases, and the price has strong support at this level. However, whether orders will continue to increase needs further observation, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient [17]. - For aluminum, the recent price increase is driven by speculative funds due to potential future supply - demand mismatches, but it contradicts the current fundamentals. The price of alumina may be weak in the short - term due to oversupply [37]. - For zinc, the TC in November has dropped significantly due to intense competition for ore at the smelting end. There is a possibility of inventory reduction in November, and the low inventory provides support for the price [60]. - For the nickel industry chain, the price of nickel ore may be supported during the rainy season in the Philippines. The new energy sector is in the peak season, but there is no upward driving force for prices. Nickel iron prices have been continuously lowered, and stainless steel spot sales are weak [76]. - For tin, the supply is weaker than demand, and the raw material problem at the supply end is difficult to solve in the short - term, so the Shanghai tin price will maintain a high - level shock [91]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply increment is stable, the demand is strong in November, and the price is likely to rise and difficult to fall, maintaining a shock - upward trend in the short - term [105]. - For the silicon industry chain, there is an expectation of production reduction at the industrial silicon supply end, and the demand has not improved. The fundamentals of polysilicon are still weak [116]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Trend**: The report presents the price trends of SHFE gold and silver futures, COMEX gold, and the gold - silver ratio [4]. - **Factor Analysis**: Analyzes the relationship between gold and the US dollar index, and the relationship between gold and the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds [8][15]. - **Inventory Situation**: Shows the inventory of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver [16]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper futures (main contract, continuous, etc.) and LME copper are provided [18]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaotong, etc., as well as the spot premium and discount data are presented [23]. - **Import and Processing**: The copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate TC, and copper refined - scrap price difference are given [28][32]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Inventory**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventory are provided [33][35]. Aluminum - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum futures, LME aluminum, and alumina futures are presented [39]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of East China aluminum, Foshan aluminum, etc., as well as the basis data are provided [46]. - **Inventory Situation**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts, LME aluminum inventory, and alumina warehouse receipts are given [54]. Zinc - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc futures and LME zinc are provided [61]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SMM 0 zinc and SMM 1 zinc, as well as the premium and discount data are presented [69]. - **Inventory Situation**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts and LME zinc inventory are given [73]. Nickel Industry Chain - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, changes, and trading volume of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures are provided [77]. - **Spot Data**: The average price of nickel spot is presented [82]. - **Downstream Situation**: The price and inventory of nickel ore, the profit rate of downstream products, and the price of nickel pig iron are analyzed [83][85][89]. Tin - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin futures and LME tin are provided [91]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots, 1 tin premium and discount, etc., are presented [96]. - **Inventory Situation**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai tin warehouse receipts and LME tin inventory are given [100]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures are provided [106]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, daily change rates, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of lithium - related products are presented [110]. - **Inventory Situation**: The latest data and changes of Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and lithium carbonate social inventory are given [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot and futures are provided [116][117]. - **Polysilicon and Downstream Products**: The prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are presented [122][123][124]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon in Xinjiang and Yunnan are given [129][141][144].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For the steel industry, the steel market is slightly stronger, with a decline in hot metal production, which is bearish for iron ore. Steel production has decreased, apparent demand has fallen, and inventory reduction has slowed. There is a negative feedback in the iron element chain, with the supply of iron elements expected to be weaker than that of carbon elements. For the 1 - month contract, pay attention to the support levels of 3000 for rebar and 3200 for hot - rolled coils. The long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage can continue to be held [2]. - For the iron ore industry, the iron ore futures showed a low - level oscillating trend. Supply increased while demand decreased, with high - level hot metal production falling back and steel mills' replenishment demand weakening. The steel price decline, hot metal reduction, and inventory increase continue to suppress iron ore. Unilateral short positions are recommended when the price is high, with the range referring to 750 - 800, and the long - coking coal and short - iron ore arbitrage is recommended [4][6]. - For the coke industry, the coke futures showed an oscillating rebound. The third round of price increases by mainstream coke enterprises was implemented, and there is still an expectation of further increases. However, the decline in hot metal production and weak steel prices put pressure on price increases. The inventory is slightly decreasing, and the demand and supply are tight. It is recommended to speculatively buy the coke 2601 contract at low prices (range: 1700 - 1850) and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [7]. - For the coking coal industry, the coking coal futures also showed an oscillating rebound. The domestic coking coal market is strong, but the supply is expected to increase slightly. The demand for replenishment has weakened. It is recommended to buy the coking coal 2601 contract at low prices in the short - term (range: 1250 - 1350) and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East, North, and South China all showed small changes. Futures contracts also had price increases, with the 01 contract rising by 13 yuan/ton[2]. - Hot - rolled coils: Spot prices in different regions remained stable, and futures contracts had small price increases, with the 01 contract rising by 3 yuan/ton[2]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price increased by 20 yuan/ton, while the slab price remained unchanged. Profits in different regions and for different production processes declined, with the East China hot - rolled coil profit dropping by 26 yuan/ton[2]. Output - The daily average hot metal output decreased by 2.1 tons (- 0.9%), and the output of the five major steel products decreased by 18.5 tons (- 2.1%)[2]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 10.2 tons (- 0.7%), the rebar inventory decreased by 10.0 tons (- 1.7%), and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 3.9 tons (0.9%)[2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 1.6 tons (17.4%), but the apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 49.5 tons (- 5.4%), and the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils also declined[2]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The cost of some iron ore warehouse receipts increased slightly, and the basis of some 01 contracts also changed. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0 yuan/ton (5.0%)[4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The prices of some iron ore varieties in Rizhao Port increased slightly, and the prices of iron ore swaps and indexes also had small increases[4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 1189.3 tons (58.6%) week - on - week, while the global shipment volume decreased by 174.6 tons (- 5.2%)[4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.1 tons (- 0.9%), and the 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume decreased by 16.2 tons (- 4.8%)[4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 171.6 tons (1.2%), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 229.3 tons (- 2.5%)[4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices increased, with the 01 contract rising by 24 yuan/ton (1.34%). The coking profit declined, with the weekly steel - union coking profit dropping by 11 yuan/ton[7]. Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal futures prices increased, with the 01 contract rising by 22 yuan/ton (1.7%). The sample coal mine profit increased by 34 yuan/ton (6.4%)[7]. Supply - The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.0 tons (- 1.5%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons (- 0.3%)[7]. Demand - The hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.1 tons (- 0.9%)[7]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased by 13.0 tons (- 1.4%), and the coking coal inventory showed a mixed trend, with an overall median increase[7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including stock index futures, Treasury bond futures, precious metals, shipping index futures, and multiple metal and agricultural product futures. It provides market conditions, influencing factors, and operation suggestions for each category, highlighting market trends and potential investment opportunities and risks in different sectors. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market condition: A-shares showed resilience, with major indices rebounding after an early decline. Most major contracts of the four stock index futures closed higher, and the basis discount of the main contracts widened. Power resource-related industries performed well, while technology sectors corrected [2][3]. - News: The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted tariff measures on US imports. Overseas, the Bank of Japan's meeting minutes indicated potential interest rate hikes [3][4]. - Capital: On November 5, the trading volume in the A-share market decreased slightly. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds [4]. - Operation suggestion: With unclear market directions and cold trading sentiment, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: Most Treasury bond futures closed lower, with minor changes in the yields of major interest rate bonds in the interbank market [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds. The interbank liquidity was loose, and the overnight repurchase rate remained stable [5][6]. - Operation suggestion: The upward trend of Treasury bond futures driven by the central bank's bond purchases has paused. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 10-year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB and consider positive arbitrage strategies [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: The US Supreme Court debated the legality of Trump's large-scale tariffs. US employment data improved slightly, and the government shutdown affected market liquidity [7][8]. - Market situation: Precious metals stopped falling and rebounded. Gold closed at $3,978.75 per ounce, up 1.21%, and silver closed above $48 per ounce, up 1.79% [9]. - Outlook: In the medium to long term, precious metals are expected to enter a bull market, but there may be a 2 - 3 month consolidation period after reaching new highs. Short-term gold is expected to trade between $3,900 - $4,030, and silver between $47 - $49 [9][10]. - Operation suggestion: Hold long positions at low levels and buy on dips [32]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Route) - Spot price: As of November 4, the freight quotes for Shanghai - Europe routes varied among different shipping companies [11]. - Shipping index: As of November 3, the SCFIS European route index decreased, while the US West route index increased. As of October 31, the SCFI composite index increased [11]. - Fundamentals: As of November 4, the global container shipping capacity increased year-on-year. The eurozone's October composite PMI was 52.2, and the US October manufacturing PMI was 48.7 [11]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated upward, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,800 - 2,000 points [12]. - Operation suggestion: Buy on dips for the December contract in the short term [12]. Commodity Futures - Non-ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of November 5, the average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the premium/discount showed mixed changes. Market sentiment was still cautious [12]. - Macro: The US dollar index strengthened, suppressing copper prices. The US October ISM manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the Trump tariff case was under review [13]. - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate remained low. In October, the production of electrolytic copper decreased, and it is expected to decline slightly in November [13]. - Demand: The downstream demand for copper showed strong resilience, with more purchase orders released after price corrections [14]. - Inventory: LME, COMEX, and domestic social inventories of copper increased [15]. - Logic: The short - term rise in copper prices may suppress demand, but the long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the price bottom. - Operation suggestion: Pay attention to the support at 84,000 and the resistance at 86,500 [16]. Aluminum Oxide - Spot: On November 5, the spot prices of aluminum oxide in different regions showed mixed trends, with a generally loose supply pattern and a weakening price [16]. - Supply: In October, the production of metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased year - on - year. The operating capacity decreased slightly, and it is expected to remain in a supply - surplus situation in November [17]. - Inventory: In October, the inventories of aluminum oxide at ports, factories, and electrolytic aluminum plants increased [17]. - Logic: The price of aluminum oxide is expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract trading between 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [18]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [18][19]. Aluminum - Spot: On November 5, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium/discount also declined, with limited actual transactions [20]. - Supply: In October, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio increased, and the operating capacity remained stable. It is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots may decline slightly in November [20]. - Demand: In the traditional peak season, the weekly operating rates of downstream aluminum processing products declined [20]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventories of aluminum ingots increased, while LME inventories decreased [21]. - Logic: The short - term price of aluminum will fluctuate between event - driven factors and weak fundamentals. Pay attention to the resistance at 21,500 yuan/ton [22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton [23]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On November 5, the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased, with weak spot trading [23]. - Supply: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the operating rate rose. It is expected that the operating rate will remain stable in October [23]. - Demand: In October, demand showed a mild recovery, but the transmission of terminal demand was not smooth, and high prices suppressed purchasing willingness [24]. - Inventory: In October, the social inventory of aluminum alloy increased slightly, and the registered warehouse receipts increased [24]. - Logic: The price of ADC12 is expected to remain strongly volatile, with the main contract trading between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton [25][26]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Consider arbitrage strategies [26]. Zinc - Spot: On November 5, the average price of zinc ingots decreased, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [26]. - Supply: The processing fees of domestic and imported zinc concentrates decreased. From January to October, the cumulative production of refined zinc increased. It is expected that the processing fees will continue to decline in November [27]. - Demand: The operating rates of primary zinc processing industries were generally stable, and overall demand showed no significant improvement [28]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventories of zinc decreased, while LME inventories remained stable [28]. - Logic: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but the fundamentals may limit further upward movement. It may continue to trade within a range [29]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 22,300 - 23,000 yuan/ton [29]. Tin - Spot: On November 5, the price of tin decreased, and the spot premium remained unchanged. The market transaction improved slightly [29]. - Supply: In September, domestic tin ore imports decreased, and tin ingot imports also declined. The supply from Myanmar showed signs of improvement [30]. - Demand: The demand for tin remained weak, with a decline in orders in the solder industry. Although some new fields drove tin consumption, it was not enough to make up for the shortfall [31][32]. - Inventory: LME inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [31]. - Logic: Considering the strong fundamentals, it is recommended to hold long positions at low levels and buy on dips. Pay attention to the supply recovery in Myanmar [32]. - Operation suggestion: Hold long positions at low levels and buy on dips [32]. Nickel - Spot: As of November 5, the average price of electrolytic nickel decreased, and the import price also declined [32]. - Supply: In the capacity expansion cycle, the production of refined nickel decreased slightly in October but remained at a high level [33]. - Demand: The demand from electroplating and alloy industries was stable, while the demand from stainless steel was average. The demand for nickel sulfate showed signs of improvement in the short term but faced challenges in the medium term [33]. - Inventory: LME inventories remained high, while domestic social inventories decreased slightly, and bonded area inventories declined [33]. - Logic: The nickel market is expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract trading between 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - level changes and Indonesian policies [34]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [34][35]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of November 5, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends, and the basis increased [36]. - Raw materials: The price of nickel ore remained firm, while the price of nickel iron decreased. The chromium iron market was weak, and the cost support declined [36]. - Supply: In September and October, the production of stainless steel increased. The production of the 300 - series remained at a high level [37]. - Inventory: Social inventories decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts declined [37]. - Logic: The stainless steel market is expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract trading between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - level changes and steel mill supply [38]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [38][39]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of November 5, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading volume was weak [39]. - Supply: In October, the production of lithium carbonate increased. Recently, the output of lithium carbonate from spodumene decreased slightly, while that from mica remained stable [40][42]. - Demand: The overall demand was optimistic, with an increase in production schedules in the iron - lithium and ternary sectors. Pay attention to the demand after November [40][42]. - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased, with a reduction in smelter and downstream inventories [41]. - Logic: The short - term fundamentals support the price, but the trading logic has shifted. The price is expected to fluctuate between 78,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [42]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 78,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [42][43]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price of steel was weak, and the basis strengthened [43]. - Cost and profit: The cost of iron elements had weak support, while the cost of carbon elements had support. Profits from high to low were billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [43]. - Supply: From January to September, the production of iron elements increased. In October, the growth rate slowed down, and the output of the five major steel products increased slightly [43]. - Demand: Domestic demand expectations were weak, while exports remained high. The apparent demand for steel increased [44]. - Inventory: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased, and it is expected that the inventory center will increase year - on - year but decrease month - on - month [44]. - Viewpoint: The 1 - month contract has a loose supply of iron elements. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils [44]. Iron Ore - Spot: As of November 5, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders decreased [46]. - Futures: The main contract of iron ore increased slightly, while the far - month contract decreased. The 1 - 5 spread widened [47]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties was positive [48]. - Demand: The daily consumption of imported iron ore decreased, and the profitability of steel mills declined [49]. - Supply: Global iron ore shipments decreased, while the arrivals at 45 ports increased significantly [50]. - Inventory: Port inventories increased, the daily port clearance volume increased, and steel mill inventories decreased [51]. - Viewpoint: The iron ore market is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [52]. Coking Coal - Spot and futures: As of November 5, coking coal futures rebounded, and the prices of Shanxi and Mongolian coking coal were strong [53]. - Supply: The production of coking coal increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [54]. - Demand: The production of coke increased slightly, while the iron - making output decreased significantly. The demand for coking coal from steel mills weakened [55]. - Inventory: The overall inventory of coking coal decreased slightly, with inventory reductions in mines, ports, and washing plants, and inventory increases in coking plants and steel mills [55]. - Viewpoint: It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [55]. Coke - Spot and futures: As of November 5, coke futures rebounded, and the third round of price increases by mainstream coke enterprises was implemented [56]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was negative, but the loss narrowed after the price increase [56]. - Supply: The price of coking coal increased, providing cost support for coke. The production of coke increased slightly [57]. - Demand: Due to environmental restrictions, the iron - making output decreased, and the demand for coke from steel mills was suppressed [57]. - Inventory: The overall inventory of coke increased slightly, with inventory increases in coking plants and ports and inventory decreases in steel mills [57]. - Viewpoint: It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 on dips and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [58]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: On November 5, the prices of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased, and the trading volume of soybean meal increased [59]. - Fundamentals: The State Council adjusted tariff measures on US imports. Bangladesh agreed to purchase US soybeans, and the estimated soybean yield in the US was adjusted [59][60]. - Market outlook: The adjustment of tariffs on US imports boosted the prices of US soybeans and domestic futures. The cost support for domestic soybean meal has increased [60][61]. Live Pigs - Spot: The spot price of live pigs was weak, with a decline in prices in various regions [62]. - Market data: The profit of live pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly [62]. - Market outlook: The market supply is loose, and the pig price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse spread and operate with caution [63]. Corn - Spot price: On November 5, the prices of corn in Northeast China and North China showed different trends, with light market transactions [64]. - Fundamentals: The grain inventory in Guangzhou Port decreased slightly, while the corn inventory increased [64]. - Market outlook: The supply pressure remains, and the upward movement of the corn price is limited [64].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is in a state of high production and weak demand, with an expected increase in inventory in the future. The fundamentals are difficult to improve, but the valuation is at a relatively low level, and there may be positive macro - level news, so it is expected to show a short - term oscillatory trend. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around the previous low of 4644 and the pressure around the 20 - day moving average of 4812 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of PVC is 4719 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the trading volume is 535,541 lots, down 14,834 lots; the open interest is 1,194,995 lots, up 3,089 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 131,012 lots, up 1,096 lots [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price of ethylene - based PVC in East China is 4850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4613.08 yuan/ton, down 6.15 yuan. The price of ethylene - based PVC in South China is 4820 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4708.75 yuan/ton, up 1.25 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 690 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 650 dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 710 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 99 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China is 2690 yuan/ton, up 16.67 yuan; in Northwest China is 2530 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 49.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 524 dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia is 549 dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 183 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars; in Southeast Asia is 192 dollars/ton, down 9 dollars [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.69%, down 5.94 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 74.71%, down 8.23 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 81.26%, down 0.64 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 55.62 tons, down 0.08 tons; in East China is 50.48 tons, up 0.21 tons; in South China is 5.14 tons, down 0.29 tons [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The national real estate climate index is 92.78, down 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 45,399 million square meters, up 5,597.99 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6,485,800,000 square meters, up 5,471.06 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 316.9394 billion yuan, up 35.8801 billion yuan [3]. - **Option Market**: The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 9.74%, down 0.41 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.52%, down 0.15 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options is 15.05%, with the put option up 0.01 percentage points and the call option unchanged [3]. b. Industry News - From October 11th to 17th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese PVC was 76.69%, a significant decline compared to the previous period. The downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 9.38% to 48.59%, with the pipe operating rate increasing by 7.17% to 40% and the profile operating rate increasing by 17.39% to 33.26% [3]. - As of October 16th, the social inventory of PVC decreased by 0.24% to 1.0338 million tons compared to the previous week. The average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased to 5142 yuan/ton, and the national average cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased to 5432 yuan/ton. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to - 731 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased to - 552 yuan/ton [3]. c. Outlook - This week, many PVC plants are expected to restart, and the impact of newly shut - down plants is limited, so the capacity utilization rate of PVC is expected to return to a high level. In October, there are few maintenance plants and new production capacity is increasing, resulting in relatively high supply pressure [3]. - The real estate market remains weak, and downstream orders are poor. Downstream is expected to maintain just - in - time procurement. Affected by India's anti - dumping tax, the export market may remain on the sidelines. Due to the high - production and weak - demand situation of PVC, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the future [3]. - The calcium carbide - based process is deeply in the red, and chlor - alkali enterprises use caustic soda profits to offset chlorine losses. However, the supply of calcium carbide is abundant and the price is weak, so the cost - side support is limited [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak with downward - trending futures prices. Supply pressure persists, while demand is sluggish. Short - term spot prices are expected to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum prices maintained a high - level oscillation. The market trading atmosphere was weak. With a stable supply and resilient demand, short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [1]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price in range oscillation. Cost support was prominent. With supply constraints and mild demand recovery, short - term ADC12 prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract in the range of 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [3]. Zinc - Zinc prices oscillated. Supply is abundant, and the second - half production increase of domestic zinc smelters is limited. Short - term prices may rise due to macro - drivers but will likely oscillate, with the main contract in the range of 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton [6]. Copper - Copper prices oscillated. Macro factors and supply shortages support prices, while high prices suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the 84000 - 85000 support level [8]. Tin - Tin prices rebounded. Supply is tight, while demand is weak. Future price trends depend on the recovery of Burmese supply. If supply recovers well, prices may weaken; otherwise, they will likely oscillate at a high level [10]. Nickel - Nickel prices rose slightly. Macro risks increased, with cost support but inventory pressure. The mid - term supply is abundant, and the price is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 126000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices rose slightly. Macro factors are favorable, but demand is weak, and supply pressure exists. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 12400 - 12800 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures oscillated narrowly. After entering the peak season, supply - demand gaps remain. Short - term prices are expected to be strong, with the main contract in the range of 75000 - 78000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.19% to 20970 yuan/ton, while alumina prices in various regions declined [1]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21050 yuan/ton, and some scrap - refined spreads increased [3]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot rose 0.32% to 21940 yuan/ton [6]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose 0.12% to 85730 yuan/ton [8]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin rose 0.46% to 281300 yuan/ton [10]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 0.33% to 122500 yuan/ton [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 0.33% to 122500 yuan/ton, and 304/2B stainless steel prices increased slightly [12][15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 0.14% to 74100 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - **Aluminum**: In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [1]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: In September, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [3]. - **Zinc**: In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [6]. - **Copper**: In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [8]. - **Tin**: In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8714 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10510 tons [10]. - **Nickel**: In September, China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32200 tons, and imports decreased by 3.00% to 17010 tons [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: In September, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and imports increased by 2.70% to 12.03 million tons [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87260 tons, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116801 tons [17].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Steel and iron ore, which had significant declines in the previous period, showed signs of stabilization yesterday. Steel short positions were reduced, while iron ore positions continued to increase. - Although plate inventories have accumulated significantly, with appropriate production cuts by steel mills, the inventory is expected to turn to destocking. The reduction in hot-rolled coil production is not obvious, and the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar is expected to continue to converge. For single-side trading, it is advisable to wait and see for now. The January contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil are expected to stabilize around 3000 and 3200 yuan respectively [1]. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3190, 3120, and 3230 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, -10, and 0 yuan compared to the previous day. Rebar futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 were 3102, 3141, and 3049 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 12, 191, and 15 yuan [1]. - Hot-rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3280, 3190, and 3230 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, -10, and 0 yuan compared to the previous day. Hot-rolled coil futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 were 3233, 3254, and 3219 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 10, -356, and 7 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price was 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton, also unchanged. - The cost of Jiangsu electric furnace rebar decreased by 2 yuan to 3307 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 17 yuan to 3140 yuan/ton. - The profit of East China hot-rolled coil decreased by 4 yuan, and the profit of North China hot-rolled coil decreased by 14 yuan to -55 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output was 240.9 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons or 0.3% compared to the previous day. The output of the five major steel products was 857.0 tons, a decrease of 6.4 tons or 0.7% compared to the previous day. The rebar output was 201.2 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons or 1.1% compared to the previous day, among which the electric furnace output increased by 3.1 tons or 13.5%, and the converter output decreased by 5.4 tons or 3.0%. The hot-rolled coil output was 321.8 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons or 0.4% compared to the previous day [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products was 1582.3 tons, a decrease of 18.5 tons or 1.2% compared to the previous day. The rebar inventory was 641.1 tons, a decrease of 18.6 tons or 2.8% compared to the previous day. The hot-rolled coil inventory was 419.2 tons, an increase of 6.3 tons or 1.5% compared to the previous day [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 10.2 tons, an increase of 1.0 tons or 11.4% compared to the previous day. The apparent demand for the five major steel products was 875.4 tons, an increase of 124.0 tons or 16.5% compared to the previous day. The apparent demand for rebar was 219.8 tons, an increase of 66.6 tons or 43.5% compared to the previous day. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coil was 315.6 tons, an increase of 20.5 tons or 7.0% compared to the previous day [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The iron ore futures continued to fluctuate weakly yesterday. The supply and demand situation of iron ore is changing from balanced and tight to relatively loose. Due to the weak operation of steel prices, the profitability of steel mills continues to decline, and the weak demand side will force iron ore to operate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for single-side trading, with a reference range of 750 - 800. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [3]. Summary by Directory Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of Carajas fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines were 826.4, 824.9, 832.0, and 834.9 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 1.1, 3.3, 0.0, and 3.2 yuan compared to the previous day. - The 01 contract basis for Carajas fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines was 52.9, 51.4, 58.5, and 61.4 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 4.1, 6.3, 3.0, and 6.2 yuan compared to the previous day [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indices - The spot prices of Carajas fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines at Rizhao Port were 904.0, 778.0, 810.0, and 733.0 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, and 3.0 yuan compared to the previous day. - The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price was 105.7 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.2 dollars compared to the previous day, and the Platts 62% Fe price was 106.2 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports was 3045.8 tons, an increase of 437.1 tons or 16.8% compared to the previous week. The weekly global shipment volume was 3207.5 tons, a decrease of 71.5 tons or -2.2% compared to the previous week. The national monthly import volume was 10522.5 tons, an increase of 61.5 tons or 0.6% compared to the previous month [3]. Demand - The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 241.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons or -0.2% compared to the previous week. The weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports was 327.0 tons, a decrease of 9.4 tons or -2.8% compared to the previous week. The national monthly pig iron output was 6979.3 tons, a decrease of 100.5 tons or -1.4% compared to the previous month. The national monthly crude steel output was 7736.9 tons, a decrease of 229.0 tons or -2.9% compared to the previous month [3]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 61.6 tons or 0.4% compared to Monday of the previous week. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 9046.2 tons, a decrease of 990.6 tons or -9.9% compared to the previous week. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged at 21 days [3]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints Coke - Coke futures showed an oscillating upward trend yesterday. Recently, the spot and futures markets have not been in sync. After mainstream coke enterprises proposed a price increase once and then remained stable, port trade quotes rebounded. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1620 - 1770, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [5]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures also showed an oscillating upward trend yesterday. The spot auction prices in Shanxi recovered, and the prices of some coal types rebounded significantly, with Mongolian coal prices rising steadily. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices in the short term, with a reference range of 1120 - 1250, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [5]. Summary by Directory Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1561 and 1613 yuan/ton respectively. The coke 01 contract was 1673 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan or 1.9% compared to the previous day [5]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) and Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) were 1300 and 1247 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 30 and 41 yuan compared to the previous day. The coking coal 01 contract was 1186 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan or 3.0% compared to the previous day [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 65.3 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or -1.3% compared to October 10th. The daily average output of 247 steel mills was 241.5 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons or -0.1% compared to October 10th [5]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 241.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons or -0.2% compared to October 10th. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 65.3 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or -1.3% compared to October 10th [5]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory was 891.9 tons, a decrease of 17.9 tons or -2.0% compared to October 10th. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 57.3 tons, a decrease of 6.6 tons or -10.3% compared to October 10th. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 639.4 tons, a decrease of 11.4 tons or -1.7% compared to October 10th [5]. - The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines' clean coal was 100.5 tons, a decrease of 10.7 tons or -9.6% compared to October 10th. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 997.4 tons, an increase of 38.3 tons or 4.0% compared to October 10th [5].